ACUS11 KWNS 182007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182007=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-182200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0776
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Areas affected...Western Oklahoma into Northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 182007Z - 182200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Though quite uncertain, storm development along the
dryline is possible late this afternoon. All severe hazards would be
possible if storms can form and mature. Convective trends will be
monitored for a possible watch.

DISCUSSION...Observations from the West Texas Mesonet show 100+ F
temperatures within the eastern Panhandle/South Plains. Cumulus
along the dryline have showed some increase in agitation in
southwest Oklahoma resulting from the strong dryline circulation.
While the 18Z OUN sounding did show a capping inversion, a more
recent TAMDAR sounding from OKC did show very modest cooling/lifting
of that inversion. Those signs of larger-scale lift may be all that
will be observed for the remainder of the afternoon/evening. Model
guidance shows modest mid-level height rises are forecast to occur.
There is low confidence in storms being able to initiate/mature. If
a storm or two can form, the environment would support all hazards.
Convective trends will continue to be monitored.

..Wendt/Hart.. 05/18/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-0mfsffytgarzi-OMTvV9b9thrXH4YVO_rlbek5BLgH0ecZAoOLqCgyf-wWYToSRzSSByMv2B= GQNpgrRYp6X3cRfZ1U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON 33879923 33699954 33749970 33939990 34159976 34759961
35729962 36189988 36379984 36419938 36169888 35219877
34259902 33879923=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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