ACUS48 KWNS 010829
SWOD48
SPC AC 010827

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Some degree of severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist
through the upcoming weekend across portions of the Great Lakes/OH
Valley and possibly across the Mid-Atlantic. Heading into next week,
a combination of building surface high pressure behind a synoptic
cold front and the re-establishment of an upper ridge over the West
will limit severe weather chances.

...D4/Saturday - Great Lakes/OH Valley...
An upper wave and attendant surface low are forecast to quickly
translate from the Plains into the Great Lakes region late Friday
through Saturday. Moisture return immediately ahead of a trailing
cold front will likely support some degree of destabilization
Saturday afternoon across the Great Lakes/OH Valley; however,
long-range ensemble guidance does not show high probability in surface/mixed-layer buoyancy values exceeding 1000 J/kg.
Nonetheless, strong flow within the lowest 1-2 km will likely
support a severe wind threat with any convection that can become
sufficiently intense. While some severe risk is anticipated, the
combination of a modest thermodynamic environment and disagreement
regarding the timing/progression of the front through peak heating
precludes risk probabilities.

...D5/Sunday - Mid-Atlantic...
The synoptic cold front is forecast to push off the East Coast by
late Sunday, though long-range guidance shows disagreement regarding
the timing of the front. Slower solutions, such as the 00z ECMWF,
suggest that the frontal passage may occur during the afternoon
hours when diurnal destabilization will be greatest. Strong
low-level flow coupled with robust broad-scale ascent ahead of the
primary upper wave may support a band of strong to severe
thunderstorms. However, the general consensus among guidance at this
time is that this scenario is likely the outlier solution.

..Moore.. 04/01/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 020835
SWOD48
SPC AC 020833

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather potential will be limited for late weekend and into
the upcoming work week based on trends in latest guidance. A strong
synoptic cold front is forecast to push from the Appalachians and
lower MS Valley east/southeastward towards the East Coast and
northern Gulf through the day Sunday. While some severe threat may
materialize across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon,
it will be conditional on favorable timing of the frontal passage
with the diurnal heating maximum. The frontal passage will shunt
appreciable low-level moisture offshore by early Monday. Building
surface high pressure over the central to eastern CONUS through
early week will maintain dry and stable conditions east of the
Rockies. Additionally, the amplification of an upper ridge over the
West will limit thunderstorm chances across the Intermountain West.
This synoptic regime will limit moisture return back into the Plains
with most guidance suggesting that appreciable moisture return (55+
dewpoints) may not return to the Plains until the D8/Thursday time
frame. Consequently, the potential for severe convection will be
limited through at least the middle of the upcoming week.

..Moore.. 04/02/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 030822
SWOD48
SPC AC 030821

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...
From Monday to Wednesday, a relatively dry and cool airmass is
forecast to settle in across the continental U.S. For this reason,
thunderstorm potential will be low over most of the nation.

...Thursday/Day 7 to Friday/Day 8...
A large area of surface high pressure is forecast to move eastward
in the western Atlantic by Thursday, as moisture return takes place
into the south-central states. Scattered thunderstorm development
will be possible during the day from the southern and central Plains
eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A chance for
thunderstorms will continue into Friday over the same general area
as moisture advection continues. An isolated severe threat will be
possible each afternoon and evening, but the confidence in the
spatial distribution regarding any potential threat is low at this
time.

..Broyles.. 04/03/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 040846
SWOD48
SPC AC 040844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5...
A large area of surface high pressure will settle in across the
continental U.S. on Tuesday and Wednesday. The associated dry and
cool airmass will limit thunderstorm potential in most areas.

...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8...
On Thursday, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the
central Plains and stall, as moisture advection takes place to the
south of the front over much of the southern Plains. A dryline is
forecast to setup over west Texas Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorm
development will be likely along parts of the front and to the east
of the dryline. An isolated severe threat will be possible in the
afternoon and evening. Models differ considerably on the
distribution of instability, with some suggesting that instability
will remain relatively weak. This would keep any severe threat
marginal in most areas.

On Friday and Saturday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to
be in place over the southern half of Texas, as a shortwave trough
moves northeastward across the region. Lift associated with this
feature would support scattered thunderstorm development. The
greatest severe potential both Friday and Saturday appears to be
across south-central Texas, where the models have moderate
deep-layer shear and sufficient instability. At this extended range, uncertainty concerning magnitude and spacing is substantial.

..Broyles.. 04/04/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 050850
SWOD48
SPC AC 050848

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5...
From Wednesday into Thursday, an upper-level trough will move from
the High Plains into the Great Lakes, as a large area of surface
high pressure moves across the eastern U.S. Along the western edge
of this feature on Thursday, low-level moisture advection is
forecast from the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley. Within this returning airmass, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon and
evening. The best chance for severe storms would be across parts of
the central Plains, as the low-level jet ramps up in the evening.
Uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of any potential severe
threat.

...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8...
Moisture advection is forecast to continue on Friday over the
southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex, as surface dewpoints increase into
the 60s F. A slow-moving cold front is forecast to stall in the
central Plains, which would be a focus for thunderstorm development.
Isolated to scattered storms are also expected on Friday along and
to the east of a dryline in the southern High Plains. An isolated
severe threat would be possible in areas that sufficiently
destabilize. The potential for severe storms should continue into
Saturday and Sunday over the southern and central Plains, as an
upper-level trough moves across the region. At this time, model
spread is substantial concerning the magnitude and spatial
distribution of instability. The models also vary widely on the
timing and amplitude of the shortwave trough. For these reasons,
will hold off introducing a threat area until the models can show
better agreement.

..Broyles.. 04/05/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 060835
SWOD48
SPC AC 060834

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow over the south-central
U.S. is forecast to gradually transition from westerly to
southwesterly. In response, low-level moisture advection will likely
take place in the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe
storms will be possible near a front in the central Plains from late
Thursday afternoon into the early overnight period, as a low-level
jet strengthens. On Friday, weak instability is forecast to develop
over much of the southern Plains. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening across
parts of this airmass. An isolated severe threat may develop in some
areas, but deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak over
much of the southern Plains, suggesting a more localized severe
potential.

On Saturday, the potential for severe storms is expected to increase
over parts of southern High Plains, as mid-level southwesterly flow strengthens. Model consensus suggests that the greatest severe
threat potential will be over parts of west Texas, where some models
have an axis of moderate instability in place by late Saturday
afternoon. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be
possible in the afternoon and evening, with storms that develop near
this instability axis.

...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...
On Sunday, an upper-level low and an associated trough is forecast
to move eastward across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico.
Ahead of this trough, moderate instability is forecast to develop by
Sunday afternoon over much of the southern High Plains. Scattered
severe storms would be possible to the east of a west Texas dryline
in the afternoon and evening. A severe threat should continue into
the overnight as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the
approaching trough.

On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly
northeastward across the central U.S, with an axis of moisture and
instability located in the Great Plains. Scattered severe storms
will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the southern
Plains northward into Upper Midwest. At this extended range, there
is still considerable uncertainty concerning the timing of the
trough. For this reason, will hold off on a threat area until the
models show better agreement.

..Broyles.. 04/06/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 070858
SWOD48
SPC AC 070856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific on
Friday into the western U.S. on Saturday, as southwest mid-level
flow gradually strengthens over the south-central states. In
response, low-level moisture advection will continue over the Great
Plains. Ahead of the western U.S. trough, a subtle shortwave trough
is forecast to move into the southern High Plains Saturday
afternoon. A severe threat will be possible ahead of and near the
trough during the afternoon and evening.

On Sunday, the western U.S. upper-level trough is forecast to move
quickly east-northeastward into the southern Rockies. Ahead of the
trough, a moist and moderately unstable airmass is forecast over
much of the southern and central Plains by afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms appear likely to develop over much of this airmass
during the afternoon and evening. Moderate to strong deep-layer
shear appear likely to be in place, which will be favorable for
severe storms. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a
tornado threat will be possible. An isolated severe threat may also
develop in parts of the north-central U.S.

...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8...
A secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Desert
Southwest on Monday. Ahead of this system, a moist and unstable
airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Although a severe threat
will be possible along much of the instability corridor, the
greatest threat is expected to develop in the southern Plains, where
model forecasts show the most favorable environment.

On Tuesday, model forecasts have some agreement concerning the
timing of the trough, which is forecast to eject northeastward
across the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the trough, there
is large variance among the models concerning the distribution of
instability. If a moderately unstable airmass is in place by Tuesday
afternoon ahead of the ejecting system, a severe threat will be
likely from the southern Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi
Valley. However, the system will probably be slower than forecast,
which adds considerable uncertainty this late in the period.

..Broyles.. 04/07/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 080856
SWOD48
SPC AC 080854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6...
On Saturday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen over the
central U.S., as an upper-level system moves to near the West Coast.
A moist airmass will be in place over the southern and central
Plains, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the region. Large-scale ascent along with warming surface temperatures will
result in scattered thunderstorm development over much of west Texas
Saturday afternoon. MLCAPE is expected to peak near 1000 J/kg in
some areas, with 0-6 km shear being in the 30 to 40 knot range over
much of the southern High Plains. This should be sufficient for a
severe threat, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible.

From Saturday night into Sunday, strong moisture advection is
forecast over the Great Plains. By Sunday afternoon, moderate
instability is expected to be in place over much of this airmass.
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected throughout
much of the moist sector during the afternoon and evening. Some
model forecasts move a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet through central
and northeast Texas during the afternoon and evening. If this
happens, then a substantial severe threat would be possible from
parts of central and north Texas into Oklahoma. Severe storms,
including supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado
threat would be possible in areas that destabilize the most.

On Monday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain from
the southern Plains extending north-northeastward into the Upper
Midwest. Strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible
over much of the instability corridor in the afternoon and evening.
The greatest potential for severe storms is forecast from the
southern Plains north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley
and upper Mississippi Valley, where the models develop moderate
instability and have 0-6 km shear mostly in the 30 to 40 knot range.
Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat will
be possible.

...Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8...
The western U.S. trough is finally forecast to approach the southern
Plains on Tuesday, where a moist and unstable airmass should be in
place. Some solutions suggest that a mid-level jet will move into
the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon. This would create strong
deep-layer shear over parts of the moist sector, suggesting that a
substantial severe threat will be possible. Although there is still
spatial uncertainty regarding this scenario, current model forecasts
would support supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and some
tornadoes.

On Wednesday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
central states, with a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate
instability in place by afternoon from northeast Texas into western
Ozarks. This would be favorable for severe storms. However, at this
extended range, considerable uncertainty exists concerning severe
threat magnitude and spacing.

..Broyles.. 04/08/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 090900
SWOD48
SPC AC 090858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6...
On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much
of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from
the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Much
of this corridor is forecast to become moderately unstable by
afternoon. The greatest potential for severe storms will likely be
in the southern and central Plains, where some solutions have a
subtle shortwave trough. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse
rates will be favorable for supercells with large hail and severe
wind gusts.

Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen across the
central U.S. on Monday. In response moisture advection will continue
in the Great Plains. By Monday afternoon, moderate instability
should be in place from north Texas northward into the upper
Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop across this airmass Monday afternoon and evening.
Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will again be
favorable for severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind
gusts. A tornado threat may also develop.

On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into
the southern Rockies, as an associated mid-level jet streak ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. A moderately unstable
airmass will likely be in place by afternoon from the southern
Plains northeastward into mid to upper Mississippi Valley and
southern Great Lakes. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast over the
southern and central Plains, where a substantial severe threat will
be possible. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes
are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. An upgrade will be
possible across parts of the threat area, once confidence increases
on the timing of the ejecting trough.

...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8...
The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the
central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward
through the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Moderate instability is
forecast to develop ahead of much of the front. Thunderstorms that
form in areas that destabilize sufficiently could have a severe
threat. The severe potential will likely continue into Thursday, as
the front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley.
However, model spread concerning the position of the front and
timing of the trough increases substantially toward mid week,
suggesting a lot of uncertainty exists at this extended range in the
period.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

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