ACUS11 KWNS 172207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172206=20
WIZ000-180000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0481
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0506 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Areas affected...Central to northern Wisconsin

Concerning...Tornado Watch 129...

Valid 172206Z - 180000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 129 continues.

SUMMARY...A cluster of severe thunderstorms ahead of the primary
cold front will continue to pose a tornado threat for the next
couple of hours across central to northern Wisconsin. Additional
northward expansion may be needed.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of discrete to semi-discrete cells continues
to track across central to northern WI with at least two tornadoes
recently reported. Recent convective trends do not suggest that
upscale growth is imminent within the next hour or two.
Additionally, the downstream convective environment continues to
gradually improve given strengthening low-level flow (0-1 km winds
and SRH have both been strengthening off the KGRB VWP) and some
modest improvement in low-level moisture immediately ahead of the
approaching cold front. Recent mesoanalysis estimates STP values are
generally between 1-2, and should remain within this range for at
least the next 1-2 hours. Consequently, intense supercells will
continue to be possible within this corridor in the short term, and
will likely pose a threat for large hail and strong tornadoes.
Additional northward expansion of WW 129 may be needed if supercells
can maintain intensity and adequate northward moisture return can
occur.

..Moore.. 04/17/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-dwpf-sah9bSKrH3sv9Y_787KdaXg4hfYYRW3MnTb-yWCaabxbTnUHpR4YRSgP0SLHsyfIDTx= UE7DaoHupaNTrCyizU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...

LAT...LON 44199082 44429097 44759082 45818952 45958917 45908867
45738836 45548820 45228806 44868832 44018939 43948995
44029050 44199082=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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