1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0788

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 19, 2026 18:33:31
    ACUS11 KWNS 191833
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191833=20
    TXZ000-192100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0788
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0133 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

    Areas affected...Parts of southwest into central TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 191833Z - 192100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...An increase in storm coverage and intensity is expected by
    late afternoon, with a threat of large to very large hail and
    localized severe gusts. Watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms recently intensified near and
    northeast of San Angelo, as a cold front intercepted a region of
    locally enhanced low-level moisture that is streaming northward.
    Golf-ball sized hail was recently reported with this cluster.
    Deep-layer shear remains relatively weak, and there will be a
    tendency for storms to be undercut by the front, but strong buoyancy
    (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg) will continue to support a threat of
    isolated hail and localized severe gusts in the short term. Other
    storms may intensify with time to the southwest of the Metroplex.=20

    Farther southwest, the surface boundary will continue to move
    southward across parts of the Edwards Plateau and Permian Basin. The
    colder and more stable airmass is expected to remain well northeast
    of this region, with relatively strong heating and destabilization
    possible immediately behind the boundary in this area by late
    afternoon, with isolated to widely scattered storm development
    expected. While mid/upper-level flow will remain modest, backed flow
    to the north of the boundary will allow for effective shear of 30-40
    kt, sufficient for more organized convection and possible
    supercells. Large to very large hail will be possible with any
    sustained supercells, though localized severe gusts and a brief
    tornado will also be possible.=20

    Watch issuance is possible later this afternoon across the region,
    with timing dependent on the evolution of ongoing storms and trends
    regarding initiation into a larger portion of southwest TX.

    ..Dean/Hart.. 05/19/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!98Rfmjbvhr1AuCmZXGXtCHyjglDcDoU_QSHrixsSj6HTzkTHMCQ9WHgT1n6Ub-_OUo5gMjp96= VDBeLs_Xho56VOw_ik$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 31200211 31280177 31790019 32149872 32389815 32749755
    32319693 31399747 30829800 30169865 29809983 29760098
    29760143 29780196 29700283 30070290 30820267 31200211=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)