ACUS11 KWNS 200000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192359
TXZ000-NMZ000-200200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2311
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Areas affected...far eastern New Mexico into southwestern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 192359Z - 200200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of strong to severe wind and marginally
severe hail will be possible this evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues near the surface trough
across western Texas into eastern New Mexico. While the air mass in
this area remains moderately unstable amid steep lapse rate
profiles, deep layer shear is fairly weak (around 20-30 kts). This
is also mostly confined to the the area immediately near the surface
trough. This will likely lead to outflow dominant storms with
potential for a few instances of strong to severe wind and perhaps
some marginally severe hail. As such, the threat is expected to
remain fairly localized and should decrease with loss of daytime
heating. This will likely preclude the need for watch issuance.

..Thornton/Hart.. 09/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!74i9m-xGkjxS6awhXGcmr-5rDejxFpdpXVZnBF8e5Vh2071ikG-YcpqGrD0-NAUDJzq7XfiBrW90z2hFqZNteyQQLsY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 32130391 32740322 33840208 34800153 35030133 35160090
35030051 34790017 33720037 32720107 31880193 31530253
31350318 31330357 31460387 31730402 32130391

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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