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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0814

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, May 21, 2026 19:53:12
    ACUS11 KWNS 211953
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 211952=20
    VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-212145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0814
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0252 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

    Areas affected...Southern Appalachians into parts of southern
    VA/northern NC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 211952Z - 212145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Localized damaging winds are possible through the
    remainder of the afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
    from north GA into southern VA. Convection is generally disorganized
    within a modestly unstable and weakly sheared environment, though
    occasionally robust cells have developed in the vicinity of a cold
    front across southern VA. Relatively strong heating and steepening
    of low-level lapse rates has occurred from the southern Appalachians
    to areas of southern VA/northern NC along/south of the cold front,
    which will result in some potential for localized damaging outflow
    winds in association with the strongest updrafts/downdrafts.
    Increasing storm coverage may result in a southward-acceleration of
    the cold front across southern VA/northern NC through late
    afternoon, which could result in a broader area of strong but
    generally subsevere gusts and localized wind-damage potential.

    ..Dean/Hart.. 05/21/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8BW0_Qn4mNGT3tMpHugoPkwQiRA0x-hbaLtgzfgiacjH8st3_cMh7Bw1tvmq9vDTr63nskOri= Pg6faBUTYzMzMXIKZE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...FFC...

    LAT...LON 34988161 34108276 34048405 34058444 34088462 34398459
    34958292 36728077 37487898 37327730 37177683 36697668
    36177767 35797942 35418018 34988161=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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