ACUS11 KWNS 181121
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181120=20
TXZ000-181345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0490
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0620 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Areas affected...Southwest into north-central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 181120Z - 181345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and localized strong to severe gusts are
possible this morning.

DISCUSSION...Some increase in storm coverage and intensity has
recently been noted across parts of the TX Concho Valley and Big
Country, to the north of a southward-moving cold front. Elevated
convection is expected to continue moving east-northeastward to the
north of the boundary through the morning, as the favored storm
corridor gradually shifts southward with time in conjunction with
the front. MUCAPE of greater than 1000 J/kg will continue to favor
occasional robust updrafts. Rather strong mid/upper-level
southwesterly flow will support sufficient effective shear for at
least transient storm organization, and an elevated supercell or two
cannot be ruled out.=20

The favorable buoyancy and shear will result in potential for
isolated hail with the strongest cells. While convection will remain
elevated, strong to localized severe gusts may also occur, in
association with gravity-wave-related processes within the
post-frontal regime. At this time, the severe threat appears too
marginal and isolated for watch issuance.

..Dean/Smith.. 04/18/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Z3AuhImv7v33bX8u0eIBUDeKSx77ZiPNC2As8OakPbbz7fyYKdSsisYUog7aVUcNKgzR7z9x= pyi15BWpI0TNBgUox4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 31050220 32409988 33069782 33219701 33169627 31639618
30569904 30160099 30070198 30210217 30640230 31050220=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)