AWUS01 KWNH 312248
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-010300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0067
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
647 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Areas affected...Northeastern Indiana and Northern Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 312247Z - 010300Z

SUMMARY...A line of training showers and thunderstorms could cause
localized flash flooding across northeastern Indiana and northern
Ohio.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms, demarcated by a pair of segments of
much more intense convection, has set up across northern Indiana
and Ohio this afternoon. The initial segment of storms is
weakening across far northeast Ohio and far western PA. The back
segment of storms is closing in on Ft. Wayne, IN. In between, some
weaker showers and storms have set up in an east-west line, with
the storms also tracking east, resulting in training. The stronger
storms in the back segment over Indiana have a history of
producing rainfall rates to 1.5 inches per hour.

Most high-resolution model guidance, while behind where the storms
actually are by about 2 hours, still suggest that the back segment
in Indiana will "fill-in" as it moves east, resulting in an
east-west oriented cluster of more intense convection where
individual cells embedded within the cluster train over the same
areas. PWATs are over 1.25 inches into the Ohio Valley, and CAPE
values are between 1,000 and 2,000 J/kg into central Illinois and
Indiana. Combined with sufficient forcing along the front, the
setup suggests that the storms will have no trouble keeping storms
intense and capable of heavy rainfall through the late afternoon.
Flash flood guidance of 1.5-2 inches in 3-hours over most of
northern Ohio should be exceeded given the 1.5+ in/hr rates
already seen with the storms over Indiana, especially as the area
in between the segments of storms fills in over the next couple
hours or so.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9katCsrILRBviETCD9baUTBW-entNocx3aUDfVX0zPtQ1-_gWeFWjQKpZxCjtuj3LBoR= n5aJas2ZuX-LnVZ95p0DOIY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41428566 41388486 41388354 41338219 40998116=20
40188133 39788205 39858257 40018339 40278406=20
40528477 40908555=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 312334
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-010500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0068
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
733 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Areas affected...Western New York and Northwestern Pennsylvania

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 312332Z - 010500Z

SUMMARY...Additional convection moving into western Pennsylvania
and New York will likely cause more flash flooding into the
evening as additional line segments of storms move over previously
hard-hit and low FFG areas.

DISCUSSION... A series of line segments of showers and
thunderstorms are quickly moving eastward out of Ohio and the
Ontario Peninsula towards western New York and Pennsylvania. Very
low FFGs are in place across much of western New York from ongoing
or recently ended storms. As the next round of storms approaches,
additional rainfall will be moving over areas with ongoing
flooding, or in the case of portions of western Pennsylvania, over
areas with low FFGs such that new flooding is likely as the storms
continue to produce occasional rainfall rates exceeding 1" per
hour. Diminishing daylight will help to gradually lower the
instability and potential rainfall rates, however, even somewhat
lighter rainfall under an inch per hour, with sufficient duration,
will cause flash flooding.

As the storms move across New York and Pennsylvania, they remain
likely to align in a roughly west-to-east line, allowing training
from multiple heavier rain cells to move over the same areas.
Thus, while rainfall rates may decline with time, training over
low FFG areas should still result in some flooding. This is in
large part due to a 40-50 kt LLJ tracking WNW across the region,
supplying moisture and instability to the warm environment ahead
of the front, but at an angle sufficiently parallel to the front
to support multiple rounds of training thunderstorms.

Late this evening, all the activity is expected to sink south
across Pennsylvania and weaken with time as nocturnal, more stable
air builds, thus ending the rain threat.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5e9nYAagNkdaLmiARDmb5B-J7MLVifvbNFdGo3hkmYXuJtkjw9XZ1oWUyCPemCjLUfDu= WEZ4i5EVs1mqfDGjSL66QBI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43427851 43347775 43287753 43307704 43307683=20
43087627 42977548 42837468 42627382 41957389=20
41857413 41547507 41197581 40797663 40507758=20
40447868 40357938 40508016 41008064 41948069=20
42547933 42847890 43047908 43307904=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 010256
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-010855-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0069
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1055 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern Indiana...Ohio...Western
Pennsylvania

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 010255Z - 010855Z

SUMMARY...Organized clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will continue to track across the Ohio Valley overnight. Training
of convective cells will lead to additional localized rainfall
amounts of 2 to 3 inches. Given wet antecedent conditions,
isolated to scattered flash flooding is likely, particularly in
urban areas and locations that have seen prior rainfall.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics indicate a broad, active
corridor of convection extending from central Indiana through Ohio
and into western Pennsylvania. This activity is being driven by a
persistent 40 to 50 kt west-southwesterly low-level jet that is
maintaining strong moisture convergence and isentropic ascent over
convectively induced outflow boundaries south of a slow-moving and
largely stalled synoptic front.

While absolute instability and moisture are modest, the highly
favorable kinematics and the continuous convective regeneration
along these boundaries are resulting in localized pockets of
cell-training. Current MRMS instantaneous rainfall rates are
generally 0.50 to 1.0 inch per hour, but are peaking as high as
1.0 to 1.5 inches per hour occasionally with the strongest and
most anchored cores.

High-resolution guidance, including the 18Z HREF and latest HRRR
runs, indicates this low-level jet will remain robust through much
of the overnight hours before gradually weakening after 09Z. As a
result, this regenerative convective threat will tend to be
sustained at least over the next several hours. In time,
additional slackening of the instability will tend to weaken the
activity and lessen the rain rates. Nevertheless, additional
localized rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are expected along the
primary training axes overnight.

Recent rainfall has left antecedent soil conditions wet to
saturated across portions of the region, promoting significantly
lower FFG thresholds. The combination of primed basins, fairly
efficient rainfall rates, and rainfall duration will lead to areas
of rapid runoff. As a result, isolated to scattered instances of
flash flooding are considered likely, with an elevated threat for
urban corridors and the sensitive terrain of western Pennsylvania.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5Cqq3Qkxda1cDhhl-m2210Q2IB8-1NPKXUSotooev16O4acN3ywmZbbQOEeHSEHgNphV= lpQWRHzZa9mdWjIbBM7F6J0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...IND...IWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41917964 41667841 41117789 40387837 40058033=20
39898267 39958431 40068543 40418605 40978622=20
41488551 41678458 41628250 41868093=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 020001
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-020600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0070
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 PM EDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Areas affected...Northeastern Oklahoma & Southeast Kansas into
Central Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 020000Z - 020600Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms developing along a nearly stationary
frontal boundary and developing area of low pressure are training
and merging within the clusters as they track northeast. Despite
very dry antecedent soil conditions, rainfall rates to 2 inches
per hour with each strong cell will cause widely scattered
instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Cyclogenesis along a stationary frontal boundary is
underway across southeast Kansas this evening. A cluster of storms
have developed southwest of the low, and is quickly congealing
with other storms that have developed roughly along the
Kansas-Missouri border south of Kansas City. The storms across
Oklahoma have a history of producing rainfall rates to 2 inches
per hour. Any hail with the storms should diminish with time as
the atmosphere more fully saturates in and around the cluster of
storms. Thus, the heavy rainfall threat will increase into the
night. The low center will likely merge with a second low and
Pacific front which is back to the west (not shown). These two
features approach to each other will stall the eastward
progression of the storms over the next several hours, allowing
additional time for training convection to produce heavy rain.

Antecedent soil conditions are bone dry across all of the
highlighted area, so it may take another couple hours of heavy
rainfall across the warned area before flooding can occur. Locally
however, any areas under an extended duration of heavy rain could
see localized flash flooding occur sooner. PWATs to 1.6 inches are
being advected into the low on 30-40 kt southerly winds at 850 mb,
which will sustain the storms into the overnight as that same
low-level-jet intensifies above 50 kts once the second Pacific
front catches up to the storms.

More substantive eastward progression of the complex is expected
late tonight, after 06Z, as the Pacific front catches up to the
stationary boundary of storms and pushes everything off to the
east. This will substantially diminish the flash flooding threat
for this portion of the Plains.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!67PWvjvzgF5U3nymtUVCkJZO5-yAqUJy5QknMaWNxx8umxVicCfAnM6P3mTvaFirmEm1= VPlHiKZWo96NK2E-cjjv8po$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39889203 39669129 39089118 38339159 37269250=20
36149391 35629503 35399613 35509702 35949717=20
36489724 37049714 37489664 37869625 38649564=20
39219497 39359466 39519416 39629374 39789302=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 020531
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-021029-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0071
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
129 AM EDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Areas affected...far eastern Kansas, western/central/southern
Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020529Z - 021029Z

Summary...Locally significant flash flooding continues -
particularly across west-central Missouri. Another 2-3 hours of
moderate to heavy rainfall are expected, potentially exacerbating
ongoing flash flooding.

Discussion...An axis of training convection has persisted along a southwest-to-northeast oriented line from just west of Columbia to
about 50 miles north of Joplin. Along this axis, persistent
rainfall has resulted in around 2-6 inches of rainfall in the past
6 hours. The rainfall is being supported by strong southerly
low-level flow (~40 knots at 850mb) impinging on a remnant outflow
boundary from earlier storms. Deep southwesterly steering flow
aloft was enabling additional convective elements to develop
initially from a slightly more buoyant airmass over southeastern
Kansas and move northeastward along this axis. Heavy rain has
resulted in numerous road closures tonight.

Additional heavy rainfall is expected across the impacted region.=20
Deep convection extends from near Joplin southwestward to the
Oklahoma/Kansas border near Bartlesville that will migrate
east-northeastward. The clearing line behind this activity is
roughly along US 75 (near a propagating MCS) and will take another
2-4 hours to clear the region. Flash flooding is expected to
continue (and perhaps worsen) through 10Z/5a central.

Farther south and east, dry antecedent conditions and the
forward-propagating nature of the Oklahoma/Kansas linear
segment/MCS should result in lower chances for flash flooding
overall. Low-water crossing and sensitive spots will have the
greatest risk of isolated flash flooding in this regime.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!96GsjcHescerhJ3lgQ1A_gnKd4VW2UJIOnsXQXRJG4FnT6XwEYGU8_Q5qKm5fK_XSf6x= XQ3WmURy7ynKUQ7yom-iMMo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39379336 39269155 37939119 36669237 36579402=20
37059514 37569530 38519466=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 021906
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-030030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0072
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 PM EDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Areas affected...Southern WI...Eastern IA...Northern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021900Z - 030030Z

SUMMARY...Periods of heavy rainfall within approaching
thunderstorms may result in localized flash flooding this
afternoon, potentially impacting the afternoon commute.

DISCUSSION...A narrow band of heavy rainfall north of I-80 is
making its way through eastern IA, northwest IL, and southern WI.
This focused area of mesoscale enhanced rainfall is due to strong
50-60kt 850mb winds out of the SW that are intersecting the
surface warm front as it lifts north. The Midwest is also feeling
the effects or a negatively-tilted 500mb vorticity maximum that is
crossing east of the MO River this afternoon, generating
exceptional upper-level divergence atop the atmospheric column.
The highlighted region features >1.25" PWs, values that are above
the 99th climatological percentile. Meanwhile, strong
thunderstorms have flared up along the surface cold front in
southern IA and northern MO. MUCAPE is likely to range between
500-1,000 J/kg this afternoon as the warm sector races in aloft.
These storms are progressive, but are heading northeast towards
the same section of southern WI, northern IL, and eastern IA that
are seeing MRMS radar estimated rainfall rates over 0.5"/hr. HRRR
sampled soundings show warm cloud layers as deep as 10,000ft, so
while rates may not be overly impressive, the rainfall itself
features some supportive warm-rain processes aloft.

In most cases, these areas would handle 0.5"/hr rainfall rates
fairly well. That said, 1-hr FFGs are generally between 1.0-1.5"
and with MUCAPE values gradually increasing as the warm sector
encroaches, the band of rainfall currently in progress and the
approaching storms could generate hourly rainfall rates up to
1"/hr over the next several hours. Showers and storms remain
progressive, thus limiting the areal extent and capping the
severity of the potential for flash flooding. However, any areas
that contend with both the ongoing band of heavy rain in eastern
IA, northwest IL, and southern WI that then see the more intense
storms pass through this afternoon could encounter some localized
flash flooding and ponding. Any ponding on roadways could cause
some trouble for motorists during the afternoon commute. More
heavily urbanized locations containing a larger concentration of
hydrophobic surfaces are particuarly prone to flash flooding, as
well as low-lying areas and typical spots that drain poorly.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4kI67TM1hzkNwiHmOSK6m1yN5LwLWpPS3lCNlXFC-Yg9N8M29zrJZ7LNa5kbZ4sXjl3B= DOoNLcqj2eA1r7UuMCigUkk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...GRB...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44098771 43658752 43058766 42608790 41848894=20
41488991 41449125 41799184 42539174 42929097=20
43488964 44088827=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031949
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-040150-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0073
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...Lower Great Lakes & Western PA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031950Z - 040150Z

SUMMARY...Progressive but potentially training thunderstorms have
the potential to generate rainfall rates over 1.5"/hr. Locally
saturated soils could be particularly at-risk for flash flooding
this afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...Daytime heating and low-level theta-e advection has
destabilized the atmosphere from central IN all the way to western
PA with as much as 500-1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE having become
available in the past 3 hours per RTMA. Mesoscale guidance is
showing as much as 1.5" PWs will be available over the western
half of the at-risk region while PWs range between 1.2-1.5" over
eastern OH and western PA. All PWs referenced are comfortably
above the 90th climatological percentile. Mean winds within the
850-300mb layer are running nearly parallel to a quasi-stationary
front located over northern OH and along the Chautauqua Ridge.

As differential heating along the front strengthens and convective
temperatures over the OH Valley are reached, widespread showers
and storms will develop and track WSW to ENE this afternoon and
evening. Storms tracking parallel to the front with no change in
the mean storm motion will support the potential for training and
even back-building storms this afternoon. Soils in the region have
grown increasingly saturated, particularly eastern OH and western
PA where MRMS soil moisture values are between 50-75% saturated.
12Z HREF shows low chances (10-30%) for 3-hr QPF totals surpassing
3-hr FFGs in northern OH between 21Z and 00Z this afternoon, with
similar low chance probabilities in far western PA. Eastern IN is
farther east of the better probabilistic guidance, but some recent
CAMs runs have shown some potential for 1.5"/hr rainfall rates in
developing cells.

The progressive motion of these cells should limit storm residency
times, but with redeveloping storms expected to the south and
west, training of storms containing up to 1.5"/hr rainfall rates
are possible. 1-hr FFGs for much of the area range between
1.0-1.5" as well, making it possible for areas of flash flooding
to occur this afternoon. Low-lying and poor drainage areas are
at-risk, including more urbanized locations.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8l5tZCQ8U5jzSFpiqd3uD1sg9sw9HuwEmBUXx4_VUkwfn2SsR8DwDeLNy7zNTLlPDV96= lh7H6-9qcXBSYaN0UwToY5s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...IND...IWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41877921 41557891 41047925 40688006 40088151=20
39928202 39508341 39318469 39408562 40318614=20
40828559 40998427 41158336 41368168 41728016=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 032102
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-040300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0074
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
501 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...Southern OK & Northern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 032100Z - 040300Z

SUMMARY...Strong-to-severe thunderstorms flaring up along and
ahead of the dryline and an approaching cold front will back-build
this afternoon and produce rainfall rates up to 2"/hr. Instances
of flash flooding are likely.

DISCUSSION...Doppler Radar and GOES East satellite imagery show
thunderstorms erupting along the cold front over southern KS and
near the dryline from the Red River on south and west. There is no
shortage of instability as RAP mesoanalysis shows anywhere from
2,000-3,000 J/kg of MLCAPE present. PWs currently are less than
1.5" where storms are initiating. That will soon change as
southerly low-level flow sustains the ongoing 850mb theta-e
advection. Meanwhile, the cold front diving south will slow down
as southerly low-level winds intersect the boundary, allowing for
a prolonged window of low-level forced ascent into a highly
unstable environment. PWs will soon top 1.5" as the LLJ
strengthens and warm cloud layers gradually deepen as the evening
approaches.

Excellent vertical wind shear aloft (40-50 kts effective bulk
shear) and increasingly curved low-level hodographs containing as
much as 100-200 m2/s2 of effective SRH will support supercells at
the onset before congealing into a more organized linear cluster
of storms this evening. Where mesocyclones develop, rainfall rates
can be enhanced and exceed 2"/hr in some cases. The concern for
locally significant flash flooding is due to the slowing of the
cold front and the receding dry line as it backs up to the west.
Several hours worth of southerly flow into these frontal
boundaries combined with beneficial vertical wind profiles can
give rise to back-building thunderstorms from north TX into
central and northeast OK through this evening. 12Z HREF guidance
does show low-to-moderate chances (20-50%) for storms that are
capable of producing 6hr QPF > 6-hr FFGs through 06Z tonight. The
20Z run of the WoFS (15km neighborhood probabailities) also showed
some >50% probabilities for >2" of rainfall just north and south
of the OKC metro area through 02Z.

Soils in the Southern Plains welcome the rain given much of the
region's D1-D3 drought status. However, these kind of excessive
rainfall rates over very dry/hard soils can struggle to soak in
rainfall right away and act more as like a hydrophobic surface.
This can lead to rapid rises in water both in poor drainage areas
and near by creek beds. Any metropolitan areas with a greater
concentration of hydrophobic surfaces are also vulnerable. The
combination of excessive rainfall rates up to 2"/hr and what is
appearing to be multiple rounds of thunderstorms into this evening
favors the likelihood for flash flooding. In cases where
back-building and training occur, locally considerable instances
of flash flooding are possible.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6AiuvJ3eOGnAlJe23itflsM8uEAPnBo3alG2JInTg3_-1idawiIBf7s1ydK8mL7Kuvt2= 5xfQLpIeifP-eGgyqd8U1u4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36929643 36649567 35409609 33489996 33020080=20
32610173 32840212 33650126 34480022 35369909=20
36499793 36859739=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 032200
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-040400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0075
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
558 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...North Central IL...Western IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 032200Z - 040400Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms forming along and north of a warm front
will be capable of producing up to 2"/hr rainfall rates. With
prolonged, moist southwesterly flow expected to intersect the
front for several hours, flash flooding is likely through early
evening.

DISCUSSION...Doppler Radar shows scattered thunderstorms having
formed along a warm front that extends from the strengthening area
of low pressure in northwest MO eastward into northern OH.
Low-level southwesterly flow is providing healthy theta-e and
moisture advection while MLCAPE along and just south of the warm
front is >2,000 J/kg. PWs are forecast to surpass 1.5" this
evening, which is above the 99th climatological percentile for
early-mid April. Meanwhile, sheared shortwave energy racing north
from the South Central U.S. will provide additional synoptic scale
lift aloft later this evening. Vertical wind profiles will favor
supercells with >40 kts of effective bulk shear and up to 200
m2/s2 of SRH. As storm form along the front, persistent inflow
into the warm front as it slowly moves north gives rise to
back-building and training storms, increasing concerns for longer
residency times for these storms.

Latest 18Z HREF shows moderate chances (40-60%) for rainfall
totals >2" in north-central IL. This is supported by the 21Z WoFS
using cumulative >2" paint balls through 03Z. There are several
CAMs members (RRFS, NSSL-MPAS, 20Z HRRR) that shows this cluster
of storms having the potential to produce localized rainfall
amounts >4" through this evening. 1-hr FFGs are generally below
1.5" for the majority of the at-risk region, and even 3-hr FFGs
are <2" (less than 1.5" on the southern periphery of the
Chicagoland area). The southern tier of Chicagoland could contend
with excessive rainfall this evening as elevated instability moves
northward and the storms lift northward with the warm front.

With concerns for training and back-building storms in an
atmospheric environment suitable to generate up to 2"/hr rainfall
rates, cases of flash flooding are likely in parts of central and
northern IL, and potentially in western IN this evening. Should
those >4" amounts on various CAMs come to fruition, locally
significant flash flooding could unfold. Poor drainage areas and
urbanized communities are most vulnerable to flash flooding this
evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9Zqm5EQ8QJ4eq_dcSvuMqxde5ctbOiPbRtt4oF45VVxHWWHl6sfIkyj0o4kWhAQPiZLT= Tld5yLbJaYh2F-PYKE5BD7o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41768809 41418739 40948612 40618601 40098627=20
40018747 39918909 39659073 39979130 40539086=20
40919006 41388917=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 032249
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-040430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0076
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
647 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...Central IA...Southeast MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032245Z - 040430Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms approaching from the southwest will
produce additional heavy rainfall over northern IA and southeast
MN that saw rainfall recently over the past 24 hours. With soils
growing increasingly saturated, localized flash flooding is
possible.

DISCUSSION...Rounds of thunderstorms continue to develop just east
of the MO River as moist southwesterly flow at low levels
intersects the 850mb front oriented from western IA on north and
east into far southeast MN. Strong low-level WAA north of the warm
front is allowing for as much as 1,000 J/kg of MUCAPE over central
IA. Another round of storms on the northern periphery of the
surface low will continue to race north and east over the next few
hours in an environment that sports >1.25" PWs, which are above
the 99th climatological percentile into central IA.

Soils within the highlighted region were already coming into today
a little more saturated thanks to yesterday's rainfall. NASA
SPoRT-LIS 0-40cm soil moisture percentiles in north-central IA
were above 80% saturation coming into today. MRMS shows 3-hr QPE
from just north of Des Moines on north and east have received an
additional 0.5" of rainfall (locally higher totals too). Most
hourly rainfall rates are less than 1"/hr, but as the low deepens
and WAA increases, warm cloud layers will also deepen and warm
rain processes will make for more efficient rainfall rates that
could approach 1"/hr. Latest 1hr FFGs are as low as 1"/hr in
central IA. Flash flooding is possible, particularly along and
just north of the warm front and the track of the surface low
where a better source of instability is present. Locations most
at-risk to flash flooding are poor drainage areas and spots where
soils are beginning to struggle soaking in recent rainfall.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_r_IuqUMUIjk7Ch6sdo2ZPzGX-yKrltvOs3UOyWDa5oCCDftKcQQGGNHMWCbK50e-3YC= iIzHNj7H21Uytp12tVR17xs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43809169 43159133 42369175 41029340 40949450=20
41969505 42589467 43089354 43729249=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040131
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-040729-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0077
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
930 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...Eastern IN...Northern OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 040129Z - 040729Z

SUMMARY...Additional training thunderstorms producing hourly
rainfall rates up to 1.5"/hr remain possible through the overnight
hours.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms located along and just south of a warm
front are also forming along a narrow outflow boundary to the
south. Storms in northern OH have produced over 2" of rainfall in
some spots per MRMS QPE and one LSR southwest of Canton reporting
2 feet of water over a road. Rounds upon rounds of storms are
likely to continue from eastern IN and northern OH to as far east
as the WV Panhandle and southeast PA this evening. RAP
mesoanalysis continues to show at least 1,000 J/kg of MUCAPE
available, effective bulk shear up to 30 kts, and anomalous PWs
between 1.25-1.5" at these storms disposal.

1-hr FFGs have decreased to as low as 1" in parts of northern OH
with all areas effectively below 1.5" thanks to this afternoon's
thunderstorm activity. 00Z HRRR continues to suggest the
persistent westerly 850-300mb mean layer winds aloft and low-level
winds supplying rich theta-e into the front will create a steady
diet of storms through the rest of the evening. 00Z HRRR 6-hr QPF
shows an additional 1-2" of rainfall are possible with localized
amounts over 3" possible between now and 08Z tonight. Given the
current state of ongoing flash flooding in the area, and more
excessive rainfall to come, additional flash flooding is likely.
Locally significant flash flooding is possible where another 1-2"
of rainfall occurs in areas that are already dealing with flash
flooding. Note that flooded roadways will be more difficult for
motorists to identify with the sun having now set. Motorists
should exercise caution if they must be on the roads tonight.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-QCHH8OMPmGnSUAQ6cvwhTQNlISQOO_u7xsNTki7vtduQ6Yfb8xqYks-ICD21qvewlZx= D--TDlxavanM4ZMdv7ipPA4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41218275 40998150 40778103 40268116 40118298=20
40358467 40628531 40898531 41188402=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040259
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-040857-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0078
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1058 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...portions of Oklahoma and north Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040257Z - 040857Z

Summary...Flash flood potential will continue for the next few
hours along the Red River Valley, north Texas, and central/eastern
Oklahoma.

Discussion...Recent radar depicts an expanding convective complex
over central Oklahoma, with embedded supercellular structures near
Shawnee, OK. This complex has recently produced 1-2 inch rainfall
totals over Oklahoma City metro over the past hour, with moderate
to high MRMS Flash responses suggesting likely urban flash
flooding in the area. The complex was moving eastward at an
appreciable pace (around 30 knots) toward
less-sensitive/less-urban ground conditions, which may result in
flash flood potential becoming more isolated with time. However,
increasing low-level flow over eastern Oklahoma was contributing
to an increase in deep convection ahead of this complex, with
mergers likely to support continued 1-2 inch/hr rates at times for
at least the next couple of hours along and south of the I-40
corridor. Some training on the southwestern flank of this complex
could also spread flash flood potential into the Ada, OK vicinity
over the next 1-3 hours as well.

Convection was also developing upstream along a southward-moving
front through southwest Oklahoma and the Childress, TX area. The
speed of the front should limit the degree of repeating/training
convection here, and rainfall should occur over areas that have
been relatively dry. Isolated flash flooding is possible in low
spots where repeating can bump hourly totals above the 1-1.5 inch
range.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8RR8Dwgx8Nc6M0A0rRRc7lEvTSp3Pc66kG1RjhwnissW-lHQcxBIxMjkCg_OVqBeydr1= NmrwFennnqw1AwUhDLDp2w8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36359490 35139451 33999530 32909765 33140060=20
33670158 34770059 35119820 35499746 36219682=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040417
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-040715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0079
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1216 AM EDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Areas affected...northeastern Illinois, northwestern Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040415Z - 040715Z

Summary...Training convection could persist for another couple
hours into southern suburbs of Chicago Metro.

Discussion...A persistent, SW-NE oriented band of convection has
trained along an axis very near I-55 between Joliet and Pontiac
over the past couple hours. The convection is becoming
progressively more elevated with time, but is persistent within a warm-advection regime located just above a stable boundary layer,
with ~1000 J/kg MUCAPE (per SPC mesoanalyses) supporting strong
updrafts. The orientation of the convection was supporting
prolonged rainfall, leading to rates in the 1-2 inch/hr range
(1-2X higher than estimated FFG in the region). Downstream
instability profiles are supportive of this band of convection
reaching southern sides of Chicago Metro and far northwestern
Indiana over the next couple hours, resulting in at least isolated
flash flood potential. Outside of this band, deepening showers
were noted across a broader portion of northern and central
Illinois that may repeat over some of the same areas in line for
heavy rain from the aforementioned band, but degree of
training/high-rain rates is uncertain.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5oGpcz_H95CrQ9P7DD1e772UzfPY8quem7gDqTHIPQBUNM21ddfJCYfx4tetiuCdKC1o= 5UVg3ubnlawvUTe_1gpyKOc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41888715 41528688 40948779 40988829 41278872=20
41738828=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040420
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-040715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0079
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1219 AM EDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Areas affected...northeastern Illinois, northwestern Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040415Z - 040715Z

Summary...Training convection could persist for another couple
hours into southern suburbs of Chicago Metro.

Discussion...A persistent, SW-NE oriented band of convection has
trained along an axis very near I-55 between Joliet and Pontiac
over the past couple hours. The convection is becoming
progressively more elevated with time, but is persistent within a warm-advection regime located just above a stable boundary layer,
with ~1000 J/kg MUCAPE (per SPC mesoanalyses) supporting strong
updrafts. The orientation of the convection was supporting
prolonged rainfall, leading to rates in the 1-2 inch/hr range
(1-2X higher than estimated FFG in the region). Downstream
instability profiles are supportive of this band of convection
reaching southern sides of Chicago Metro and far northwestern
Indiana over the next couple hours, resulting in at least isolated
flash flood potential. Outside of this band, deepening showers
were noted across a broader portion of northern and central
Illinois that may repeat over some of the same areas in line for
heavy rain from the aforementioned band, but degree of
training/high-rain rates is uncertain.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!95o1G44xhRAXek0_2DYk6pSIAZkkVhqDAI9oXcEzGf0JY7r_gN5CB_WeznGwL5J4COD_= ZWGH3d-nvcGE_myqltzA_K4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41888715 41528688 40948779 40988829 41278872=20
41738828=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041902
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-050101-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0080
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 PM EDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Areas affected...Eastern TX...North-Central LA...Southern
AR...Western MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041901Z - 050101Z

Summary...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to
increase in coverage across much of the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss
regions through the remainder of the afternoon and into the
evening hours. Areas with persistent training cells could get 1
inch/30 minute rainfall rates, which could result in a few
instances of flooding.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars and visible satellite imagery
are indicating a steady increase in convection developing along
and ahead of a strong cold front. Multiple broken line segments of
pre-frontal storms have developed well ahead of the main line
across much of central and northern Louisiana, and also across the
northwestern half of Mississippi. These storms are starting to
convectively train, leading to enhanced rainfall rates of 1-2
inches per hour, and in some instances an inch in under 30 minutes
where cell mergers happen. This will moisten the soils before the
main line of convection approaches with the front later this
afternoon and evening.

Recent runs of the RRFS and HRRR are indicating the potential for
scattered QPF maxima on the order of 2-4 inches through 00Z, with
much of this likely occurring within a 2-3 hour time period for
any given location. Although recent dry conditions across much of
the region is a mitigating factor, the higher rainfall rates may
be enough to result in a few instances of flooding, with a greater
potential for this across urban locations.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6TJ5Yo_BSMsrzRQZKvYUNRSR_uJFpYLZ3vmsP37NhCSEIVqSUE_Ps1NeodLAbn1FmHOR= 1J2GOMXYqyotTJXZK116pzA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...LZK...MEG...
SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34009043 33878966 33038933 31229040 30609073=20
30419127 30769249 30769317 30659377 30399455=20
30019552 29779623 29599690 29809730 30049737=20
30439708 30819659 31309628 31709580 31949548=20
32179511 32539463 32809414 33029372 33239315=20
33349270 33429238 33569207 33669169 33859109=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050127
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-050500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0081
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
925 PM EDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Areas affected...Southern LA and South-Central MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050125Z - 050500Z

Summary...Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue across
much of southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi through the
remainder of the evening hours, including extreme southeast Texas.
Areas with persistent training cells could get 1 inch/30 minute
rainfall rates, which could result in a few instances of flooding
through midnight.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars and visible satellite imagery
are indicating widespread convection along and ahead of an
approaching cold front. There are several multi-cell clusters that
have developed ahead of the main swath of convection associated
with the cold front, and these are aligned in the general low
level SSW winds and have been training over the past few hours.
Many locations across central Louisiana and central Mississippi
have already picked up 1-2 inches of rain over the past 6 hours,
and locally higher, therefore making the soils more saturated and
susceptible to potential flooding issues.

Recent runs of the RRFS and HRRR are indicating the potential for
scattered QPF maxima on the order of 1-3 inches through 5Z, with
much of this likely occurring within a 2-3 hour time period for
any given location. This activity should generally diminish in
intensity going into the overnight hours as instability decreases.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4n9bWHs3DcmJI-CImz_pLZablPamVMzuhPYprk6cRUQCVqx1EJYLMgrvMwg8I9H8V1ET= 1swjHN2IRCxAozGJzLikTOE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32978902 32908865 32708847 32308846 31608863=20
30838893 30148940 29799008 29729157 29749267=20
29929312 29999321 29999321 30389328 30679311=20
31149258 31689172 32199099 32609030 32918956=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050209
FFGMPD
TXZ000-050508-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0082
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1008 PM EDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Areas affected...Deep South Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050208Z - 050508Z

Summary...A cluster of deep convection should eventually spread
1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates into McAllen, TX and vicinity through
04-05Z.

Discussion...Deep convection has become increasingly organized
across primary rural areas of Deep South Texas over the area. The
storms are focused along an inverted surface trough extending into
the area from northeastern Mexico, with light southeasterly
low-level flow maintaining a surface airmass characterized by 80s
F surface temps/70s F dewpoints into that axis. Storms were
becoming more organized and developing cold pools/weak
supercellular structures, which isn't surprising given directional
shear through the troposphere. Southward propagation of this
cluster should spread areas of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates into the
McAllen, Texas area and vicinity, where urbanized surfaces may
pose a risk of flash flooding as the cells move through.

The overall synoptic scenario supporting heavy rainfall should
change little through 05Z or so as the weak inverted trough
persists and weak mid-level waves traverse the area. The
longevity of convection along the Rio Grande is a bit uncertain
and highly dependent on the local evolution of convection in that
area, which should be relatively slow given weak wind fields aloft.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6-PGiJtHrnrSTk1OIvgeZk0r5sWUOI26gjZ65SduasNkLAfkKNnkwDeGtAD4f9eftZcj= WdMnKW9T-MaPgYhBOS0pi_Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 26999850 26729741 25969739 26229887 26599905=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062108
FFGMPD
FLZ000-070200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0083
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
506 PM EDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Areas affected...Central Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062105Z - 070200Z

Summary...Slow moving thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage through the early evening hours across central Florida
near an approaching cold front. High rainfall rates up to 2
inches/30 minutes may lead to some instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars and GOES-E satellite imagery
are indicating a steady increase in slow moving thunderstorms
across inland portions of the central Florida Peninsula late this
afternoon. Several multi-cell clusters have been exhibiting signs
of back-building over the past 1-2 hours, and these are producing
outflow boundaries that will converge to generate additional slow
moving convection that may be heavier that what is currently
happening now. The environment is favorable for storms with high
rainfall rates given mixed layer CAPE on the order of 1000-1500
J/kg, PWs near 1.7 inches, and 20-30 knots of effective bulk shear
per the latest SPC mesoanalysis.

Recent CAM guidance through 2Z is portraying the potential for
scattered QPF maxima on the order of 3-5 inches with the most
persistent convection, and much of this is likely to fall within a
two hour time period for any given location. HREF neighborhood
exceedance probabilities of 3-hourly flash flood guidance are up
to roughly 30% between Orlando and Fort Myers, and there are some
low-end probabilities of 6-hour QPF reaching 100-year ARI for some
of these areas. Although this area is in a drought, the high
sub-hourly rainfall rates could be enough to overcome this
limitation and result in some instances of flash flooding through
10 pm local time.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_BCj-gL5y9Bht0KzO_qMa0emd3AmRjhExfsZOqRQ83_UtP26mbOpcV8kNYOWVCsm1DKi= ZcoPmWSl9HSE7FJnwRjG05M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28858171 28788116 28518087 28058066 27598059=20
27328077 27158090 26968105 26688088 26268101=20
26218148 26438174 27118228 27568238 28028244=20
28358242 28568237 28788213=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081826
FFGMPD
FLZ000-090025-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0084
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
225 PM EDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Areas affected...Treasure and Gold Coast of Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081825Z - 090025Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with a history of
rainfall rates over 2 inches/hour are impacting portions of the
Treasure and Gold Coast of Florida, with increasing concerns for
impacts over sensitive urban areas. Flash flooding is possible
where the cells are the most persistent through the afternoon and
early evening.

DISCUSSION...Persistently moist and relatively unstable low-level
easterly flow continues to focus areas of showers and some
occasional thunderstorms into the Atlantic Coast of Florida. Much
of the activity is aligned with the low-level steering flow and
has been focusing near the offshore Gulf Stream with extensions
westward into areas mainly south of Melbourne and especially areas
just north of Stuart where convection is more concentrated. More
scattered activity is situated farther south down the coast into
the I-95 urban corridor of southeast Florida.

Despite the relatively scattered nature of the coverage, with
southwesterly flow aloft (as opposed to easterly flow in the lower
levels), the extreme directional shear present across Florida is
making an environment favorable for slow-moving and training
storms. Daytime heating is also allowing for instability to
increase, currently ranging from 2,000 J/kg near Miami to near
1,500 J/kg near Melbourne based on SPC Mesoanalysis. Atmospheric
moisture also ranges from 1.7" PWAT near Miami to 1.4" near
Melbourne. Thus, the greatest threat for the heaviest rains are
further south down I-95.

Multiple days of rainfall across all of southern Florida this past
week has sufficiently saturated the soils. Thus, expect much of
any heavy rainfall today to favor increased runoff. Ultimately any
impacts and the magnitudes thereof will be dependent on where any
training cells develop relative to how urban the ground underneath
the cells is. With rates in the strongest cells later this
afternoon expected to potentially reach 3 inches/hour, localized
totals to 6 inches can't be ruled out. This in turn would result
in localized flooding. Regardless, expect that the storms that
will be capable of flash flooding to remain isolated to widely
scattered.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7reFGpJjrW38AH1Upf3utPD1RP59anTYXGOCvwwonvVJOkizU1tqghWCW4TM6SECp_jb= F2MXRT9fT1GHYMWwAo3DhII$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28028067 27988037 26947997 25957994 25598022=20
25498051 25708057 26008045 26288039 26648033=20
26938037 27298050 27528056 27828068=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 091025
FFGMPD
FLZ000-091500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0085
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
624 AM EDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Areas affected...east-central FL Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091017Z - 091500Z

Summary...Slow moving showers with possible embedded thunderstorms
are expected to focus isolated areas of heavy rain along the Space
and Treasure coasts through late morning. Localized hourly
rainfall of 2+ inches will be possible with storm totals of 2 to
4+ inches through 15Z, which may result in isolated flash flooding.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 10Z showed scattered
showers between southern Brevard County and southern St. Lucie
County. 10.3 micron satellite imagery indicated cloud tops over
land were relatively warm at -20 to -35 C, with an estimated cloud
depth of 9 km AGL based on RAP analysis soundings over the region.
Easterly winds of 20-30 kt in the 925-850 mb layer were oriented
perpendicular to the coast while mid-upper level flow was from the
west at a similar magnitude. This has set up favorable effective
shear profiles for organized cells although 0-8 km AGL mean layer
winds were about 5 kt or less, resulting in slow cell movement. In
addition, the alignment of showers with the low level wind has
also resulted in slow movement of heavy rain cores at times with
recent development near Vero Beach showing signs of a weak MCV
over eastern Indian River County. MRMS-derived and KVRB hourly
rainfall of 2-2.5 inches has been observed with nearly 2 inches of
rain in 32 minutes at KVRB ending 0940Z. Speed and weak
directional convergence near the surface was allowing for the
formation of quasi-transient bands of heavy rain within an
expanding pocket of MLCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg (06Z-10Z SPC
mesoanalyses) over the east coast of FL.

While the future existence of the weak meso-vortex near Vero Beach
is unknown, convergence in the surface to near-surface layer is
expected to continue a threat for slow moving showers with
embedded thunderstorms from Brevard County down to St. Lucie
County over the next 3-5 hours. However, the concentration of
heavy rain is expected to remain limited in spatial extent through
the morning hours. Any areas of flash flooding that develop are
likely to focus across urban and other areas of poor draining,
remaining localized in coverage.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9mIL8BFa2gasaYWoyUi5qRG3Of1RRU_n9PRYp394FRPLoJ3dKXYY6S7SbSiGb2zS-sgD= TGJYn7ZaxolHVDjniKRixg4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28608054 27788010 27008004 26998066 27908111=20
28528112=20

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