ACUS11 KWNS 191454
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191454=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-191700-

Mesoscale Discussion 0785
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0954 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Areas affected...Parts of north TX...southeast OK...AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 191454Z - 191700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some increase in the localized damaging-wind and isolated
hail threat is possible through the morning.

DISCUSSION...Extensive convection is ongoing this morning from north
TX into southeast OK and northern AR, generally along and to the
cool side of a southeastward-moving cold front. Very rich low-level
moisture and strong buoyancy are in place south of the front, with a
mean mixing ratio of 17.6 g/kg observed on the 12Z FWD sounding,
beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. Filtered heating may allow for
gradual intensification of ongoing convection through the morning,
as storms continue to spread southeastward in conjunction with the
front. Additional development is possible within a prefrontal
confluence zone across north TX.=20

While favorable thermodynamics will support potential for robust
updrafts through the day, storm organization will likely be hampered
by generally weak deep-layer flow/shear. A moderate low-level jet
noted in regional VWPs is expected to shift northeastward and weaken
through the day. Modest mid/upper-level flow may weaken further from
northeast TX into AR, along the northern periphery of an MCV
tracking well to the south near the upper TX coast.=20

Given the generally weak flow, damaging-wind potential will be
driven by localized downbursts and any larger-scale cold pools that
can develop and spread southeastward. This potential will be
maximized in areas where the strongest preconvective heating occurs.
Isolated hail also cannot be ruled out, given the favorable
buoyancy. Watch issuance is unlikely through the morning, unless a
notable uptick in storm intensity and organization occurs.

..Dean/Hart.. 05/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_8OTcTzZCfCanhyumWE1BD-5Mfvi7Km2qn2bkQSJ_kIvi-DMRUPvI5lhm9LdfF88tjLGIySx8= oQ5m7bWUcWA7f2H9LA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 31460069 31840138 32300135 32330067 32659984 33129861
34129761 34919617 35169447 35999418 36229290 36289130
35469167 34359298 32799535 31629839 31400028 31460069=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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