ACUS11 KWNS 241755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241755=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-242000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0846
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Areas affected...Much of Georgia...eastern Alabama... into far
western South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 241755Z - 242000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may pose a risk for occasional
damaging gusts this afternoon. Storm organization will be limited
and a WW is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...As of 1745 UTC, visible and radar imagery showed
thunderstorms increasing in coverage over eastern AL, FL and much of
GA. Ample heating is occurring within a very moist air mass (70s F
dewpoints) supporting moderate instability. While low and mid-level
flow are quite weak, locally stronger convergence is occurring near
a broad MCV along the AL/GA border. This will continue to serve as a
focus for convective development this afternoon, with additional
storms likely to develop within the warm sector as convective
temperatures are breached. One or more clusters of stronger storms
appears plausible, with convection gradually spreading
east/northeastward into SC this afternoon/evening.

Given the very weak vertical shear, pulse multicellular storms are
the expected mode. Heavy water loading (PWATS near or exceeding 2
inches) will favor damaging gust potential with the stronger
downdrafts. But, the lack of broader upper air support and very weak
shear suggests the threat will be isolated and dependent on
favorable outflow interactions and storm-scale clustering. With the
severe potential likely to be sporadic, a WW is very unlikely.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/24/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9M4lQd3Be0Ubjo10beJhbJSOp62-nY86bBpB90eQSUkwDgmPOyIqdaobWsjUAgKmymEuSM7o5= wHhwl4s54N1l0YMp78$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON 30518351 30548433 31028490 32578573 33828614 34678570
34698508 34358418 34418243 33888139 32748127 32338138
31588149 30958197 30668262 30518351=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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