ACUS11 KWNS 230030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230030=20
TXZ000-230200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0831
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Areas affected...portions of Edwards Plateau into south-central
Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 230030Z - 230200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk for damaging/severe wind gusts and large hail for at least another
couple of hours. Watch issuance remains unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms remain ongoing across portions
of Edwards Plateau along/ahead of a dryline. The environment
preceding this convection remains moderately to strongly unstable
with 2000-3000+ J/kg MLCAPE analyzed via the latest objective
analysis. 20-30 kts of effective shear is sufficient to continue
supporting transient supercell structures and multicells/clusters.
Coupled with steep low- and mid-level lapse rates (as sampled by the
00z DRT observed sounding), this will continue to promote a risk for damaging/severe wind gusts and large hail with ongoing convection.

While the onset of low-level nocturnal cooling/stabilization should
begin to temper convective activity/intensity, there is some
potential for one or more convective clusters to persist for another
couple of hours, especially the storms now near Edwards County where
stronger westerly flow aloft is supporting greater effective shear
(35+ kts), which may promote locally greater severe potential.=20

Given the isolated nature of ongoing convection, watch issuance
remains unlikely at this time. Trends will continue to be monitored,
however.

..Chalmers/Thompson.. 05/23/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5dH2Tjf6QvTdvy86gTNvWPEOFMGxlI3eZYBWZd447fSTzbgS3L0vpDBJbdQcpL5rzMiKAAF38= Sc2GbOD-0K9Pxtlznw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 30060137 30650135 31480117 31690102 31860072 31920051
31880027 31779996 31499977 30919964 30549958 30059960
29679976 29469999 29400046 29450096 29670128 30060137=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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