ACUS11 KWNS 222305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222305=20
TXZ000-230030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0829
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Lower Texas Coastline

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 222305Z - 230030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated supercell will pose a risk for large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado. Watch issuance is
unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell has recently developed along a
coastal sea breeze to the south of Corpus Christi. Nearby surface
observations indicate temperatures are in the mid/upper 80s with
dewpoints in the upper 70s F within this maritime air mass, with
warmer and marginally drier surface conditions observed inland of
the sea breeze. Coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates (as sampled
by the 18z CRP observed sounding), this is contributing to 3000-4000
(locally up to 4500) J/kg MLCAPE per latest objective analysis.
Strong westerly flow aloft associated with the subtropical jet is
supporting 40-50 kts of effective shear across South Texas, with
relatively straight hodographs favoring supercells capable of large
hail (perhaps to 2-3+" in diameter) and damaging/severe wind gusts.
A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out, especially should this
cell interact with the backed, southeasterly surface flow within the
moister maritime air mass.=20

It remains uncertain as to how long this cell will persist, but it
appears plausible that it could be maintained for at least another
hour or two. Bunkers right-motion suggests that a gradual motion to
the east-southeast may result in an offshore track; however, there
is potential for this cell to instead propagate southward along the
sea breeze. Watch issuance is unlikely at this time given the
expectation for the severe risk to remain isolated spatially and
temporally, but trends will continue to be monitored.

..Chalmers/Thompson.. 05/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4k80hfh8tLnjFh-Ab6wWcS-K9fNl02C6RtzPDHEtaiM8c689CEaZMuAEbLZ-uHU7LCUG_wxhE= C6Qo0cJLRAhtRRv_Cw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON 26929728 26769727 26679727 26599737 26589758 26669779
26849792 27139791 27369779 27409754 27279733 26929728=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)