AWUS01 KWNH 312248
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-010300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0067
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
647 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Areas affected...Northeastern Indiana and Northern Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 312247Z - 010300Z

SUMMARY...A line of training showers and thunderstorms could cause
localized flash flooding across northeastern Indiana and northern
Ohio.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms, demarcated by a pair of segments of
much more intense convection, has set up across northern Indiana
and Ohio this afternoon. The initial segment of storms is
weakening across far northeast Ohio and far western PA. The back
segment of storms is closing in on Ft. Wayne, IN. In between, some
weaker showers and storms have set up in an east-west line, with
the storms also tracking east, resulting in training. The stronger
storms in the back segment over Indiana have a history of
producing rainfall rates to 1.5 inches per hour.

Most high-resolution model guidance, while behind where the storms
actually are by about 2 hours, still suggest that the back segment
in Indiana will "fill-in" as it moves east, resulting in an
east-west oriented cluster of more intense convection where
individual cells embedded within the cluster train over the same
areas. PWATs are over 1.25 inches into the Ohio Valley, and CAPE
values are between 1,000 and 2,000 J/kg into central Illinois and
Indiana. Combined with sufficient forcing along the front, the
setup suggests that the storms will have no trouble keeping storms
intense and capable of heavy rainfall through the late afternoon.
Flash flood guidance of 1.5-2 inches in 3-hours over most of
northern Ohio should be exceeded given the 1.5+ in/hr rates
already seen with the storms over Indiana, especially as the area
in between the segments of storms fills in over the next couple
hours or so.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9katCsrILRBviETCD9baUTBW-entNocx3aUDfVX0zPtQ1-_gWeFWjQKpZxCjtuj3LBoR= n5aJas2ZuX-LnVZ95p0DOIY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41428566 41388486 41388354 41338219 40998116=20
40188133 39788205 39858257 40018339 40278406=20
40528477 40908555=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 312334
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-010500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0068
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
733 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Areas affected...Western New York and Northwestern Pennsylvania

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 312332Z - 010500Z

SUMMARY...Additional convection moving into western Pennsylvania
and New York will likely cause more flash flooding into the
evening as additional line segments of storms move over previously
hard-hit and low FFG areas.

DISCUSSION... A series of line segments of showers and
thunderstorms are quickly moving eastward out of Ohio and the
Ontario Peninsula towards western New York and Pennsylvania. Very
low FFGs are in place across much of western New York from ongoing
or recently ended storms. As the next round of storms approaches,
additional rainfall will be moving over areas with ongoing
flooding, or in the case of portions of western Pennsylvania, over
areas with low FFGs such that new flooding is likely as the storms
continue to produce occasional rainfall rates exceeding 1" per
hour. Diminishing daylight will help to gradually lower the
instability and potential rainfall rates, however, even somewhat
lighter rainfall under an inch per hour, with sufficient duration,
will cause flash flooding.

As the storms move across New York and Pennsylvania, they remain
likely to align in a roughly west-to-east line, allowing training
from multiple heavier rain cells to move over the same areas.
Thus, while rainfall rates may decline with time, training over
low FFG areas should still result in some flooding. This is in
large part due to a 40-50 kt LLJ tracking WNW across the region,
supplying moisture and instability to the warm environment ahead
of the front, but at an angle sufficiently parallel to the front
to support multiple rounds of training thunderstorms.

Late this evening, all the activity is expected to sink south
across Pennsylvania and weaken with time as nocturnal, more stable
air builds, thus ending the rain threat.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5e9nYAagNkdaLmiARDmb5B-J7MLVifvbNFdGo3hkmYXuJtkjw9XZ1oWUyCPemCjLUfDu= WEZ4i5EVs1mqfDGjSL66QBI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43427851 43347775 43287753 43307704 43307683=20
43087627 42977548 42837468 42627382 41957389=20
41857413 41547507 41197581 40797663 40507758=20
40447868 40357938 40508016 41008064 41948069=20
42547933 42847890 43047908 43307904=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 010256
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-010855-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0069
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1055 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern Indiana...Ohio...Western
Pennsylvania

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 010255Z - 010855Z

SUMMARY...Organized clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will continue to track across the Ohio Valley overnight. Training
of convective cells will lead to additional localized rainfall
amounts of 2 to 3 inches. Given wet antecedent conditions,
isolated to scattered flash flooding is likely, particularly in
urban areas and locations that have seen prior rainfall.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics indicate a broad, active
corridor of convection extending from central Indiana through Ohio
and into western Pennsylvania. This activity is being driven by a
persistent 40 to 50 kt west-southwesterly low-level jet that is
maintaining strong moisture convergence and isentropic ascent over
convectively induced outflow boundaries south of a slow-moving and
largely stalled synoptic front.

While absolute instability and moisture are modest, the highly
favorable kinematics and the continuous convective regeneration
along these boundaries are resulting in localized pockets of
cell-training. Current MRMS instantaneous rainfall rates are
generally 0.50 to 1.0 inch per hour, but are peaking as high as
1.0 to 1.5 inches per hour occasionally with the strongest and
most anchored cores.

High-resolution guidance, including the 18Z HREF and latest HRRR
runs, indicates this low-level jet will remain robust through much
of the overnight hours before gradually weakening after 09Z. As a
result, this regenerative convective threat will tend to be
sustained at least over the next several hours. In time,
additional slackening of the instability will tend to weaken the
activity and lessen the rain rates. Nevertheless, additional
localized rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are expected along the
primary training axes overnight.

Recent rainfall has left antecedent soil conditions wet to
saturated across portions of the region, promoting significantly
lower FFG thresholds. The combination of primed basins, fairly
efficient rainfall rates, and rainfall duration will lead to areas
of rapid runoff. As a result, isolated to scattered instances of
flash flooding are considered likely, with an elevated threat for
urban corridors and the sensitive terrain of western Pennsylvania.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5Cqq3Qkxda1cDhhl-m2210Q2IB8-1NPKXUSotooev16O4acN3ywmZbbQOEeHSEHgNphV= lpQWRHzZa9mdWjIbBM7F6J0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...IND...IWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41917964 41667841 41117789 40387837 40058033=20
39898267 39958431 40068543 40418605 40978622=20
41488551 41678458 41628250 41868093=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 020001
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-020600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0070
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 PM EDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Areas affected...Northeastern Oklahoma & Southeast Kansas into
Central Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 020000Z - 020600Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms developing along a nearly stationary
frontal boundary and developing area of low pressure are training
and merging within the clusters as they track northeast. Despite
very dry antecedent soil conditions, rainfall rates to 2 inches
per hour with each strong cell will cause widely scattered
instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Cyclogenesis along a stationary frontal boundary is
underway across southeast Kansas this evening. A cluster of storms
have developed southwest of the low, and is quickly congealing
with other storms that have developed roughly along the
Kansas-Missouri border south of Kansas City. The storms across
Oklahoma have a history of producing rainfall rates to 2 inches
per hour. Any hail with the storms should diminish with time as
the atmosphere more fully saturates in and around the cluster of
storms. Thus, the heavy rainfall threat will increase into the
night. The low center will likely merge with a second low and
Pacific front which is back to the west (not shown). These two
features approach to each other will stall the eastward
progression of the storms over the next several hours, allowing
additional time for training convection to produce heavy rain.

Antecedent soil conditions are bone dry across all of the
highlighted area, so it may take another couple hours of heavy
rainfall across the warned area before flooding can occur. Locally
however, any areas under an extended duration of heavy rain could
see localized flash flooding occur sooner. PWATs to 1.6 inches are
being advected into the low on 30-40 kt southerly winds at 850 mb,
which will sustain the storms into the overnight as that same
low-level-jet intensifies above 50 kts once the second Pacific
front catches up to the storms.

More substantive eastward progression of the complex is expected
late tonight, after 06Z, as the Pacific front catches up to the
stationary boundary of storms and pushes everything off to the
east. This will substantially diminish the flash flooding threat
for this portion of the Plains.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!67PWvjvzgF5U3nymtUVCkJZO5-yAqUJy5QknMaWNxx8umxVicCfAnM6P3mTvaFirmEm1= VPlHiKZWo96NK2E-cjjv8po$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39889203 39669129 39089118 38339159 37269250=20
36149391 35629503 35399613 35509702 35949717=20
36489724 37049714 37489664 37869625 38649564=20
39219497 39359466 39519416 39629374 39789302=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 020531
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-021029-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0071
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
129 AM EDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Areas affected...far eastern Kansas, western/central/southern
Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020529Z - 021029Z

Summary...Locally significant flash flooding continues -
particularly across west-central Missouri. Another 2-3 hours of
moderate to heavy rainfall are expected, potentially exacerbating
ongoing flash flooding.

Discussion...An axis of training convection has persisted along a southwest-to-northeast oriented line from just west of Columbia to
about 50 miles north of Joplin. Along this axis, persistent
rainfall has resulted in around 2-6 inches of rainfall in the past
6 hours. The rainfall is being supported by strong southerly
low-level flow (~40 knots at 850mb) impinging on a remnant outflow
boundary from earlier storms. Deep southwesterly steering flow
aloft was enabling additional convective elements to develop
initially from a slightly more buoyant airmass over southeastern
Kansas and move northeastward along this axis. Heavy rain has
resulted in numerous road closures tonight.

Additional heavy rainfall is expected across the impacted region.=20
Deep convection extends from near Joplin southwestward to the
Oklahoma/Kansas border near Bartlesville that will migrate
east-northeastward. The clearing line behind this activity is
roughly along US 75 (near a propagating MCS) and will take another
2-4 hours to clear the region. Flash flooding is expected to
continue (and perhaps worsen) through 10Z/5a central.

Farther south and east, dry antecedent conditions and the
forward-propagating nature of the Oklahoma/Kansas linear
segment/MCS should result in lower chances for flash flooding
overall. Low-water crossing and sensitive spots will have the
greatest risk of isolated flash flooding in this regime.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!96GsjcHescerhJ3lgQ1A_gnKd4VW2UJIOnsXQXRJG4FnT6XwEYGU8_Q5qKm5fK_XSf6x= XQ3WmURy7ynKUQ7yom-iMMo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39379336 39269155 37939119 36669237 36579402=20
37059514 37569530 38519466=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 021906
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-030030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0072
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 PM EDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Areas affected...Southern WI...Eastern IA...Northern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021900Z - 030030Z

SUMMARY...Periods of heavy rainfall within approaching
thunderstorms may result in localized flash flooding this
afternoon, potentially impacting the afternoon commute.

DISCUSSION...A narrow band of heavy rainfall north of I-80 is
making its way through eastern IA, northwest IL, and southern WI.
This focused area of mesoscale enhanced rainfall is due to strong
50-60kt 850mb winds out of the SW that are intersecting the
surface warm front as it lifts north. The Midwest is also feeling
the effects or a negatively-tilted 500mb vorticity maximum that is
crossing east of the MO River this afternoon, generating
exceptional upper-level divergence atop the atmospheric column.
The highlighted region features >1.25" PWs, values that are above
the 99th climatological percentile. Meanwhile, strong
thunderstorms have flared up along the surface cold front in
southern IA and northern MO. MUCAPE is likely to range between
500-1,000 J/kg this afternoon as the warm sector races in aloft.
These storms are progressive, but are heading northeast towards
the same section of southern WI, northern IL, and eastern IA that
are seeing MRMS radar estimated rainfall rates over 0.5"/hr. HRRR
sampled soundings show warm cloud layers as deep as 10,000ft, so
while rates may not be overly impressive, the rainfall itself
features some supportive warm-rain processes aloft.

In most cases, these areas would handle 0.5"/hr rainfall rates
fairly well. That said, 1-hr FFGs are generally between 1.0-1.5"
and with MUCAPE values gradually increasing as the warm sector
encroaches, the band of rainfall currently in progress and the
approaching storms could generate hourly rainfall rates up to
1"/hr over the next several hours. Showers and storms remain
progressive, thus limiting the areal extent and capping the
severity of the potential for flash flooding. However, any areas
that contend with both the ongoing band of heavy rain in eastern
IA, northwest IL, and southern WI that then see the more intense
storms pass through this afternoon could encounter some localized
flash flooding and ponding. Any ponding on roadways could cause
some trouble for motorists during the afternoon commute. More
heavily urbanized locations containing a larger concentration of
hydrophobic surfaces are particuarly prone to flash flooding, as
well as low-lying areas and typical spots that drain poorly.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4kI67TM1hzkNwiHmOSK6m1yN5LwLWpPS3lCNlXFC-Yg9N8M29zrJZ7LNa5kbZ4sXjl3B= DOoNLcqj2eA1r7UuMCigUkk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...GRB...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44098771 43658752 43058766 42608790 41848894=20
41488991 41449125 41799184 42539174 42929097=20
43488964 44088827=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031949
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-040150-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0073
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...Lower Great Lakes & Western PA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031950Z - 040150Z

SUMMARY...Progressive but potentially training thunderstorms have
the potential to generate rainfall rates over 1.5"/hr. Locally
saturated soils could be particularly at-risk for flash flooding
this afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...Daytime heating and low-level theta-e advection has
destabilized the atmosphere from central IN all the way to western
PA with as much as 500-1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE having become
available in the past 3 hours per RTMA. Mesoscale guidance is
showing as much as 1.5" PWs will be available over the western
half of the at-risk region while PWs range between 1.2-1.5" over
eastern OH and western PA. All PWs referenced are comfortably
above the 90th climatological percentile. Mean winds within the
850-300mb layer are running nearly parallel to a quasi-stationary
front located over northern OH and along the Chautauqua Ridge.

As differential heating along the front strengthens and convective
temperatures over the OH Valley are reached, widespread showers
and storms will develop and track WSW to ENE this afternoon and
evening. Storms tracking parallel to the front with no change in
the mean storm motion will support the potential for training and
even back-building storms this afternoon. Soils in the region have
grown increasingly saturated, particularly eastern OH and western
PA where MRMS soil moisture values are between 50-75% saturated.
12Z HREF shows low chances (10-30%) for 3-hr QPF totals surpassing
3-hr FFGs in northern OH between 21Z and 00Z this afternoon, with
similar low chance probabilities in far western PA. Eastern IN is
farther east of the better probabilistic guidance, but some recent
CAMs runs have shown some potential for 1.5"/hr rainfall rates in
developing cells.

The progressive motion of these cells should limit storm residency
times, but with redeveloping storms expected to the south and
west, training of storms containing up to 1.5"/hr rainfall rates
are possible. 1-hr FFGs for much of the area range between
1.0-1.5" as well, making it possible for areas of flash flooding
to occur this afternoon. Low-lying and poor drainage areas are
at-risk, including more urbanized locations.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8l5tZCQ8U5jzSFpiqd3uD1sg9sw9HuwEmBUXx4_VUkwfn2SsR8DwDeLNy7zNTLlPDV96= lh7H6-9qcXBSYaN0UwToY5s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...IND...IWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41877921 41557891 41047925 40688006 40088151=20
39928202 39508341 39318469 39408562 40318614=20
40828559 40998427 41158336 41368168 41728016=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 032102
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-040300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0074
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
501 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...Southern OK & Northern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 032100Z - 040300Z

SUMMARY...Strong-to-severe thunderstorms flaring up along and
ahead of the dryline and an approaching cold front will back-build
this afternoon and produce rainfall rates up to 2"/hr. Instances
of flash flooding are likely.

DISCUSSION...Doppler Radar and GOES East satellite imagery show
thunderstorms erupting along the cold front over southern KS and
near the dryline from the Red River on south and west. There is no
shortage of instability as RAP mesoanalysis shows anywhere from
2,000-3,000 J/kg of MLCAPE present. PWs currently are less than
1.5" where storms are initiating. That will soon change as
southerly low-level flow sustains the ongoing 850mb theta-e
advection. Meanwhile, the cold front diving south will slow down
as southerly low-level winds intersect the boundary, allowing for
a prolonged window of low-level forced ascent into a highly
unstable environment. PWs will soon top 1.5" as the LLJ
strengthens and warm cloud layers gradually deepen as the evening
approaches.

Excellent vertical wind shear aloft (40-50 kts effective bulk
shear) and increasingly curved low-level hodographs containing as
much as 100-200 m2/s2 of effective SRH will support supercells at
the onset before congealing into a more organized linear cluster
of storms this evening. Where mesocyclones develop, rainfall rates
can be enhanced and exceed 2"/hr in some cases. The concern for
locally significant flash flooding is due to the slowing of the
cold front and the receding dry line as it backs up to the west.
Several hours worth of southerly flow into these frontal
boundaries combined with beneficial vertical wind profiles can
give rise to back-building thunderstorms from north TX into
central and northeast OK through this evening. 12Z HREF guidance
does show low-to-moderate chances (20-50%) for storms that are
capable of producing 6hr QPF > 6-hr FFGs through 06Z tonight. The
20Z run of the WoFS (15km neighborhood probabailities) also showed
some >50% probabilities for >2" of rainfall just north and south
of the OKC metro area through 02Z.

Soils in the Southern Plains welcome the rain given much of the
region's D1-D3 drought status. However, these kind of excessive
rainfall rates over very dry/hard soils can struggle to soak in
rainfall right away and act more as like a hydrophobic surface.
This can lead to rapid rises in water both in poor drainage areas
and near by creek beds. Any metropolitan areas with a greater
concentration of hydrophobic surfaces are also vulnerable. The
combination of excessive rainfall rates up to 2"/hr and what is
appearing to be multiple rounds of thunderstorms into this evening
favors the likelihood for flash flooding. In cases where
back-building and training occur, locally considerable instances
of flash flooding are possible.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6AiuvJ3eOGnAlJe23itflsM8uEAPnBo3alG2JInTg3_-1idawiIBf7s1ydK8mL7Kuvt2= 5xfQLpIeifP-eGgyqd8U1u4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36929643 36649567 35409609 33489996 33020080=20
32610173 32840212 33650126 34480022 35369909=20
36499793 36859739=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 032200
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-040400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0075
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
558 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...North Central IL...Western IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 032200Z - 040400Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms forming along and north of a warm front
will be capable of producing up to 2"/hr rainfall rates. With
prolonged, moist southwesterly flow expected to intersect the
front for several hours, flash flooding is likely through early
evening.

DISCUSSION...Doppler Radar shows scattered thunderstorms having
formed along a warm front that extends from the strengthening area
of low pressure in northwest MO eastward into northern OH.
Low-level southwesterly flow is providing healthy theta-e and
moisture advection while MLCAPE along and just south of the warm
front is >2,000 J/kg. PWs are forecast to surpass 1.5" this
evening, which is above the 99th climatological percentile for
early-mid April. Meanwhile, sheared shortwave energy racing north
from the South Central U.S. will provide additional synoptic scale
lift aloft later this evening. Vertical wind profiles will favor
supercells with >40 kts of effective bulk shear and up to 200
m2/s2 of SRH. As storm form along the front, persistent inflow
into the warm front as it slowly moves north gives rise to
back-building and training storms, increasing concerns for longer
residency times for these storms.

Latest 18Z HREF shows moderate chances (40-60%) for rainfall
totals >2" in north-central IL. This is supported by the 21Z WoFS
using cumulative >2" paint balls through 03Z. There are several
CAMs members (RRFS, NSSL-MPAS, 20Z HRRR) that shows this cluster
of storms having the potential to produce localized rainfall
amounts >4" through this evening. 1-hr FFGs are generally below
1.5" for the majority of the at-risk region, and even 3-hr FFGs
are <2" (less than 1.5" on the southern periphery of the
Chicagoland area). The southern tier of Chicagoland could contend
with excessive rainfall this evening as elevated instability moves
northward and the storms lift northward with the warm front.

With concerns for training and back-building storms in an
atmospheric environment suitable to generate up to 2"/hr rainfall
rates, cases of flash flooding are likely in parts of central and
northern IL, and potentially in western IN this evening. Should
those >4" amounts on various CAMs come to fruition, locally
significant flash flooding could unfold. Poor drainage areas and
urbanized communities are most vulnerable to flash flooding this
evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9Zqm5EQ8QJ4eq_dcSvuMqxde5ctbOiPbRtt4oF45VVxHWWHl6sfIkyj0o4kWhAQPiZLT= Tld5yLbJaYh2F-PYKE5BD7o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41768809 41418739 40948612 40618601 40098627=20
40018747 39918909 39659073 39979130 40539086=20
40919006 41388917=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 032249
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-040430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0076
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
647 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...Central IA...Southeast MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032245Z - 040430Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms approaching from the southwest will
produce additional heavy rainfall over northern IA and southeast
MN that saw rainfall recently over the past 24 hours. With soils
growing increasingly saturated, localized flash flooding is
possible.

DISCUSSION...Rounds of thunderstorms continue to develop just east
of the MO River as moist southwesterly flow at low levels
intersects the 850mb front oriented from western IA on north and
east into far southeast MN. Strong low-level WAA north of the warm
front is allowing for as much as 1,000 J/kg of MUCAPE over central
IA. Another round of storms on the northern periphery of the
surface low will continue to race north and east over the next few
hours in an environment that sports >1.25" PWs, which are above
the 99th climatological percentile into central IA.

Soils within the highlighted region were already coming into today
a little more saturated thanks to yesterday's rainfall. NASA
SPoRT-LIS 0-40cm soil moisture percentiles in north-central IA
were above 80% saturation coming into today. MRMS shows 3-hr QPE
from just north of Des Moines on north and east have received an
additional 0.5" of rainfall (locally higher totals too). Most
hourly rainfall rates are less than 1"/hr, but as the low deepens
and WAA increases, warm cloud layers will also deepen and warm
rain processes will make for more efficient rainfall rates that
could approach 1"/hr. Latest 1hr FFGs are as low as 1"/hr in
central IA. Flash flooding is possible, particularly along and
just north of the warm front and the track of the surface low
where a better source of instability is present. Locations most
at-risk to flash flooding are poor drainage areas and spots where
soils are beginning to struggle soaking in recent rainfall.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_r_IuqUMUIjk7Ch6sdo2ZPzGX-yKrltvOs3UOyWDa5oCCDftKcQQGGNHMWCbK50e-3YC= iIzHNj7H21Uytp12tVR17xs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43809169 43159133 42369175 41029340 40949450=20
41969505 42589467 43089354 43729249=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040131
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-040729-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0077
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
930 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...Eastern IN...Northern OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 040129Z - 040729Z

SUMMARY...Additional training thunderstorms producing hourly
rainfall rates up to 1.5"/hr remain possible through the overnight
hours.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms located along and just south of a warm
front are also forming along a narrow outflow boundary to the
south. Storms in northern OH have produced over 2" of rainfall in
some spots per MRMS QPE and one LSR southwest of Canton reporting
2 feet of water over a road. Rounds upon rounds of storms are
likely to continue from eastern IN and northern OH to as far east
as the WV Panhandle and southeast PA this evening. RAP
mesoanalysis continues to show at least 1,000 J/kg of MUCAPE
available, effective bulk shear up to 30 kts, and anomalous PWs
between 1.25-1.5" at these storms disposal.

1-hr FFGs have decreased to as low as 1" in parts of northern OH
with all areas effectively below 1.5" thanks to this afternoon's
thunderstorm activity. 00Z HRRR continues to suggest the
persistent westerly 850-300mb mean layer winds aloft and low-level
winds supplying rich theta-e into the front will create a steady
diet of storms through the rest of the evening. 00Z HRRR 6-hr QPF
shows an additional 1-2" of rainfall are possible with localized
amounts over 3" possible between now and 08Z tonight. Given the
current state of ongoing flash flooding in the area, and more
excessive rainfall to come, additional flash flooding is likely.
Locally significant flash flooding is possible where another 1-2"
of rainfall occurs in areas that are already dealing with flash
flooding. Note that flooded roadways will be more difficult for
motorists to identify with the sun having now set. Motorists
should exercise caution if they must be on the roads tonight.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-QCHH8OMPmGnSUAQ6cvwhTQNlISQOO_u7xsNTki7vtduQ6Yfb8xqYks-ICD21qvewlZx= D--TDlxavanM4ZMdv7ipPA4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41218275 40998150 40778103 40268116 40118298=20
40358467 40628531 40898531 41188402=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040259
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-040857-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0078
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1058 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...portions of Oklahoma and north Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040257Z - 040857Z

Summary...Flash flood potential will continue for the next few
hours along the Red River Valley, north Texas, and central/eastern
Oklahoma.

Discussion...Recent radar depicts an expanding convective complex
over central Oklahoma, with embedded supercellular structures near
Shawnee, OK. This complex has recently produced 1-2 inch rainfall
totals over Oklahoma City metro over the past hour, with moderate
to high MRMS Flash responses suggesting likely urban flash
flooding in the area. The complex was moving eastward at an
appreciable pace (around 30 knots) toward
less-sensitive/less-urban ground conditions, which may result in
flash flood potential becoming more isolated with time. However,
increasing low-level flow over eastern Oklahoma was contributing
to an increase in deep convection ahead of this complex, with
mergers likely to support continued 1-2 inch/hr rates at times for
at least the next couple of hours along and south of the I-40
corridor. Some training on the southwestern flank of this complex
could also spread flash flood potential into the Ada, OK vicinity
over the next 1-3 hours as well.

Convection was also developing upstream along a southward-moving
front through southwest Oklahoma and the Childress, TX area. The
speed of the front should limit the degree of repeating/training
convection here, and rainfall should occur over areas that have
been relatively dry. Isolated flash flooding is possible in low
spots where repeating can bump hourly totals above the 1-1.5 inch
range.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8RR8Dwgx8Nc6M0A0rRRc7lEvTSp3Pc66kG1RjhwnissW-lHQcxBIxMjkCg_OVqBeydr1= NmrwFennnqw1AwUhDLDp2w8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36359490 35139451 33999530 32909765 33140060=20
33670158 34770059 35119820 35499746 36219682=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040417
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-040715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0079
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1216 AM EDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Areas affected...northeastern Illinois, northwestern Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040415Z - 040715Z

Summary...Training convection could persist for another couple
hours into southern suburbs of Chicago Metro.

Discussion...A persistent, SW-NE oriented band of convection has
trained along an axis very near I-55 between Joliet and Pontiac
over the past couple hours. The convection is becoming
progressively more elevated with time, but is persistent within a warm-advection regime located just above a stable boundary layer,
with ~1000 J/kg MUCAPE (per SPC mesoanalyses) supporting strong
updrafts. The orientation of the convection was supporting
prolonged rainfall, leading to rates in the 1-2 inch/hr range
(1-2X higher than estimated FFG in the region). Downstream
instability profiles are supportive of this band of convection
reaching southern sides of Chicago Metro and far northwestern
Indiana over the next couple hours, resulting in at least isolated
flash flood potential. Outside of this band, deepening showers
were noted across a broader portion of northern and central
Illinois that may repeat over some of the same areas in line for
heavy rain from the aforementioned band, but degree of
training/high-rain rates is uncertain.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5oGpcz_H95CrQ9P7DD1e772UzfPY8quem7gDqTHIPQBUNM21ddfJCYfx4tetiuCdKC1o= 5UVg3ubnlawvUTe_1gpyKOc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41888715 41528688 40948779 40988829 41278872=20
41738828=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040420
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-040715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0079
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1219 AM EDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Areas affected...northeastern Illinois, northwestern Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040415Z - 040715Z

Summary...Training convection could persist for another couple
hours into southern suburbs of Chicago Metro.

Discussion...A persistent, SW-NE oriented band of convection has
trained along an axis very near I-55 between Joliet and Pontiac
over the past couple hours. The convection is becoming
progressively more elevated with time, but is persistent within a warm-advection regime located just above a stable boundary layer,
with ~1000 J/kg MUCAPE (per SPC mesoanalyses) supporting strong
updrafts. The orientation of the convection was supporting
prolonged rainfall, leading to rates in the 1-2 inch/hr range
(1-2X higher than estimated FFG in the region). Downstream
instability profiles are supportive of this band of convection
reaching southern sides of Chicago Metro and far northwestern
Indiana over the next couple hours, resulting in at least isolated
flash flood potential. Outside of this band, deepening showers
were noted across a broader portion of northern and central
Illinois that may repeat over some of the same areas in line for
heavy rain from the aforementioned band, but degree of
training/high-rain rates is uncertain.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!95o1G44xhRAXek0_2DYk6pSIAZkkVhqDAI9oXcEzGf0JY7r_gN5CB_WeznGwL5J4COD_= ZWGH3d-nvcGE_myqltzA_K4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41888715 41528688 40948779 40988829 41278872=20
41738828=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041902
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-050101-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0080
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 PM EDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Areas affected...Eastern TX...North-Central LA...Southern
AR...Western MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041901Z - 050101Z

Summary...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to
increase in coverage across much of the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss
regions through the remainder of the afternoon and into the
evening hours. Areas with persistent training cells could get 1
inch/30 minute rainfall rates, which could result in a few
instances of flooding.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars and visible satellite imagery
are indicating a steady increase in convection developing along
and ahead of a strong cold front. Multiple broken line segments of
pre-frontal storms have developed well ahead of the main line
across much of central and northern Louisiana, and also across the
northwestern half of Mississippi. These storms are starting to
convectively train, leading to enhanced rainfall rates of 1-2
inches per hour, and in some instances an inch in under 30 minutes
where cell mergers happen. This will moisten the soils before the
main line of convection approaches with the front later this
afternoon and evening.

Recent runs of the RRFS and HRRR are indicating the potential for
scattered QPF maxima on the order of 2-4 inches through 00Z, with
much of this likely occurring within a 2-3 hour time period for
any given location. Although recent dry conditions across much of
the region is a mitigating factor, the higher rainfall rates may
be enough to result in a few instances of flooding, with a greater
potential for this across urban locations.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6TJ5Yo_BSMsrzRQZKvYUNRSR_uJFpYLZ3vmsP37NhCSEIVqSUE_Ps1NeodLAbn1FmHOR= 1J2GOMXYqyotTJXZK116pzA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...LZK...MEG...
SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34009043 33878966 33038933 31229040 30609073=20
30419127 30769249 30769317 30659377 30399455=20
30019552 29779623 29599690 29809730 30049737=20
30439708 30819659 31309628 31709580 31949548=20
32179511 32539463 32809414 33029372 33239315=20
33349270 33429238 33569207 33669169 33859109=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050127
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-050500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0081
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
925 PM EDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Areas affected...Southern LA and South-Central MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050125Z - 050500Z

Summary...Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue across
much of southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi through the
remainder of the evening hours, including extreme southeast Texas.
Areas with persistent training cells could get 1 inch/30 minute
rainfall rates, which could result in a few instances of flooding
through midnight.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars and visible satellite imagery
are indicating widespread convection along and ahead of an
approaching cold front. There are several multi-cell clusters that
have developed ahead of the main swath of convection associated
with the cold front, and these are aligned in the general low
level SSW winds and have been training over the past few hours.
Many locations across central Louisiana and central Mississippi
have already picked up 1-2 inches of rain over the past 6 hours,
and locally higher, therefore making the soils more saturated and
susceptible to potential flooding issues.

Recent runs of the RRFS and HRRR are indicating the potential for
scattered QPF maxima on the order of 1-3 inches through 5Z, with
much of this likely occurring within a 2-3 hour time period for
any given location. This activity should generally diminish in
intensity going into the overnight hours as instability decreases.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4n9bWHs3DcmJI-CImz_pLZablPamVMzuhPYprk6cRUQCVqx1EJYLMgrvMwg8I9H8V1ET= 1swjHN2IRCxAozGJzLikTOE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32978902 32908865 32708847 32308846 31608863=20
30838893 30148940 29799008 29729157 29749267=20
29929312 29999321 29999321 30389328 30679311=20
31149258 31689172 32199099 32609030 32918956=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050209
FFGMPD
TXZ000-050508-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0082
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1008 PM EDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Areas affected...Deep South Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050208Z - 050508Z

Summary...A cluster of deep convection should eventually spread
1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates into McAllen, TX and vicinity through
04-05Z.

Discussion...Deep convection has become increasingly organized
across primary rural areas of Deep South Texas over the area. The
storms are focused along an inverted surface trough extending into
the area from northeastern Mexico, with light southeasterly
low-level flow maintaining a surface airmass characterized by 80s
F surface temps/70s F dewpoints into that axis. Storms were
becoming more organized and developing cold pools/weak
supercellular structures, which isn't surprising given directional
shear through the troposphere. Southward propagation of this
cluster should spread areas of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates into the
McAllen, Texas area and vicinity, where urbanized surfaces may
pose a risk of flash flooding as the cells move through.

The overall synoptic scenario supporting heavy rainfall should
change little through 05Z or so as the weak inverted trough
persists and weak mid-level waves traverse the area. The
longevity of convection along the Rio Grande is a bit uncertain
and highly dependent on the local evolution of convection in that
area, which should be relatively slow given weak wind fields aloft.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6-PGiJtHrnrSTk1OIvgeZk0r5sWUOI26gjZ65SduasNkLAfkKNnkwDeGtAD4f9eftZcj= WdMnKW9T-MaPgYhBOS0pi_Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 26999850 26729741 25969739 26229887 26599905=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062108
FFGMPD
FLZ000-070200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0083
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
506 PM EDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Areas affected...Central Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062105Z - 070200Z

Summary...Slow moving thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage through the early evening hours across central Florida
near an approaching cold front. High rainfall rates up to 2
inches/30 minutes may lead to some instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars and GOES-E satellite imagery
are indicating a steady increase in slow moving thunderstorms
across inland portions of the central Florida Peninsula late this
afternoon. Several multi-cell clusters have been exhibiting signs
of back-building over the past 1-2 hours, and these are producing
outflow boundaries that will converge to generate additional slow
moving convection that may be heavier that what is currently
happening now. The environment is favorable for storms with high
rainfall rates given mixed layer CAPE on the order of 1000-1500
J/kg, PWs near 1.7 inches, and 20-30 knots of effective bulk shear
per the latest SPC mesoanalysis.

Recent CAM guidance through 2Z is portraying the potential for
scattered QPF maxima on the order of 3-5 inches with the most
persistent convection, and much of this is likely to fall within a
two hour time period for any given location. HREF neighborhood
exceedance probabilities of 3-hourly flash flood guidance are up
to roughly 30% between Orlando and Fort Myers, and there are some
low-end probabilities of 6-hour QPF reaching 100-year ARI for some
of these areas. Although this area is in a drought, the high
sub-hourly rainfall rates could be enough to overcome this
limitation and result in some instances of flash flooding through
10 pm local time.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_BCj-gL5y9Bht0KzO_qMa0emd3AmRjhExfsZOqRQ83_UtP26mbOpcV8kNYOWVCsm1DKi= ZcoPmWSl9HSE7FJnwRjG05M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28858171 28788116 28518087 28058066 27598059=20
27328077 27158090 26968105 26688088 26268101=20
26218148 26438174 27118228 27568238 28028244=20
28358242 28568237 28788213=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081826
FFGMPD
FLZ000-090025-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0084
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
225 PM EDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Areas affected...Treasure and Gold Coast of Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081825Z - 090025Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with a history of
rainfall rates over 2 inches/hour are impacting portions of the
Treasure and Gold Coast of Florida, with increasing concerns for
impacts over sensitive urban areas. Flash flooding is possible
where the cells are the most persistent through the afternoon and
early evening.

DISCUSSION...Persistently moist and relatively unstable low-level
easterly flow continues to focus areas of showers and some
occasional thunderstorms into the Atlantic Coast of Florida. Much
of the activity is aligned with the low-level steering flow and
has been focusing near the offshore Gulf Stream with extensions
westward into areas mainly south of Melbourne and especially areas
just north of Stuart where convection is more concentrated. More
scattered activity is situated farther south down the coast into
the I-95 urban corridor of southeast Florida.

Despite the relatively scattered nature of the coverage, with
southwesterly flow aloft (as opposed to easterly flow in the lower
levels), the extreme directional shear present across Florida is
making an environment favorable for slow-moving and training
storms. Daytime heating is also allowing for instability to
increase, currently ranging from 2,000 J/kg near Miami to near
1,500 J/kg near Melbourne based on SPC Mesoanalysis. Atmospheric
moisture also ranges from 1.7" PWAT near Miami to 1.4" near
Melbourne. Thus, the greatest threat for the heaviest rains are
further south down I-95.

Multiple days of rainfall across all of southern Florida this past
week has sufficiently saturated the soils. Thus, expect much of
any heavy rainfall today to favor increased runoff. Ultimately any
impacts and the magnitudes thereof will be dependent on where any
training cells develop relative to how urban the ground underneath
the cells is. With rates in the strongest cells later this
afternoon expected to potentially reach 3 inches/hour, localized
totals to 6 inches can't be ruled out. This in turn would result
in localized flooding. Regardless, expect that the storms that
will be capable of flash flooding to remain isolated to widely
scattered.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7reFGpJjrW38AH1Upf3utPD1RP59anTYXGOCvwwonvVJOkizU1tqghWCW4TM6SECp_jb= F2MXRT9fT1GHYMWwAo3DhII$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28028067 27988037 26947997 25957994 25598022=20
25498051 25708057 26008045 26288039 26648033=20
26938037 27298050 27528056 27828068=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 091025
FFGMPD
FLZ000-091500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0085
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
624 AM EDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Areas affected...east-central FL Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091017Z - 091500Z

Summary...Slow moving showers with possible embedded thunderstorms
are expected to focus isolated areas of heavy rain along the Space
and Treasure coasts through late morning. Localized hourly
rainfall of 2+ inches will be possible with storm totals of 2 to
4+ inches through 15Z, which may result in isolated flash flooding.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 10Z showed scattered
showers between southern Brevard County and southern St. Lucie
County. 10.3 micron satellite imagery indicated cloud tops over
land were relatively warm at -20 to -35 C, with an estimated cloud
depth of 9 km AGL based on RAP analysis soundings over the region.
Easterly winds of 20-30 kt in the 925-850 mb layer were oriented
perpendicular to the coast while mid-upper level flow was from the
west at a similar magnitude. This has set up favorable effective
shear profiles for organized cells although 0-8 km AGL mean layer
winds were about 5 kt or less, resulting in slow cell movement. In
addition, the alignment of showers with the low level wind has
also resulted in slow movement of heavy rain cores at times with
recent development near Vero Beach showing signs of a weak MCV
over eastern Indian River County. MRMS-derived and KVRB hourly
rainfall of 2-2.5 inches has been observed with nearly 2 inches of
rain in 32 minutes at KVRB ending 0940Z. Speed and weak
directional convergence near the surface was allowing for the
formation of quasi-transient bands of heavy rain within an
expanding pocket of MLCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg (06Z-10Z SPC
mesoanalyses) over the east coast of FL.

While the future existence of the weak meso-vortex near Vero Beach
is unknown, convergence in the surface to near-surface layer is
expected to continue a threat for slow moving showers with
embedded thunderstorms from Brevard County down to St. Lucie
County over the next 3-5 hours. However, the concentration of
heavy rain is expected to remain limited in spatial extent through
the morning hours. Any areas of flash flooding that develop are
likely to focus across urban and other areas of poor draining,
remaining localized in coverage.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9mIL8BFa2gasaYWoyUi5qRG3Of1RRU_n9PRYp394FRPLoJ3dKXYY6S7SbSiGb2zS-sgD= TGJYn7ZaxolHVDjniKRixg4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28608054 27788010 27008004 26998066 27908111=20
28528112=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100134
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-100730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0086
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
932 PM EDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Areas affected...Northeast KS...West-Central MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100133Z - 100730Z

SUMMARY...Upscale growth of organizing supercellular convection
into a multi-cell cluster/MCS will promote a localized and
primarily urban flash flood threat going into the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar and GOES-E IR satellite imagery
depict a cluster of supercells along a slow-moving cold front near
the KS/NE border. These storms are undergoing upscale growth, with
supporting factors including fairly strong effective bulk shear of
to 40 to 50 kts and MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500+ J/kg. Over the last
hour, this has favored an expansion of deep, cold convective tops
and intense updrafts.

As the 850 mb low-level jet veers and intensifies to over 40 kts
over the next several hours, low-level convergence will sharpen
along the western and southern flanks of the convective mass. With
storm motions of 15 to 25 kts generally parallel to the mean flow
and the boundary, periods of cell-training and cell-mergers are
expected. This will compensate for modest PWs of about 1.25 inches
and drive potential for high rainfall rates that may reach 1.5 to
2.5 inches/hour within the strongest cores and where any
cell-mergers occur.

While NASA SPoRT 0 to 10 cm soil moisture indicates significant
infiltration capacity in rural northeast KS, the 18Z HREF PMM and
neighborhood probabilities suggest localized 2 to 4 inch totals
are likely. These totals will approach and may locally exceed FFG
values and especially within the more sensitive urban corridors.
Areas downstream including Topeka, Kansas City and St. Joseph may
eventually see this activity later in the night. As such, the
concern over the next several hours, aside from well-defined
severe hazards with large hail, will be a localized and mainly
urban flash flood threat.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_V7P-J8QajZr8lmjAAmMYppb9LFmhtmko5uyNfAQNigk4X-nlxLjoH4L5j2wU9TvIs0M= nU_APk1NO-Lbst4Tpg4ANoA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40059625 39869477 39589418 38989419 38569493=20
38389618 38599761 38989810 39639790=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 101901
FFGMPD
OKZ000-110100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0087
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Areas affected...North-Central to Northeast OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101900Z - 110100Z

SUMMARY...Locally training areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms will pose a threat for some urban flash flooding
going through early this evening.

DISCUSSION...Cooling convective tops are seen in GOES-E IR
satellite imagery becoming aligned in a general west to east
fashion across portions of north-central to northeast OK in close
proximity to a quasi-stationary front. Heavy showers and
thunderstorms are becoming a bit more concentrated with this
activity, and the latest radar trends suggest slow cell-motions
and some increasing cell-training concerns.

The activity is being facilitated by moist and unstable low-level
southwest flow into the boundary with MLCAPE values of as much as
1500 to 2000 J/kg and PWs of 1.2 to 1.4 inches across the region.
Despite relatively modest kinematic wind fields, there is an axis
of moderate moisture convergence in vicinity of the front, and
this coupled with increasing differential heating/instability near
the axis of convection should tend to sustain the convective
threat over the next few hours.

Generally the antecedent conditions are quite dry, with low soil
moisture content, but the rainfall rates with some of the ongoing
activity is already locally near 1.5 inches/hour. This coupled
with the slow cell-motions may favor some short-term totals of 2
to 4+ inches going through early this evening.

An isolated and mainly urban threat of flash flooding will exist
over the next few hours as a result, and this will include areas
from near Stillwater to Tulsa and along with adjacent communities.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7OMNe7bjzHGDuwRqcrOJ2shcTqUhlC8m8hS1dASOvDqJHGktya8xtEnuVl08ZovWkQ9-= eoQLKiJCVgHcmzqf1PHbDHk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36599485 36349471 35939536 35829684 35999767=20
36369765 36489701 36469622=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 102142
FFGMPD
TXZ000-110200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0088
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
541 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Texas including the Houston
Metropolitan area

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102141Z - 110200Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving, outflow-driven thunderstorms interacting
over highly urbanized areas will be capable of producing localized
rainfall rates of 2+ inches/hour. Isolated totals of 3 to 4 inches
may rapidly overwhelm municipal drainage, making localized flash
flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar and satellite trends depict scattered,
slow-moving clusters of thunderstorms developing across southeast
Texas. The thermodynamic environment is characterized by a moist,
weakly convergent low-level flow off the Gulf of America, with
PWATs near 1.75 inches and MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg. While
deep-layer shear remains weak (effective bulk shear 20-30 kts),
weak upper-level divergence is supplying modest deep-layer ascent,
aiding in some maintenance of robust, high-efficiency updrafts.

Given the weak steering flow, the convective mode is primarily
pulse-type and outflow-dominant. The immediate flash flood threat
will be driven by mesoscale boundary interactions. Regional radar
currently shows multiple outflow boundaries in play?most notably
one positioned southwest of the Houston metro and another near
IAH. As these boundaries interact over the next few hours,
mechanical lift may force rapid, near-stationary convective
development and upscale growth directly over more sensitive urban
locations.

Rainfall rates have already approached 2 inches/hour with the
strongest cells. High-resolution guidance, particularly the HRRR
which has initialized the current convective evolution well,
suggests these boundary collisions will support isolated
additional rainfall totals of 3 to 4 inches through early this
evening. Furthermore, the 12Z HREF highlights 10-30% probabilities
for 3-hour FFG exceedance this over the next several hours. Given
the high impervious surface coverage across the Houston metro,
these rates and accumulations may overwhelm local drainage systems
and bayous, leading to isolated areas of rapid-onset urban flash
flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8UfP-FaEBTsYZq-U1BJISNdMdxS4kIjqF_7XutdEJFcVHfKrrsDx-b0npcVgfvZAwJZw= 5TdXzeXil7_qMLwkC4AGQLA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31059623 30659519 30319469 29999457 29479462=20
28919531 28909635 29599753 30359774 30939727=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110515
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-111000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0089
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
114 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Areas affected...northeastern KS into southern/southeastern NE and
the MO Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110507Z - 111000Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible from portions
of northeastern KS into southern/southeastern NE and the MO Valley
through 10Z. Brief training of thunderstorms will be capable of
1-2 in/hr rain rates.

DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms were increasing in coverage
across north-central KS into far southern NE as seen on area radar
imagery through 05Z. The cells were elevated, displaced well north
of a west-east oriented quasi-stationary front in OK, within an
airmass containing 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE per 05Z SPC mesoanalysis
data. Since 00Z, Southerly 850 mb winds have been strengthening
with 30-40 kt in place at 05Z per VAD wind data from northern OK
into southern NE. PWAT values were estimated to be between 1.0 and
1.3 inches across the central Plains with continued moisture
advection likely to increase PWAT values into the MO River Valley
through the night.

Some additional strengthening of the 850 mb flow into the 40-45 kt
range across KS is expected over the next 3-4 hours and the
approach of a weak shortwave impulse over southwestern KS should
continue an increasing trend in the coverage of elevated
showers/thunderstorms from northeastern KS into
southern/southeastern NE over the next few hours. As 850 mb winds
increase overnight, some veering of the low level flow is also
expected, bringing the low level wind orientation closer to the
mean steering flow from the SW. Given the moisture, instability
and forecast winds, some instances of training are likely to
result in hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches. These higher rates
should remain limited in coverage but flash flood guidance is at
or below 2 inches in 3 hours for much of the region, due in part
to locally heavy rainfall over the past 36 hours. Therefore,
localized flash flooding may result overnight with 1 to 3+ inch
total rainfall possible.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!48qr4XsdiFtClShi6w-ZrnC2lWuijYOSz66OvZpJ5YDM_U5fNmZMtF-REmLIPl0U20QT= 1Yeb5phRPebNuvpJ0GHXGlw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41329712 41299612 41169573 40809531 40499501=20
40259485 39909472 39469469 39099484 38789510=20
38589566 38619653 39009760 39669878 40339891=20
40899846=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110955
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-111330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0090
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
554 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Areas affected...northeastern KS/southeastern NE into southwestern IA/northwestern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110953Z - 111330Z

SUMMARY...A localized flash flood threat will linger for another
few hours from northeastern KS/southeastern NE into southwestern IA/northwestern MO. The primary concern will be from
repeating/training of thunderstorms which will be capable of 1 to
2+ in/hr rain rates.

DISCUSSION...A NW to SE axis of thunderstorms was observed on
radar imagery at 0930Z from the KS/NE border near Superior, NE to
near Westmoreland in northeastern KS. The slow moving axis has
been associated with MRMS-derived hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+
inches over the past couple of hours but the axis of thunderstorms
appears to be slowly shifting northeast. 850 mb winds of 3o to 40+
kt continued to overrun a warm front slowly lifting north from
central OK with an axis of elevated convergence helping to focus
the cluster of heavy rain beneath a ridge axis aloft locally
aiding diffluent flow in the upper levels. A subtle shortwave was
also observed on water vapor imagery earlier in the night and is
likely approaching central KS with forecast movement toward the
northeast, around the ridge, helping to support lift.

850 mb wind speed magnitudes have likely peaked and recent RAP
forecasts showed gradual weakening through 15Z following the
diurnal cycle. However, ~25 to 35 kt of SSW 850 mb winds over
eastern KS will continue to overrun the surface boundary to the
south and the weak shortwave impulse approaching central KS from
the southwest will continue to provide ascent from northeastern KS
into the MO River Valley. Instability will be a limiting factor as
current values of MUCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg are forecast to
lower as moisture advection shifts the instability eastward across
the MO River.

The axis of heavy rain will likely translate eastward over the
next few hours with continued periods of training/repeating cells
with 1 to 2+ in/hr rainfall rates. This will continue to pose a
localized threat for flash flooding from northeastern
KS/southeastern NE into northwestern MO and possibly southwestern
IA. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is expected through 14Z
with locally higher flash flood potential where overlap occurs
with wet antecedent conditions over northeastern KS due to locally
heavy rain over the past 36 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8QQxASh5-vvLIyl0bOPmA5lpyQV8ph24pEYcquvTGWv9coFrhCZ5EnwIYxnrAS6KQ6_k= hg_4xliiOI76F61lkLRs1XE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...GID...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 41019522 40889393 40389350 39719368 39169441=20
39049551 39189654 39689754 40029835 40609801=20
40819704=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 111337
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-111636-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0091
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
936 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Areas affected...Northeastern Kansas...Northwest Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111336Z - 111636Z

Summary...Training of thunderstorms containing 1-2"/hr rainfall
rates will maintain the threat of localized flash flooding for
another few hours, primarily over portions of northeastern Kansas.

Discussion...Regional radar this morning continues to track a west
to east axis of training thunderstorms within a slow moving MCS
near the Kansas-Nebraska border. Recent MRMS estimated hourly
rainfall rates have eclipsed 2"/hr at times in the heaviest cells
at times. When combined with the slow net movement of the complex
(Corfidi Vectors are around 10-15 kts), 4-5" of rainfall led to at
least three reports of flash flood impacts in northern Kansas this
morning.

As highlighted earlier, the activity remains tied to a 35-40kt
low-level jet which is bisecting a west-east oriented cold pool
and synoptic front amid locally diffluent flow aloft. Radar
imagery also suggests the presence of a weak MCV embedded in the
complex which could locally enhance ascent in the area. Over the
next few hours, the RAP suggests 30-35 kts of 850 mb inflow
bisecting the west-east boundary could maintain the complex for a
few more hours, even with modest instability in place (~500 J/kg
MUCAPE). Much of the overnight CAM guidance has struggled with the
placement and intensity of this complex. However, the ARW seems to
have a better handle on the current activity and suggests the
training axis could persist for the next few hours. As such, the
threat of localized flash flooding will persist this morning, with
an additional 1-2" of rain possible.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7JDOHnwHVyoR9jvHIv4Dnizxwzt84oyH6DeI-4eZAhUKsKh7HBFJN6Ci6MbF7c57gFaW= ya8_oxZmjL-r0Fiq-jZ10xE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 40259601 40219520 40019439 39599433 39489490=20
39379618 39389653 39449696 39759714 39979690=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 112028
FFGMPD
TXZ000-120226-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0092
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of western TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 112026Z - 120226Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and
intensity. Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" with local totals to 4"
are possible into this evening, which could lead to widely
scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...A region of 850 hPa confluence is slowly moving
across western TX. Convection across the TX Big Bend is sending
out an outflow boundary to the east. Precipitable water values
are ~1.25". An incoming shortwave is moving across northwest
Mexico, enhancing difluence aloft and increasing the effective
bulk shear to 25-45 kts. ML CAPE is 500-2000 J/kg, and rising.

With time, the area of 850 hPa confluence edges eastward across
portions of the TX Big Bend, Trans Pecos, and northwest TX. The
GFS-based Galvez-Davison Index implies that increasing convective
coverage and intensity should maximize in the 00z-03z time frame.=20
The shifting of the low-level confluence axis should keep amounts
from becoming particularly extreme. The available ingredients
suggest that hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" with local totals to
4" would be possible in this environment. Since Flash Flood
Guidance is modest, widely scattered flash flooding impacts are
considered possible. Urban areas and locations with minimal top
soil in western portions of South-Central TX would be most
sensitive to these rainfall rates/amounts.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6S6CodPXk1xunr7JwSe-qfaJRSzvcJUN_gfh9rSEMdEsInWsF0bToaBGQrG4Q__GFerO= bHIbaYGzFZOD7tsUELiUuZM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34550074 34309932 33279892 32129929 31020003=20
29800112 29510153 29590244 29080278 28910311=20
29070379 29560431 31090307 33270244=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120257
FFGMPD
TXZ000-120715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0093
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1056 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of the middle Rio Grande Valley into the
Edwards Plateau

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 120252Z - 120715Z

Summary...Training of thunderstorms is likely to produce areas of
flash flooding from portions of the middle Rio Grande Valley into
the Edwards Plateau over the next 4-5 hours. Peak hourly rainfall
could exceed 2 or 3 inches at times.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 0230Z showed a broken line
of strong convection extending from near SJT to the Rio Grande,
roughly halfway between 6R6 and DRT. This line has been
propagating slowly toward the east but northern portions of the
line have been quicker to translate east compared to southern
portions. MRMS-derived hourly rainfall briefly exceeded 2 inches
along the Rio Grande in Val Verde County within the past hour due
to training as the NNE to SSW line orientation aligns with the
mean steering flow.

Large scale ascent ahead of an upper trough axis tracking across
AZ/NM and northwestern Mexico will continue over central TX
overnight and 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast to remain in place
(higher values to the south) which should help to fuel intense
cores of heavy rain. A strengthening low level jet with speeds of
30-40 kt, oriented parallel to the Rio Grande, will act to
transport moisture into the ongoing complex with the slowest
movement of the convective line likely to remain near the Rio
Grande, though brief hangups farther north will continue to remain
possible, supportive of SSW to NNE training. The moisture rich
environment with PWs of 1.5 to 1.7 inches and increasingly
divergent/diffluent flow ahead of the upper trough will aid lift
and allow hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, but locally exceeding
2 or perhaps 3 inches at times. While the best potential for the
highest rain rates will remain toward the south, these higher
rates may overlap with portions of the Edwards Plateau which
contain greater sensitivity to flash flooding.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8TCPlAIuJOCoKdzncLt3D4dOp7-uC7Z02-DnORb5M7WF4hNu72dCxZYm4zIwjG3KZecP= Ar1IoDWt7NLkNFlA8tY8-OM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31779963 31379895 30349869 29649894 28929998=20
28780081 29060090 29510140 29640177 30060169=20
31190070=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120421
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-120920-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0094
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1220 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Areas affected...north-central TX into south-central OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120419Z - 120920Z

SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered instances of flash
flooding will be possible from north-central TX into south-central
OK through 09Z. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches (locally higher)
will be possible with 2 to 4 inches in 2-3 hours.

DISCUSSION...04Z radar imagery showed the northern portion of a
convective line moving into the Edwards Plateau was getting
slightly better organized over the past hour as it moved eastward
across I-20. Instability was on the weak side with 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE estimated via SPC mesoanalysis data and the 00Z FWD
sounding, along with PWs near 1.5 inches near and south of the Red
River. Water vapor imagery showed a couple of weaker vorticity
maxima over western TX, ahead of the main upper level shortwave
trough axis across northwestern Mexico which will continue to
provide ascent into the weakly unstable airmass downstream across
central TX into OK tonight.

RAP forecast guidance showed favorably diffluent flow aloft
maintaining over central TX into southern OK through 12Z Sunday.
Expectations are for the current axis of thunderstorms to continue
slowly advancing NNE and E ahead of the upper forcing to the west,
with transient axes of training helping to support 1 to 2+ in/hr
rain rates and possible flash flooding. While the main concern for
higher rates will be with the leading edge of the convective line,
there will be some potential for locally higher rates/training to
refocus to the west of the line as it shifts downstream due to the
diffluent flow aloft and an upstream impulse advancing
northeastward toward the Trans Pecos region of western TX as seen
on water vapor imagery.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-_-Q2hwEx7KarPBlHVSKjNr9BaEBTzQF2g4CKp3yUTtW7BuT45-6zIl9IGBqLsyjXz7B= olzEoDsYjDrWAyUfbyocJiQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35979748 35879671 35639634 35089609 34309618=20
33629639 32879660 31959737 31309902 31389998=20
32180015 33440001 34719940 35699834=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120831
FFGMPD
TXZ000-121330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0095
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
429 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Areas affected...Middle Rio Grande Valley into central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120828Z - 121330Z

SUMMARY...While the threat is not certain, the potential for at
least localized flash flooding will continue across the middle Rio
Grande Valley into portions of central TX this morning. The
possibility of peak hourly rainfall of 1 to 3 inches will linger
through 13Z.

DISCUSSION...08Z radar imagery showed a weakening squall line over
central TX, moving east toward I-35, north of Austin, where a
relative lull in instability was estimated over central TX via 08Z
SPC mesoanalysis data (peaking near 500 J/kg MLCAPE) while
500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE remained west of I-35 and south of I-10
within the middle Rio Grande Valley. The orientation of the
remnant squall line or outflow boundary was from NE to SW across
the Edwards Plateau to the Rio Grande near Del Rio, generally
aligned with the mean steering flow, resulting in less forward
motion for the southern portion of the outflow boundary. Isolated
convective activity was observed north of the outflow boundary and
south of the Rio Grande over northern Coahuila's Serranias del
Burro.

VAD wind plots showed that 35-40 kt of 850 mb southerly inflow
remained over the lower Rio Grande Valley into the Edwards Plateau
and atop the rain-cooled outflow boundary. Meanwhile, water vapor
imagery showed an approaching lead shortwave trough over the Big
Bend Country, advancing northeastward. Lift ahead of this feature
was evidenced by the recent shower/thunderstorm development over
northern Coahuila. It seems plausible that additional development
may occur along the southwestern flank of outflow, tied to the
eastward translating MCS over central TX with mean steering flow
supporting training from SW to NE, within the lingering
instability max. Aloft, a 90-110 kt upper level jet streak is
forecast to cross the Rio Grande and advance into western OK
through the morning hours, placing favorable right-entrance region
ascent over the Edwards Plateau. In addition, RAP forecasts showed
largely uninhibited MLCAPE returning northward back across eastern
portions of the Edwards Plateau and the I-35 corridor this morning
due to continued low level moisture transport. Therefore, while
coverage of additional thunderstorms remains unclear, at least a
localized flash flood threat will continue over the middle Rio
Grande Valley into portions of central TX through at least 13Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_3FlNpW6BRCKRKImp4hH3qvBATr_8e3WL0zq0GV47pVlRjal9jyjHcjYCG8Ay8XtKy5l= 5F2VyGGL6b2WxpXiEWjjrEo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31999652 31529594 30669610 30109658 29399760=20
28769895 28629991 28650054 28770069 29250104=20
29710163 30460033 31119904 31969747=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 121619
FFGMPD
TXZ000-122217-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0096
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1218 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Areas affected...South-Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121617Z - 122217Z

Summary...Increasing potential for flash flooding this afternoon
as thunderstorms containing 2-3"/hr rainfall rates develop in the
next 2-3 hours and congeal into an MCS. Locally significant flash
flooding is possible, especially atop sensitive urban areas in the
region.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are showing increased
development across South-Central Texas late this morning as a very
moist airmass continues to destabilize. An intense, localized
cluster of thunderstorms near Gonzales county recently exhibited
2.5-3"/hr rainfall rates according to MRMS and KEWX. When combined
with slow forward motions around 20 kts, a corridor of FFG
exceedance was noted over the last 15 minutes.=20

These early storms are tapping into a very favorable environment
for efficient heavy rainfall production; 12Z RAOB from BRO and
ACARS profiles from AUS and SAT depict a deep moist layer from the
surface to 750 mb (PWAT of 1.7-1.8"), tall instability profiles
characterized by 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE, and WBZ heights over
3500 m. An inversion above the moist layer has thus far suppressed
more widespread development, although this is expected to weaken
over time as large scale ascent strengthens over the next few
hours while the column continues to moisten.

As such, thunderstorms are expected to expand in coverage and
intensity over the next few hours. By 17-18z, the 12z CAM suite is
in good agreement for this activity to congeal into an MCS
containing training thunderstorms along a NE-SW axis -- possibly
along a remnant cold pool evident in surface obs. Forecast Corfidi
vectors near 10 kts suggest this complex will be quite slow to
move once it develops, in turn lengthening the residence time of
2-3"/hr rainfall rates within the strongest individual cells.
While the area has been dry according to NASA SPoRT soil moisture
percentiles, the risk of flash flooding is expected to increase
over the next 6 hours as 3-6" fall in the main axis of training.
Significant flash flooding is possible should this fall over a
sensitive urban area.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6l5fxvgg0Ga24XrcAiL7fdIFH_5gslDM_qZveZxQ_cc0YwW17qlWHwCr4bDlkiesKVsA= EMVZR837bFWVyXMVWomDxKs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31379590 30859516 29989564 29049725 28959831=20
29579882 30369847 31079733=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 122018
FFGMPD
TXZ000-130216-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0097
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 122016Z - 130216Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are developing across portions
of central TX. Hourly rain amounts to 3" with local totals to 5"
are possible, which could lead to scattered instances of flash
flooding over partially saturated soils.

Discussion...The combination of shortwaves aloft crossing the
TX/OK border and northern Mexico have led to a difluent pattern
aloft across the region. Precipitable water values are 1.5-1.8"
per GPS data. Effective bulk shear of ~50 kts exists. ML CAPE is
around 2000 J/kg (higher to the west and lower to the east).

Inflow at 850 hPa slowly backs with time as the upper level
shortwave in northern MX approaches, which along with no
additional eastward progress in the instability gradient should
hold up forward forward propagation to the northeast. The 12z
GFS-based Galvez-Davison index implies that the current convective
uptick maximizes in the 21-00z period before slowly fading
thereafter in this area. Both the 12z HREF and 12z REFS have a
heavy rainfall signal across the region, though of differing
magnitudes. Given the above ingredients which favor mesocyclone
formation and cell training, along with the possibility that
storms of different levels of organization could merge, hourly
amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" are possible. Given the
recently compromised flash flood guidance values due to recent
heavy rainfall, scattered instances of flash flooding are
possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8j2UxM1SGtHNsq_QI1ob82WzX2FdtDrZMFk4nPqkt6h33-miTPan9qw8F2P0QPMkg4eY= Z1hEz4csPMkB4OnF9cs_Ej8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32359813 32339732 31189682 29479732 29309826=20
30019894 31669899=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 122101
FFGMPD
TXZ000-130259-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0098
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 122059Z - 130259Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with some level of organization will
continue to attempt to train into this evening. Hourly amounts to
3" with additional local totals to 5" are possible, which could
lead to scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall have been moving
east-northeast inland of the Middle & Upper TX Coasts near the
tail end of an MCV moving through portions of MO, which shows up
as an eastward branch of the 850 hPa inflow/convergence. Earlier
this afternoon, hourly rain amounts were quite high, though
they've settled back towards 2.5-3" as of late. Precipitable
water values are 1.8-2" per GPS data. ML CAPE is 1000-1500 J/kg.=20
Effective bulk shear is 25-35 kts which is organizing convection.

Both the 12z REFS and 18z HREF are at least a county too far
inland with this convective activity. While their six hour
probabilities show a tendency for the activity to approach the
TX/LA border, the REFS hourly probabilities in particular are
fairly far to the east/too quick when compared to recent radar
reflectivity imagery. A combination of cell training and embedded
mesocyclones appear to be the main cause for heavy rainfall in
this region, though merging convection cannot be ruled out could
any cells form south of the band and approach it. ML CAPE
supports the idea of this activity making a run for the LA border,
but with decreasing instability with time, there could be a
tendency for increased forward propagation/decreased precipitation
amounts with time. With somewhat higher instability to the north
the farther east you go in this region, thunderstorm activity may
try to correct towards the 18z HREF solution and edge a little
more northward as well. Hourly rain amounts to 3" with additional
local totals to 5" remain possible, which could lead to scattered
instances of flash flooding.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5nMBgV5t9cCt79LlQETJWpm7K6GjQ240BRaV-E-svg4sWr9O9XPQSrTHrurNmmfxbRjA= aPMRiPqOIy0SlzDTLr2vtxk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31319378 30159385 29649511 29629620 29979635=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 130324
FFGMPD
TXZ000-130700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0099
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1123 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Areas affected...central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 130322Z - 130700Z

Summary...A small, slow moving cluster of thunderstorms is
expected to maintain peak rainfall rates of 2 to 3+ in/hr and
localized flash flooding across portions of central TX over the
next 2-4 hours. Afterward, eastward translation and weakening is
anticipated.

Discussion...03Z radar imagery showed a small thunderstorm cluster
over and just west of the Colorado River in San Saba and Llano
counties. This cluster has had a history of backbuilding and
training with observed hourly rainfall of 2.5 inches and
MRMS-derived estimates locally over 3 inches over San Saba County.
It was located just on the cool side of an elongated, remnant
outflow boundary from earlier on Sunday that extended from near
New Braunfels into the Hill Country and northward across I-20,
just east of Abilene. Water vapor imagery showed a number of
vorticity maxima embedded within the WSW flow aloft. At 03Z, a
more notable vorticity max was located just northeast of San
Antonio, with another more subtle feature over Concho and Menard
counties, west of the ongoing thunderstorms.

Expectations are for low level flow overrunning the outflow to
continue to support thunderstorms over portions of central TX
within a moderately unstable airmass characterized by 1500 to
2000+ J/kg MLCAPE and PWs of 1.5 to 1.7 inches (SPC mesoanalysis).
However, passage of the vorticity maxima/shortwave features aloft
should cause the ongoing activity to shift east in another couple
of hours while additional development occurs downstream toward the
east, with eventual weakening as increasing CIN is encountered
toward the east. There is some uncertainty with exactly how long
the backbuilding signature will continue over San Saba and Llano
counties, but current thinking is that the passage of the embedded
impulses aloft should disrupt the ongoing activity within the next
2-3 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8pcpmXpFhE2czLV347fybNztipkC3atoiLr2jFxkU4IQKY_67vA06heOHYA0UdhIf3n0= ErkfDhUi8YwEmk5Z5Ni57eA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32069713 31929682 31659668 31359660 31129663=20
30859695 30689738 30599828 30679895 30929919=20
31089929 31379914 31579875 31879812 32039757=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 132142
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-140330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0100
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
541 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Areas affected...Much of Wisconsin, Southeastern Minnesota, and
U.P. of Michigan

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 132140Z - 140330Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms forming along a warm frontal boundary will
organize into training lines of storms, over an area of saturated
soils through this evening. Flash flooding likely.

DISCUSSION... Several areas of convection have begun to form along
a warm frontal boundary across much of Wisconsin and southeast
Minnesota this afternoon. These storms are being fed by moisture
influx with PWATs around 1 inch along the front, but over 1.3
inches along the Illinois/Wisconsin border, based on the latest
SPC Mesoanalysis. CAMs guidance is in good agreement that the
storms will continue to grow upscale into an MCS that will then
support training storms propagating eastward across central and
northern Wisconsin. A cold front shown across northern Minnesota
will press southeastward and eventually help to push the MCS
southward with time.

Soils across Minnesota and Wisconsin are nearly saturated due to
recent rainfall and around the U.P. of Michigan, recent snowmelt
as shown on NASA SPoRT imagery. With above average river levels
and nearly saturated soils across nearly all of Wisconsin, almost
all of the rainfall expected from this forecast MCS will convert
to runoff quickly. FFGs across this region on average are around
1.5 inches/1 hour, 2 inches/3 hours, and 2.5 inches/6 hours. These
values are likely to be exceeded with multiple rounds of training
storms expected late this afternoon and this evening. The cells
south of the Twin Cities have a history of rainfall rates
exceeding 2 inches/hour at times, showing that the atmosphere is
capable of rates exceeding these aforementioned FFG values.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7G1XSLTDBBKEgE6KnC6HjiSFk-T-6U4Bgr0ABoBXm8-JrDZHBYlj134353NlsdE9nf1H= lWiBku11TKmoojCTL9tJ1SM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...GRB...MKX...MPX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46828894 46588739 45458680 44468747 43548763=20
43368904 43429003 43509140 43739228 44039312=20
44719364 45179376 45829361 46349312 46619141=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 132331
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-140330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0101
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
730 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Areas affected...Southwest Minnesota and Northwest Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 132330Z - 140330Z

SUMMARY... Clusters of storms are forming across portions of
southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa this evening. Localized
rain rates to 2" per hour could cause isolated to widely scattered
instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION... Convective coverage has rapidly increased across
portions of southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa this evening as
part of a broader low pressure center and warm frontal system,
tapping into Gulf moisture riding up to the south and east of
these features. Rainfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour have
been observed on radar, with somewhat moistened soils in the area
from recent rainfall, based on NASA SPoRT imagery.

CAMs guidance is in poor agreement in this area, with none of the
guidance suggesting convective coverage would be as robust in this
area than has already formed. For those that have a hint of the
southern extent of this convection (NAMnest, ARW to a lesser
extent, and HRRR to an even lesser extent), all suggest much
faster and more eastward motions to these storms than have already
been occurring. Thus, with slower and more northward storm
motions, towards areas where storms have already formed across far
southern Minnesota, expect more robust training and heavier
rainfall rates than the guidance is suggesting, favoring more
potential for flash flooding over the next few hours.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6X1tqeZU-LUfkuQOxQe1ZCk91388CwJGlSqrn-Xsd_p7IlWiLuBHXrVEhhbbR6vhNbAj= BNCnIg_odYgJqLuN6203qEk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45369378 44999377 44649360 44179331 43929301=20
43769257 43649215 43449216 43129229 42679296=20
42619447 42549518 42579577 42809622 43209651=20
43539693 44139664 44909551 45309470 45349421=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 140347
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-140800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0102
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1145 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Areas affected...southern WI into central/northern Lower MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 140344Z - 140800Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding will be likely from southern WI
into central/northern Lower MI over the next 4-5 hours. Saturated
to nearly saturated soils are expected to be a contributing factor
to excess runoff from rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr.

Discussion...0320Z radar imagery across the Upper Midwest showed
an MCS with an elongated convective line on its southern flank,
oriented west-east from the MN/WI/IA tri-state region into
northwestern Lower MI. The cluster of thunderstorms were located
along a quasi-stationary front that extended west to east through
central WI/MI with 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over northeastern
IA, lowest over Lower MI) estimated just south of the boundary per
03Z SPC mesoanalysis data. Infrared imagery showed cloud tops
continued to cool with divergence aloft aided within the
right-entrance region of a 110-130 kt upper level jet streak
positioned over Lake Superior into southern Quebec. 850 mb VAD
wind data showed 50-60 kt of SSW flow from eastern IA into
northern IL and southern WI, aiding rapid moisture transport
across Lake Michigan into Lower MI with upstream moisture over the
Midwest between 1.2 and 1.4 inches.

As the main surface low along the front in northwestern IA
advances ENE tonight, continued southerly flow ahead of the low
into the ongoing complex of storms should sustain convection
within the unstable airmass for several more hours. Mean cell
motions from the W to SW will interact with the southerly low
level inflow allowing for segments of the line to advance
southeastward at times. Cell mergers and training within the
linear segments of the MCS will attain rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr
at times with an overall movement toward the east through 08Z.
Most soils across the region are saturated due to snowmelt and/or
recent rainfall, with additional heavy rainfall more quickly
translating into runoff compared to average. Therefore, areas of
flash flooding are likely to occur across southern WI into Lower
MI over the next 4-5 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7L1O-mnGFqvdnGQKawceVca5wKPKEE_53aZyZ3QByeXtRcHpH_iNlJdj0PPvcB--9qxe= 996tFkVy9okNckkMMmvxAfw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...ARX...DTX...GRB...GRR...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45818459 45288327 44528305 43748367 42798585=20
42498773 42528950 42719070 43409120 44019101=20
44319034 44578902 45028737 45468637=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 141802
FFGMPD
INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-150000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0103
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Areas affected...Eastern IA...Southern WI...Northern and Eastern
IL...Western and Central IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141800Z - 150000Z

SUMMARY...Developing and expanding clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms coupled with locally wet/sensitive antecedent
conditions will foster an isolated to scattered threat for flash
flooding going through early this evening.

DISCUSSION...Early afternoon GOES-E visible satellite imagery
shows stronger diurnal heating promoting a steady destabilization
of the boundary layer across eastern IA, western IL and nosing
into southwest WI. This airmass is pooling south and east of a
quasi-stationary front as multiple waves of low pressure advance
along it.

Some modest CINH remains in place across these areas, but MLCAPE
values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg are already in place, and this is
being supported by steep mid-level lapse rates transiting the
Midwest. Meanwhile, satellite imagery shows a modest mid-level
shortwave impulse ejecting northeastward across central and
eastern IA down through northern MO and into western IL. This
energy coupled with additional solar insolation should erode the
remaining CAP across the region and set the stage for convective
initiation. Much of this should be focused in close proximity to a leftover/diffuse outflow boundary from the early-day convection.

As convection grows upscale, there will gradually be concerns for
a few cell-mergers and some cell-training. A combination of
multicells and supercells will be likely given the strong
instability in conjunction with strong shear (effective bulk shear
approaching 50 kts). The larger scale environment is also
increasingly moist with aid from a southwest low-level jet of 30
to 40+ kts. Deeper layer southwesterly moisture transport is noted
aloft too with elevated CIRA-LVT magnitudes.

Locally significant model disagreement is noted through this
evening with the placement of the convection and its general
evolution, but a multi-model consensus suggests eastern IA,
northern IL and southern WI seeing one focus for convection, with
areas of central/eastern IL and into western IN seeing a second
focus.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour,
with some localized totals by early this evening of 2 to 4 inches.
The antecedent conditions are locally quite sensitive, and
especially from eastern IA through northern IL and southern WI.
Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible as
a result.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6rVoRhS9MtZ95Sj6aCH05vO57EMIhqP-DU7yZfIuOyX3spDEUeEb69FAjBiqp3DRaLHv= v5fBXogv1SsUKymmwi2Cj7Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43969015 43808891 43378810 42458766 41648679=20
41038574 40368523 39538567 39238682 39538845=20
40048943 41199043 41619249 41909331 42369330=20
42689297 43329238 43909121=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 142204
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-150402-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0104
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
603 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of western North Texas and the
southeastern Texas Plains into southern and central Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 142202Z - 150402Z

Summary...Ongoing convective evolution suggests an increasing
flash flood threat for areas near Vernon, Lawton, and eventually
toward the I-35 corridor in central Oklahoma through 04Z/11p
Central.

Discussion...Scattered, deep convection continues to increase in
coverage across western north Texas and southwestern Oklahoma.=20
Recent surface obs indicate subtle veering of flow west of a
dryline across the Texas South Plains, and objective
analyses/satellite suggest subtle vort maxima riding atop the
dryline and over a warm, unstable airmass over the discussion
area. These trends suggest continued expansion of convective
coverage across the discussion area over the next few hours
(especially as the low-level jet ramps up), with areas of training
and mergers expected to foster spots of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates
especially near the Red River.

Antecedent conditions are a somewhat moist across the region from
prior heavy-rain events over the past week. Sensitive terrain and
urbanized areas (near Lawton in particular) could also experience
a higher runoff risk. The overall focus for flash flooding should
revolve around sensitive spots and locations of cell mergers -
with background/mean flow fields (around 35-45 knots) suggestive
that prolonged heavier rainfall (and >1.5 inch/hr rates/local FFG)
may not occur on a widespread basis.

Flash flooding is possible with this regime initially over
southwestern OK and western north Texas, with the risk spreading
northeastward toward I-35 in Oklahoma later tonight.

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6VoGB_M1a_9ytYeE6UWe8iLQ051eCBJO1BKLKOA725_8XkZLNT0flAJJgr3NBTOQttOi= 3Q_C8zlaihqgqTHhLhv-AsE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35969737 35969640 34589601 33539662 33169844=20
32870002 32960060 33570089 34530062 35180008=20
35599891=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 142357
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-150556-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0105
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
756 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of Wisconsin and Michigan

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 142356Z - 150556Z

Summary...Deep convection will continue to produce heavy rainfall
while migrating eastward through Wisconsin, across Lake Michigan,
and eventually into Lower Michigan. Flash flooding is likely
given ongoing impacts and local sensitivities in the region.

Discussion...Deep convection has evolved as expected from the
Mississippi River eastward across much of Wisconsin and
northeastern Iowa. Favorable interactions with a warm frontal
zone and steep lapse rates aloft have enabled intense updrafts and
embedded mesocyclones to occasionally merge and produce spots of 2
inches/hr of rainfall at times. Areas of flash flooding are
possible in the short term.

Of particular concern is the potential for storms to expand
northeastward and eastward in coverage. The position of warm
frontal zone over central Wisconsin and cooler Lake Michigan
waters may weaken convection as storms move atop slightly
cooler/stable low-level air, although very steep lapse rates aloft
downstream should maintain convection as it migrates toward areas
that have experienced 3-5 inches of rainfall over the past 3 days,
with ongoing impacts to local watersheds in the area. FFGs fall
to below 1 inch/hr in a few downstream areas, highlighting the
sensitivity of the ground conditions there. Approaching heavy
rainfall may worsen ongoing recovery efforts and perhaps cause new
instances of flash flooding to occur.

Peak flash flood potential will spread into northeastern Wisconsin
in the 00-04Z timeframe and eventually spread into Lower Michigan
generally from 02Z onward.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7kgjJfhxvhUeO4YT74P3s8DQ6l_xpQ24IGlUfxoboD8Y2QG0QSY5486_Dp46h_RYXL9-= Huhx9HqLAuI5qFzRolT1pZE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...ARX...DTX...DVN...GRB...GRR...IWX...LOT...
MKX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45408569 45298379 44028325 42218366 41788510=20
41898733 42518836 42508976 43319091 44929033=20
45348892=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 150024
FFGMPD
INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-150623-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0106
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
824 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Areas affected...eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, southern
Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 150023Z - 150623Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are expected to not only persist, but
train and repeat over areas very near the WI/IL border vicinity
over the next several hours. Flash flooding is likely, and
significant impacts cannot be ruled out.

Discussion...Radar mosaic imagery depicts a mature convective
complex with embedded linear structures and mesocyclones extending
from south-central WI (near Madison) southwestward to near Dubuque
and Cedar Rapids. Other convection was anchored/backbuilding near
a warm front close to and just north of Milwaukee. Each of these
convective clusters were producing expanding cold pools that were
progressively orienting perpendicular to increasing southwesterly
low-level flow, with 45kts now noted on mesoanalyses at 850mb
across much of IA/IL. Latest indications are that these
convective clusters will continue to backbuild and train owing to
convergence along strengthening outflows and strong upstream
buoyancy (~3000 J/kg MLCAPE).=20

The scenario is beginning to favor multiple hours of repeating
convection (1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates) very close to where ongoing
convection exists currently. Localized 3-5 inch rainfall totals
are possible over the next 6 hours. This could result in
significant flash flood potential as FFG thresholds across the
area are only at around 1 inch/hr and will be readily exceeded.=20
This potential will likely exist through 06Z/1a central, with
populated areas near Madison, Milwaukee, Rockford, and perhaps
Chicago potentially experiencing impacts.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_RimPN4452Lz3CSs_IelT7ml5jPYxQHeJmRoaCJABg12dpxpwKNOMVjDMdImE2PL8K-g= NjzLo2BW4jUzEE5JhCUattE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43498958 43368824 42998765 41958741 41538758=20
41248859 41319028 41369158 41559227 41839253=20
42249259 43009239 43179125=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 150528
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-151020-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0107
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
127 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...northeastern IL/southeastern WI to southern
MI/northern IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150526Z - 151020Z

SUMMARY...Scattered flash flooding will be possible in the
vicinity of the eastern IL/WI border, eastward to southern Lower
MI, northern IN and northwestern OH. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr
(locally higher) are expected along with peak additional rainfall
totals of 2-3 inches through 10Z

DISCUSSION...05Z radar imagery depicted a trailing stratiform MCS
moving across Lower MI with the leading edge pressing
southeastward across southern MI into northern IN. An outflow
boundary was analyzed ahead of the convective line from
southeastern MI into northern IN/IL with upstream thunderstorm
development occurring north of the western portion of the boundary
along the WI/IL border. 925-850 mb winds were from the SW at 45-55
kt to the south of the boundary over north-central IL and
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE extended from the MI/IN border back west to
the MS River, per SPC mesoanalysis data.

The leading edge of the MCS is expected to continue tracking
toward the ESE across southeastern MI into northern IN and
northwestern OH over the next 1 to 2 hours, but back to the west,
continued convective development is likely as moist, low level
flow overruns the slow moving western portion of the rain-cooled
outflow. Mean cell motions are generally from the west which will
setup a favorable pattern for training from west to east given
alignment with the low level boundary. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2
in/hr are likely (locally higher possible), and an additional 2 to
3 inches of rain is expected through 10Z where cell training is
maximized. Flash flood guidance is less than 2 inches in 3 hours
for some locations, especially across northern IL/southern WI
where heavy rain over the past 12-24 hours has contributed to
reduced soil infiltration.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4gUZnv0Qxp7R8HWlZNMdEUOjnXzvwcsKhaQiAxAI-iAuF1r4A3I0uJ-ZiXaLC7iOJvba= 8vQFf0NVtX6daqnhMsw5PxE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...GRR...IWX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43668276 43568226 43138209 42448225 41578312=20
41298455 41268640 41468819 41788922 42428939=20
42908878 42848652 42988484 43578350=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 152148
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-160246-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0108
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
547 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 152146Z - 160246Z

Summary...Thunderstorms will migrate eastward across wet/sensitive
areas from yesterday's rainfall especially across Wisconsin.=20
Flash flooding is likely.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms have organized along a
frontal boundary from just north of Dubuque to Des Moines. The
storms are exhibiting linear organization so far in their
evolution, with forward propagation and 40-50 kt speeds generally
limiting their rainfall potential to around 1 inch/hr or less.=20
Flash flooding is possible on an isolated basis in the short term.

Over the next 1-4 hours, however, storms will migrate eastward
along a remnant outflow/frontal boundary extending east-west
across southern Wisconsin (generally from Sheboygan to Wisconsin
Dells). As low-level flow increases over Illinois, convergence
along this boundary could result in additional convection
developing in southern/southeastern Wisconsin out ahead of the
ongoing quasi-linear complex. This will increase potential for training/mergers and prolonged rainfall rates in areas that have
already experienced 1-4 inches of rainfall yesterday near/north
and west of Milwaukee and across far northern Illinois. FFGs are
less than 1 inch/hr in some spots and could readily be exceeded
where mergers take place. Flash flooding is likely - especially
in sensitive areas that received rainfall/runoff issues late
yesterday and early today.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5opxEbcOifoi00puOb7C5zg01c-pm_jWC9NSJEfq1mEfdNRUZ1jcte1ysb-WmCRTq14u= t29w5aSU3WiQJFXPtvtydIo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...GRB...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44558947 44408783 43208786 42008773 41548866=20
41449051 42319153 43979095=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 152301
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-160459-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0109
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
700 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...much of Missouri, a small part of southeastern
Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152259Z - 160459Z

Summary...Deep convection is organizing into clusters/segments
with localized training. Localized flash flooding is possible
especially in low-spots and sensitive areas.

Discussion...Convection continues to mature along and east of a
dryline extending from near Kansas City south-southwestward to
near Bartlesville and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. The storms are in
a very moist, unstable airmass (with 2000 J/kg SBCAPE and 1.5 inch
PW values) supporting locally heavy rainfall at times despite
appreciable storm motions of around 30-40 knots.

The storms are in an environment with modest forcing for ascent
due to the slow movement of the dryline, with an approaching
vort-max over Nebraska and confluence ahead of the dryline helping
to deepen and expand convective coverage. Because storms aren't
strictly confined to the dryline, a few areas of training have
been noted (especially across far southwestern Missouri near
Joplin). These trends should continue for several more hours as
evidence of any distinct upscale growth into forward-propagating
linear segments (that would effectively reduce rain rates) is
currently unclear.

Localized training/repeating is likely to result in spots of 1-2
inch/hr rain rates at times on a localized basis. These rain
rates will threaten local FFG thresholds, with local sensitivities
also contributing to a potential flash flood risk. This risk will
persist for several hours this evening - perhaps through 03-04Z
tonight.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4QBPUYiOvvcrSPYpuhtkEviwBvLAooHGfmdwrtbeqZBMskhBe_do-t8cvF3LxHUIUCMe= m9tMCSe9Cl1O5RzzcsdF2es$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...ICT...LSX...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40509182 39399086 37999060 37039114 36699282=20
36749448 37119532 38149503 39479452 40199364=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160012
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-160609-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0110
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
810 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...southern/southeastern Oklahoma, far north Texas,
far western Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160009Z - 160609Z

Summary...An axis of training convection has materialized from
near Wichita Falls through Ardmore to near McAlister. This heavy
rain axis should translate east-northeastward over the next few
hours, with flash flooding possible especially across southern
Oklahoma.

Discussion...Initial scattered convection has recently aligned
into a focused, training axis of cells along the Red River Valley
this evening. The storms are in a weakly forced environment, with
forcing for ascent resulting from the glancing influence of a
mid-level wave over Nebraska and weakly confluent low-level flow
across the region. The orientation of cells parallel to mean flow
aloft - combined with their gradual maturity and establishment of
cold pools - suggests that training convection will continue to be
an issue for at least a few hours. This training band of
convection will gradually translate east-northeastward into more
of eastern Oklahoma and perhaps far western Arkansas through the
overnight hours. A secondary training band of convection
near/north of the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex may also materialize
over the next couple hours.

Ground conditions are relatively dry in many areas, with hourly
FFG thresholds exceeding 2-2.5 inches in spots. This suggests
isolated flash flood potential across the region - mainly tied to
low spots and/or urban areas. Persistence of training, however
(as evidenced by 2-2.5 inch/hr rain rates near Ardmore) suggests
that appreciable impacts may occur where rainfall is heaviest and
most persistent. This isolated flash flood threat should persist
for several hours - perhaps through 06Z/1a central.

Cook=20

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!94K4h8YfYfUxaStsHe_mwQL2Cg4STxUAwOgtVe0vJgX8kBrY3h64uUeSF04aU6SgfTz9= sW5g0eOrXgiqZql0yM0HAKo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35899509 35869426 34929421 33509505 33079635=20
32859832 34239831 35069740=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160234
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-160800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0111
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1033 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...Northern IL...Far Southeast WI...Southern L.P. of
MI...Far Northwest IND...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 160235Z - 160800Z

SUMMARY...Potential for localized flash flooding continues through
the early overnight period; though coverage should become more
scattered with loss of heating/rainfall intensity. Rates of
1.5-1.75"/hr and spots of 2-3" remain possible.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR depicts a mature MCV across central
Lake Michigan just east of Milwaukee progressing toward
Holland/Muskegon, MI with a trailing QLCS convective line
extending across SE WI into the NW Exurbs of Chicago along W I-88
in N IL toward the Quad Cities. The cold pool appears to be
maturing as well, increasing forward propagation of the line
particularly through the middle, toward the WI/IL line, this is
reducing overall residency time for extreme rainfall totals, but
the short-term heavy bursts may still result in 1-1.5" in 30 to 60
minutes. Given recent heavy rainfall and saturated upper soil
profiles and proximity to hydrophobic urban conditions near
Chicago will result in increased run-off and likely incidents of
localized flash flooding/rapid rise flood, especially in the next
few hours.

GOES-WV shows expanding divergence region along the entrance of a
100 kt 3H speed max across the LP of MI at this time, helping to
maintain the MCV crossing the more stable air of Lake Michigan but
solid southwesterly warm-air advection is allowing for downstream
convergence with limited but sufficient MUCAPE of 500-750 J/kg.=20
VWP shows solid 850-700 40-45kt flow at the western nose of the
deep layer moisture axis where overall PW totals are increasing to
over 1.25". This will likely continue to support 1.5-1.75"/hr
rates and given the record wet spring across the SW LP; FFGs are
compromised in spots and while typically sandy and able to absorb
these rates and totals up to 2-3", saturation over 75% to 85% will
still quickly be overwhelmed with above normal run off and
potential for localized flash flooding conditions. However,
proximity to the unstable air will be increasing (along with
overall diurnal loss) and overall intensity of thunderstorms will
be steadily increasing through the night reducing overall coverage
and magnitude of flooding potential.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4LPc5RRJ7D_EWUR-GQyFYstxacfepZIrau-Gq7EetmrgliaA_S5VAKvEdlNZqw0hlovq= memycrUKXrRQJ4-THjJqulI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...DVN...GRR...IWX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43868583 43758458 43508280 42468379 41648587=20
41268769 41238976 41499024 42108976 42648902=20
42968835 43578710=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160311
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-160800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0112
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1110 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...Central Illinois...East-Central/Southeast
Missouri...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160310Z - 160800Z

SUMMARY...Mature MCV continues to provide solid WAA ascent coupled
with nose of enhanced deep layer moisture likely to support
efficient rainfall production with rates of 1.5-1.75" and streaks
of 2-3" totals resulting in possible incident(s) of localized
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR suite depicts a maturing MCV just
southwest of metro St. Louis lifting northeastward at this time.=20
GOES-E WV and RADAR show a broadening mid-level baroclinic
leaf/shield indicative of continued favorable evacuation aloft to
maintain the MCS for the next few hours. VWP and RAP analysis
denote the broad divergence is supporting strengthening low level
flow with solid confluence at the nose of the deeper layer
moisture axis. CIRA LPW shows corridor of 850-500mb moisture is
aligned ideally with the southwesterly flow but sfc to 850mb
moisture is very broad and increasing to support TPW value in
excess of 1.5". The 30-35kts of 850-700mb confluent flow in this
moisture regime will support 1.5-1.75" rainfall production even
with reducing/narrowing unstable axis (generally 500-750 J/kg of
MUCAPEs). The MCV is also providing a corralling of downstream
flow into a well defined deformation axis that is generally
parallel to the deeper layer steering. This orientation will be
the supportive requirement for increased duration to support
localized steaks of 2-3" totals.

Unlike further north, the ground conditions are much drier due to
the prolonged drought. Yet, FFG values of 1.5-2"/hr and 2-3"/3hr
are in the realm of exceedance and while not all locations will be
exceeded there should be a few areas that may lead to localized
flash flooding conditions through the early overnight period. As
such, flash flooding is considered possible across central IL back
through east-central MO; with slightly higher potential in the
urban areas near Metro St. Louis, due to hydrophobic grounds and
drainage.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_WoxM95G8ExX39lGSpA8s-H7qn-FUCdGbkYh4vn_8BhypuFWDWSIc__7RJp008JX_uhC= d3_AwawJzGwp-3qEB59Qe3Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40338843 39928763 39148773 38638840 37699014=20
37499135 37969181 38549157 38819130 39579024=20
40138941=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160444
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-160845-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0113
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1243 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...Southwest Missouri...Adj.
Northwest Arkansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160445Z - 160845Z

SUMMARY...A few more hours of potential localized flash flooding
due to slow moving/training thunderstorms across the Ozark Plateau.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um IR and regional RADAR mosaic shows a
solid warming/weakening trend to the convective line across much
of the Ozark Plateau. RAP analysis shows warming low levels and
increasing CINH trends across the remaining well of 1000-2000 J/kg
of MLCAPE, the exception remaining along the upwind edge across NE
OK; and this is where the healthiest updrafts remain. Still,
KINX/KSGF show most are starting to have dominating outflow
patterns. However, as the dry-line retreated and the mean
upper-level shortwave trough across IA is kicking east; a weakness
in the overall mid-level flow/steering is lying perpendicular to
weakening but sufficient southerly surface to boundary layer/925mb
flow providing solid moisture flux convergence in proximity to the
remaining MLCAPE axis. Tds in the upper 60s to low 70s. With this
convergence and steering flow parallel to the boundary (and
slacking), training or increased downdraft residency may allow for
a narrow axis of enhanced rainfall rates up to 1.75"/hr for a
potential of localized 2-3" total. Beside naturally lower FFG
due to complex terrain across the Ozark Plateau, even further west
into NE OK, FFG values are locally lower with hourly values less
than 1.5-2" and 3" values less than 3". So an isolated incident
or two of flash flooding remains possible more likely over the
next few hours (through 06z) than into late overnight hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-TvB5wH1yA2rEBw5_ycJhpkLeoKNTS-Ovu9k5jlIx-qJ2pkeb0t11tRXvyqCe5r2sRyr= ukq0ka5--mZ0V5dP_wCKRGU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37839174 37359132 36779169 36529332 36329416=20
36139587 36179651 36579663 36769627 36979505=20
37359379 37769264=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 162003
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-170001-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0114
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Areas affected...a small part of Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162001Z - 170001Z

Summary...Isolated, slow-moving thunderstorms could cause
localized flash flooding for the next few hours (through 00Z/7p
central).

Discussion...A localized cluster of thunderstorms has become
established across central Missouri. The storms have developed in
response to strong insolation/surface destabilization beneath a
very cold mid/upper wave (-18C at 500 hPa). The storms are also
in a very localized area where mid-level flow drops off
substantially, with right-moving storm motions falling to around
5-10 knots per point forecast soundings. This explains recent
behavior of the storm cluster very near Osage Beach, MO, where
MRMS estimates of 1+ inch/hr in that area were already exceeding
local FFG.

Given the weak forcing for ascent, convective coverage is in
question. Persistence of ongoing activity - or perhaps additional
slow-moving cluster(s) of convection could produce 1 inch/hr rain
rates at times. Again, these rates could exceed FFG, and given
sensitive local terrain in the region, another instance or two of
flash flooding cannot be completely ruled out. This risk will
likely be diurnally driven and lessen some after sunset.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-ObucWhVuhSJtJ-DCrbSpVcGeYPrECRaPTiEJb1XmBzxTkejYnTMq5FUaz6gFsNiaqkA= M_oO_IyUC9okdjLdiTlDbSA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 38919228 38839074 38279022 37459022 37119109=20
37199248 37689329 38099339 38809317=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 171811
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-180010-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0115
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
210 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Areas affected...Northeast MO...Western and Northern IL..Eastern
IA...Far Southeast MN...Central and Southern WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 171810Z - 180010Z

SUMMARY...Rapid convective development is expected over highly
saturated soils this afternoon. Anomalous moisture and instability
will support rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour. While
individual cell motions will be fast, cell-training will lead to
localized totals of 2 to 4 inches, making flash flooding likely
given the sensitive antecedent conditions.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Day Cloud Phase RGB satellite imagery and
surface observations indicate rapid destabilization across the
Upper Midwest ahead of an ejecting upper-level trough and
approaching strong cold front. A 40 to 50+ kt southwesterly
low-level jet is fostering intense warm air advection and moisture
transport into the region, resulting in an anomalously moist and
unstable airmass for mid-April (PWATs climbing to ~1.25 inches and
MLCAPE of 1500 to 3000 J/kg).

Convective initiation is expected imminently as the cap erodes,
particularly near surface waves analyzed over north-central IA and
southeast MN which are locally enhancing convergence. Deep-layer
ascent will continue to increase this afternoon and evening as a
strong shortwave/jet streak rounds the base of the trough and
approaches from the west. Convective mode is expected to feature a
mix of supercells and organized multicell clusters.

While strong deep-layer shear (40 to 50+ kts) will promote fast
individual cell motions to the northeast, the southwesterly
steering flow is largely parallel to the low-level jet axis and
lifting warm front. This alignment will strongly favor corridors
of cell-training and repeating rounds of heavy rainfall over the
same areas. High-efficiency updrafts will be capable of producing
1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall rates, with the 12Z HREF signaling
localized swaths of 2 to 4 inches through 00Z.

The primary driver for the flash flood threat is the highly
sensitive antecedent conditions. Recent NASA SPoRT 0 to 10 cm soil
moisture data indicates very moist if not saturated soils (80 to
100%) across much of the region, and USGS streamflow networks show
running waterways are already elevated. With minimal infiltration
capacity, the intense 1 to 2 inch/hour rates will to convert to
enhanced runoff concerns, and likely promoting scattered areas of
flash flooding which will include some localized urban impacts as
well.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9hjs2Z_oHmyo18eoaSQu7i3KoZD9Delq5_o_Aeyu83kiVMQIawM1h87TuD-4LEItpLhN= MhaDX-LNgGe5ulc54SN8dxk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...DMX...DVN...EAX...GRB...ILX...LOT... LSX...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45659058 45318891 44168851 42578857 41148902=20
40108946 39429028 39319154 39769277 40559338=20
41339334 43079263 44399214 45129163=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 171904
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-180102-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0116
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern and eastern Kansas into
northwestern Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171902Z - 180102Z

Summary...Flash flooding is possible as storms expand in coverage
and intensity across the discussion area through 00Z/7p central.

Discussion...Convective initiation has occurred in earnest along a
synoptic front extending from near St. Joseph, MO to near Wichita,
KS over the past half hour. The storms are in an extremely
unstable environment, with 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.2-1.5 inch
PW values supporting heavy rainfall. The front and initial
convection was also oriented parallel to deep southwesterly
steering flow aloft, suggestive of areas of training as storms
mature over the next 1-2 hours. The localized training (and
perhaps cell mergers where individual cells can move right of mean
flow) should result in a few spots of 1.5 inch/hr rain rates that
could result FFG exceedance and flash flooding with time.

Trends through the night will ultimately depend on the degree of
convective coverage and any upscale growth into linear segments
that could materialize. Even if the dominant storm mode becomes
linear, local training axes are likely to materialize and enhance
flash flood risk. These trends, along with any potential
development out ahead of the main frontal band, will be monitored
for any corridors of significant flash flood potential through the
evening hours.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_6urUHJHWAXBLoWXgUTS01fJG-k_8qnlfcUOHJLu-Nf-cVPdz3_l-tPy6jQQo3CpjNI9= 066vCnaiDF9ytCYfuFMT224$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...OAX...OUN...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40579404 40529265 39909261 37869402 37089542=20
36999727 37289839 38509719 40219524=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 172337
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-180434-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0117
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
735 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Areas affected...central/northern Illinois, much of Wisconsin,
upper Peninsula of Michigan, western Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 172334Z - 180434Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues especially across
Wisconsin and northern Illinois. This threat will shift eastward
through the evening hours.

Discussion...A mix of linear and clustered convection continues to
migrate east/northeastward across the discussion area. Areas of repeating/training were noted across far southern Wisconsin - and
that area remains sensitive from prior heavy rainfall over the
past several days. FFGs near/downstream of ongoing convection in
southern Wisconsin are in the 1 inch/hr range (locally lower),
with urban impacts from heavy rain expected in the Milwaukee area
over the next 1-2 hours or so. Flash flooding remains likely
there.

Farther north, scattered convection has matured over central
Wisconsin just ahead of a synoptic cold front despite widespread
convective overturning. Instability profiles remain supportive of
strong/deep convection in the short term (next couple hours),
though the longevity of this convection is in question with
eastward extent. Nevertheless, widespread impacts from recent
heavy rain, swollen watersheds, and snow melt have left the region
very sensitive (FFGs near 0 in the UP of Michigan, also <1 inch/hr
elsewhere in parts of northeastern Wisconsin), and localized flash
flooding remains possible.

Cells in the southern part of this elongated conpmex (exiting
southeastern Iowa) are more linear in nature, though a few cells
have developed over west-central Illinois that should merge with
this line over the next few hours. Ground conditions aren't as
sensitive in central Illinois compared to farther north. Flash
flooding may be more isolated/dependent on local rain rate
enhancement from these mergers.

Eventually, this elongated complex will shift eastward through
northeastern Illinois and into western Indiana, with at least
isolated flash flood potential continuing through 05Z/midnight
central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!75sQHgPWBmHMjZ1Iw9XEB_ZKL_6aH3-pygDpV2_kNNOuyft9zc_2YNqGB8JtW2UbmLfK= YzgLHaEoDJkopQwKKRSvHJA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...DVN...GRB...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT... LSX...MKX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46768913 46698706 46338613 44718704 42648721=20
41438661 40218642 39408761 39449008 40039107=20
40969098 42259046 43959061 45999024=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 172339
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-180434-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0117
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
738 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Areas affected...central/northern Illinois, much of Wisconsin,
upper Peninsula of Michigan, western Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 172334Z - 180434Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues especially across
Wisconsin and northern Illinois. This threat will shift eastward
through the evening hours.

Discussion...A mix of linear and clustered convection continues to
migrate east/northeastward across the discussion area. Areas of repeating/training were noted across far southern Wisconsin - and
that area remains sensitive from prior heavy rainfall over the
past several days. FFGs near/downstream of ongoing convection in
southern Wisconsin are in the 1 inch/hr range (locally lower),
with urban impacts from heavy rain expected in the Milwaukee area
over the next 1-2 hours or so. Flash flooding remains likely
there.

Farther north, scattered convection has matured over central
Wisconsin just ahead of a synoptic cold front despite widespread
convective overturning. Instability profiles remain supportive of
strong/deep convection in the short term (next couple hours),
though the longevity of this convection is in question with
eastward extent. Nevertheless, widespread impacts from recent
heavy rain, swollen watersheds, and snow melt have left the region
very sensitive (FFGs near 0 in the UP of Michigan, also <1 inch/hr
elsewhere in parts of northeastern Wisconsin), and localized flash
flooding remains possible.

Cells in the southern part of this elongate complex (exiting
southeastern Iowa) are more linear in nature, though a few cells
have developed over west-central Illinois that should merge with
this line over the next few hours. Ground conditions aren't as
sensitive in central Illinois compared to farther north. Flash
flooding may be more isolated/dependent on local rain rate
enhancement from these mergers.

Eventually, this elongated complex will shift eastward through
northeastern Illinois and into western Indiana, with at least
isolated flash flood potential continuing through 05Z/midnight
central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9U-h3PbHAPaEvnkDE8b8ojujiT2ikJcvFmDdocidQB9F7rW9CG0HfjZD7aSshrypXflm= 0uVx1ZhowZi6PlF2XOrL6hQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...DVN...GRB...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT... LSX...MKX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46768913 46698706 46338613 44718704 42648721=20
41438661 40218642 39408761 39449008 40039107=20
40969098 42259046 43959061 45999024=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 181945
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-190145-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0119
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Areas affected...Southeast TX...Southwest LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181945Z - 190145Z

SUMMARY...Potent thunderstorms capable of producing >2"/hr
rainfall rates over the urbanized communities of southeast TX and
southwest LA could cause localized urban flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and Doppler Radar show a bubbling
field of convection over southeast TX and southwest LA in advance
of an approaching strong cold front. Additional surface based
heating this afternoon will yield over 1,500 J/kg of MLCAPE along
the I-10 corridor. Winds in advance, and in wake, of the cold
front are NErly while winds within the 700-200mb layer are firmly
out of the WSW. This is supporting effective bulk vertical wind
shear levels that the RAP suggests could surpass 40 kts. This
would allow for thunderstorms to have more longevity than typical
"pop-up" or "garden variety" storms. HRRR and RAP area averaged
soundings show warm cloud layers up to 12,000ft deep and skinny
CAPE profiles that found in typical warm rain processes. As 850mb
and 700mb weaken over the region this evening, the concern is for
additional thunderstorm development either along the cold front or
induced by the growing cold pool.

Given the favorable thermodynamic environment and increasing PWs
that reach 2.0" east of Houston this evening, the concern is for

2"/hr rainfall rates that manifest over urbanized environments.

The 12Z HREF does show low-chance probabilities (10-30%) from the
Houston suburbs on east into southwest LA this afternoon and
evening. The vast majority of the expected rainfall over southeast
TX and southwest LA this afternoon is welcomed (severe and extreme
drought for many), which is also evident in the 1-hr FFGs that are
no lower than 2" area wide. That said, the potential for
slow-moving and repeating rounds of storms, combined with
anomalous PWs and ample instability aloft, could cause localized
flash flooding in urbanized settings that contain a greater
concentration of hydrophobic surfaces. Low-lying areas with poor
drainage are also susceptible to flash flooding this afternoon.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9x_hjSr_ftys34SFugzCvxjT-H0aqr-0ltdAUpbxeqrkiGilLjiBwS_-XpRE3GUtr1g_= A55YawAS8oeq-cWzDYFgzAg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30589389 30569330 30069327 29629387 29209491=20
28939574 28839638 28939668 29259658 29709602=20
30369451=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 201828
FFGMPD
FLZ000-210015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0120
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
227 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Areas affected...southern FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201825Z - 210015Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms capable of producing 2 to 3+
in/hr are expected to impact southern FL over the next 4-6 hours.
While a large portion of the area affected is covered by swamp,
there could be impacts to urban areas along the southwest and
southeastern coast.

DISCUSSION...18Z surface observations and satellite imagery showed
a cold front dropping south across Monroe and Miami-Dade counties
along with sea breeze boundaries along the southwestern and
southeastern FL coastlines. Visible satellite and radar imagery
showed the early stages of thunderstorm development with at least
one developed cell 10-15 miles southwest of Miami. SPC
mesoanalysis data showed MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and PWs of 1.5
to 1.7 inches. Low level flow was from the east to northeast and
deeper layer mean winds were relatively weak from the WNW.

Daytime heating and an apparent lack of CIN across southern FL
will lead to additional rapid thunderstorm development within the
next 1-2 hours along low level convergence boundaries forced by
the cold and sea breeze fronts, and later, subsequent convectively
driven outflow boundaries. Slow movement and brief training of
these cores are likely to produce heavy rainfall rates of 2 to 3+
in/hr with the possibility of storm total rainfall in excess of 5
inches. While the 12Z HREF showed 40 km neighborhood probabilities
of exceeding 3 to 5 inches of 20-40 percent, the likelihood of
these higher rates falling over water or swampland is greater than
that of impacting population centers along the coast. However,
should these higher rates overlap with the Naples/Macro Island
region or east-central Miami-Dade County to the upper Keys, urban
flash flooding will be possible. The flash flood threat is
expected to end from north to south and likely be over with after
00Z as the front moves south of the Peninsula.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8AbXtSs2fP1pYZm6Urke5r5CjAgMjCRLCRbGztQ_qt2Cj4zKjJ7W_3kPEsfLCJ4xBv1L= QWbWIlP__ZXdYNaPHGCKEFU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 26368187 26078093 25858011 25258007 24988041=20
25138135 25888205=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 201932
FFGMPD
TXZ000-210009-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0121
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Areas affected...Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201929Z - 210009Z

Summary...Additional development of efficient, shallow convection
containing periodic 1.5-2"/hr rainfall rates will maintain the
threat of scattered flash flooding this afternoon over portions of
Central TX.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic over Central TX depicts an area
of slow moving and efficient showers and thunderstorms which has
persisted through the morning and afternoon hours. Over the last
hour or so, a cell within the broader precipitation shield between
San Antonio and San Marcos has exhibited an uptick in hourly
precipitation rates to 1.5-2"/hr, or 0.50-0.63"/15 minutes per
recent observations, MRMS, and KEWX data. When combined with slow
cell storm motions estimated at 10 kts, this storm led to a quick
uptick in CREST Unit Streamflows to 200-600 cfs/smi where a Flash
Flood Warning was recently issued.

This activity is occurring downstream of an approaching
upper-trough and left exit region jet streak in Northern Mexico to
support broad ascent across the region. At the low levels, an axis
of modest 850-700 mb layer convergence and WAA is also noted just
upwind of this activity. ACARS soundings near the heaviest showers
and thunderstorms suggest a very moist and saturated column from
the surface to 600 mb and 400-500 J/kg of MUCAPE to support
efficient collision-coalescence processes in this activity. While
the instability profile is very shallow, it is somewhat higher
than what CAMS are initializing with (100-250 J/kg) in this area,
which could partially explain why the observed rainfall is more
robust than what is modeled. That said, the RAP does suggest the
aforementioned low-level forcing will persist through the
afternoon hours while the upper-trough approaches for the west.
Thus, the threat of scattered flash flooding will continue through
the afternoon as new cells with periodic 1.5-2"/hr rates could
develop and overlap with the area of current heavy rainfall,
leading to additional totals of 2-3".

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6P27gS0htMUt6ruBzVjQGTOBciYb1I84fU-8LYNmHZqsrW2YvQ28M3ERE9FmwAUoPBGt= AyRfqbg7HBFjdj823bTghhI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30409962 30379879 30309766 30009691 29409657=20
28979693 28989818 29339916 29929974=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 210026
FFGMPD
TXZ000-210504-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0122
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
825 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Areas affected...Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210024Z - 210504Z

Summary...Additional thunderstorms are developing over portions of South-Central TX this evening. These cells will maintain the
threat of flash flooding as they could train and overlap with
areas of heavy rainfall earlier today.

Discussion...Radar across South-Central TX depicts a rapid
expansion in thunderstorm coverage and intensity along the leading
edge of a shortwave near the Big-Bend of TX. At the same time, an
axis of persistent shallow convection northeast of San Antonio was
finally showing signs of weakening after producing 2-4" of
rainfall this afternoon. This activity was quite impactful earlier
today, and 1-2"/hr rainfall rates led to at least one report of a
swift water rescue near Live Oak TX where CREST Unit Streamflows
eclipsed 900 cfs/smi at times.

With that in mind, the concern is for additional thunderstorms
containing 1-1.5"/hr rainfall rates to expand southwest of San
Antonio, in turn leading to periods of training/repeating near
areas impacted earlier today. This scenario is supported by recent
runs of the HRRR (which is an slow but overall has the best handle
on the situation). Taking into account the timing of the HRRR,
this suggests the threat of scattered flash flooding should
persist through 4-5Z tonight. Localized rainfall amounts of 1-2"
could support additional considerable flash flooding impacts,
especially if they fall atop the areas of heaviest rainfall today
(highlighted in red).

Asherman=20

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-pgGySLa8E2fX8z1a-v1EJ-5dByc4dC3VwIx7_d_Lp_Oyn3qKBs_LqqdACbFnEkn5076= LY9CTpEWQN9KPvCUyWfLKis$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30109900 30009752 29279747 28959854 29129944=20
29649956=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 211000
FFGMPD
TXZ000-211530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0123
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
559 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Areas affected...Triangle of Central Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211000Z - 211530Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding risk possible given slow
moving/back-building warm-advective shallow but efficient showers/thunderstorms. Rates of 1-1.25"/hr are possible with
localized 2-3" totals.

DISCUSSION...A very effective dynamic environment is helping to
draw above normal moisture into a favorable ascent pattern over
the next few hours across the Triangle of central Texas. GOES-E
WV suite depicts a decaying MCV across southeast TX along the
southeast periphery of favorable mid to upper-level divergent
pattern along the northeast quadrant of a 70kt 3H west to east jet
along/north of 30N. Combined with NW to SE diffluent pattern from
500-250mb providing strong divergence for effective convective
outflow. However, it is also directing strong ageostrophic
forcing by helping to accelerate the early morning western Gulf
jet streak fluxing enhanced low level moisture northward into the
isentropic ascent plane. CIRA LPW along with VWP vectors denote
core of west Gulf jet is propagating 20-25kts in the core of .8 to
1" moisture in the surface to 850mb layer. Combine this with the
axis of 700-500 mid-level moist flow from the subtropical eastern
Pacific results in combined PW values nearing 1.5" near the best
isentropic ascent currently through the San Saba River Valley.

As such, recent 10.3um EIR and RADAR show increasing shallow
convective activity along the NW to SE oriented DPVA into the best diffluence/divergence region downstream. The only limiting factor
is the lack of higher theta-E air resulting in a broader unstable
layer. Currently, it is limited to 100-250 J/kg of MUCAPE but
only expected to increase toward 500 J/kg toward mid-morning as
the core of the western Gulf air reaches the area of concern.=20
Deep layer flux and ascent should allow for solid convergence and
low level precipitation development likely with smaller droplets
in warm-cloud process generation. This should allow for increased
rainfall rates, but without the greater vertical depth, is likely
to be limited to the 1.25" range at max. Convective cells are
likely to move toward the northeast, but with continued south to
southwest low level inflow, propagation vectors should be
supportive of upstream redevelopment/back-building of the shallow
cores. This should allow for increased overall duration to
potentially support highly focused/localized maximum totals of
2-3" through to afternoon.=20

Hydrologically, these maximum totals are at the minimum thresholds
of 1 but more likely 3 hour FFG values in the area, particularly
along the southwest edge of the area of concern. NASA SPoRT LIS
0-40cm soil conditions suggest average saturation around 45-55%
and as such, most rainfall will be beneficial, but an isolated
incident or two of flash flooding is considered possible given the
strong dynamics and setup's history.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_I219mon2hUaIT9iZgkore_06USnlzSqH8nUYqkck59CIiG6-YfaYH-y3ycu4YEpwlLD= 4FbM0lDcXhAwB3fCiFCScWs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32539720 32209657 31769628 31419629 31169645=20
30919666 30589712 30449755 30679836 31159887=20
31779894 32509834=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 211535
FFGMPD
TXZ000-212100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0124
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1133 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Areas affected...East central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211533Z - 212100Z

Summary...Slow moving heavy showers and thunderstorms continue to
develop across eastern portions of central Texas late this
morning, and are expected to persist going into the early to
middle afternoon hours. Rainfall rates in excess of an inch per
hour may lead to additional instances of flooding through 4 pm
local time.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars and GOES-E satellite imagery
continue to indicate a swath of heavy rainfall with embedded
convection, centered mainly between San Saba and Columbus, Texas
late this morning. This is primarily developing as a result of
enhanced ascent from a 700 mb trough axis and mid-level shortwave
intersecting moist 20-30 knot 850 mb southerly flow, and this band
has been maintaining itself over the past few hours with only
limited latitudinal displacement over the morning hours.

The latest CAM guidance suggests the potential for scattered QPF
maxima on the order of 1-3 inches through 21Z, with recent ARW
runs most impressive with up to 4 inches possible during that
time. The soils are becoming increasingly saturated and prone to
additional flooding, with some regions getting 2 to 4 inches in
just the past 12 hours as depicted in the graphic, and flash flood
guidance is dropping in response to this. Even though the
instability parameters are modest and most rainfall rates should
be 1.5 inches per hour or less, some instances of flash flooding
will be possible given the duration of the event.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6rZMdZryMnN1h6U47HcOTCMKMYBmebTgM_8KHuzizEgtqpQj8aSaafmjYcXXKRj4CWEH= y070S3biTHnSDXrWh992LpM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31399745 31079654 30659580 30219534 29699511=20
29059518 28879550 28899585 28989632 29229708=20
29909767 30189812 30509848 30959864 31259830=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 222045
FFGMPD
TXZ000-230130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0125
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
444 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Areas affected...central TX to middle/upper TX Coastal Plain

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222042Z - 230130Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding will be possible across portions
of central TX into the middle and upper TX Coastal Plain through
the early evening. Localized rainfall rates of 2-3 in/hr (locally
higher) will be possible which could lead to runoff problems where
overlap occurs with urban areas or other locations with poor
drainage, especially given above average rainfall over the past
few days.

Discussion...Area radar imagery across southeastern TX at 2015Z
showed scattered thunderstorms across the middle and upper TX
Coastal Plain, mainly east of U.S. Hwy 77. SPC mesoanalysis data
from 20Z showed uninhibited MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and PWs of
1.3 to 1.6 inches across the region. The storms were located
within northwest flow aloft between two vorticity maxima, one over
the Gulf, south of western LA within a region of effective bulk
shear between 30-35 kt, and a second vort max over northeastern
TX. Bulk shear values dropped off significantly to the north and
low level onshore flow between 925-850 mb of less than 15 kt
appeared to be limiting organization over land. However, cell
motions were fairly slow at 5-15 kt and portions of the region
have picked up 2-4 inches of rain over the past 4 days, higher to
the west near I-35.

Therefore, while cells were not very organized, slow movement and
outflow interactions/mergers could result in hourly rainfall of
2-3 inches (perhaps locally higher) and localized totals of 2-4
inches through 01Z. While congealing outflows could result in some
westward migration of activity toward 00Z, the overall footprint
of ongoing storms is not expected to change much over the next few
hours. Isolated higher rainfall maxima could result in flash
flooding should they overlap with more sensitive ground
conditions, whether that be an urban location or locally
hydrologically sensitive area due to recent rainfall.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_3LvrLfgRtViQVo-_a9F6P1Xv6F7kfWFSRPquiOqE_-jVWwsbw2FBSSnmKKdI1qasTBI= rsQcycUFdREyrZbFU_yPA64$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30799449 30649406 30429393 29889416 29389487=20
28859565 28849669 29109711 29429747 29689764=20
29999763 30269730 30379683 30509592 30759510=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 232000
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-240100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0126
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Areas affected...northeastern KS, southeastern NE, southwestern
IA, northwestern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231956Z - 240100Z

Summary...Isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible
from northeastern KS into southeastern NE, western IA and
northwestern MO. Training of thunderstorms will produce hourly
rainfall of 1-2 in/hr with peak rainfall totals of 2-4 inches
possible, through 01Z.

Discussion...1945Z radar imagery showed a broken line of
thunderstorms extending from south-central MN down to the NE/KS
border, just ahead of a cold front. A cyclonic swirl was observed
on visible imagery over northern KS, related to a low to mid-level
vorticity max located just north of the surface triple point.
Strong to severe thunderstorms were ongoing in the vicinity of
Omaha, NE with rapid development noted south of Omaha to the NE/KS
border. SPC mesoanalysis data from 19Z showed 2000-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE from western IA into east-central KS ahead of the cold
front with little to no CIN present.

While thunderstorm activity to the north over western IA continues
to grow and expand downstream toward central IA through 00Z, newer
development to the south is also expected to expand within the
unstable environment ahead of the front and favorably
diffluent/divergent jet pattern aloft. A general eastward
advancement of the line is expected but an inflection or two
within the line of storms is anticipated, allowing for the
increased potential for brief training from the NE/IA border down
into northeastern KS as line orientation matches that of the mean
steering from from the southwest. Elements of training will be
capable of 1-2 in/hr rates and there will be isolated potential
for 2-4 inches through 01Z as the line of thunderstorms advances
off toward the east.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!77pisuZzS7nVKIjm86sEMRBSU92gf0hG8Jrg_GINe5iPA9dGpBPfqkUmC-wLry78e5nO= Fsv2NO7BvOXPtH-oP3LAvqs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41949521 41839435 41249367 39789434 37989595=20
38109739 38699787 39899740 41119655=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240029
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-240600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0127
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
828 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Areas affected...Upper MS Valley into MN Arrowhead/western U.P. of
MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240027Z - 240600Z

Summary...Widely scattered instances of flash flooding will be
possible across northeastern IA/southeastern and northeastern MN
into WI and the western U.P. of MI over the next 6 hours. Training
of heavy rain is expected to produce 1-2 in/hr rates with isolated
totals in the 1 to 3 inch range.

Discussion...Area radar imagery at 00Z showed an intense squall
line which extended from north-central IA into northeastern KS,
tracking slowly toward the east-northeast. Meanwhile, less
organized convection was noted to the north near western Lake
Superior into central WI along with additional scattered storms in
eastern IA. Estimated MLCAPE from 00Z SPC mesoanalysis data showed
500 to 1500+ J/kg from northeastern IA into the western half of WI
(highest to the south, ahead of the SQLN). MUCAPE up to 1000 J/kg
was estimated across the eastern MN Arrowhead, north of a surface
warm front. Aloft, a 90-100 kt jet streak was captured via GOES
East DMV over western MN, with diffluent and divergent winds
within its right-entrance region, likely supporting the recent
uptick in convective activity over eastern IA.

Expectations are for the squall line to continue advancing toward
the ENE, while coverage and intensity increases regarding the
activity from eastern IA into WI, owing to strengthening jet
support in the upper levels. However, one limiting factor for
maintaining convective intensity through the first half of the
night is the forecast for weakening instability with time and with
northern extent. On the other hand, portions of the region have
seen over 300 percent of normal rainfall over the past 2 weeks
which will contribute to quicker runoff from heavy rain. Lingering
snow cover in limited northern locations may also contribute to
excess runoff from added heavy rainfall. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2
in/hr within areas of training from northeastern IA into
southeastern MN and portions of western/central WI can be expected
at times, with storm total rainfall of 1 to 3 inches in a couple
of locations. These widely scattered instances of heavier rainfall
could lead to flash flooding within portions of the Upper MS
Valley through ~06Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6kgfqTSwxWwKfzCXp6PG-UAyu1foOIh4ilYhnayi2dXgpRbpViVpumX8fci7fSoUunxJ= twj7iBcBPU6tjsc2DwGSc9s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...DMX...DVN...GRB...MKX...MPX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48228962 47748933 45408862 43648935 42109078=20
41619219 42109326 43829283 45429220 47259153=20
48209035=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240111
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-240630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0128
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
910 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Areas affected...southeastern KS, northeastern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 240109Z - 240630Z

Summary...A focused region of flash flooding is expected to set up
over portions of southeastern KS into northeastern OK through 06Z.
Slow movement/training of cells will lead to hourly rainfall of 1
to 3 inches and storm total rainfall of 2 to 4+ inches over the
next few hours.

Discussion...Area radar imagery across the central Plains at 01Z
showed two intense areas of slow moving convection. First over
eastern KS, over and just northeast of Wichita and a second area
over northern OK, bisecting I-35. The northern cluster of storms
was near the triple point (near ICT) and was associated with an
outflow boundary which intersected to the west, at the triple
point. Both areas have been associated with training and resided
within a very unstable environment with MLCAPE estimated in the
2500-3500 J/kg range (00Z SPC mesoanalysis and 00Z OKC sounding).
Fading visible imagery showed cloud streets oriented with the low
level inflow, south to north, into the northern OK thunderstorms.
The eastern KS/OK border lay beneath a diffluent upper level jet
pattern, favorable for increased ascent over the region.

As the low level jet continues to increase with the diurnal cycle,
exceeding 50 kt over northeastern OK by 03-04Z (recent RAP
forecasts), overrunning of the storm-generated cold pools should
continue to support convective regeneration along the southwestern
flank of the system with WSW to ENE training, while overall
southward propagation occurs gradually with time. The low level
flow is expected to veer by ~06Z which should allow the convective
cluster to advance eastward away from its current initiation point
along the dryline. However, up until that happens, locally heavy
rainfall is expected to support areas of flash flooding with total
rainfall totals of 2 to 4+ inches likely.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_4IhhlNU2-TD0lf6iOAtxNfWHMxiBhR6ZzQMqDoUwtb1AoqbV-UaP8nALEjLyD8ddVPY= CTr8DwZ8JwE5hBk8Xurdt5A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38339621 38269564 37749511 37399499 36559504=20
35959602 35739762 35999840 36709810 37739759=20
38179690=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240540
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-241135-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0129
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
138 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Areas affected...Central to Northeast OK...Far Southeast
KS...Southwest MO...Northwest AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 240538Z - 241135Z

SUMMARY...Backbuilding and training thunderstorms producing 1.5 to
2.5 inch/hour rainfall rates will pose a significant urban flash
flood threat across northern to northeast Oklahoma early this
morning. Convection will eventually grow upscale into an MCS and
track east-southeastward into the Ozark Plateau through dawn.
Broad totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with localized amounts
possibly exceeding 5 inches.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar and satellite trends depict a highly
active convective environment across northern Oklahoma.
Thunderstorms are continuously backbuilding and training along a
well-defined mesoscale outflow boundary, positioned east of a
dryline and ahead of a surface wave transiting a cold front. The
thermodynamic and kinematic environment is exceptionally
supportive of extreme rainfall rates. A strong 40 to 50+ kt
southwesterly low-level jet (LLJ) is impinging directly onto the
outflow boundary, providing intense moisture convergence and
tapping into a robust instability pool characterized by 2000-3000
J/kg of MUCAPE. Furthermore, upper-level divergence associated
with an ejecting trough is providing deep-layer ascent to sustain
robust convective updrafts.

Currently, this setup is fostering high-efficiency rainfall rates
of 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour. Given the quasi-stationary nature of
the boundary and the parallel alignment of the convection to the
deep-layer steering flow, persistent cell-training is occurring.
This will pose a significant, localized flash flood threat over
the highly sensitive urban footprints from Stillwater through the
Tulsa metro over the next few hours.

As the cold pool eventually strengthens and coalesces, convection
is expected to grow upscale into an east-southeast propagating
MCS. However, the strong southwesterly LLJ will continue to favor
persistent backbuilding on the southwest flank of the convective
mass, effectively slowing the forward translation of the heaviest
rainfall cores. High-resolution guidance (including the HRRR and
00Z HREF) supports widespread 2 to 4 inch totals, but given the
prolonged training potential, localized storm totals up to 5+
inches are highly probable.

Towards sunrise and through the 12Z time frame, this complex will
push into the Ozark Plateau across southwest Missouri and
northwest Arkansas. As the low-level flow interacts with the
complex topography of the Ozarks, mechanical lift will sustain
high rainfall rates. The steep, flashy basins of this region will
be highly susceptible to rapid runoff from these accumulations,
carrying a localized flash flood threat right through the morning
commute.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!87rVcEPmsU9ex1Yk0K8aWF2Pb8232nBhVf7ItOCXLPVZNzMyriOrFzStjEF4-wbQlPKD= d_jNmt4E0BBYixOlqowwVpI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37729347 37429237 36579207 35939265 35409427=20
35209635 35369772 35869835 36199831 36419785=20
36719636 37279469=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 250442
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-251000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0130
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1240 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Areas affected...Northeast TX...Far Southeast AR...Northern
LA...Central MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250440Z - 251000Z

SUMMARY...Locally heavy showers and thunderstorms with some
cell-training concerns can be expected over the next few hours.
Rainfall rates of up to 2 inches/hour may result in some isolated
and mainly urban concerns for flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar and satellite imagery shows
convection becoming a little more concentrated across portions of
northeast TX as modest upstream shortwave/jet energy interacts
with a well-defined outflow boundary and the pooling of rather
strong instability along it. Meanwhile, farther east across far
southeast AR and into central MS, an elevated axis of convection
is seeing with cooling convective tops associated with warm air advection/isentropic ascent over the top of a well-established
cold pool.

MUCAPE values across northeast TX and through northern LA and
southwest MS are on the order of 2000 to 3000 J/kg with modest
low-level flow in the 850/925 mb layer of only 10 to 20 kts.
However, there is some deeper layer ascent being facilitated by
upstream shortwave energy that is embedded within the deeper layer
westerly flow. This coupled with the low-level warm air advection
and proximity of the outflow boundary should tend to favor some
convective sustenance and perhaps further expansion of activity
over the next few hours across northeast TX through northern LA
and central MS.

Given the level of instability and with PWs of near 1.5 inches,
some of the rainfall rates may reach 2 inches/hour. Alignment with
the deeper layer westerly steering flow in the 850/300 mb layer
will suggest at least some concerns for localized cell-training,
and this may yield some additional rainfall totals of 3 to 4+
inches. This is also being advertised by some of the 00Z HREF
guidance.

Expect at least an isolated and mainly urban concern for flash
flooding over the next few hours as a result.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5ZkRTFNNWkfRCJJ2FBXzVe9MqwfN1u3t6urR953tBOnAQk-O2S2ZLVqfSPcLSDOHzWpy= KyTxBcxFRu0DUi3CEEDBNt0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...JAN...LCH...LIX...LZK...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33529134 33508963 32928865 32198847 31528903=20
31269031 31369280 31829516 32229628 32869624=20
32949521 33049332=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 252306
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-260503-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0131
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
704 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Areas affected...Northeast TX into Southeast OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 252303Z - 260503Z

SUMMARY...A localized flash flood risk exists through the evening
hours across portions of northeast TX into southwest OK.
Supercells will be capable of producing heavy rainfall resulting
in an urban flash flood risk. Additionally, localized cell mergers
near the warm front may also result in isolated flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Supercell activity is expected through the evening,
with development near a dryline and a warm front near the Red
River. The environment is characterized by extreme instability
(MLCAPE around 4000 j/kg) and strong shear (effective bulk shear
around 50kts). This overlap of ingredients supports supercells
with very large hail and heightened tornado potential (see SPC
tornado watch 144). While these are likely the primary hazards
associated with this convection, an isolated flash flood risk
could also evolve.

Limiting factors for heavy rainfall will be the very steep lapse
rates and some dry air in the mid levels keeping PWs around
1.4-1.6". However, strong mesocyclones within these supercells
will enhance lift and help increase rainfall efficiency. This will
result in heavy rainfall rates, though forecast supercell motions
off to the east-southeast at 10-20 kts should limit duration.
Consequently, the flash flood risk will primarily depend on
supercell mergers or clusters extending duration. This is
certainly a possibility, especially near the warm front where
persistent convergence and storm tracks along the front could
yield some training and local rainfall over 3". Even without cell
training a localized urban flash flood risk exists as these cells
can drop 2" of rain quickly.

Recent HRRR runs seemingly have a decent handle on the expected
convective evolution through the evening hours. The HRRR depicts
an uptick in 850mb moisture transport later this evening into
tonight, which will help sustain activity as convection
increasingly forward propagates. However, with moisture transport
persisting over northeast TX towards the Red River, we will need
to monitor for additional development overnight depending on how
this evenings supercells impact the instability field. If
additional development occurs, the pattern would support some
northwest to southeast training.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7Hyn8ePr9iIUeGEETHZyqRefzkhOuBk5OioV-2JVecsiaT7eE6mGIDCYy8_-xq3Td85K= BOvq6mqBoX6cyy3scyIbpeM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34809731 34729657 33959509 33499446 32589480=20
32489608 32769762 33269827 33829861 34169838=20
34509800=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260043
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-260641-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0132
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
842 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Areas affected...Southeast KS, Eastern OK, Western AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260041Z - 260641Z

SUMMARY...An isolated flash flood risk exists from far southeast
KS into eastern OK and western AR as convection briefly trains
and/or backbuilds across this corridor.

DISCUSSION...Convection across southeast KS into eastern OK will
pose an isolated flash flood risk tonight. This activity is well
north of the warm front closer to the Red River, but is close to
the 850mb front and moisture convergence axis. Despite a more
stable boundary layer, steep lapse rates are resulting in MUCAPE
over 2000 J/kg, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support
organized convection and supercell development.

While high resolution models have struggled with this activity,
the 23z HRRR and WoFS are now indicating that convection may
persist or grow upscale into eastern OK and west-central AR, and
recent observational trends are beginning to show some signs of
this. The 23z WoFS shows 90th percentile QPF exceeding 3" near the
OK/AR border. With 850mb moisture transport/convergence forecast
to maintain or increase a bit over the next several hours over
this region, this persistence scenario seems plausible.

There is some uncertainty regarding how convection further south
(MPD 131) might impact the organization of this northern activity.
If the activity further south grows upscale enough it could
negatively impact the intensity and organization of this northern
activity. However, given that current convection is over
performing and the environment remains conducive to organized
development, some flash flood risk exists over the next several
hours. Recent rainfall has also lowered FFG enough to support
isolated exceedances as cells move southeast or backbuild.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4B5qv05O2uHwvwtxBdoyY6_GbFqp-NjUbW7aDlr_fQ62iY_gtSdxKKbo5j-a-RZ1gG4U= iPXuhY1u19nB0NBayOk0Qpc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37389624 37029470 35619345 34709341 34329367=20
34429455 34859503 35549550 36709632=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260401
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-261000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0134
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1200 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Areas affected...Far Eastern Oklahoma...Western and Southern
Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 260400Z - 261000Z

SUMMARY... Elevated thunderstorms will continue to organize and
drop southeastward across western and southern Arkansas overnight.
Locally sensitive antecedent conditions combined with rates
approaching 2 inches/hour will support a likelihood for isolated
to scattered areas of flash flooding which will include some urban
impacts.

DISCUSSION...A broken axis of slow-moving and locally training
thunderstorms is ongoing across far eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. Unlike the surface-based activity further southwest,
this convection is elevated and rooted near the 850 mb layer. It
is being driven by strong 850 mb frontogenetic lift and the
proximity of a sharp instability gradient, with the convection
positioned well within an axis of 1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE and PWs
near 1.25 inches.

Upwind propagation vectors point toward the southeast. Over the
next several hours, this activity is expected to gradually grow
upscale, but with multiple MCS clusters dropping southeastward as=20
through west-central and eventually southern Arkansas. The 00Z
HREF highlights a 20 to 30 percent probability of 2 inch/hour
rainfall rates within the heaviest convective elements. Total
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are anticipated where some of
these convective clusters repeat over the same area.

The primary driver for the flash flood threat in this corridor is
the relatively sensitive antecedent conditions from recent
rainfall. The latest NASA SPoRT 0 to 10 cm relative soil moisture
data indicates highly moist antecedent conditions across eastern
OK and western AR. With a fairly compromised infiltration
capacity, the anticipated 2 inch/hour rates and any localized
cell-training will readily convert to runoff, posing a continued
flash flood threat through the predawn hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!49ecoj177dP5oakzAcDtYlovBERpppqbFIgfuctrNIPa3OSPO7idsMAYYXD9dWqzzI3D= MC7D4zb9BEuylvWALBqS6Zw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36149347 35579257 34639166 33889125 33219159=20
32989235 33199342 34399461 35469508 36069459=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260332
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-260930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0133
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1131 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Areas affected...Northern Texas...South-Central to Southeast
Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 260331Z - 260930Z

SUMMARY...Supercells and merging convective clusters will continue
to organize and propagate southeastward overnight. An increasingly
favorable nocturnal environment will support rainfall rates of 2+
inches/hour. While antecedent conditions are relatively dry,
intense localized rates and cell-mergers may yield totals of 2 to
4+ inches, posing especially an urban flash flood threat.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR/WV satellite imagery and recent
mesoanalysis show a low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over
the Plains interacting with a highly unstable airmass across the
Red River Valley. A highly conducive thermodynamic environment is
in place, characterized by PWs of ~1.5 inches, MLCAPE of 2500-3500
J/kg, and very steep mid-level lapse rates (7.5-8 C/km). This is
fueling robust supercellular convection, aided by deep-layer shear
locally exceeding 50 kts. Convection over northern TX remains
largely surface-based within the warm sector, while activity over
southern OK is slightly elevated, supported by a stationary front
and 925 mb frontogenesis.

Through the overnight hours, the current 20 to 30 kt low-level jet
is forecast to intensify, and this nocturnal enhancement will
increase warm air advection and moisture transport directly into
the Red River Valley, particularly toward south-central and
southeast OK. Upwind propagation vectors are aligned to the
southeast, strongly favoring the gradual upscale growth of merging
supercells into a forward-propagating MCS.

The 00Z HREF indicates a 20 to 30 percent probability of rainfall
rates exceeding 2 inches/hour within the heaviest cores. Storm
totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts
where cell-training or complex mergers occur. While Flash Flood
Guidance (FFG) is higher across this corridor due to drier
antecedent conditions, the sheer intensity of the 2+ inches/hour
rates will easily outpace infiltration, resulting in isolated to
scattered areas of flash flooding, especially over any urban
footprints. This will include portions of the Dallas-Fort Worth
metropolitan area over the next 1 to 2 hours in particular.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_WY6Q3jdw2wzm8UWjF8F_wtHXHhRQ1mYvg0Bix0Uq_GrsY_cSRLOHLMHc7GdIRqJ-Zu1= RPTZ2V72_NEnGTbwWKMPCMA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34429609 33999474 33359420 32639414 32009488=20
32039649 32519751 32969786 33759788 34269736=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 262101
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-270258-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0135
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
459 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Areas affected...Eastern KS and Western MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 262058Z - 270258Z

SUMMARY...A generally progressive convective line crossing Kansas
will produce locally heavy rainfall. An increase in backbuilding
or training on the southern extent of the line could lead to
isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding over the next
several hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a severe convective line
progressing eastward across portions of Kansas. Thus far, the
progressive forward motion of this activity has largely limited
the flash flood threat. However, the mesoscale environment along
the southern flank of this line is becoming increasingly
supportive of additional convective development and possible
training.

Recent mesoanalysis indicates PWAT values are currently hovering
around 1.4 inches. While not extreme overall, these values are
above the 90th percentile for this time of year, providing
sufficient moisture for efficient rainfall production. Instability
is moderate, with MLCAPE currently analyzed around 1000-2000 J/kg.
Higher instability values upstream are expected to advect into the
region, driven by increasing southerly low-level moisture
transport.

As the primary convective line continues eastward, its progressive
nature should keep the widespread flash flood threat low. However,
the increasing moisture transport and instability feeding into the
southern extent of the line should allow for some new updraft
development, supporting backbuilding or training of cells. Should
this mesoscale evolution materialize, localized training of
intense rainfall rates could overwhelm local drainage capacity or
sensitive basins, leading to an isolated to scattered flash flood
threat across portions of eastern KS into adjacent areas of
west-central MO. The northern extent of the line should remain
progressive, keeping the threat confined to a localized urban risk.

Confidence in the exact convective evolution over the next several
hours remains somewhat below average, as the high-resolution model
guidance have struggled to accurately handle the ongoing activity
and placement. However, the 19z HRRR and 18z RRFS are starting to
show an enhanced QPF signature over southeast KS into west-central
MO. This supports the idea of an increasing training/backbuilding
risk over this corridor with 3"+ rainfall possible, potentially
focused around the southern extent of the outflow from the ongoing
MCS.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4p2WqBT35d8F_3X-42PbXNVk_-lZoJ1pd66QqUzfhGDbuI7y2SW4U0YvLsxJN3CfoYhw= vDstoC_7o7Zp_Fk5oCgjbzM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39319460 39209427 38809342 38499314 37709302=20
37129340 37039441 36989570 37009623 37009656=20
37009692 37049731 37629699 38189612 38559589=20
39199554 39299504=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270203
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-270800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0136
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1001 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Areas affected...Southeast KS, Southwest MO, Northeast OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270200Z - 270800Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving supercells and cell mergers will pose at
least an isolated flash flood risk this evening across portions of
Southeast KS, far northeast OK and southwest MO. The degree of
upscale growth into a larger convective cluster remains uncertain,
keeping confidence lower for a more widespread threat.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery currently depicts scattered
supercellular convection ongoing across the region. Recent
mesoanalysis indicates impressive MLCAPE ranging from 1500 to 3000
J/kg collocated with strong deep layer shear. Moisture is
moderate, with PW values analyzed around 1.3-1.5 inches, but
rainfall efficiency will likely be enhanced within any stronger
mesocyclones.

Over the next several hours, large scale forcing for ascent is
expected to gradually increase as a shortwave trough approaches
from the west, accompanied by strengthening upper level
divergence. Concurrently, low level moisture transport and
convergence are forecast to intensify this evening. This evolution
should promote at least some upscale growth of the ongoing
convection into larger multi-cell clusters that slowly move off to
the east-southeast. As convective coverage increases, the risk of
cell mergers, backbuilding, and training will naturally rise,
setting the stage for localized swaths of heavier rainfall.

There remains some uncertainty regarding the exact degree of
upscale growth this evening. At a minimum, the slow-moving nature
of the ongoing supercells combined with a few cell mergers should
result in at least an isolated flash flood risk. At a maximum, the
increasing moisture convergence and large scale forcing will drive
enough upscale convective growth to force a more focused area of
flash flooding.

Despite the uncertainty in the exact convective evolution, high
resolution guidance highlights the heavy rainfall ceiling should
consolidation occur. Notably, 00z WoFS depicts over an 90%
probability of exceeding 3 inches of rainfall in a swath near the
KS/OK/MO intersection, a 40-70% probability of localized totals
exceeding 5 inches, and a 90th percentile rainfall of 7". The
exact footprint of the WoFS may not perfectly verify, but it
illustrates a realistic heavy rainfall potential given the
ingredients currently in place.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9asc44z1Ie5HYee6Y51YDr4OzdBO8kbY-qpON2I9YMJvG8HCwnHWTsBRCpzNvuEj_5v4= bE2A5l3wPdn3uZpdrxV01Nw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38659279 38429233 37739183 36759218 36489325=20
36449456 36559611 36999644 37759574 38059519=20
38349420=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270517
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-271115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0137
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
115 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern KS...West-Central and
Northwest MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270515Z - 271115Z

SUMMARY...An intensifying nocturnal low-level jet will foster a
corridor of heavy, and locally training thunderstorms across
portions of central and eastern Kansas through west-central and
northwest Missouri overnight and into early Monday morning.
High-efficiency rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour and localized
storm totals of 2 to 4+ inches are expected. A concern for urban
flash flooding will exist.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite imagery is showing the
development and expansion of cold-topped convection across central
Kansas as upstream shortwave energy/troughing ejects east across
the central High Plains and interacts with the nose of an
increasingly strong southwesterly low-level jet. This is
coinciding with the pooling of strong instability along and
poleward of a warm front across southern Kansas.

MUCAPE values are as high as 2000 to 3000 J/kg with PWs locally as
high as about 1.25 inches. The increasing low-level jet overnight
in conjunction with strengthening DPVA/jet-dynamics downstream of
the approaching trough will facilitate upscale growth of
convection over the next few hours across central and gradually
eastern Kansas. Some of the latest guidance, and notably the HRRR
solutions, suggests a well-defined surface low evolution from
southwest to northeast Kansas by late tonight which would focus
enhanced moisture transport and forcing up across areas of eastern
Kansas and eventually northwest Missouri early Monday morning as
the aforementioned warm front lifts northeastward.

Given the level of low-level jet energy (reaching 40 to 50+ kts)
and the high CAPE values nosing in aloft, the rainfall rates are
likely to be rather high, and capable reaching well into the 1 to
2 inch/hour range. This is generally supported by the 00Z HREF
guidance, and especially recent HRRR runs. Alignment of the
convection with the deeper layer westerly flow suggests a
favorable environment for cell-training.

The overall consensus of the CAM guidance would favor 2 to 4 inch
rainfall totals with locally higher amounts possible going through
the predawn hours. A concern will exist for urban flash flooding
over the next several hours going through early Monday morning.
Some areas that may see impacts will include the urban corridor
from Manhattan through Topeka and the Kansas City metropolitan
area.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-ASARoRq9Kw1WBYaLM81msO1W3Seni468uazA5s_h98oCspoXsKP1MqJ3uxOyuzvamTx= Ggq5WNHlCMehUFVCuCF3aro$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...LSX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40249349 39989238 39429199 38939253 38399439=20
38179626 38319799 38709869 39199870 39649764=20
39979620 40169497=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270940
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-271535-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0138
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
537 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...Northeast and East-Central KS...Central and
Northern MO...West-Central IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 270937Z - 271535Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding will be likely going through the morning
hours from locally training thunderstorms that will be capable of
producing 1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall rates. Additional rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated heavier totals will be
possible by midday, with a threat for locally significant urban
flash flooding impacts as a result.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite imagery shows a well-defined axis
of heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting portions of northern
and eastern KS, with activity very quickly advancing into
northwest MO. This includes the Topeka and Kansas City
metropolitan areas. Deep convection with cold convective tops as
low as -70C are noted across the region, and the activity is
exhibiting several overshooting tops which is indicative of
particularly strong convective updrafts and enhanced rain rates.

The activity continues to advance generally off to the east in
association with an ejecting shortwave trough across western and
central KS with excellent divergence aloft working in tandem with
a southwest low-level jet of 50 to 60 kts around the southeast
flank of multiple waves of surface low pressure. These ejecting
waves of low pressure are helping to channel enhanced moisture and
instability transport across eastern KS and into western and
northern MO as a warm front gradually gains latitude downstream
across central MO and southern IL.

MUCAPE values are as high as 2000 to 3000 J/kg with PWs locally as
high as about 1.5 inches across eastern KS and nosing through
northern MO. This favorable thermodynamic environment coupled with
enhanced kinematic wind fields/shear will strongly support a
continuation of organized MCS activity traversing the Lower MO
Valley this morning with convection likely becoming more
concentrated by mid-morning across north-central MO and eventually
into areas of west-central IL.

Rainfall rates will easily be into the 1 to 2 inch/hour range, and
with an excellent cell-training environment, some additional
rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated heavier amounts
will be possible. Flash flooding is already occurring over parts
of east-central and northeast KS through west-central MO including
the Topeka and Kansas City metropolitan areas. Additional rounds
of heavy rainfall over the next couple of hours here will support
the potential for significant urban flash flooding impacts.

Areas downstream across north-central MO and eventually
west-central IL will likely see the threat for at least some flash
flooding increase through the morning hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!66y8OBhaLeMgVBXpqi8DQMipRKbuYpDzNqw7oHVGloPDpxjTclEv-g8PmUDU_qnTar1B= XVoSaeMuRfh-HxGzh4KmGj0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...ICT...ILX...LSX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40489182 40358991 39618884 38658930 38359141=20
38249425 38349620 38679675 39239685 39759618=20
40149478 40369334=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271447
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-272045-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0139
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1046 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...Central Illinois through Greater St. Louis into
Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271445Z - 272045Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding threat continues to progress east across
Illinois through midday with a risk for training thunderstorms
that produce 1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall rates. Rainfall totals of 2
to 3 inches with isolated heavier totals are possible through the
afternoon, with a threat for locally significant urban flash
flooding impacts.

DISCUSSION...A well-defined bowing line of thunderstorms with
areas with rates up to 1.5"/hr is pushing into central Illinois
with a tail extending to west-central Missouri. This is generally
north of the St. Louis metropolitan area, but impacts will
eventually reach there today. Scattered prefrontal activity from
central to southern Illinois will also continue to develop and
shift northeast.

The activity is ahead of a shortwave trough over central KS with
excellent divergence aloft working in tandem with a southwesterly
low-level jet of 45 to 55 kts ahead of the surface low center near
the KS/MO border. Enhanced moisture and instability continues to
flow across southern MO and IL.

MUCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg with PW around 1.5 inches
across up the mid-Miss Valley. This favorable thermodynamic
environment coupled with enhanced kinematic wind fields/shear will
strongly support a continuation of organized MCS activity across
central IL with the right tail laying down near I-70/St. Louis.

Rainfall rates will remain in the 1 to 2 inch/hour range with
localized additional rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches. The
progression of the system has recluded further flash flood
warnings over eastern MO into IL, but given increasing coverage in
central IL and the right flank laying down orthogonal to the
inflow will be the focus for flash flooding in addition to urban
areas.

This activity will progress into Indiana this afternoon and
further discussions are likely.


Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9SHhxJT_jN2-DO0zt70zh1rRab8y-4DUoh6jQXRFeyBSIikyzuH8Z0CGHa2s22PSm0gj= Jpfy_XDW1aSxsG6meub3gMQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...ILX...IND...IWX...LMK...LOT...LSX...
PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41248926 41218700 40118643 38998649 38228721=20
37888830 38178932 38189029 37849235 38059308=20
38439333 38899204 39359064 40089034 40959066=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271857
FFGMPD
OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-280030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0140
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...Southern IND...Southeast IL...Northwest KY...
Bootheel of MO...Extreme Western OH...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271900Z - 280030Z

SUMMARY...Weakening of initial MCS and flanking WAA cells in the
Lower Ohio River Valley. Rates up to 1.5"/hr and stripes of 2-3"
still pose possible localized flash flooding concerns through
evening hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR and GOES-E Visible loop denote a
decaying MCS continuing to advance eastward recently crossing the
central IND/IL border. Though the MCV is shearing to the
northeast in a degrading stratiform region, the southeast flank
remains fairly active with a few scattered individual cells
extending southward from the elevated warm front moving across the
Ohio River proper. VWP still depicts strong low level southerly
flow veering to southwest through S IL with 40-50kts through 700mb
providing the advection of the higher theta-E air over the stable
(reinforced by morning cloudy conditions) over south-central to
southeast IND.

Still,the higher moisture availability along with building sharp
MUCAPE gradient to 500-2000 J/kg advecting northeast to help
maintain these cells; through strengthening is probably a bit more
limited. There remain strong flux convergence to support 1.5"/hr
rates with occasional localized peaks to near 2". Combine these
rates with a slightly flattening of the convective line to the
deep mean steering flow should still support localized 2-3"
streaks through the late afternoon into the evening hours. Strong
upstream convergence would also support flanking
cell/back-building environment to further increase overall
coverage of thunderstorm activity...particularly across S IND and
far the Ohio River counties of northwest KY.

Relative soil moisture values are slightly below average and FFG
values reflect this slightly higher requirement for exceedance and
result in flash flooding to be considered possible and localized,
though intersection with any urban center would increase this
potential.

Upstream shortwave will result in an additional line of strong convection/thunderstorm activity that will pose a higher potential
for flash flooding into the overnight period; so even if this
round doesn't result in flooding, it will saturate the upper soils
likely to increase runoff problems. As such, please keep
weather-wise to local WFO warnings and advisory and subsequent
MPDs later this evening.

...MO Bootheel/S IL...
Deeper in the warm sector across the Tri-River Confluence area,
instability has built to over 3000 J/kg given temps nearing
mid-80s and Tds into the low 70s. Capping will likely limit
convective development, but Hi-Res CAMS still suggest isolated
broader updraft cores. Departure from steering of exiting MCS
influence and upstream height-falls over IA, leaves steering flow
a bit reduced and muddled to allow for slower motions perhaps with
some weak updraft rotation to further deflect forward propagation.
Any cells that can form in this regime will have solid capability
of 2"/hr rates give 1.5-1.75" total PWat and confluent low level
flux convergence if they do develop. As such, quick compiling
could be an issue given hourly FFG values of 1.5-2" and
2-3.5"/3hrs and may also result in a possible incident or two
localized flash flooding before cold frontal line later into the
overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7BM7XiGh5nW6vF2CTMkPjRTSCsscWaLSbEvHhHDU4XFRRrOaiqSgEmaxEDU2zQBLglRP= CI3del5BhrzAEAXL7d0FoQA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LMK...MEG...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40658478 39888425 38948457 38378532 37978609=20
37288766 36808856 36288976 36629045 37328982=20
38198890 38778835 40028703 40548594=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271958
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-280200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0141
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...Central to Southern Illinois and Missouri...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 272000Z - 280200Z

SUMMARY...Repeating Thunderstorms capable of 3-6" totals across
portions of Southern IL. More scattered, less efficient cells
upstream may repeat across saturated grounds in the Ozark Plateau
with more localized/scattered flash flooding likely too.

DISCUSSION...The environmental setup looks conducive for repeating
rounds of thunderstorm activity across portions of eastern
Missouri into south-central IL through the evening into early
overnight period, prolonging the potential for flash flooding
condtions. A well-defined thermal boundary extends across central
MO from near Fort Scott, KS to south of Jefferson City to near St.
Louis, in response to this morning's MCS. Temperatures have
returned to the low 80s with low 70s Tds in the lower elevations
surrounding the Ozarks, with upper 60s Tds within the Plateau.=20
However, CIRA LPW denotes, the core of the warm conveyor belt has
translated across SE MO into S IL responding to the initial
short-wave that sparked the MCS last night that has exited into
the Great Lakes Region. The main upper-level trof and
height-falls are starting to advance eastward over the
Upper-Midwest and broader LLJ has backed to southerly in response;
though a dry-slot can be seen nosing into from the SW over NE OK
into SW OK. As such, a very unstable environment with MLCAPEs to
3000 J/kg extends the length of the frontal zone with bimodal
strong sfc to boundary layer moisture convergence maxima along the
western end near the advancing northern stream cold
front/height-falls in KS and along the warm conveyor belt from
St.Louis to the old MCS squall line in SW IND.

Reduced moisture into the upstream cells near the cold front will
help reduce overall rates and while the updrafts will support more
severe signatures of hail, winds and possible tornadoes (see SPC
MCD 572), the compromised soils from the heavy rainfall last night
2-5" have reduced FFG values to less than 1.5"/hr and broadly less
than 2"/3hrs across much of the MO portion of the MPD. So
accompanying the severe, will be solid moisture flux to support
hourly rates of 1.5"/hr with much coming in sub-hourly
time-frames. So flash flooding is likely along and south of the
front especially between I-70 and I-44, though may be more
localized and these isolated totals should be less than 3".

Downstream, ongoing strong thunderstorms are intersecting the
45-50kt SWly LLJ within the core of the warm conveyor belt/q-axis
through the Mississippi River Valley. some post-MCS recovery has
resulted in elevated MUCAPE back to 2500 J/kg and convection is
once again expanding along the convergence line from the old MCS
cold pool back along the remaining thermal boundary. Flux
convergence will support rates up to 2"/hr though WoFS 5-min and
HRRR 15-min totals suggest most will be sub-hourly in the cores of
the broader downdrafts, with max values of .4-.5" and 1.25-1.4"
respectively. Deep layer steering the wake of the inital
shortwave and the relatively digging upstream shortwave support
flow that is fairly parallel to the boundary with some
south-southeast forward propagation with time. As such, a
prolonged training/repeat environment is developing across the
eastern portion of the MPD generally along and just south of I-70.
Hi-Res CAMS including the HRRR and WoFS support areas of 3-5"
with above average confidence particulalry further east, though
the more rapidly refreshing solutions show a southward trend
consistent with current Vis, RADAR loops. WoFS forecast mean
around 4" and 90th percentile near 6" is a solid range though 00z;
with a line of 2-3" back toward St. Louis ans the cold front fills
in with another round. These totals are likely to result in flash
flooding this evening into early overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_aWbu-ODH-Z-xIypGr_plPoXuzgvV27KplbdkmEpfRI3JIx56NWGYHNxRheEHzARg7wF= 6PDpCniPq67qjBNYitr3lsI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ILX...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39718957 39718841 39448778 38758767 38188820=20
37878902 37669009 37509105 37369209 37339298=20
37429453 38239463 38619417 39499140=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 272137
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-280200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0142
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
537 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...Central and Northeast IL...Far Northeast MO...Far
Northwest IND...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272140Z - 280200Z

SUMMARY...Elevated convection with capability of 1.5"/hr rates and
totals up to 2.5" due to short-term repeating across recently
saturated/low FFG soils pose possible localized flash flooding
risk, especially near prone urban centers.

DISCUSSION...GOES-WV shows shortwave at the base of mean longwave
trough over the NEB/IA/MO/KS intersection lifting northeast
providing solid DPVA along and downstream in northern MO. Low
level jet response has been to lift the old outflow boundary/front
northward over the last few hours with solid boundary layer WAA
confluent along the upwind edge of a old surface pressure
trough/convergence axis from Keokuk north through SW WI. As such,
theta-E ascent along with some insolation recovery over central IL
has seen a narrow wedge of increasing MLCAPE to 2000-2500 J/kg
into far NE MO along the pressure trough but well ahead of the
approaching cold front. Southeasterly surface flow with Tds in
the the low 60s combined with the southerly 925-850mb proving
sufficient moisture flux as well to feed developing thunderstorms
along this axis.=20

Hi-Res CAMs including the 18z Nam-Nest have shown a steady
increasing trend to convective vigor and coverage into central IL
toward the evening. Rates of 1-1.5"/hr are expected given the
strengthening moisture flux convergence in the sharpening
deformation zone/north of the main front ahead of the height-fall
maximum. Cells will be faster moving along the nose of the 110kt
jet streak but should be aligned for an hour or so, before
eastward propagation stops the short-term training. Short-term
totals should be 1-1.5" but in these streaks of short-term core
training (especially over the next few hours), a spot or two of
2.5" could be possible. Overall, the grounds had lower FFG due to
higher seasonal rains, but this morning's MCS helped to saturate
the upper soils, so capacity is slightly reduced. FFG values of
1-1.5"/hr and less than 2"/3hr (especially further south across
central IL) remain possible to be exceeded over the next few
hours. Additionally, there is a lower possibility that cells may
maintain or build far enough north before the height-falls/cold
front wash over that sub-urban and southern Chicagoland may see
these quick hitting sub-hourly 1"+ totals, which has typically
been an issue for urban flooding as well.=20=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4ELlyUm2NjQ_I-_GsHCFMVuqWEqlwknvPVl0At1OkAjcVlkn4QobN80G9Bp10dA5l_1N= gVBeHe0ciysiWJHicAtw5zI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42058784 41588676 40918642 40278668 39628790=20
39538839 39449018 39319217 40639101 41588936=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 280030
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-280630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0143
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
829 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Illinois...Central & Southern
Indiana...Northwest Kentucky...Ext. Southwest Ohio...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 280030Z - 280630Z

SUMMARY...Ongoing isentropic ascent over saturated areas for a few
more hours before cold front convection rolls through with an an
additional 1-2" in hour for localized pockets of additional 2-4"
totals. Scattered localized incidents of flash flooding likely to
continue overnight.

DISCUSSION...00z surface analysis continues to show broad SSWly
flow through the MS Valley intersecting a well defined and
deepening cold pool from the prolonged MCS from last evening. The
outflow boundary extends from south of CVG to SDF before
intersecting the stationary front/effective warm front northeast
of Evansville, IND. The warm front has slowly shifted eastward
out of the MS Valley and generally in the vicinity of the
Tennessee River. A 999mb surface just moved through the St. Louis
Metro as the cold front is starting to surge eastward under the
influence of the strong height-falls from the shortwave across
northern MO at this time. As such, the LLJ has responded by
broadening with VWP denoted 40-50kts of SSW intersecting the old
outflow. East toward the outflow boundary, the instability is
reduced just east and cells have fractured though still remain on
a fairly favorable west to east repeating orientation across SW
IND into NW KY near Louisville. Core of the warm conveyor
belt/q-axis is aligned here with TPW values remaining above 1.5",
with maximized values near 1.75" along the Wabash. As such, these
cells remain fairly efficient occasionally reaching 2"/hr though
1.5" seems to be average, though with some southward propagation
of the cold pool, the overlap with areas flooded earlier this
evening is decreasing resulting in a broader area of 2-4" totals,
which is at or just above 1 to 3hr FFG values suggesting flooding
is likely to continue locally, particularly in/near urban centers
due to broad areas of hydrophobic surfaces.

Upstream, the instability axis remains west of the moisture axis,
due to slightly steeper mid-level lapse rates/intrusion of
mid-level EML across SW to east-central MO. MLCAPEs of 2500 J/kg
nose toward the surface low and frontal zone across S IL with 3500
J/kg values upstream in SE MO to feed increased convective
activity along the front. As such, convergence is maximized near
the surface wave and stationary boundary and will likely maintain stronger/broader updrafts capable of highly efficient rainfall
production. However, deep layer steering due to the height-falls,
mid-level stronger jet has been and will reduce residency time and
limit additional rainfall totals to 1-2", likely in 30 to 60
minutes as the track through the saturated areas of south-central
IL and eventually intersection with the ongoing west to east
repeating cells and saturated areas of Southern IND. The
quickness of rates/totals will more likely further expand any
ongoing flooded areas, with some spots receiving up to an
additional 4"+ through 06z.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8KNIAifvnIXx1Byaywpt-fsTJkLkuReKRQVvn4nVPGbAODsYBnBx59QQpmYyt-g-gXqN= KeEzzY-iithZeJgeeKbfjMo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40258674 40238524 39498436 38508404 37858439=20
37218647 36698861 37268959 38588882 39388815=20
39918738=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 280138
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-280700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0144
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
937 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Texas...Far Southwest Arkansas...Far
Northwest Louisiana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280140Z - 280700Z

SUMMARY...Slow right moving supercells with very high moisture
flux and capability of 2-2.5"/hr rates pose highly localized 2-4"
streaks capable of localized flash flooding in early overnight
period.

DISCUSSION...Surface and CIRA Sfc-850 LPW show a very moist
boundary layer with a surge of Gulf moisture reaching the Red
River though eastern TX with Tds in the middle 70s with a few
upper 70s values dotted across. A dry line bulge exists across
south-central OK with a surface wave near KSRE and the cold front
slowly sagging southward across central to northeast OK. With
loss of day-time heating/mixing, the dry line is already starting
to retrograde as surface winds back to south and southeast in NE
TX providing the convergence necessary to break the stronger cap
near and northeast of the Dallas metro area in the last few hours.
A few cells further north with reduced convergence, weakened, but
now the the updrafts are established with ample rotation, the
moisture flux is likely sufficient to maintain these cells.
MLCAPEs of 4500 J/kg will keep updrafts strong to maintain
increased isallobaric inflow.

Additionally, given the stronger updraft rotation, cell motions
are also going to decrease supporting increased residency of the
cells. Currently, hail production has been dominant, but KDP
signals have shown heavy rainfall production is starting to be
more focused as well for the pair of right mover in Rockwall and
Hopkins county.=20

Given the strong inflow of those 70s Tds and overall TPW to 1.75",
rates of 2-2.5"/hr are possible, especially as the updrafts
broaden the overall profile moistens. As such, localized 3-4"
totals are considered possible. While FFG values are naturally
high and soils are dry, that means they are fairly hard as well,
reducing uptake of the amount of water at that rate, suggesting
localized flash flooding/rapid inundation ponding in urban areas
is considered possible overnight.=20=20=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6uosHqGob-xjnGhbejXdEU3F7-7NlQfzF9s2CorLea9v0kO_jK6X2iAtxeYlLFGpo4Ki= v2gihXiT9rQgN1j4le0_Dvc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 33759449 33559344 32999304 32419346 32289498=20
32299563 32409658 32879705 33439661 33709572=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281525
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-282030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0145
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1124 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...north-central MS into central AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281520Z - 282030Z

SUMMARY...Training and repeating thunderstorms are expected for
portions of north-central MS into central AL through the early
afternoon. Peak hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches will occur (locally
higher values possible) within areas of training with localized
flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from 1510Z across northern MS and
north-central AL showed scattered thunderstorms located north of
an outflow boundary that stretched from near GWO to TCL to EUF.
The western end of the ouflow boundary has been nearly stationary
over the past few hours and 0-1 km AGL winds were from the SSW at
15-20 kt, overrunning the outflow boundary and allowing for some
very brief training and peak hourly rainfall up to ~1 inch at
times. Aloft, flow was diffluent, helping to support broader scale
ascent across the region. 12Z soundings from FFC to BMX to JAN
showed that MUCAPE varied across the South, with MUCAPE values
increasing toward the west with 1500-2000 J/kg at JAN.

Recent forecasts from the RAP do not show any significant changes
to elevated instability values from MS into AL through 21Z but do
show the low level flow weakening and veering a bit. Therefore, it
is unclear how much upstream development will continue but there
will continue to be some degree of overrunning and likely upstream
thunderstorm development for at least the next 2-4 hours, aided by
subtle impulses aloft within the WSW mid-level flow. There will be
the potential for repeating cells and training along and north of
the outflow boundary with hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches and
localized 3 to 4+ inch totals within 2 to 3 hours, possibly
leading to localized flash flooding. Largely dry antecedent
conditions may limit any flash flooding to urban or otherwise
sensitive locations.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4vGPCOKiulQUd15Il53z5GxqSm1yeN7rH_TetrmvIGmf_YUMQdaF-iv9DWHNJB-L9jAs= RDtpHjlAvUBA874txxJ0VI0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34488940 34228763 33688616 32828591 32308649=20
32258763 32918901 33409048 34089045=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281834
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-290015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0146
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
234 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...southeastern OK/northeastern TX into southern
AR/northern LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281832Z - 290015Z

SUMMARY...An increase in the coverage of thunderstorms is expected
across portions of southeastern OK/northern-northeastern TX into
southern AR/northern LA through the afternoon. Repeating and brief
training of heavy rain could result in isolated 3 to 5 inch totals
within a 2 to 3 hours window along with flash flooding, although
any coverage of these higher rainfall values should remain limited.

DISCUSSION...18Z surface observations helped place a
quasi-stationary front from a low near the Red River, northwest of
SPS, east-northeastward into central AR. The environment along and
south of the front was very unstable with MLCAPE of 2500 to 4000+
J/kg via 18Z SPC mesoanalysis data. Scattered thunderstorms were
ongoing along and north of the front from south-central MO into
western and southern AR, with motions averaging 30-40 kt toward
the ENE. It was relatively quiet to the west but upstream, water
vapor imagery showed a shortwave trough axis over the southern TX
Panhandle with movement approaching the Red River. Visible imagery
showed the early stages of convective development ahead of the
dryline and near the stationary front ahead of the Red River
surface low.

Additional thunderstorm development within the unstable airmass is
likely over the next few hours as upstream energy interacts with
numerous boundaries (including an outflow boundary currently
between the DFW Metroplex and the Red River) and the unstable
environment where CIN is continuing to decrease with daytime
heating. Sufficient shear exists for organized cells, with
supercells and multicells containing movement from the W or WSW.
While the general movement of most cells should be progressive
toward the east, there is potential for some localized upstream
redevelopment and brief training which could result in 1 to 2
in/hr rates and 3 to 5 inch totals on an isolated basis.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_bGaOFFGjC6XB_HKwCI2eTopET_qfHn6SCXLfVcbDxgy9iAvjk0ir3l3fMI5jxzdH5H4= DSxNWgGytZKGc1DZrIrWe7s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...JAN...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35449344 34919229 34009119 33359107 32789167=20
32099310 31649567 31949757 32789856 33479896=20
34219876 34709773 34929555=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 282031
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-290200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0147
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...Western & Middle TN...Northern MS...Northwest
AL...Eastern AR...Southwest KY...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 282030Z - 290200Z

SUMMARY...Congealing clusters with rates of 2"/hr to have widely
scattered to scattered 2-3.5" totals in 2-3hrs posing possible
localized incident or two of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Vis and 10.3um EIR loops along with regional
RADAR composite, denotes the scattered clusters of thunderstorms
are starting to congeal across eastern AR with merging
up/downdraft structures. Overshooting top/billowing anvils are
denote the modest upper-level divergence in the area along the
southern split in the polar (right exit)/subtropical jet. This is
supporting accelerating low-level flow with confluence in boundary
layer though the MS River Valley. Within this low level advection
regime, surface Tds in the mid-70s and CIRA LPW core of sfc-850mb
moisture near .75-1" value across southern AR should be advected
well into the complex increasing efficiency with time. As such,
the expansion coverage of ascent is increasing sufficiently to
support broadening 1.75-2"/hr rates, with some overall residency
time to likely support some localized 2-3.5" totals in 2-3hrs.=20
Downstream instability pool of 2500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE should
help to maintain/expand the complex across western TN into middle
TN with some possible southward building into N MS given the
favorable moisture environment further south as well.=20

Hydrologically, the grounds remain very hard and dry with RSM
0-40cm values around or below 30%. This hardness given the
magnitude of rates will be less absorptive at least initially,
that runoff should be higher than would be expected in such
drought conditions. Additionally, the FFG values across much of
TN are 1.5-2"/hr and generally 2-3" so widely scattered to
scattered incidents of flash flooding are considered possible
given the expected 2"/hr rates and spots up to 3.5". Obviously,
intersection with urban settings would further increase the
probability of localized flash flooding.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7mxcq72tpRSbVi7H-XJMWjSBLC6IGrpesCWwJmoE1oRh0KDjI0fujRI8x9LPHEgnO0oo= x2yhA74l2HC9WH1KV5QFRo4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36948711 36878647 36488589 35678617 35148675=20
34748778 34358945 34269016 34439090 35259095=20
35849076 36268997 36698868=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 282055
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-290200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0148
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
453 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...Central Mississippi...Central Alabama...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 282055Z - 290200Z

SUMMARY...Expanding Complex of Thunderstorms with capability of
2"/hr rates approaching areas saturated this morning, as well as,
lingering scattered activity

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR and 20z surface observations show
stabilized area and remnant outflow boundary across south-central
AL from KEUF to KTOI to KPRN that is starting to angle more
northwest to due north just west of the MS/AL line from KMEI to
KLMS to KSTF. Broad southwesterly low-level flow has be weak but
sufficient to maintain scattered thunderstorm activity along the
edge of this meso-high/stabilized area, but recent uptick in wind
along the upwind edge from the south and southwest to 30kts has
increased convergence and isentropic ascent to break out further
convection mainly on the SW edge toward Meridian, MS toward N
Clarke/Wilcox county in AL. Deep layer steering will keep them in line/parallel to the boundary to support some possible
training/repeating in proximity to areas affected by the initial
thunderstorm line earlier today.=20=20

However, further upstream; a strong divergence signal aloft in a
split between the polar/sub-tropical upper-level jets has migrated
eastward across the MS River and scattered thunderstorms have
started to congeal/expand into a larger complex over west-central
MS. Pooled moisture along the old outflow boundary as well as
increased values from further west (noted in CIRA LPW) show above
average moisture of sfc Tds in the low 70s, but overall TPWs
reaching near 2". This along with sufficient moisture flux
convergence should support rates of 2"/hr. The progressive nature
to the east should limit overall totals to 2-3.5" which given
recent drought and naturally higher FFG values are close but just
below exceedance. However, this morning has reduced some values
especially in proximity to Chickasaw to Noxubee counties in MS and
into Pickens county in AL which reduced to below 3" in 6hrs and
about 1.25-2"/hr; suggesting a slightly better chance of possible
flash flooding across that portion of the MPD. Overall, isolated
to widely scattered incidents of flash flooding will be possible
where repeating or slightly longer residency can occur likely to
storm-scale interactions.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7DYK6FGXdhXvSsgnqzGInQx2eAKE7jL1JNVI7BRx2y3bOBisQalNnQIFnSwAY9yu1Cbi= 743yq2pVYVFafXCMrWsac2E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...MEG...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34328910 34058786 33248605 32498521 31818537=20
31648627 31658732 31778863 31928947 32119028=20
32449078 33049105 33799089 34259020=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 290033
FFGMPD
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-290600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0149
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
832 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...Eastern AR...Northern MS...Northwest
AL...Southwest TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290030Z - 290600Z

SUMMARY...Increasing convective coverage with strengthening of the
low-level jet, ample moisture and occasional training/repeating
elements support rates up to 2+"/hr locally and widely scattered
spots of 2-4" inducing possible incident(s) of flash flooding
through early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows broad diffluence between the
split in the polar jet (which is deflecting northward through the
Ohio Valley) and the sub-tropical jet that is diving south across
E TX. This has supported some broad ascent and favorable
vorticity development across E AR in the mid-levels to support a
weak surface wave and northward warm-advective shift across
northern AR. LLJ continues to increase in speed and is utilizing
the western fridge of a shallow outflow that has been reinforced
by multiple rounds of convection across N MS today. Deep layer
moisture is pooled along that outflow boundary and is providing
solid flux to developing storms. However, RAP analysis shows
increasing capping across S AR with a remaining weakly capped or
uncapped area of 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE across north-central AR
angling southwest into NW MS attm. As such, increasing activity
is utilizing the buoyancy and divergence aloft to expand in
coverage and rainfall efficiency.

Overall deep layer moisture is at or around 2" and given the
vertical ascent capability and overall low level moisture
convergence/flux should support rates of similar values (2"/hr).=20
The limiting factor is the residency of any given cell, will be
limited due to east to east-southeast cell motions and forward
propagation. Orientation of the convective cells may allow for
some short-term training, but overall cells will be repeating
through areas that may have seen one or two earlier rounds today
with streaks of 1-3" locally. So an additional potential for 2-3"
with a worst case 4" total, is in line with or slightly exceeds
the FFG values in the area of concern. As such, a widely
scattered incident or two of flash flooding remains possible
through the overnight period as the wave/divergence maxima slides
eastward into the Delta Region and eventually N MS/AL, though
instability will be steadily reducing with time and therefore
overall coverage and intensity should follow.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-CTkPKTremPgq0Snm9Zw_rkJMeDN_-_PBaLeBsmdx_ic-RaVtzMST6TGUxvL9an3ivjo= nCJuMme4tzbY_ob9ji78_LY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35879144 35759006 35528911 35158827 34788758=20
34248684 33328717 32928777 32868882 33469023=20
34119139 34779289 35609302 35839249=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 290532
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-291130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0150
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
130 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Areas affected...Southeast AR...Central and Northern MS...Central
and Northern AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290530Z - 291130Z

SUMMARY...Broken clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms will
continue to advance east across large areas of the Mid-South
overnight. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour are expected and
some cell-training may result in additional localized swaths of 2
to 4 inches of rain by dawn. This will foster additional concerns
for isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding, and especially
around the more sensitive urban corridors.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
substantial cold-topped convective mass continuing to advance
gradually east across large areas of the Mid-South, with an
emphasis on southeast AR through central and northern MS, and also
adjacent areas of central and northern AL. All of this is
associated with the ejection of multiple waves of surface low
pressure out of the Lower MS Valley and toward the OH Valley as a
well-defined shortwave trough crosses the region.

Favorable upper-jet dynamics along with the nose of a convergent
30 to 40 kt low-level jet will continue to favor areas of locally
organized convection through the predawn hours across especially
northern MS and portions of central and northern AL. MUCAPE values
are highest across southeast AR through northern MS with values of
1500 to 2500 J/kg in place, and this coupled with PWs near 1.75
inches will favor high rainfall rates capable of reaching well
into the 1 to 2 inch/hour range. Effective bulk shear values of
locally over 50 kts remain in place based on the latest RAP
analysis and this should continue to favor multicells and some
supercell thunderstorms in the near-term that will contain these
enhanced rainfall rates.

The nose of the low-level jet should increase the moisture and
instability transport along with a corridor of well-defined
isentropic ascent across central and northern AL, so some of the
heavier rainfall may tend to focus across these areas over the
next few hours. In fact, the cloud top temperatures currently over
northwest AL are as cold as -70C, and thus indicative of strong
vertical velocities with enhanced thermodynamic forcing.

Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches can be expected where
any cell-training occurs. Given that some areas of have already
seen heavy rainfall, the additional rains will certainly continue
to support a threat for isolated to scattered areas of flash
flooding. The more sensitive urban corridors will also be at risk
for seeing impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_5JHa6Gfbv3mZTTfrUFAUl9DFKc1XRjn5u6KgiYIiKuHziyi64waYSxe59MLWRtLFM-Z= F_yCGuPILJpfb6dRdQ20l2U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34658825 34618704 34538615 34228559 33618527=20
32888545 32388644 32588849 33159031 33639217=20
34099237 34419113 34558971=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 291816
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-300000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0151
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
216 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Areas affected...Northern LA...Southern MS...Ext. Southwest AL...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291815Z - 300000Z

SUMMARY...Potential for training cells within deep moisture
profile suggests locally higher rates and potential for 3" totals
in 2-3 hours nearing FFG values suggests isolated incident(s) of
flash flooding are possible.=20

DISCUSSION...18z Surface analysis denotes last evening's outflow
boundary remains angled ESE from SW AL across central MS
intersecting the southward dropping cold front along I-20 between
Jackson and Vicksburg, before being aligned to a weak surface wave
in NW LA. Regional RADAR and visible imagery shows elevated
convection in proximity to the best divergence along the right
rotor of the upper-level jet crossing out of NE TX into LA;
helping to support the weak surface low. Low level wind has
responded with increasingly confluent surface to boundary layer
flow from the southwest intersecting the boundary. Clear skies in
the morning and surface temps to upper 70s over low to mid 70s Tds
support ample buoyancy with core of MLCAPE of 2500 J/kg centered
around and just north of the SW MS corner.=20

CIRA LPW shows enhanced surface to mid-level moisture advecting
toward this unstable area with values of .8-.9" in the sfc-850mb
resulting in overall PW totals nearing or locally exceeding 2",
suggesting efficient rainfall production in the relatively
narrow/skinny CAPE profiles. The greater concern is the
alignment of 800 to 400mb unidirectional steering flow mainly
parallel to the old outflow boundary supportive of
training/repeating potential. The strength of the low level
inflow/flux is only about 15-20kts which may be weak relative for
stronger updraft support but this weakness may counter-balance any southwestward propagation vectors to maintain the residency time
to overcome the drier ground conditions, e.g. FFG values. Still,
Hi-Res CAMs support short-term rates of 1-1.5" in 15-30 minutes
and combination with training spots up to 3" which suggest
localized FFG exceedance and therefore incident or two of
scattered flash flooding is possible.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9qxNoxYIO3qyp5Bw6Cm_MoewymUBWUJxjunwmjj0ripARxJDK5XcrWplPvHSeReqBMbK= uaXHUSS6RlTHn9XsUnA-fYY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33089375 33029226 32789090 32458949 32028829=20
31488807 30948836 30838922 30979021 31379156=20
32019317 32509386=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 292341
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-300530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0152
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
740 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Areas affected...Central Louisiana...Southwest Mississippi...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 292340Z - 300530Z

SUMMARY...Low end, isolated flash flooding risk continues as
upstream redevelopment remains in favorable flow regime to repeat
across areas affected with initial bout across central LA into S
MS.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic depicts MCV/precip shield
continuing to slide ESE across S MS toward SW AL with well defined
squall/bow of convective cores along the leading edge and along
the western flank across SW MS entering LA, having laid out solid
heavy rainfall swath of 1-2+" with isolated peaks of 3" totals
helping to reduce the naturally higher FFG values in the area.=20
GOES-E Visible and 10.3um EIR shows upstream new development
across far E TX into West-central LA with scattered weaker
isentropically forced cells over the outflow boundary betwixt the
main cores near the MS corner. VWP and RAP analysis suggest some
enhancing winds from LCH toward the northeast within the core of
highest remaining overall moisture.

Additionally, as the instability errodes or is utilized eastward,
a ribbon of unstable 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE exists within this
slightly strengthening SWly confluent low-level flow. As such,
stronger convergence should help to maintain/redevelop cells in
proximity to the outflow boundary and with deeper layer steering a
bit south of due east may allow for continued repeating/training
across central LA and perhaps into the affected areas of SW MS
over the early overnight period. Rates of 2-2.5"/hr are possible
given the the abundance of total moisture (over 2") and strength
of ascent. While flux is not extreme, it will also not drive
quicker southwestward propagation vectors further allowing the
potential for repeating. And additional 2-3" over areas with the
lowered FFG still suggest an isolated incident or two of localized
flash flooding remain possible overnight.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!85JTAlwHYNsu4YkWn2jk6VH3XRaticcNFtQducnj3a8W-RpIhLFv9T_iN-8HrdiUZnuF= JvV7GoAeS3fHB5bMeaZ3fAA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32369104 32238984 31758937 30888938 30548951=20
30389016 30489110 30709200 31039316 31359352=20
31739359 32089314=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 301641
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-302230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0153
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1240 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Areas affected...far southeastern TX into southern LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301638Z - 302230Z

SUMMARY...Training and repeating thunderstorms are expected across
portions of southern LA through at least the mid-afternoon. Peak
hourly rainfall values over 2 inches will be possible with
potential impacts to the I-10 corridor between Lake Charles and
New Orleans.

DISCUSSION...16Z visible satellite and area radar imagery showed
developing showers/thunderstorms over southern LA, along and south
of I-10, with a general movement off toward the ESE at 20 to 30+
kt following the deeper layer mean flow. However, a few slower
moving heavy rain cores were noted over Iberia and Assumption
parishes. Surface observations from 16Z showed these cells were
forming along a slow moving front which extended from the
Chandeleur Sound, west-northwestward into southwestern LA and into
a surface low northeast of Galveston Bay. 925-850 mb winds were
marginally stronger at 10-15 kt from the SSW into the front
(enhanced moisture flux) into the central Gulf Coast, between a
weak ridge over the east-central Gulf and subtle cyclonic flow
over TX.

The environment as sampled by the 12Z LIX sounding and 16Z SPC
mesoanalysis showed MLCAPE of 500 to 1500+ J/kg over southern LA
and PWs of 1.7 to 1.9 inches with moisture contributions from the
Gulf in the low levels and sub-tropical eastern Pacific in the
mid-upper levels as seen on OSPO ALPW imagery. Sufficient bulk
shear (40-55 kt via mesoanalysis) and instability was present for
organized cells. Given the weakening of low level inhibition with
continued daytime heating, thunderstorms are likely to continue
expanding along the front with a mixture of modes and speeds.
Given the mean steering flow oriented parallel to the initiating
boundary, and continued low level inflow from the south, there are
concerns for upstream redevelopment, repeating and training of
cells which will contain hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, but
locally higher values in excess of 2 inches will also be possible.
2 to 4 inch storm totals will be possible but the 12Z HREF and
recent HRRR/RRFS cycles indicate the potential for 4+ inches
through 23Z (although the RRFS appears overdone). Flash flooding
will be possible, with the greatest concern within the
metropolitan centers along I-10.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4b5N85STP0qax359_CZ0s9tF5YCu75GbpuU5Bikb13MRaxWusdEstSKpr6gG1O1NJmK6= ps7EUnab5xfAKe_W003Jx74$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30729283 30659105 30298967 29808899 29268886=20
29058934 29469049 29619162 29659296 29669378=20
29729436 30409428=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 010747
FFGMPD
TXZ000-011346-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0154
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 AM EDT Fri May 01 2026

Areas affected...South Central to Southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010746Z - 011346Z

SUMMARY...Elevated convection expanding north of a surface front
will pose an isolated flash flood threat through 14Z. While
individual storms will be fast-moving, multiple rounds of
convection tracking over the same areas could result in localized
totals of 2 to 3 inches, threatening urban areas and sensitive
Hill Country basins.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows elevated convection
continuing to expand across south-central to southeast Texas,
situated north of a surface boundary. Convective coverage and
intensity should be maintained into the morning hours as
large-scale forcing for ascent strengthens, driven by an
approaching mid-level shortwave and favorable upper-level jet
divergence.

The environment features a deep moisture profile, with
precipitable water values currently around 1.8 to 2.0 inches. This
is being supplied by a dual moisture feed, tapping into Pacific
moisture in the mid to upper levels and Gulf moisture in the low
levels. While this deep moisture generally supports efficient
precipitation production, instability is a limiting factor. MUCAPE
is currently analyzed between 500 and 1000 J/kg, but a slight
downward trend has been noted recently.

Spatially, the strongest instability remains confined to the
southern periphery of the convective shield. Here, organized cells
and embedded elevated supercells are maintained by strong
deep-layer shear. However, much of the available CAPE is above the
freezing level, supporting a notable hail threat that acts as a
negative factor for overall rainfall efficiency. With northward
extent, instability drops off, resulting in generally weaker storm
intensities. Additionally, individual storm motions remain
relatively quick across the board, which will limit the duration
of heavy rainfall at any single location.

Consequently, the flash flood threat will be contingent upon
multiple rounds of convection affecting the same locations. While
individual storms are capable of producing a quick 1 inch of rain,
the fast storm motions and weaker instability will make it
difficult to achieve significant totals from a single cell.
However, where repeated rounds track over the same area, localized
runoff issues could materialize as storm totals push toward 3
inches. Urban areas and the naturally flashy, sensitive basins of
the Hill Country will be most at risk, though at this time the
overall flash flood coverage is generally expected to remain
isolated through 14Z.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_oSL5XhjlOe7jYsYeXfqI8CSkANMdX9W0tVBf-MD6gcwQw-Fm8eGYNV2udRg8_hNjh56= lGpw3-mC32KRM5yqJ73hcxU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30729653 30719530 30589433 29669486 28839726=20
28369859 28070001 28060015 28490068 28860095=20
29420057 30279841=20

=3D =3D =3D
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