ACUS11 KWNS 242034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242034=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-242200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0849
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Nebraska into southwest Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 242034Z - 242200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Large to very large hail and severe winds will be possible
when storms develop/mature this afternoon. Timing remains uncertain,
but a watch is possible by late afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Deeper cumulus have developed near the SD/NE border.
Additional, but more shallow, development has also been noted from
near Sioux Falls into southwest Minnesota. How soon any of this
activity can develop into sustained thunderstorms is not clear given
the subtly rising mid-level heights this afternoon. Given the strong
surface heating, it is possible that a storm or two develops within
the next 1-2 hours. However, it is more probable that more robust
convection will initiate as lift from a shortwave trough now in
eastern Montana arrives closer to 00Z. 30-35 kt of effective shear
and -16 to -17 C at 500 mb (per 18Z ABR/OAX soundings) suggest
large/very-large hail and severe winds would be possible with
supercells. Timing of watch issuance remains uncertain. It is more
probable by late afternoon, but could be sooner if convective trends
warrant.

..Wendt.. 05/24/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8MNowg5o7IO0XEa0MmTfeidjTCNiqB-RgldTWdn_QJ0LzfA_Uvjp-er8ZMMBWwp0oS6fuYaQT= r3jw_QRuwhDCH4_pRU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...

LAT...LON 44389801 45049604 44849515 44599462 44329469 44109485
42849647 42709666 42309732 42159872 42879942 43519908
44389801=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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