ACUS11 KWNS 192141
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192140=20
PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-192245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0793
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0440 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Areas affected...portions of far southeast Pennsylvania into far
northern Virginia...central Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 192140Z - 192245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A damaging gust or two may occur with the stronger
downbursts. The severe threat is very sparse, and a WW issuance is
not expected.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered pulse-cellular storms have matured
atop a well mixed boundary layer, characterized by low to mid 90s F
surface temperatures and 8-9 C/km low-level lapse rates. Vertical
shear, forcing, and mid-level lapse rates are all quite poor. As
such, the well-mixed boundary layer may promote enough evaporative
cooling with the stronger wet downbursts to support a damaging gust
or two. However, the severe threat is very low, with no WW issuance anticipated.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8fkzP2eJTfOjx0EeJkMO4Q-t6CFh1IZee5DEHhI5wOc7D3tYR7T6chFFrqDaLtl1dKIL4VNYS= eLKJwGxpzoBu0ClK_8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 38657827 39607742 40067673 40277597 40097557 39747549
39257579 38837639 38597680 38487721 38427770 38417801
38657827=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)