ACUS03 KWNS 010730
SWODY3
SPC AC 010729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon and into the
evening hours across Iowa southward into the southern Plains. Very
large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible.

...Synopsis...
Medium and long-range guidance continue to show reasonably good
alignment in the progression of an upper wave into the central CONUS
through the day Friday into early Saturday. Ahead of this wave,
robust cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central Plains along a
residual baroclinic zone that should be draped from the Plains
eastward into the OH Valley in the wake of a leading system on
Wed/Thu. Northward advection of seasonally rich low-level moisture
(dewpoints in the low 60s) ahead of the intensifying low and
attendant cold front will establish a fairly broad warm sector from
the Midwest southward into the southern Plains. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will likely develop along and ahead of the cold front
through late afternoon and early evening with a threat for all
convective hazards.

...Iowa/northern Missouri...
The most robust convective environment will likely emerge across
northern MO into southern and central IA by late Friday afternoon.
Here, strong moisture return behind a northward lifting warm front
should support MLCAPE values upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg. Strong
synoptic ascent ahead of the surface low and ejecting upper trough
will erode warm sector inhibition, and closer proximity to the upper
jet will allow for 35-45 knot effective bulk shear values nearly
orthogonal to the approaching cold front. This should favor
initially discrete cells capable of large hail as well as tornadoes
given forecast effective SRH values on the order of 200-300 m2/s2.
With time, strong frontal forcing should promote upscale growth with
an increase in the severe wind threat, though some extended-range
CAM guidance hints a line-preceding supercells within the weakly
capped warm sector (though confidence in this scenario is low).
Regardless, convection traversing the best CAPE/shear parameter
space in the region should yield a higher potential for severe
thunderstorms, warranting the introduction of 30% risk
probabilities.

...Kansas into Oklahoma...
Further south/southwest, rapid upscale growth is anticipated along a southeastward pushing cold front by late afternoon from eastern KS
into northern OK. Storm motions and deep-layer flow more parallel to
the initiating boundary may result in initially slow southeastward
propagation of the convective line, though more substantial
progression of the line is likely by early evening as the nocturnal
jet slowly strengthens. Regardless, a severe wind threat appears
likely with this activity.

...Southwest Oklahoma into Western Texas...
A dryline will likely be draped from western OK southward into
western TX. Although forcing for ascent will be weak with southward
extent, weak capping and ample diurnal heating should support at
least isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon. While
low-level wind shear may be somewhat marginal, forecast soundings
depict elongated hodographs favorable for splitting supercells
capable of producing large to very large hail.

..Moore.. 04/01/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 011137
SWODY3
SPC AC 011136

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT THUNDER LINE ORIENTATION

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon and into the
evening hours across Iowa southward into the southern Plains. Very
large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible.

...Synopsis...
Medium and long-range guidance continue to show reasonably good
alignment in the progression of an upper wave into the central CONUS
through the day Friday into early Saturday. Ahead of this wave,
robust cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central Plains along a
residual baroclinic zone that should be draped from the Plains
eastward into the OH Valley in the wake of a leading system on
Wed/Thu. Northward advection of seasonally rich low-level moisture
(dewpoints in the low 60s) ahead of the intensifying low and
attendant cold front will establish a fairly broad warm sector from
the Midwest southward into the southern Plains. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will likely develop along and ahead of the cold front
through late afternoon and early evening with a threat for all
convective hazards.

...Iowa/northern Missouri...
The most robust convective environment will likely emerge across
northern MO into southern and central IA by late Friday afternoon.
Here, strong moisture return behind a northward lifting warm front
should support MLCAPE values upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg. Strong
synoptic ascent ahead of the surface low and ejecting upper trough
will erode warm sector inhibition, and closer proximity to the upper
jet will allow for 35-45 knot effective bulk shear values nearly
orthogonal to the approaching cold front. This should favor
initially discrete cells capable of large hail as well as tornadoes
given forecast effective SRH values on the order of 200-300 m2/s2.
With time, strong frontal forcing should promote upscale growth with
an increase in the severe wind threat, though some extended-range
CAM guidance hints a line-preceding supercells within the weakly
capped warm sector (though confidence in this scenario is low).
Regardless, convection traversing the best CAPE/shear parameter
space in the region should yield a higher potential for severe
thunderstorms, warranting the introduction of 30% risk
probabilities.

...Kansas into Oklahoma...
Further south/southwest, rapid upscale growth is anticipated along a southeastward pushing cold front by late afternoon from eastern KS
into northern OK. Storm motions and deep-layer flow more parallel to
the initiating boundary may result in initially slow southeastward
propagation of the convective line, though more substantial
progression of the line is likely by early evening as the nocturnal
jet slowly strengthens. Regardless, a severe wind threat appears
likely with this activity.

...Southwest Oklahoma into Western Texas...
A dryline will likely be draped from western OK southward into
western TX. Although forcing for ascent will be weak with southward
extent, weak capping and ample diurnal heating should support at
least isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon. While
low-level wind shear may be somewhat marginal, forecast soundings
depict elongated hodographs favorable for splitting supercells
capable of producing large to very large hail.

..Moore.. 04/01/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 011927
SWODY3
SPC AC 011926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
An extensive squall line may develop across parts of the east
central Great Plains late Friday afternoon, and perhaps become
capable of producing widespread strong to severe wind gusts and a
risk for tornadoes while advancing toward to the middle Mississippi
Valley and southeastern Great Plains through Friday evening.

...Discussion...
While an initial surface cyclone weakens northeast of the Great
Lakes region through the St. Lawrence Valley during the day Friday,
a trailing cold front is forecast to advance into the Northeast
while stalling near/just south of the Great Lakes region into the
middle Mississippi Valley vicinity, ahead of a progressive
large-scale mid/upper trough advancing east of the Rockies. It
appears that the intersection of this front and a Pacific front
advancing east of the southern Rockies may become the focus for a
modest surface cyclone, which guidance generally suggests will
weaken while migrating east-northeast of the central Great Plains
and occluding late Friday through Friday night.

It appears that low-level moisture return ahead of the Pacific cold
front and dryline will contribute to a corridor of moderate
boundary-layer CAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg across parts of
northwest Texas through eastern Kansas and western Missouri by
Friday afternoon, with similar destabilization possible along the
stalled frontal zone near the Missouri/Iowa border, perhaps into
parts of the lower Ohio Valley.

Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent downstream of the large-scale
trough, their appears a considerable signal in latest model output
that the evolution of a fairly extensive east-southeastward
advancing squall line is possible ahead of the Pacific cold front
late Friday afternoon and evening. After an initial period with
potential for severe hail, widespread strong to severe wind gusts
and a few embedded tornadoes associated with developing
meso-vortices will become the primary threats as convection grows
upscale and forward propagates.

It is possible that the surface low/frontal intersection near the
Missouri/Iowa border vicinity could become a potential focus for
higher severe probabilities. However, given initially cool/stable
air to the north of this front, and the weakening nature of the
surface cyclone, this remains unclear. Higher severe weather
probabilities may need to be focused ahead of the Pacific front
across parts of western into central Missouri, central into eastern
Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas in later outlook updates for this
period.

..Kerr.. 04/01/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 020732
SWODY3
SPC AC 020730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms, including a few strong to severe
thunderstorms, are expected across portions of the upper Ohio River
Valley and across the Texas Gulf Coast into the southern Mississippi
River Valley.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level wave (currently noted in water-vapor imagery over the
Pacific Northwest) is forecast to progress from the central Plains
into the Great Lakes region late Friday through early Sunday. As
this occurs, an attendant surface low will migrate northeast,
gradually weakening through Saturday evening. A trailing cold front
will push from the Midwest and southern Plains east/southeastward
into the upper OH Valley and northwestern Gulf. Moisture advection
ahead of the front, coupled with diurnal heating, should support
scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon and early
evening hours. A few strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible
across the upper OH Valley and across the TX Gulf Coast into the
lower MS Valley where deep-layer shear may support organized
convection.

...Upper OH Valley...
Lingering showers and convection will likely be ongoing across the
Midwest/OH Valley by 12 UTC Saturday along the advancing cold front.
This initial activity will likely remain sub-severe through the
morning hours. Some degree of re-intensification and/or pre-frontal
development is expected through early/mid-afternoon as diurnal
heating and moisture advection support increasing buoyancy and
diminish inhibition. 30-40 knot flow through the 1-6 km layer will
likely support loosely organized convection capable of strong to
severe wind gusts, and perhaps sporadic hail. Given the weakening of
the synoptic low and broad-scale ascent, overall coverage of intense
convection may be limited. However, higher risk probabilities may be
warranted if guidance trends towards a greater coverage of robust
convective clusters and/or line segments.

...Lower MS River Valley into the TX Gulf Coast...
Ongoing convection is likely across east TX early Saturday ahead of
the southeastward moving cold front. Some degree of
re-intensification of this activity is anticipated as it migrates
east towards the MS River where richer low-level moisture will
support higher buoyancy (MLCAPE values upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg).
Displacement from the primary upper wave to the north will yield
marginal deep-layer wind shear values (generally around 25 knots),
but this should be sufficient for a few organized storms along the
front through the late afternoon hours with an attendant sporadic
hail/wind risk. Based on latest CAM guidance, the greatest severe
risk will likely emerge across the MS Valley into northern LA,
though some solutions hint that robust convection may develop as far
southwest as the TX Gulf Coast.

..Moore.. 04/02/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 021927
SWODY3
SPC AC 021925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND FROM THE
MID-SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Occasional wind damage will be possible with storms along and in
advance of a cold front across the upper Ohio Valley and from
southeast Texas into the Mid-South.

...Upper OH Valley and vicinity...
A surface cold front will move eastward from the MS Valley into the
OH Valley, to the south of a cyclone progressing into ON/QC and in
advance of an associated midlevel trough. The typical uncertainties
surround lingering clouds/rain on the west edge of the outlook area,
but a gradual increase in low-level moisture and surface heating in
cloud breaks will support weak buoyancy in advance of the cold front
Saturday afternoon/evening. Likewise, an increase in low-midlevel
flow with the approaching midlevel trough will support the potential
for some wind damage with bands of convection along/ahead of the
front. The main threat will be during the afternoon/evening, with a
gradual weakening of convection expected overnight.

...Southeast TX to the Mid-South...
Widespread convection is expected along a cold front late Friday
into early Saturday, and this front will continue southeastward
through the day. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s and
surface heating in cloud breaks ahead of the remnant morning
convection will contribute to moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg) in the warm sector. Wind profiles will be a little more
favorable for sustained storms across the northern part of the MRGL
area, closer to the southern fringe of the stronger midlevel
westerly flow. The forecast pattern best supports isolated wind
damage as the primary concern given the modest vertical shear and
midlevel lapse rates, though the marginal nature of the scenario and
likely influences of morning convection suggest additional
refinements are likely in later updates.

..Thompson.. 04/02/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 030714
SWODY3
SPC AC 030713

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND FAR SOUTHERN
MARYLAND...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Sunday from
eastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia and far southern
Maryland.

...Eastern North Carolina/Far Southeast Virginia/Far Southern
Maryland...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys on Sunday, as a cold front advances southeastward through
the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s F. Weak instability will
develop ahead of the front during the day, with thunderstorms
forming and moving eastward toward the Atlantic Coast. A marginal
severe threat may develop across parts of eastern North Carolina,
far southeast Virginia and far southern Maryland, where deep-layer
shear may be strong enough for multicells with isolated severe
gusts. The threat should be maximized in the mid to late afternoon
when low-level lapse rates will be steepest.

..Broyles.. 04/03/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 031931
SWODY3
SPC AC 031930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the southern Mid Atlantic
Coast vicinity Sunday, accompanied by at least some risk for
damaging wind gusts.

...Discussion...
Latest model output suggests that a broad, deep occluded surface
cyclone may deepen at least a bit further while migrating
east-northeastward across Quebec during this period. Renewed
cyclogenesis appears possible across the Canadian Maritimes by
Sunday evening, with a trailing cold front advancing offshore of the
northern through middle Atlantic coast by early Monday, while
slowing/stalling across parts of northern Florida.

Pre-frontal boundary-layer destabilization, where deep-layer mean
flow and shear appears sufficient to support convective
organization, is forecast to remain weak, due to generally weak
tropospheric lapse rates. It appears that this may become focused
along lee surface troughing across and east of the Carolina
Piedmont, perhaps as far north as a developing low/frontal wave
across south central Virginia into the southern Delmarva Peninsula
by late Sunday afternoon.

Forcing for ascent, downstream of a short wave impulse progressing
through the base of approaching larger-scale mid-level troughing, is
likely to aid convective development, with sheared, 30-50 kt south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer contributing
convective organization with potential to produce damaging wind
gusts. A narrow broken squall line may evolve, with perhaps
embedded supercell structures which could also pose the risk for a
tornado or two while spreading toward coastal areas by early Sunday
evening.

..Kerr.. 04/03/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 040724
SWODY3
SPC AC 040723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday in
south-central Florida and over parts of the Desert Southwest, but no
severe threat is forecast.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level jet streak will
move across the Great Lakes on Monday, as a cold front advances
southward into northern Florida. To the south of the front,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to form within a moist airmass
over the southern and central Florida Peninsula during the
afternoon. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be near or below 20
knots, suggesting the storms will remain below severe limits.
Additional thunderstorms are expected to form in the Desert
Southwest. No severe threat is forecast across the continental U.S.
Monday and Monday night.

..Broyles.. 04/04/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 041904
SWODY3
SPC AC 041902

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday across
the Florida Peninsula and over parts of the Desert Southwest, but no
severe threat is forecast.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will persist across the eastern U.S. on Monday. At
the surface, a cold front draped across northern FL will sag
southward. A seasonally warm/moist airmass ahead of the front will
support weak destabilization. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop during the afternoon across the FL
Peninsula. Weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates will preclude
severe thunderstorm potential. Additional isolated weak
thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southwest as an
upper shortwave trough traverses the region.

..Leitman.. 04/04/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 050718
SWODY3
SPC AC 050716

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across
parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies/Four
Corners area. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move eastward to near the Mid-Atlantic
Seaboard on Tuesday, as a cold front advances southward across the
Florida Peninsula. A moist airmass will reside over parts of
southern and central Florida on Tuesday, with scattered thunderstorm development possible as surface temperatures warm. Additional
thunderstorms will be likely from the Four Corners area eastward
into the southern Rockies in the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave
trough passes through. No severe threat is expected across the
continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.

..Broyles.. 04/05/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 051241
SWODY3
SPC AC 051239

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR TSTM LINE

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across
parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies/Four
Corners area. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move eastward to near the Mid-Atlantic
Seaboard on Tuesday, as a cold front advances southward across the
Florida Peninsula. A moist airmass will reside over parts of
southern and central Florida on Tuesday, with scattered thunderstorm development possible as surface temperatures warm. Additional
thunderstorms will be likely from the Four Corners area eastward
into the southern Rockies in the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave
trough passes through. No severe threat is expected across the
continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.

..Broyles.. 04/05/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 051834
SWODY3
SPC AC 051833

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across
parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies/Four
Corners area. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...

Several upper shortwave troughs will move across the U.S. on
Tuesday. A pair of troughs will migrate across the eastern U.S. and
Florida. Meanwhile a weak shortwave trough will move across the
southern Rockies and Plains while another moves over the northern
Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will encompass much of the
eastern half of the CONUS while a cold front sags south across
central/southern FL. Isolated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the
cold front across the FL Peninsula. A dry/stable airmass across much
of the rest of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm activity, though
a few storms are possible as the shortwave upper trough moves across
the Four Corners and southern Rockies vicinity. Severe storms are
not expected.

..Leitman.. 04/05/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 060729
SWODY3
SPC AC 060728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of
the central Plains Wednesday night.

...Central Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central
U.S. on Wednesday, as low-level moisture advection takes place in
the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a cold front from
will advance southward into the central Plains. By Wednesday
evening, the front is forecast to stall over northern Kansas, with
scattered thunderstorms developing near and to the northern
boundary. NAM forecast soundings in the vicinity of the front late
Wednesday evening have a low-level temperature inversion with MUCAPE
near 1200 J/kg. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast around 8 C/km
with effective shear near 40 knots. This environment should support
a threat for isolated large hail with elevated supercells. The
threat may continue into the overnight period, as a low-level jet
strengthens.

..Broyles.. 04/06/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 061909
SWODY3
SPC AC 061908

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of
the central Plains Wednesday evening.

...Central Plains...

A compact upper trough/low will move from the northern Plains to the
Great Lakes on Wednesday. At the surface, low pressure will shift
from southern Manitoba to near James Bay in Ontario. A trailing cold
front will develop southeast across the Upper Midwest and central
Plains. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited due to
persistent surface high pressure across the East, cutting off
stronger Gulf moisture return. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft
(around -15 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and
weak instability in a corridor along/just ahead of the cold front
across the central Plains.

Isolated thunderstorms are forecast near the front during the
evening. Vertical shear will be somewhat weak through 6 km, but
effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt is evident in forecast
soundings. Furthermore, strong west/northwesterly flow through the
top half of the cloud-bearing layer will result in
lengthened/straight hodographs. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer is
also forecast. This environment marginally supports a few strong to
severe storms capable of producing locally strong gusts, and perhaps
marginally severe hail if updrafts can be sustained.

..Leitman.. 04/06/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 070727
SWODY3
SPC AC 070726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts is expected
to develop on Thursday in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley
westward into the central Plains. Isolated severe storms with hail
may also develop in the southern High Plains.

...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
A mid-levels, a broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place on
Thursday over much of the northern U.S., with westerly flow in the
central states. At the surface, a slow moving front is forecast to
remain over western and northern Kansas extending eastward into
northern Missouri. The front will be a focus for convection during
the afternoon and evening, with scattered thunderstorms becoming
likely. NAM forecast soundings near the front by early evening have
MUCAPE ranging from around 2500 J/kg in north-central Kansas to
around 1200 J/kg in northern Missouri. Effective shear along much of
this east-to-west corridor is forecast to be from 35 to 45 knots,
with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km. This should support a
marginal severe threat. Supercells with isolated large hail and
strong wind gusts will be possible.

...Southern High Plains...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the
Intermountain West on Thursday, as westerly mid-level flow remains
in place over the south-central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass
will be located across the southern Plains. A dryline is forecast to
develop over west Texas by Thursday afternoon. Although large-scale
ascent will remain weak, low-level convergence near the dryline may
be enough for isolated convective initiation. Model forecasts
suggest that an axis of moderate instability will be in place to the
east of the dryline by afternoon, with MLCAPE in the 1200 to 1500
J/kg range. In addition, steep mid-level lapse rates will be in
place. This should support an isolated large hail threat with any
cells that can initiate, in spite of the limited forcing.

..Broyles.. 04/07/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 071852
SWODY3
SPC AC 071852

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO KANSAS AND THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for large hail and strong wind gusts is expected
to develop on Thursday in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley
westward into KS, and southward across the southern High Plains.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper shortwave trough embedded within larger-scale troughing
across the northern U.S. will pivot eastward across the northern
Plains to the Upper Midwest on Thursday. Meanwhile, low-amplitude
upper ridging over the West will meander eastward toward the
Rockies. At the surface, a boundary will be oriented west to east
across northern KS and northern MO while a surface dryline extends south/southwest across western KS into western TX. Neutral height
tendencies across the southern Plains will preclude stronger surface cyclogenesis, but weak lee surface troughing is forecast across the
High Plains.

...Central Plains to Mid-MO Valley...

Boundary layer moisture will remain modest across the warm sector,
with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Nevertheless, steep
midlevel lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 C/km will support MUCAPE to
around 1000-1500 J/kg near the west to east surface front.
Vertically veering wind profiles, with 40-50 kt flow through much of
the cloud bearing layer will support supercell wind profiles with
effective shear greater than 40 kt. Large-scale ascent is forecast
to remain modest, with the main midlevel shortwave passing to the
north of the area. However, convergence along the boundary and
continued warm advection into the evening as a low-level jet
increases should be sufficient for scattered thunderstorm
development. Isolated large hail will be possible with this activity
from late afternoon into the evening.

...Southern High Plains...

A more conditional severe thunderstorm environment will exist
further south along the dryline across western TX toward southwest
KS. Strong heating and mixing along the boundary, and low-level
convergence may be sufficient for a few storms developing by
evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE to around
1000-1500 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, generally less
than 25 kt effective shear magnitudes. Isolated large hail will be
possible with any stronger cells that can develop and be maintained. Additionally, a well mixed boundary-layer and inverted-v sub-cloud
layer thermodynamic profiles suggest locally strong wind gusts also
may be possible.

..Leitman.. 04/07/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 080714
SWODY3
SPC AC 080713

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible
on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains eastward
into the Ozarks.

...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks...
An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the Rockies on Friday,
as mid-level flow remains westerly over the Great Plains. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across far
southern Kansas. Surface heating and low-level convergence along the
front will aid convective initiation during the afternoon. A few
small thunderstorm clusters will be possible from late afternoon
into the evening. Near the front by late afternoon, model forecasts
have MLCAPE peaking in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range, and show 0-6 km
shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. This should be enough for a
marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the
primary threats.

..Broyles.. 04/08/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 081926
SWODY3
SPC AC 081925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND TOWARD THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains
eastward into the Ozarks.

...Discussion...
On Friday, an upper trough will move from the Great Lakes into the
Northeast, with temporary upper ridging over the Plains in advance
of a large upper trough moving across the West. At the surface, high
pressure will exist over the northern Plains to upper MS Valley,
with a cold front roughly from the KS/OK border into central MO, and
extending northeastward toward the Lower Great Lakes. This front
will become nearly stationary during the day over the Plains, and
will return north overnight as warm front across KS/MO.

Beneath the upper ridge, potential will exist for scattered
thunderstorms along the frontal zone at various times of the day.
Early day storms will be possible from eastern KS into MO and
possibly northern OK, as the Thursday night activity persists into
Friday morning with the aid of a southwesterly low-level jet and
outflows. This activity could pose strong gust potential before
weakening midday.

Additional storms will be possible along the east-west front as
heating occurs to the south of it (and any outflows). Though the
large-scale pattern will not favor significant coverage of severe
storms, isolated strong to severe storms may develop as the air mass
becomes uncapped. Slow-moving severe storms producing large hail
appear most likely across the northern TX to OK Panhandles into
southern KS and northwest OK, in closer proximity to the steeper
lapse rates aloft. Overall, shear will be marginal, but a stationary
storm may briefly show supercell characteristics given the veering
winds with height, producing large hail and isolated damaging gusts.

..Jewell.. 04/08/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 090715
SWODY3
SPC AC 090714

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be
possible on Saturday across parts of west Texas and far eastern New
Mexico. A marginal severe threat will also be possible across parts
of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley.

...Southern High Plains...
Mid-level southwesterly flow will gradually strengthen across the
south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough
moves northeastward into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a
moist airmass will be in place over much of southern and central
Plains, with surface dewpoints from the mid 50s to mid 60s F. A
surface trough over far eastern New Mexico will be a focus for
convective development as surface temperatures warm during the day.
Large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough will support
scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening over much
of the southern High Plains. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1200
to 1500 J/kg range over west Texas, where 0-3 km lapse rates should
reach 7.5 and 8 C/km in the late afternoon. This will be favorable
for severe wind gusts. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be
between 30 and 40 knots over much of the southern High Plains
suggesting that supercells with large hail will be possible. Severe
threat coverage may peak in the early to mid evening, especially if
an MCS can organize over parts of west-central Texas.

...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the mid to upper
Mississippi Valley Saturday afternoon, as southwesterly mid-level
flow becomes established over much of the north-central U.S. At the
surface, a trough will deepen during the day across the central High
Plains, with moisture advection continuing over the central Plains
and Missouri Valley. Weak instability is expected to develop over
much of this airmass by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will
remain limited, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in areas
where low-level convergence and surface heating become maximized.
Model forecasts suggest that enough deep-layer shear will be in
place for a marginal severe threat, with hail and isolated severe
gusts possible.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 091934
SWODY3
SPC AC 091933

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms, some producing hail and strong gusts, will
be possible on Saturday across parts of west Texas and eastern New
Mexico. Isolated strong storms cannot be ruled out affecting parts
of central California.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will swing southeastward into central/northern CA late
on Saturday, providing lift and widespread precipitation. To the
east, an upper ridge will be located over the MS Valley during the
day, and this will shift east toward the Appalachians by 12Z Sunday.
In between these features, a broad zone of modest southwest flow
aloft will encompass the Rockies and Plains states.

At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the
eastern states, with gusty south winds helping to bring 50s to 60s F
dewpoints across TX and OK. A lee trough over the High Plains will
be a focus for afternoon storm development, where shear may support
areas of severe storms. Elsewhere, low pressure will also affect
parts of central CA, moving ashore late in the day. This may also
focus a few strong storms.

...Southern Plains...
Low pressure will deepen over the northern and central High Plains,
with gusty south winds bringing 50s F dewpoints as far north as NE
by 00Z. Southeasterly surface winds will also bring moisture
westward across west TX and into eastern NM. Here, strong heating
and a lack of cap will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms
during the afternoon. Shear will not be strong, with only 25-35 kt
southwest winds at 500 mb. Some storms may produce hail, and several
storms or clusters may propagate eastward through the night with
areas of strong to severe gusts possible.

A separate area from northeast CO into KS and western NE may support
a few severe cells producing hail as well, as this area will
experience stronger heating near the deepening surface trough, and
with locally backed surface winds.

...Central CA...
Strong cooling aloft will occur during the afternoon and evening as
the upper low moves toward the area. Weak instability will develop
as lapse rates aloft steepen, though just a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE
is currently forecast. Isolated cells may occur in the central
valley late in the afternoon, and, along a cold front as it
approaches the central coast. Gusty winds and perhaps small hail
will be possible. Severe potential is more uncertain three days out,
but the setup will continue to be monitored in later outlooks.

..Jewell.. 04/09/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 100712
SWODY3
SPC AC 100711

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and
central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday.

...Central/Southern Plains to the Upper Midwest...

An upper trough will slowly pivot east across the western U.S. on
Sunday. Low-amplitude, broad southwesterly flow will persist
downstream of the western trough across much of the rest of the U.S.
A weak upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Upper
Midwest through midday before weakening over the Great Lakes during
the afternoon. At the surface, weak troughing will extend from MN
into NE and southward across western KS/OK/TX. Low 60s F dewpoints
will be in place east of the surface trough from TX into IA/IL/WI.

Quite a bit of uncertainty exists for the Day 3 period and forecast
confidence is fairly low. Precipitation will likely be ongoing
across portions of OK/TX, and possibly northward into KS and the
Upper Midwest as a continuation of Day 2 overnight storms and
persistent warm advection. A weak shortwave impulse over the
southern Plains Sunday morning will quickly shift northeast through
midday. It is unclear how this may impact destabilization later in
the day. In the wake of the morning shortwave, large-scale ascent
will remain nebulous. Furthermore, the upper shortwave trough moving
across the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest may be ill-timed
with peak heating, and may lead to subsidence across the region
during the afternoon in the wake of this feature.

Nevertheless, some severe risk, albeit conditional, will be possible
across portions of the central/southern Plains, likely focused along
the surface trough/dryline from central KS into western OK and
portions of western/north TX. Supercell vertical wind profiles are
evident in forecast soundings, with weak capping noted just above
850 mb. Steep lapse rates above this layer will be supported by cool temperatures aloft, and MLCAPE values could climb to near 2000 J/kg.
Storm coverage is uncertain, but if storms can develop and become
sustained, all severe hazards will be possible.

A conditional supercell environment will also exist across the Upper
Midwest ahead of a surface low, though severe risk will depend on
timing of the aforementioned upper shortwave trough. Given
uncertainty, will introduce low severe probabilities (level 1 of 5)
and trends will be monitored.

..Leitman.. 04/10/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 101932
SWODY3
SPC AC 101931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and
central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
On Sunday, a ridge will become established across the eastern CONUS
with a trough advancing slowly inland across the West. A weak
mid-level shortwave trough will move from the central Plains to the
Great Lakes during the period. Persistent mid-level flow across the
Rockies will continue lee troughing and northward moisture transport
across the Plains.

...Central/Southern Plains...
A large area of precipitation is expected to be ongoing Sunday
morning from central Oklahoma to central Texas. This is expected to
move slowly northeast through the day. Subsidence in the wake of the
morning shortwave trough associated with this activity should allow
for recovery ahead of the dryline from West Texas to central Kansas.
In addition, southwesterly to west-southwesterly flow aloft and a well-established EML should assist in erosion of cloud cover across
this region by late morning. Therefore, by late Sunday afternoon,
moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop ahead of the
dryline.

Forcing across the warm sector remains weak and casts considerable conditionality to the forecast. Guidance shows mostly neutral
heights across the dryline during the day. In addition, the dryline
remains relatively diffuse which would not support the strong
convergent circulations necessary for convective initiation.
However, it is worth noting that much of the guidance has a dryline
orientation oriented somewhat northeast to southwest. Therefore, any
convection which develops within this zone may have a long enough
residence time to mature before moving off of the dryline. Given the expectation for minimal inhibition during the afternoon, this may
favor storm development along particular mesoscale corridors along
the dryline Sunday afternoon/early evening in an otherwise weakly
forced environment. Given moderate to potentially strong instability
and moderate shear, large hail (including the potential for 2+ inch
hail) will likely be the primary hazard with any supercells that
develop.

...Central/South Texas...
12Z guidance is fairly consistent with the depiction of a mid-level
shortwave trough moving across northern Mexico during the day
Sunday. Given the strong instability across northern Mexico and
south Texas, it would seem likely for storms to develop along the
higher terrain of northern Mexico during the afternoon/evening ahead
of this trough. Strong instability downstream could maintain these
storms through the evening with some potential for upscale growth
(such as shown by the RRFS). However, significant inhibition on
forecast soundings and minimal QPF signal from the global guidance,
combined with minimal convection over the higher terrain in Mexico
from the other CAM guidance out through 00Z casts some doubt on this
scenario.

An additional scenario is possible across central Texas. At the
southern end of the morning convection, continued storm development
is possible within a supercell environment. This scenario is less
certain given rising heights aloft and will likely be dictated by
the character of the cold pool from Saturday night/Sunday morning
storms. However, this is a scenario depicted by some guidance (most
notably the ECMWF) which could have a locally higher severe weather
threat across this region on Sunday afternoon.

...Upper Midwest...
A conditional supercell environment will also exist across the Upper
Midwest ahead of a surface low, though severe risk will depend on
timing of the mid-level shortwave trough. Uncertainties regarding
storm coverage remain, but will maintain the Marginal Risk and
trends will be monitored.

..Bentley.. 04/10/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 110726
SWODY3
SPC AC 110725

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Mississippi
Valley and Great Lakes region, and across portions of the southern
Plains on Monday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough from the northern Rockies to southern CA will pivot
east on Monday, overspreading the Four Corners vicinity by early
Tuesday. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate east
across the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a
low over the Mid-MO Valley will shift east along a frontal wave
across MN/WI. Persistent southwesterly deep-layer flow over the
Rockies into the Plains will maintain surface lee troughing across
the Plains. Meanwhile, south/southwesterly low-level flow will
maintain 60s F dewpoints from the southern Plains toward Lake
Michigan.

...Upper Midwest...

Some spread among various medium-range guidance in the
placement/track of the surface low leads to some uncertainty
regarding the northward extent of severe potential on Monday.
Nevertheless, a moist airmass will reside ahead of the low in the
vicinity of a surface warm front. Storm coverage is uncertain,
partly due to possibly capping. However, persistent moderate
southwesterly flow atop the front as the low begins to shift east
should provide focus for thunderstorm development during the
afternoon and evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated
hodographs suggest large hail will be possible both within the warm
sector and with any elevated storms on the cool side of the
boundary. Some guidance suggests storms could consolidate into a bow
or linear segment, which would increase damaging wind potential.
However, this scenario is uncertain. Some severe risk will persist
eastward along the warm front into MI overnight. These elevated
storms will mainly pose a hail risk.

...Central/Southern Plains...

Capping is likely to suppress convection along a dryline extending
across eastern KS into western OK/TX. The exception may be across
portions of western TX into southwest OK where modest height falls
could occur toward evening as the western upper trough beings to
slowly shift east toward the southern Rockies. Mid 60s F dewpoints
and steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong
destabilization. Strong heating along and west of the dryline will
support mixing and an increasing southerly low-level jet by 00z
could be sufficient for isolated storm development. Supercell wind
profiles will support mainly a risk of large hail, though locally
damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible if storms
develop.

..Leitman.. 04/11/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 111930
SWODY3
SPC AC 111929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Mississippi
Valley and Great Lakes region, and across portions of the southern
Plains on Monday.

...Synopsis...
The pattern on D3/Monday will be characterized by continued
mid-level troughing across the western US, shifting east into the
Great Basin. Strong west to southwesterly flow will continue across
the Rockies into the central Plains and Upper Midwest. A surface low
will shift across SD/NE into the Upper Midwest, with attendant
northward lifting warm front and eventual southward moving cold
front. These features will be the focus of thunderstorm activity
late Monday afternoon across MN/IA/WI will additional development
likely into upper MI through the late evening.

Across the southern/central Plains, a surface dryline will extend
from central KS into western OK/southwest TX. Strong daytime heating
will occur along and ahead of the dryline with an increase in the
low-level jet by the late afternoon/evening and potential for
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development.

...Upper Midwest...
Across the Upper Midwest, southerly flow will usher low to mid 60s
dew points northwards into portions of IA/WI/MN as a surface low
shifts eastward. The exact northern extent of this moisture remains
uncertain, however it does appear that thunderstorms will develop
near the low and along or north of the effective warm front across
some portion of IA/MN border, perhaps as far west as southeastern
SD/northern NE. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated hodographs
suggest large to very large hail (some 2-2.5+ inch in diameter) will
be possible both within the warm sector and with any elevated storms
on the cool side of the boundary. Some consideration was given to
introduction a 30% area, primarily concerning the hail risk, across
the IA/MN border. There still remains uncertainty in guidance of the
coverage of storms in the open warm sector. Through time, storms may consolidate with a shift to damaging wind potential. For now, opted
to expand the Marginal and Slight Risks further west into the
Dakotas but maintain 15% probabilities.

...Central/Southern Plains...
A more conditional threat for thunderstorms will be possible across
the dryline in the central/southern Plains. Through the day, the
environment looks to remain largely capped. Beneath this, strong
daytime heating will yield moderate to strong CAPE within a plume of
steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Into the late afternoon/evening,
the low-level jet will increase and this may support development of
isolated thunderstorm activity along and ahead of the dryline.
Should this occur, the environment will favor supercells capable of
large to very large hail, damaging wind, and a couple of tornadoes.

..Thornton.. 04/11/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 120719
SWODY3
SPC AC 120718

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday
and Tuesday night from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...

Southwesterly deep-layer flow will persist from the southern Plains
to the Great Lakes on Tuesday. An upper trough over the western U.S.
will slowly pivot eastward, emerging over the central/southern High
Plains by Sunday morning. Surface low pressure will remain centered
over the central Plains, with troughing extending southwestward into
west TX. A cold front will slowly sag southward across portions of
the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. The surface trough/dryline
and the boundary across the Great Lakes will become a focus for
thunderstorm activity through the forecast period.

...Lower MO Valley to the Great Lakes vicinity...

Convection may be ongoing across portions of the region Tuesday
morning. This activity should spread east, and persistent warm
advection should allow for airmass recovery during the afternoon.
Steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread mid 60s F dewpoints, and
moderate to strong destabilization is forecast. Stronger height
falls are not expected across the region, as the main upper trough
will be focused well to the southwest. However, warm advection atop
a southward-sagging surface boundary should support isolated to
scattered storm development by late afternoon/evening. Supercell
wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, suggesting an
all-hazards risk. Given uncertainty related to potential airmass
contamination from early day convection and cloud cover, and
potential capping concerns, will maintain Slight risk (level 2 of
5). However, a rather volatile thermodynamic and kinematic
environment will exist across portions of the region, and higher
probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks depending on
forecast trends and mesoscale details.

...Southern Plains vicinity...

Large-scale ascent will begin overspreading the region by late afternoon/evening as the western upper trough finally begins to
eject eastward. As this occurs, mixing and convergence along a
surface dryline should support at least isolated storm development
by around 00z. Steep midlevel lapse rates and mid/upper 60s F
dewpoints will support strong destabilization amid supercell wind
profiles. Large to very large hail will be possible in addition to
strong wind gusts and a tornado or two.

..Leitman.. 04/12/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 121932
SWODY3
SPC AC 121930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday
and Tuesday night from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...
The western US trough will eject across the Rockies on Tuesday with strengthening westerly flow overspreading the Plains into the Great
Lakes Region. A surface low will deepen across western KS/NE with a
warm front lifting across the Lower Missouri Valley into the Great
Lakes and sharpening dryline across the southern/central Plains. A
cold front will sag southward across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
vicinity. The surface trough/dryline and the boundary across the
Great Lakes will become a focus for thunderstorm activity through
the forecast period.

...Lower MO Valley to the Great Lakes...
Convective coverage will overlap the start of the period near 12z on
Tuesday across portions of the Midwest/Great Lakes Region. Trends
are for relatively quick clearing across portions of central Iowa
into Illinois. As the warm front lifts northward, strong daytime
heating is expected amid dew points in the low to mid 60s. It is
likely the air mass will recover with potential for moderate to
strong instability by the afternoon. Stronger height falls are not
expected across the region, as the main upper trough
will be focused well to the southwest. However, warm advection atop
a southward-sagging surface boundary should support isolated to
scattered storm development by late afternoon/evening. The primary
risk will be for large to very large hail ( some 2.5"+ in diameter)
and damaging wind.

By late afternoon/evening, 700 mb flow will strengthen (around 50-60
kts) with a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rate nosing into
central Iowa/northern Illinois from the southwest. The 850 mb
low-level jet also increases, with large clockwise curved hodographs
developing with the resulting increase in low-level shear. If
supercells can develop and maintain residency along or south of the
warm front, a corridor of greater tornado risk (a couple of which
may be strong tornadoes) may present itself.

Consideration was given to a 30 percent area (primarily hail
driven). With some uncertainty remaining in morning convection and
coverage of storms in the afternoon/evening, the 15% was maintained
with this outlook until more information can be gleaned from hi-res
guidance.

...Southern Plains...
Ahead of the dryline across the Southern Plains, strong daytime
heating is expected. Large-scale ascent will begin overspreading the
region by late afternoon/evening as the western upper trough finally
begins to eject eastward. As this occurs, mixing and convergence
along a surface dryline should support storm development by around
00z. If little convective development occurs on D2/Monday, a
relatively undisturbed moist/very unstable air mass will be in
place. It is likely that rather robust thunderstorm development will
occur along the dryline, with the primary mode being supercelluar.
Large to very large hail (2 to locally 2.5+ inches in diameter),
damaging wind, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Given
that deep layer shear profiles have more of a parallel component to
the dryline, storm interactions may keep the period of more discrete
supercell thunderstorms short, with a shift to clusters of mix-mode
supercell and multi-cell storms.

..Thornton.. 04/12/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 130717
SWODY3
SPC AC 130716

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail and strong wind
gusts will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward
the Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Southern Plains to Great Lakes...

An upper trough will move from the Plains to the MS Valley vicinity
on Wednesday. As associated corridor of enhanced southwesterly
deep-layer flow will overspread a moist/unstable airmass ahead of a
surface dryline. The southern Plains portion of the dryline will not
move too much on Wednesday. However, the northern extent of this
boundary will intersect a weak surface low moving from the Lower MO
Valley toward Lake Michigan. This portion of the boundary will
advance eastward toward the MS River during the evening/overnight
hours.

Areas of showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across portions of
the region Wednesday morning. As a result, there is uncertainty
regarding how the boundary layer may recover/destabilize during the
afternoon. Nevertheless, at least pockets of moderate
destabilization (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) are expected within a
corridor along and east of the surface boundary. Effective shear
magnitudes greater than 40 kt will be sufficient for organized
convection, with large hail and strong wind gusts being the primary
hazards.

..Leitman.. 04/13/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 131922
SWODY3
SPC AC 131921

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail and strong wind
gusts will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward
the Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level trough will move eastward from the Plains into the
Upper Midwest on Wednesday, with continued enhanced west to
southwesterly flow across the southern Plains into the Great Lakes
Region. The surface dryline will remain in a similar location from
Tuesday, extending across western Oklahoma into southwestern and
western Texas. A surface low will shift eastward across IA into WI,
with a cold front shifting south and east through the period.
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected from the Southern
Plains into the Upper Midwest along the aforementioned boundaries
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Southern Plains to Great Lakes...
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing at the
start of the period at 12z Wednesday across much of the Slight Risk
region. A secondary round of thunderstorm development is likely to
occur near and ahead of the dryline extending from west Texas into
western Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon. It remains somewhat uncertain
how morning convection will evolve and what the resulting effect on
the thermodynamic environment will be. Most guidance suggests that
in the area ahead of the dryline across central OK to the Red River
in northern Texas will develop at least moderate instability
(1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE). Deep layer shear profiles will remain
strong favoring supercells as the primary mode. The main threat will
be for large to very large hail and damaging wind, given linearly
elongated hodographs and weaker low-level shear.

Thunderstorms are also expected to re-develop further north across
the central Plains into the Great Lakes region along the
dryline/cold front intersection. A messy mode with mix of supercells
and multi-cell clusters is likely given the eventual southward
moving cold front. Similarly, the main risks will be for damaging
wind and large hail across these regions.

...Northeast...
Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to develop along and
south of a diffuse frontal boundary across the Great Lakes into
southern NY/northern PA. Modestly unstable profiles, steepening
lapse rates, and strong deep layer shear will allow for some
isolated severe storm risk. Primary risk would be for damaging wind
and small hail, though, a tornado could be possible near the
boundary.

..Thornton.. 04/13/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 140723
SWODY3
SPC AC 140722

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday
across portions of the Ohio Valley.

...Lower Ohio Valley/Midwest vicinity...

An upper shortwave trough will move from the MS Valley to the
Appalachians on Thursday. Moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow
will overspread the MO Bootheel toward Lake Erie ahead of this
feature. At the surface, a corridor of upper 50s to low 60s F
dewpoints will be in place ahead of a surface front. Some ongoing
convection and cloudiness early in the day will limit stronger
destabilization, but at least weak MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg is
forecast. While low-level flow will be weak, around 30-40 kt
west/southwesterly flow between 850-700 mb and 40+ kt effective
shear magnitudes will aid in some storm organization. A mix of
clusters and line segments will bring a risk of locally strong gusts
where stronger heating results in steepened low-level lapse rates.

...Southern Plains vicinity...

A conditionally favorable supercell environment will be in place
across the southern Plains on Thursday ahead of a dryline. A weak
shortwave impulse is forecast to move across the region early in the
day, departing by early afternoon. Height rises/shortwave ridging is
then forecast to build across the area. At this time, thunderstorm
development is not forecast as weak capping in the absence of
large-scale ascent should be maintained. However, trends will be
monitored given the otherwise very favorable thermodynamic and
kinematic environment. Otherwise, isolated elevated convection is
possible late in the period in a warm advection regime across north
TX into southern OK.

..Leitman.. 04/14/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 141916
SWODY3
SPC AC 141915

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday
extending from southeast Missouri across the Ohio Valley and into
parts of New York.

...Synopsis...
A progressive pattern will persist on Thursday, with a leading
shortwave trough moving quickly across OH valley into the Northeast.
This wave will breakdown the ridge along the East Coast, and provide
a focus for scattered strong storms. Low-level warm advection out of
the west/southwest will help destabilize the region with storms most
likely during the afternoon from the Lower Great Lake across much of
upstate NY and northern PA. Instability will be sufficient to
support a few fast-moving cells capable of marginal hail and locally
damaging gusts.

To the southeast, storm coverage is less certain, particularly from
AR/MO into the lower OH Valley. Here, cool temperatures aloft will
linger, aiding instability, though somewhat behind the upper trough
affecting the northeastern states. Showers and storms are most
likely in the morning in association with the main wave, but
conditional severe probabilities will be higher during the afternoon
when instability redevelops. Any storms that form will be capable of
producing hail, from MO into AR, western TN/KY, IL and IN.

..Jewell.. 04/14/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 150729
SWODY3
SPC AC 150728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN KANSAS...MISSOURI...IOWA...AND FAR
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the
southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity
on Friday and Friday night. All severe hazards will be possible.

...Southern Plains to MS Valley...

A robust upper trough will eject eastward from the northern High
Plains and central Rockies to the Upper Midwest and central Plains
on Friday. As this occurs, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will
overspread portions of the central/southern Plains to the Mid/Upper
MS Valley and Great Lakes. Flow at 850-700 mb around 40-60 kt will
be common. At the surface, a cold front will extend from northern MN
to a low over eastern NE Friday morning. Meanwhile, a dryline will
extend southwest from the NE low into central KS, northwest OK and
western TX. A warm front initially arcing across central IA into
south-central IL will lift northward through the period ahead of the eastward-advancing surface low tracking across northern IA/southern
MN into WI. A warm sector characterized by mid/upper 60s F dewpoints
will be in place across the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley by
midday, with a narrow plume of low 60s F dewpoints extending north
into portions of eastern MN and WI. Steep midlevel lapse rates (7-8
C/km) will overspread this moist boundary layer, resulting in
moderate to strong destabilization.

As strong ascent overspreads the aforementioned surface boundaries
by mid afternoon, widespread thunderstorm development is expected.
While initial supercells are possible given a favorable
thermodynamic environment and supercell vertical wind profiles,
linear forcing along the front combined with strong deep-layer
southwesterly flow parallel to the initiating boundary may result in
rapid upscale development into a QLCS, particularly from northeast
KS/northwest MO into IA. A well-organized line of convection will
pose a damaging wind risk along with possible QLCS tornadoes as
convection develops eastward through the afternoon/evening. If any
discrete supercells develop, an all-hazards risk will also accompany
that activity.

Further south across southern KS into OK, supercell development may
be more probable, at least initially. Convection will initially
develop along the dryline prior to the cold front overtaking this
boundary later in the evening. Any supercells that develop and can
maintain discrete characteristics will pose a risk for very large
hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds. With time, the cold
front will overtake the dryline during the evening and move
southeast overnight. Linear convection is expected along the front,
posing a damaging wind and isolated tornado risk during the
nighttime hours.

Capping, weakening large-scale ascent and more modest vertical shear
with southern extent may limit storm potential along the dryline in western/west-central TX.

..Leitman.. 04/15/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 151933
SWODY3
SPC AC 151932

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the
southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity
Friday into Friday night. A few tornadoes, possibly strong, very
large hail, and damaging winds will be possible.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move out of the Rockies and into the Plains on
Friday, with primary midlevel speed max intensifying from the
central Plains into the upper MS Valley. A southern stream system
will also intensify the upper-wind pattern from northern Mexico into
the southern Plains.

At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from MN into KS
Friday morning, progressing roughly to a WI to central MO to
northern OK line by 00Z. Meanwhile, a warm front will push north
into WI, extending southeastward near Chicago.

Of particular note for this setup are model trends, which have
consistently shown the cold front pushing farther east and south
than the previous model runs. This results in a lower confidence
forecast in terms of the precise area of greatest threat and degree
of tornado potential.

Despite these uncertainties, the environment ahead of the cold front
will be quite favorable for supercells, with steep midlevel lapse
rates, ample shear, and strong instability. These factors will
clearly favor very large damaging hail, a risk of tornadoes, and
eventually damaging winds. A broad 40-50 kt low-level jet will
contribute to favorable low-level shear for tornadoes, and a couple
strong tornadoes will be possible prior to the cold front and
aggregate outflows undercutting the initial activity. Favored areas
for tornadoes will be southern KS into western/northern OK in
proximity to the dryline, and farther north into eastern IA and
southern WI where SRH will be stronger near the low.

Even if the cold front surges faster than currently indicated, a
widespread damaging wind threat could occur. Trends will continue to
be monitored as the event nears.

..Jewell.. 04/15/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 160707
SWODY3
SPC AC 160705

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail will be possible on Saturday across part of the Ohio
Valley.

...Ohio Valley...

A large-scale upper trough oriented over the Upper Midwest and
Plains will shift east over the Great Lakes, Midwest and TN Valley
on Saturday/Saturday night. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow
will overspread the Ohio Valley ahead of an eastward-advancing cold
front. This front should be located from Lower MI into southeast MO
Saturday morning, moving across the Ohio Valley through early
evening. Modest boundary-layer moisture will be in place ahead of
the front. Daytime heating into the 70s and modestly steep midlevel
lapse rates will support weak destabilization (generally less than
1000 J/kg MLCAPE). While instability will be modest, strong low and
midlevel flow will support organized cells and/or line segments
capable of strong gusts. Any discrete cellular activity also may
produce marginally severe hail. These severe risk should gradually
wane during the evening with eastward extent.

...TX to the Lower MS Valley...

Thunderstorms are expected along a southeast-advancing cold front
Saturday afternoon and evening. Deep-layer flow will be oriented
parallel to the front, and convection may largely be anafrontal or
quickly undercut by the front. While weak MUCAPE is noted in
forecast soundings, severe potential is not expected at this time.

..Leitman.. 04/16/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 161927
SWODY3
SPC AC 161926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail will be possible on Saturday from the upper Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move toward the upper Great Lakes and OH Valley
on Saturday, with a cold front moving quickly east and extending
from western NY/PA into KY/TN by 00Z. A narrow plume of upper 50s F
to near 60 F dewpoints will exist and contribute to up to 1000 J/kg
MUCAPE.

Storms will likely be ongoing early in the day along the front as it
moves out of IN and into western OH/KY, and 40-50 kt southwest winds
at 850 mb may support damaging gusts potential. Heating ahead of the
front from OH/PA southward into WV/KY/TN may support new
development, although lapse rates aloft over southern areas will be
poor. Still, favorable deep-layer mean wind speeds and sufficient
shear may support isolated severe gusts or marginal hail, especially
into OH/western PA. Further, low-level shear will be strongest over
northern areas, with some supercell potential.

..Jewell.. 04/16/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 170655
SWODY3
SPC AC 170653

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level trough will move from the Great Lakes to
southeast Canada during the day on Sunday. A cold front is forecast
to initially exist from southeast Virginia to the Florida Panhandle.
The cold front will move into the Atlantic and Gulf as surface high
pressure builds in its wake.

Some lingering moisture and weak instability will likely be present
ahead of the front Sunday morning. By late morning, heating may be
sufficient for some storms along and ahead of the front. However,
given the weak instability, no severe weather is expected. This
front will continue southeast into the Atlantic/Gulf by late
afternoon and bring an end to any storm threat across the CONUS
(except for the Florida Peninsula).

..Bentley.. 04/17/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 171926
SWODY3
SPC AC 171925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Discussion...
An amplified large-scale trough will move eastward from the Great
Lakes to the Northeast on Sunday, while a related cold front moves
off the Eastern Seaboard. Despite poor deep-layer lapse rates, a
narrow corridor of diurnal heating amid lower/middle 60s dewpoints
(higher over the FL Peninsula) ahead of the front should support
isolated thunderstorms from the coastal Carolinas southward across
parts of the FL Peninsula. Weak/narrow buoyancy profiles will limit thunderstorm intensity and the severe risk.

..Weinman.. 04/17/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 180709
SWODY3
SPC AC 180708

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Monday.

...Discussion...
High pressure and a dry airmass will limit thunderstorm potential
across most of the CONUS on Monday. The only exceptions will be
across South Florida and parts of the Southwest into West Texas.
Across South Florida, mid 60s dewpoints are forecast to persist on
Monday which may allow for sufficient instability for scattered
storm development. Weak instability should limit any severe weather
threat with this activity.

Additional isolated storms are possible across parts of the
Southwest into portions of West Texas as moisture return may lead to
some weak instability. No severe storms are expected from this
activity.

..Bentley.. 04/18/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 181916
SWODY3
SPC AC 181915

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Monday.

...Discussion...
A midlevel trough will move from the Northeast off the New England
coast on Monday, while the tail end of a related cold front
continues southward into the Caribbean Sea. North of the front in
southern FL, diurnal heating amid a moist post-frontal air mass
should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, though
weak buoyancy and limited large-scale forcing for ascent should
limit the severe risk.

Farther west, weak low-level warm advection and modest moisture
return ahead of a low-amplitude midlevel impulse moving into south
TX will support a couple rounds of isolated/elevated thunderstorms
across southwest TX. Isolated thunderstorm potential could spread
further north into central TX late in the period, though confidence
in this scenario is currently low. Additional diurnal thunderstorms
are possible across the Southwest as the midlevel moisture impinges
on the region, with most of this activity expected over the higher
terrain.

..Weinman.. 04/18/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 190728
SWODY3
SPC AC 190727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across the western CONUS, the
south-central CONUS, and the southern Great Lakes. No severe weather
is anticipated.

... Synopsis ...

A large-scale midlevel trough will move push inland across the
western CONUS into the Great Basin on Wednesday, with downstream
ridging building across the central CONUS in response. Across the
Northeast, northwest flow aloft will prevail downstream of the
central CONUS ridge. An embedded jet streak and associated vorticity
maximum within the northwest flow will aid driving a weak surface
low and attendant frontal boundary southeast across the Great Lakes
through the forecast period. Meanwhile, the surface ridge across the
Southeast will move east, just offshore of the Southeast Atlantic
Coast, promoting return flow across the Plains. The return flow will
be aided by the development of lee troughing across much of the High
Plains.

... Western US ...

Scattered showers are expected across portions of the West in
association with the inland-moving large-scale trough. Seasonably
cool midlevel temperatures will support enough instability for a few thunderstorms, although severe potential is very low.

... South-central US ...

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the region within
the return flow regime. Here, weak warm-air advection combined with
between 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE will support convective development.
Weak vertical shear and the lack of strong forcing for ascent should
limit any severe potential.

... Southern Great Lakes ...

Scattered showers a few thunderstorms will be possible within the
surface frontal zone as it pushes south/southeast during the day.
Instability around 500 J/kg MUCAPE and weak effective layer shear
should preclude a more robust severe weather event, but a strong
wind gust or two may be possible.

..Marsh.. 04/19/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 191937
SWODY3
SPC AC 191936

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across the western CONUS, the
south-central CONUS, and the southern Great Lakes on Tuesday.
Potential for severe weather appears low.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will be the primary feature across much of the CONUS
from the eastern Great Basin into Plains on Tuesday. Moderate
northwesterly flow aloft will remain across the Upper Midwest and
portions of the Ohio Valley in the wake of a stronger upper trough.
Along the West Coast, an upper trough is expected to slowly move
ashore in central California into the western Great Basin. At the
surface, continued presence of high pressure in the Southeast and
off the Atlantic coast will drive moisture return into a
stalled/remnant cold front in central Plains and Lower Great Lakes
vicinity.

...Lower Great Lakes...
Modest moisture return ahead of the boundary is expected to promote
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. This may not occur until
early/mid evening, however. Temperatures will be quite cold aloft
(perhaps near -20 C at 500 mb), but moisture could be quite limited (potentially in the 40s F). The NAM is again the most aggressive
with moisture return as compared to other guidance. Should
sufficient moisture return occur, shear will be sufficient for
marginally organized convection capable of strong gusts and hail.
Uncertainty is high given how dry the airmass is preceding this
moisture return and convection near the Gulf Coast on preceding days
will potentially slow northward progress.

...Central Valley California...
Ahead of the upper low, southeasterly winds may develop within the
Valley. While destabilization will not be overly strong, pockets of
heating could lead to modest MLCAPE values by the afternoon. Shear
will be a limiting factor for overall severe potential, but a
stronger storm or two is possible.

...Central Texas...
Convection will be ongoing early Tuesday morning. Modest deep-layer
shear and elevated buoyancy could promote a couple stronger storms
capable of small hail. However, storms should generally become less
organized with time as upper-level ridging builds in through the
day.

..Wendt.. 04/19/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 200728
SWODY3
SPC AC 200727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds may develop
during the late afternoon and evening across portions of the High
Plains. Elsewhere, thunderstorms will be possible across the
northern Gulf Coast and portions of the Ohio Valley.

... Synopsis ...

A shortwave trough will eject northeast out of the basal region of
the western CONUS trough and into the northern Plains on Wednesday.
As this happens, strengthening southerly/southwesterly midlevel flow
will overspread much of the High Plains. A surface cyclone over
eastern Montana will gradually deepen as it slowly moves east.

... Central High Plains south into the southern High Plains ...

As the Montana surface cyclone gradually deepens on Wednesday, Gulf
moisture will be drawn northward into the central and northern
Plains. As the upper trough approaches the region during the late afternoon/evening, modest height falls are expected to overspread a
sharpening dryline across far eastern Colorado or western Nebraska
south into the Texas Panhandle. Kinematic profiles up and down the
dryline show ample vertical shear for supercells capable of
producing hail and gusty winds. However, considerable uncertainty
remains regarding thunderstorm coverage owing to the significant
differences in the depth and quality of the boundary layer moisture
return noted in the 20260420/00Z guidance suite. For example, the
NAM is nearly 5F more moist along the dryline across portions of
Nebraska than global models.

That said, pattern recognition and 00Z RRFS suggest that at least a
couple of storms should develop along the dryline from Nebraska
south into the eastern Texas Panhandle. Deep-layer flow will largely
parallel the dryline during the afternoon which should preclude much
eastward advancement. A 5% unconditional risk area has been added to
account for this potential.

... Elsewhere Across the CONUS ...

Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period and
persist into the early afternoon across portions of the northern
Gulf Coast. The thunderstorm potential should wane with time as
increasing midlevel heights suppress large-scale ascent.

Additionally, modest low-level moisture and weak instability may
support a few lightning strikes within a weak surface boundary
across the Ohio Valley.

..Marsh.. 04/20/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 201931
SWODY3
SPC AC 201930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds may develop
during the late afternoon and evening across portions of the High
Plains.

...Synopsis...
A broad trough will begin to move into the Rockies and adjacent High
Plains. A shortwave trough will eject into the northern Plains in
association with the broader trough. At the surface, a deep surface
low will develop in eastern Montana with a lee trough/dryline
extending into the southern High Plains.

...High Plains...
As the upper-trough approaches the Rockies, the lee trough and
dryline are expected to sharpen. Forcing for ascent will be
strongest in the Nebraska Panhandle/western South Dakota vicinity.
This area is also has the largest variability in terms of moisture
return (the NAM being much more bullish than the ECMWF). Farther
south, moisture will generally be greater. Guidance is in agreement
that 60s F dewpoints are probable in the Texas South Plains and
perhaps parts of the Panhandle. The issue farther south will be the
lack of synoptic ascent. Temperatures behind the dryline will be in
the upper 80s F to perhaps low 90s F. The depth of the circulation
may be enough to initiate an isolated storm or two, but confidence
is still not overly high. Environmentally, deep-layer shear will be
oriented roughly perpendicular to the dryline, especially from
western Kansas southward. Supercells would be favored if storms
develop. MLCAPE of 1000 J/kg in South Dakota to 1500-2500 J/kg
farther south is expected by the afternoon. Large hail and severe
wind gusts would be possible.

...Central/Easter Montana...
With the surface low deepening through the day, at least modest
moisture return northwestward is anticipated into central/eastern
Montana. However, moisture will still be quite scant across the
region. Dewpoints may not reach the 40s F. Given the forcing for
ascent, high-based convection is possible. The very dry sub-cloud
layers could lead to gusty outflow winds. At present, confidence in
severe gusts is too low to warrant wind probabilities.

..Wendt.. 04/20/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 210731
SWODY3
SPC AC 210730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from northern Oklahoma into
southern Minnesota on Thursday. Large hail to very large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible.

... Synopsis ...

A complex convective setup is expected on Thursday as a broad,
long-wave trough remains anchored across the Western US. While the initial/primary shortwave will be lifting northward into Canada, a
secondary, lower amplitude wave is progged to approach the Southern
Plains overnight Thursday into Friday.

At the surface, a Pacific cold front and dryline will push eastward
into the Central Plains. A secondary surface low is forecast to
develop near the triple point in northwest Oklahoma/southwest
Kansas. This feature will serve as the southern extent of the more
organized severe threat, with a conditional threat southward along
the dryline.

... Central Plains ...

Thunderstorms are expected to develop an advancing cold
front/dryline across portions eastern Nebraska into western Iowa,
before expanding both north and south from here. MUCAPE values
between 1500-2500 J/kg and deep-layer shear on the order of 30-40
knots will support supercellular structures initially. However,
unidirectional profiles will support splitting supercells and favor
an upscale growth into one or more linear segments. While a few
tornadoes may be possible early in the convective evolution, large
hail and damaging winds may become the dominant threat with time.

... Southern Plains ...

Convective initiation along the dryline south of the triple point
remains uncertain due to stronger capping. However, any discrete
cells that manage to initiate will do so in an environment
characterized by MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg with 30-40
knots of vertical shear. This will be more than sufficient to
support supercells capable of very large hail.

A secondary wave should approach the region overnight Thursday into
Friday morning. Forecast soundings indicate a steepening of midlevel
lapse rates associated with this feature and a subsequent increase
in CAPE values. Depending on the evolution of thunderstorms during
the afternoon and evening, additional thunderstorms may develop
overnight. The severe potential of these storms is uncertain given
the overnight timing of the wave and increasing convective
inhibition. However, strong vertical shear would seem to support an
ongoing hail and wind threat.

... Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley ...

As the cold front pushes into the more modest moisture and buoyancy
profiles across northern Minnesota, the severe threat should be
lesser than areas to the south. Still, proximity to the upper wave
should support at least some threat for wind with any thunderstorms
that develop.

..Marsh.. 04/21/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 210739
SWODY3
SPC AC 210738

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

CORRECTED FOR TEXTUAL CLARITY

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from northern Oklahoma into
southern Minnesota on Thursday. Large hail to very large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible.

... Synopsis ...

A complex convective setup is expected on Thursday as a broad,
long-wave trough remains anchored across the Western US. While the initial/primary shortwave will be lifting northward into Canada, a
secondary, lower amplitude wave is progged to approach the Southern
Plains overnight Thursday into Friday.

At the surface, a Pacific cold front and dryline will push eastward
into the Central Plains. A secondary surface low is forecast to
develop near the triple point in northwest Oklahoma/southwest
Kansas. This feature will serve as the southern extent of the more
organized severe threat, with a conditional threat southward along
the dryline.

... Central Plains ...

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along an advancing cold
front/dryline across portions eastern Nebraska into western Iowa,
before expanding both north and south. MUCAPE values between
1500-2500 J/kg and deep-layer shear on the order of 30-40 knots will
support supercellular structures initially, but unidirectional
profiles may favor splitting supercells, storm interference, and a
tendency for upscale growth into one or more linear segments. While
a few tornadoes may be possible early in the convective evolution,
large hail and damaging winds should become the dominant threat with
time.

... Southern Plains ...

Convective initiation along the dryline south of the triple point
remains uncertain due to stronger capping. However, any discrete
cells that manage to initiate will do so in an environment
characterized by MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg with 30-40
knots of vertical shear. This will be more than sufficient to
support supercells capable of very large hail.

A secondary wave should approach the region overnight Thursday into
Friday morning. Forecast soundings indicate a steepening of midlevel
lapse rates associated with this feature and a subsequent increase
in CAPE values. Depending on the evolution of thunderstorms during
the afternoon and evening, additional thunderstorms may develop
overnight. The severe potential of these storms is uncertain given
the overnight timing of the wave and increasing convective
inhibition. However, strong vertical shear would seem to support a
hail and wind threat.

... Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley ...

As the cold front pushes into the more modest moisture and buoyancy
profiles across northern Minnesota, the severe threat should be
lesser than areas to the south. Still, proximity to the upper wave
should support at least some threat for wind with any thunderstorms
that develop.

..Marsh.. 04/21/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 211938
SWODY3
SPC AC 211937

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
MID-MISSOURI VALLEY VICINITY INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from northern Oklahoma into
southern Minnesota on Thursday. Large hail to very large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible.

...Synopsis...
Two shortwave troughs within a larger-scale trough over much of the
Rockies will pivot northeast on Thursday. The initial shortwave will
impact parts of the central Plains and mid-Missouri Valley. A
second, compact shortwave will pivot into parts of Oklahoma and
Kansas. At the surface, moisture return will continue ahead of a
Pacific cold front in the central Plains. A weak surface low is
expected to develop along the Oklahoma/Kansas border and track
eastward. Attendant to this low, a dryline will drape southward into
the Permian Basin.

...Central and southern Kansas...Oklahoma...
With mid-level ascent arriving mid/late afternoon, storms are likely
to initiate along the cold front as well as near the triple point
associated with the weak surface low along the KS/OK border.
Supercells are most likely near the triple point and could persist
so long as storm interactions remain minimal. 40-45 kts of shear and
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE will promote storms capable of all hazards,
including tornadoes and very-large hail. A strong low-level jet will
develop ahead of this activity during the evening. The tornado
threat could increase for storms that can remain discrete.

In Oklahoma, if and how many storms develop remains uncertain along
the dryline. Northern portions of Oklahoma are more likely to have
severe storms given the proximity to the surface low. A similar
environment will exist east of the dryline as does farther north
into southern Kansas. There is a conditional threat for all severe
hazards.

...Mid-Missouri Valley...
Storms are expected to develop along the cold front potentially as
early as mid afternoon. However, capping appears strong enough in
forecast soundings that initiation could delay until late afternoon.
Steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place along and ahead of the
front. Deep-layer shear will be 30-40 kts, but generally parallel to
the front. Initial storms could be supercellular and produce large
to very-large hail early in the convective cycle. Upscale growth
appears likely to occur rather quickly. Damaging/severe winds would
become the primary risk at that point. Tornadoes are also possible
given the low-level shear, both with initial supercells and perhaps
with QLCS circulations.

..Wendt.. 04/21/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 220722
SWODY3
SPC AC 220721

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the
Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats.

... Synopsis ...

A persistent longwave trough will remain situated across the
northern US on Friday, maintaining a broad regime of cyclonic
midlevel flow over the western two-thirds of the country. Within
this broad flow, neutral to modest midlevel height rises are likely
across the Southern Plains. This evolution suggests a lack of robust large-scale forcing for ascent, with subtle subsidence potentially
acting as a limiting factor for widespread convective coverage.

... Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley ...


At the start of the forecast period, convective activity may be
ongoing across portions of northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas,
southern Missouri, or northern Arkansas along a consolidated outflow boundary/cold front. These storms should slowly weaken during the
morning with the loss of large-scale ascent and a weakening
low-level jet. The outflow boundary/cold front should slowly sag
south through the morning before stalling somewhere in the vicinity
of the I40 corridor. This feature will serve as the primary focus
for subsequent development later in the afternoon, with residual
outflow or differential heating boundaries being a secondary source
of initiation.

South of the frontal boundary, a highly unstable airmass will remain
in place across the warm sector. Strong diabatic heating of a moist
boundary layer will yield pockets of moderate-to-strong instability,
with MUCAPE values potentially in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. While
deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively modest (30-35
knots), the degree of instability will be sufficient to support
robust updrafts.

Given the modest shear and lack of stronger synoptic support, storm
modes will likely be multicell clusters or transient supercells. Any
persistent cell will be capable of producing large hail and
localized damaging wind gusts

... Lower Mississippi Valley ...

Convection that develops across Oklahoma and Arkansas during the
afternoon is expected to persist into the evening as it moves slowly east-southeast toward Mississippi and Tennessee. Although
instability is not as great with eastward extent, it should remain
sufficient enough to support some potential for sporadic wind and
hail through the overnight hours.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 221931
SWODY3
SPC AC 221930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the
Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats.

...Southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley...
Storms may be ongoing at the start of the period Friday morning from
parts of OK into AR/MO, and possibly into the lower OH Valley. While
a general weakening trend is expected during the morning, the
strongest early-day storms could pose a threat of isolated hail and
localized strong/damaging gusts.

The primary severe threat is expected to develop from the afternoon
into the evening, along the primary outflow/cold front and any other
residual boundaries left over from the morning convection. The
strongest heating/destabilization is expected from parts of TX into
southeast OK, where MLCAPE of 2000-3000 may develop, with moderate
instability expected as far east as the lower MS/OH Valleys.

At this time, the greatest diurnal storm coverage is expected from
eastern OK/northeast TX into AR, where a weak midlevel shortwave
trough and potential MCV may overlap moderate to strong buoyancy.
Effective shear will be relatively modest (generally 30-35 kt), but
sufficient to support some storm organization. Initial diurnal
development in this region could pose a threat for hail and locally
damaging wind. Low-level flow/shear will generally remain weak, but storm/boundary interactions could also support a low tornado threat.
With time, consolidating outflows could support modest upscale
growth and a potential increase in damaging-wind potential into the
early evening as storms spread east-southeastward.

Storm coverage may remain quite isolated across western portions of
the Level 2/Slight Risk area, due to weak large-scale ascent, but
isolated development will be possible as CINH weakens. The strongly
unstable and sufficiently sheared environment will conditionally
favor a severe threat across parts of southern OK and north TX, if
storms can be sustained.

..Dean.. 04/22/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 230728
SWODY3
SPC AC 230727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will likely develop across portions of Oklahoma
and Kansas during the evening. These storms will pose a risk of very
large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes. Isolated
severe thunderstorms may also develop across portions of North Texas
during the afternoon.

... Synopsis ...

Increasingly diffluent southwest flow will overspread the Southern
and Central Plains on Saturday as the midlevel pattern responds to a
strong shortwave trough/vorticity maximum moving into the Southwest.
This will induce strong southerly winds across the Plains, helping
to quickly draw an old frontal boundary northward. This boundary
should be oriented from northwest to southeast across portions of
Oklahoma by late Saturday.

... Portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and western Arkansas ...

Most of the day should be devoid of thunderstorms as mid-level
heights rise downstream of a digging trough across the Southwest. At
the same time, strong southerly winds will transport Gulf moisture
northward from the far Southern Plains into the Central Plains.
Diurnal heating of this airmass will result in the development of
strong instability across much of the area, as maximum SBCAPE values
approach 4000 J/kg across portions of north Texas into central
Oklahoma.

During the late evening a subtle perturbation within the southwest
flow is forecast to approach Oklahoma. In response to this, the
low-level jet is forecast to increase to between 30 and 40 knots. As
it crosses the northward moving warm front, this warm-air
advection/isentropic ascent will combine with modest large-scale
ascent from the approaching midlevel perturbation to support
scattered thunderstorm develop on the north side of the moisture
gradient. Although differences exist between the various models, the
generic depiction of forecast soundings show long hodographs with
varying degrees of low-level curvature in the presence of 2000-3000
J/kg of MUCAPE. Thus, any storm that develops within the environment
will be capable of producing all hazards initially. With time,
thunderstorms should grow upscale into one or more southeast moving
bowing segments capable of producing damaging winds with perhaps a
QLCS tornado threat.

... North Texas into Southern Oklahoma ...

Diurnal heating of a moist airmass to the east of a dryline will
result in an extremely unstable airmass developing by the afternoon.
Although the region will be devoid of large-scale forcing for
ascent, temperatures in the 90Fs to the west of the dryline may be
sufficient to induce dryline circulations capable of initiating
isolated thunderstorms. Any thunderstorm that develops will be
capable of producing very large hail.

..Marsh.. 04/23/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 231931
SWODY3
SPC AC 231930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will likely develop across portions of Oklahoma
and Kansas during the late afternoon and evening. These storms will
pose a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of
tornadoes. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also develop across
portions of Texas.

...Synopsis...
Increasingly diffluent southwest flow will overspread parts of the
southern and central Plains on Saturday, as the midlevel pattern
responds to a strong shortwave trough/vorticity maximum moving into
the Southwest. This will induce strong southerly winds across the
Plains, helping to draw an outflow-influenced frontal boundary
northward. This boundary is currently forecast to be oriented from
northwest to southeast across portions of Oklahoma by late Saturday.

...Parts of KS/OK/TX into the ArkLaTex and Lower MS Valley...
No changes have been made to the Enhanced Risk. Rich moisture, steep
midlevel lapse rates, and diurnal heating will result in strong
destabilization across parts of the southern Plains, with at least
moderate destabilization into parts of KS. Large-scale ascent will
be subtle at best during the day, but isolated storm development
will be possible by late afternoon in the vicinity of the diffuse
warm front extending from eastern OK into southern KS and vicinity.
Favorable deep-layer shear combined with the moderate to strong
buoyancy will favor initial supercell development, with a threat of
very large hail and potentially a couple tornadoes (especially near
the remnant boundary).

Some upscale growth will be possible into the evening, with
potential for an organized cluster or MCS to move southeastward
along the instability gradient towards parts of the ArkLaTex, and
potentially the lower MS Valley, before weakening. This evolution
could be accompanied by an increasing damaging-wind threat, along
with isolated hail and/or tornado potential with any embedded
supercells.

Farther south, a conditionally favorable environment will be in
place during the afternoon along/east of the effective dryline, from
southwest OK into TX. Despite the lack of notable large-scale
ascent, isolated storms may develop due to weakening CINH and
heating to convective temperatures. Any storms that can mature
within this environment could evolve into supercells with large to
very large hail potential. The Marginal Risk has been expanded
southwestward across TX, where some global and extended CAM guidance
shows a signal for sustained development during the late afternoon.

..Dean.. 04/23/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 240731
SWODY3
SPC AC 240730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce large hail
and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible by early Sunday
evening across parts of the central and southern Great Plains,
before one or two organizing clusters of storms spread toward the
middle/lower Missouri Valley with potentially damaging wind gusts.

...Discussion...
A remnant elongated cyclonic mid-level circulation/shear axis may
tend to shift north-northeastward through Saskatchewan/Manitoba
through this period, while larger-scale troughing along an axis
inland of the U.S. Pacific coast through the Hudson Bay vicinity
weakens through this period. However, mid/upper ridging across southern/central Mexico into portions of the southern Great Plains
and lower Mississippi Valley appears likely to maintain considerable
strength, while a notable short wave perturbation accelerates out of
the southern Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley, within strong
southwesterly flow between the two features.

Models suggest that stronger mid-level height falls will generally
overspread the eastern Colorado/western Kansas/southwest Nebraska
vicinity of the high plains late Sunday afternoon into evening,
before reaching southern portions of the middle Missouri Valley by
12Z Monday, accompanied by a developing low within the northern
portion of deepening surface troughing extending southward into the
southern Great Plains. Another low, developing by Sunday afternoon
across the southeastern Colorado/Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle region
may reach portions of central Kansas.

In response to these developments, seasonably moist low-level air,
initially confined to the southern Great Plains, perhaps as far
north as central Oklahoma at the outset of the period, may tend to
advect in a corridor ahead of a sharpening dryline across western
Oklahoma into western Kansas by late afternoon. Downstream, models
suggest that a warm frontal zone may become better defined by early
Sunday evening across southern Kansas into the Ozark Plateau
vicinity, before tending to shift northward.

...Great Plains...
Although though there is not a strong signal yet evident within
latest model output concerning potential convective evolution during
this period, at least isolated to perhaps widely scattered supercell development may initiate along the dryline as far south as northwest
Texas by late Sunday afternoon, in the presence of destabilization
and strengthening shear. By early Sunday evening, this probably
will include enlarging, clockwise curved low-level hodographs
beneath a strengthening southerly low-level jet. This may become
supportive of increasing potential for a couple of strong tornadoes,
in addition to large hail, with increasing storm coverage probable
across the western Kansas vicinity.

Gradually, large-scale forcing for ascent, focusing along the warm
front, may support one or two upscale growing clusters of storms
spreading into the middle/lower Missouri Valley overnight, with
damaging wind gusts becoming the more prominent severe hazard along
with perhaps some continuing risk for tornadoes.

..Kerr.. 04/24/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 241931
SWODY3
SPC AC 241930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
KANSAS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce large hail
and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible by early Sunday
evening across parts of the central and southern Great Plains,
before one or two organizing clusters of storms spread toward the
middle/lower Missouri Valley with potentially damaging wind gusts.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave and attendant jet maximum are forecast
to emerge from the large-scale trough across the West, and begin to
impinge upon a moist and potentially very unstable airmass across
parts of the Great Plains on Sunday. A surface low is expected to
consolidate and deepen across the south-central High Plains during
the day, and then move toward the lower MO Valley by Monday morning.
A surface front (whose initial position will be influenced by
extensive Friday/Saturday convection) will move northward as a warm
front across parts of the central Plains and Ozarks. A Pacific
Front/dryline will extend southward from the surface low through
late afternoon, with the northern portion of this boundary expected
to push eastward across parts of KS/OK Sunday night.

...Great Plains...
A volatile environment is still expected to develop across parts of
KS/OK/TX Sunday afternoon and evening, with moderate to strong
buoyancy and increasing low-level and deep-layer shear. However, the
signal for diurnal warm-sector development remains rather muted in
most guidance, with the strongest large-scale ascent and midlevel
height falls expected to be displaced north of the stronger
instability.

Storm coverage through early evening may be maximized across parts
of the central High Plains, in closer proximity to the ejecting
shortwave trough. While low-level moisture will remain relatively
modest in this area, backed low-level flow, steep midlevel lapse
rates, and moderate buoyancy could support initial supercell
development, with an attendant threat of all severe hazards. Storms
in this area may consolidate into an MCS, resulting in an organized
severe threat spreading toward the lower/mid MO Valley later Sunday
night.

Farther south, development along the dryline into parts of southern
KS, OK, and TX remains more uncertain. If isolated supercells can
develop and be sustained within this regime, they would be
accompanied by a threat for tornadoes (possibly strong), very large
hail, and localized severe gusts.

A separate area of nocturnal storm development will be possible
within a warm-advection regime from eastern KS into the Ozark
region. Buoyancy and shear may be sufficient to support some severe
threat with the strongest storms within this regime.

...Lower MS Valley...
Nocturnal storms from D2/Saturday may persist into Sunday morning
across the lower MS Valley, with additional diurnal development
possible along the remnant surface boundary. Moderate buoyancy could
support a localized severe threat across the region, within a modest northwesterly flow regime.

..Dean.. 04/24/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 250729
SWODY3
SPC AC 250728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN IOWA...A PORTION OF
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...MUCH OF EASTERN
MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...WESTERN INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE...NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears
probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Monday afternoon and evening. At least initially, this may
include several evolving supercells potentially capable of producing
strong tornadoes across parts of southeastern Iowa into central
through southern Illinois and adjacent east central and southeast
Missouri.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that significant surface cyclogenesis will proceed
across the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes region during this
period, as a notable short wave perturbation and associated 50-70 kt
cyclonic 500 mb jet streak progress northeast of the middle/lower
Missouri Valley region. Beneath a plume of warm/capping elevated
mixed-layer air nosing northeastward across the middle Mississippi
Valley, low-level warm sector moistening is generally forecast to
contribute to moderate to strong potential instability. Although
the details of the potential convective evolution remain unclear,
the environment appears likely to become supportive of organized
severe thunderstorm development, including supercells. Even if
convection grows quickly upscale into one or more clusters/lines,
embedded supercell structures will probably still pose potential for
producing strong tornadoes. If an initially discrete supercell mode
is maintained for a sustained period, tornadic potential could
maximize, with a few long track, particularly damaging tornadoes
possible.

At this time, it appears that strongest thunderstorm development may
initially focus in forcing for ascent associated with
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the nose of the
initially capping elevated mixed-layer across parts of southeastern
Iowa into central Illinois. Enlarged, clockwise-curved low-level
hodographs along this corridor, perhaps coinciding with a zone of
stronger differential surface heating associated with a modifying
outflow boundary, may become conducive to several strong tornadic
supercells before convection tends to grow upscale while propagating southeastward into Monday evening.

A dryline structure extending southwestward through portions of
eastern Missouri may also support initially discrete supercell
development, before activity tends to grow upscale ahead of an
advancing cold front while spreading into the lower Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys through Monday evening.

..Kerr.. 04/25/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 251931
SWODY3
SPC AC 251930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears
probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Monday afternoon and evening. At least initially, this may
include several evolving supercells potentially capable of producing
strong tornadoes across parts of southeastern Iowa into central
through southern Illinois and adjacent east central and southeast
Missouri.

...Synopsis...
A potent shortwave trough will move into the mid-Mississippi Valley
on Monday. A deepening surface low in the upper Mississippi Valley
will draw rich moisture northward into a very broad warm sector.
Strong deep-layer shear will promote numerous organized storms
capable of all severe hazards.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley...
A fairly well-timed shortwave trough will move into the region by mid-afternoon. A deepening surface low will lift northeastward into
the upper Mississippi Valley. Associated with the cyclone, a cold
front/dryline composite will drape southwestward through central
Iowa/western Missouri. Within the warm sector, rich moisture
(dewpoints in the upper 60s F) and mid-level lapse rates around 8
C/km will promote MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. 60+ kts of effective
shear is expected as the mid-level jet overspreads the region.
Supercells are possible along the warm front, pre-frontal trough,
and even the open warm sector given the forcing for ascent. All
severe hazards will be possible including very-large hail,
significant winds, and strong tornadoes. Potential for longer track
tornadoes is not out of the question. There remains some uncertainty
as to how convection will ultimately evolve during the afternoon
given the potential for early morning thunderstorms. The NAM would
suggest this activity clears out relatively quickly and development
on the pre-frontal trough or front in the afternoon is probable. The
latest ECMWF depicts convection lingering into the later
morning/early afternoon, particularly in northern and parts of
central Illinois. This would act to shift the primary corridor of
severe risk farther south and east. The main zone of concern, when
taking all guidance into account, appears to be from far southeast
Iowa into central Illinois. With time, one or more stronger linear
segments are expected to evolve where damaging winds and QLCS
tornadoes would be possible. A categorical upgrade to Level
4/Moderate was considered, but will await additional guidance which
will hopefully clarify how early-day convection will evolve.

...Mid-South...
Though this area will be displaced from the strongest mid-level
ascent, rich moisture (upper 60s F to potentially low 70s F
dewpoints) will promote 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. A broad mid-level jet
will nose into the region. Around 50 kts of effective shear can be
expected. Supercells capable of all severe hazards will be possible.

..Wendt.. 04/25/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 260731
SWODY3
SPC AC 260730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible
Tuesday afternoon and evening in a corridor from the southeastern
Great Plains into lower Ohio Valley.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that an evolving broad cyclone will continue to
deepen while migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region
through the southeastern Hudson Bay vicinity Tuesday through Tuesday
night. In its wake, it appears that a cold front will gradually
advance eastward and southward through the Ohio Valley/Mid South and
southern Great Plains. This may be slowed a bit as a trailing short
wave perturbation supports a developing frontal wave, as it migrates
through the base of broad, larger-scale interior North American
troughing, to the north of a prominent subtropical high maintaining
a notable influence as far north as the southern Great Plains
through Gulf Coast states.

There remains notable spread within the latest model output
concerning the frontal progression and where the stronger forcing
for ascent develops with the evolving wave. A conglomerate
convective outflow boundary may also initially precede the front
across the northern Gulf Coast states through Ark-La-Tex at the
outset of the period. Even so, guidance suggests that a corridor of
moderate to strong potential instability will again develop along
the frontal zone across parts of the southern Great Plains into Mid
South, and perhaps northeastward through portions of the Ohio
Valley. Aided by favorable vertical shear near the southern fringe
of the westerlies, this environment could become conducive to the
development of supercell structures and organizing clusters with
potential to produce damaging wind gusts, large hail and perhaps a
risk for tornadoes.

..Kerr.. 04/26/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 261920
SWODY3
SPC AC 261919

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible
Tuesday afternoon and evening in a corridor from the southeastern
Great Plains into lower Ohio Valley. More isolated severe storm
development may extend into central/western Texas.

...Synopsis...
A broad cyclone will continue to deepen while migrating northeast of
the upper Great Lakes region through the southeastern Hudson Bay
vicinity Tuesday through Tuesday night. As a secondary shortwave
trough deepens across the central Plains, another surface low will
develop near the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle region. An elongated cold
frontal zone will extend from the Panhandles across eastern Oklahoma
into the Mississippi and Ohio Valley. Widely scattered shower and
thunderstorm development is likely along this boundary as it sags
slowly south and east.

The evolution of features from D2 Monday into D3 Tuesday, including
any remnant outflow boundaries and ongoing storms ect remain
uncertain and thusly leads to some uncertainty in the D3 forecast.
It does appear that the parameter space along and south of the cold
front from eastern Oklahoma/northeastern Texas northward into the
Mississippi River Valley would be supportive of supercells, given
strong mid-level flow and sufficient deep layer shear. These would
likely pose some risk for large to very large hail, damaging wind,
and perhaps tornadoes. Supercells will also be possible near/north
of the boundary across northern Missouri into western Kentucky, with
a risk for elevated storms and large hail. It is likely give the
orientation of shear parallel to the boundary that
clustering/upscale growth will be favored through time, with perhaps
several clusters/bowing segments and some increase of the damaging
wind threat into the Mississippi Valley/Middle Tennessee/Ohio Valley
through the evening. A broad 15% area was maintained, in alignment
with D3 ML CSU/NSSL guidance given uncertainty. A corridor of higher probabilities may be warranted as details become more clear.

Further south and west along the dryline in central Texas, there is
some low chances that an isolated storm or two could develop in the
afternoon. Forcing for ascent will be weaker across this region,
with MLCIN in place through the morning. Nonetheless, CIN does
weaken through the early afternoon amid deeply mixed profiles and
steep lapse rates. A supercell or two could pose a risk for large
hail in this region.

..Thornton.. 04/26/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 270732
SWODY3
SPC AC 270730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INTO MID
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong storms could impact parts of the Allegheny Plateau into Mid
Atlantic, as well as portions of the northwestern through north
central Gulf Coast, Wednesday afternoon and evening, accompanied by
at least some risk for severe weather.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that mid-level ridging will continue to build inland
across the Canadian Rockies/Pacific Northwest through this period,
but it appears that attempts at a developing embedded high near the
Pacific Northwest coast will become suppressed by a short wave
impulse within the westerlies approaching the British Columbia
coast. Farther south, a mid-level low merging into a belt of
westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific may
accelerate toward southern California/northern Baja coastal areas,
but models vary concerning whether this will accelerate inland prior
to 12Z Thursday.

A downstream subtropical high, initially centered over southern
Mexico, may undergo at least some further southwestward suppression,
but it still may maintain considerable influence as far north as the northwestern Gulf coast Wednesday through Wednesday night. At the
same time, in higher latitudes, large-scale troughing encompassing
much of north central and northeastern North America is forecast to
continue slowly digging toward the northern/mid Atlantic Seaboard.
A broad embedded cyclonic mid-level circulation may begin to form
near/north of the Great Lakes region.

The confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies will
likely support southeastward development of cool surface ridging
across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, in the wake
of a southeastward advancing cold front. Models generally suggest
that a modest surface low evolving along this front will migrate
from the lower Ohio Valley northeastward through the lower Great
Lakes region, with a modest secondary surface low forming along a
developing warm front to the east of the Blue Ridge by late
Wednesday afternoon into evening.

...Gulf Coast vicinity...
It remains uncertain the extent to which pre-frontal convective
outflow may impact subsequent destabilization across the north
central Gulf Coast region, and perhaps beneath the stronger
mid-level ridging into the Texas coastal plain and Rio Grande
Valley. However, guidance suggests that a seasonably moist
boundary-layer may contribute to moderately large CAPE with
sufficient insolation, beneath at least modest west-northwesterly
mid-level flow. This environment might become conducive to at least
widely scattered storms with potential to produce severe hail and
wind. It is still possible that categorical and severe probabilties
could be increased further in later outlooks for this period.

...Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic...
The influence of potentially widespread remnant early period
convective precipitation on subsequent destabilization through the
day Wednesday remain unclear. However, as a fairly significant
short wave perturbation overspreads the region late Wednesday
afternoon and evening, the cold front approaching the Allegheny
Mountains, surface troughing and the developing low/warm front to
the east of the Blue Ridge could become the focus for strong to
severe thunderstorm with sufficient destabilization in the presence
of strong deep-layer shear. It is still possible that categorical
and severe probabilities could be increased further in later
outlooks for this period.

..Kerr.. 04/27/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 271931
SWODY3
SPC AC 271930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO THE MID ATLANTIC...AND ALSO FROM PARTS OF TEXAS
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible across parts of the
Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic, as well as from west-central
Texas to the central Gulf Coast, mainly Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

...West-central TX into the Southeast/Central Gulf Coast...
A substantial buoyancy reservoir is expected to persist from parts
of central/south TX toward the lower MS Valley on Wednesday. Due to
substantial early-week convection, considerable uncertainty remains
regarding the potential for an ongoing isolated severe threat in the
morning, and the location of the composite front/outflow and
potential redevelopment during the afternoon and evening.

With favorable instability and deep-layer shear, the environment
will be conditionally favorable for organized convection, including
potential for large hail and locally damaging wind. Large-scale
ascent is likely to be displaced north of the primary surface
boundary and strongest instability, so storm coverage remains
uncertain, but isolated supercells and/or small clusters will be
possible along/south of the front. An increase in severe
probabilities may eventually be needed across parts of this region,
depending on observational and guidance trends regarding boundary
placement and anticipated storm coverage.

...Allegheny Plateau to the Mid Atlantic...
A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from
the Midwest toward the Mid Atlantic on Wednesday. An attendant
surface low will move from the upper OH Valley toward the Delmarva
region, with trailing front extending southwestward into parts of
the Southeast, Carolinas, and Virginia by afternoon. The expectation
for substantial early-day cloudiness and precipitation continues to
result in uncertainty regarding potential for appreciable
destabilization during the afternoon. If sufficient destabilization
can occur, then favorable large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear
related to the approaching shortwave trough could support organized
storms, with a threat of damaging wind and possibly some hail.

Due to the lingering uncertainties regarding destabilization, a
broad Level 1/Marginal Risk is maintained with this outlook. An
eventual increase in severe probabilities will be possible for parts
of the region, depending on how the uncertainties are resolved.

..Dean.. 04/27/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 280728
SWODY3
SPC AC 280727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Probabilities for severe storms Thursday through Thursday night
appear less than 5 percent.

...Discussion...
Models suggest that an elongated area of lower mid-level heights
will continue a slow east-southeastward progression across much of
the upper Mississippi Valley through northern Atlantic Seaboard,
with an embedded cyclonic circulation redeveloping southeastward
through the Great Lakes region. In its wake split westerlies will
remain broadly confluent across and east of the Rockies, as a short
wave perturbation emerges from the subtropical eastern Pacific.
Further suppression of subtropical ridging centered across southern
Mexico appears probable Thursday through Thursday night, but short
wave ridging may persist to the east of the southern Rockies,
downstream of the subtropical perturbation.

Model spread remains sizable concerning the evolution and motion of
the subtropical perturbation, as well as developments within a
branch of westerlies to the north, emanating from the mid-latitude
Pacific. However, to the east of the Rockies, cool surface ridging
is likely to be maintained across much of the Great Plains and
Mississippi Valley into Southeast. While the frontal zone on the
leading edge of this air mass advances away from much of the
Atlantic Seaboard, it is generally forecast to stall across northern
Florida through the northern Gulf or Gulf coast vicinity. More
uncertainty exists, due to model spread, whether it will make
further progress southward through the Texas Big Bend vicinity and
coastal plain, or redevelop northward a bit, north of the coastal
plain and Pecos Valley.

Forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm
advection, downstream of the approaching subtropical perturbation,
may contribute to a corridor of increasing thunderstorm development
above the stable surface-based air across parts of the Permian Basin
and Texas South Plains through much of central Texas by late
Thursday night. However, it remains unclear if elevated
destabilization will become supportive of a risk for severe hail,
before convection becomes increasingly widespread.

Otherwise, the front might provide a general focus for widely
scattered thunderstorm activity near the Gulf coast vicinity, while destabilization beneath cool mid-level air across the Great Basin
into southern Rockies supports scattered, mostly diurnal
thunderstorm activity.

..Kerr.. 04/28/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 281931
SWODY3
SPC AC 281930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
southwest and south-central Texas on Thursday.

...Southwest into central TX...
A mid/upper-level low initially off of the Baja California coast is
forecast to eject eastward as a shortwave across northern Mexico,
and approach Far West Texas late in the period. A belt of moderate
to strong midlevel westerlies will be maintained downstream of this
system across much of TX. Easterly post-frontal low-level flow will
maintain relatively favorable moisture across southwest TX, though
somewhat weaker midlevel lapse rates (compared to previous days) may
limit MUCAPE to the 1000-2000 J/kg range. While weaker than previous
days, this buoyancy magnitude would still be conditionally favorable
for organized convection, given the presence of moderate to strong
deep-layer shear.

Details of storm coverage and evolution through the period remain
uncertain. Relatively vigorous elevated convection could support
some isolated hail potential, especially if early-day storms can be
maintained through the day, or with any diurnal surface-based
development. Storm coverage will likely tend to increase by Thursday
night, in response to the approaching shortwave trough. While
convective mode may quickly become complex late in the period, some
threat for hail or localized severe gusts could accompany the
strongest storms. Given the potential for one or more rounds of deep
convection within a relatively favorable environment, a Level
1/Marginal Risk has been included for southwest TX and vicinity.

..Dean.. 04/28/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 290731
SWODY3
SPC AC 290730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS...SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND VICINITY AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorm development is possible across middle
Texas coastal areas, parts of southeastern Louisiana and the Florida
Big Bend region Friday afternoon through Friday night.

...Discussion...
Latest model output suggests that there will be substantive
amplification within the split westerlies emanating from the
mid-latitude Pacific during this period, with ridging building to
the west of 140W longitude into the higher latitudes of western
Canada, and on a larger-scale eastward across the Canadian Prairies
and northern U.S. Rockies. Within this ridging, a modest mid-level
trough and embedded low are forecast to slowly dig to the west of
the U.S. Pacific coast, while broad upper ridging gradually builds
across the subtropical eastern Pacific.

Downstream, a confluent mid-level regime will be maintained across
and east of the Rockies, enhanced across the Great Plains into
middle Mississippi Valley, in the wake of short wave troughing
forecast to dig to the southwest of an elongated area of lower
heights slowly shifting eastward through the Ontario/Quebec/Great
Lakes and Northeast vicinity.

A short wave perturbation reaching the Texas Big Bend vicinity by
12Z Friday is likely to undergo shearing as it progresses through
the confluence to the south of the digging trough. However, as a
reinforcing cool surge noses southward to the lee of the southern
Rockies, across and south/southeast of the Texas Big Bend, guidance
suggests a notable lingering impulse may support a developing wave
along a stalled frontal zone, across middle Texas coastal areas
through the eastern Gulf coast vicinity Friday afternoon through
Friday night.

...Middle Texas coastal plain through Florida Big Bend region...
Large-scale forcing for ascent aided by warm advection along and to
the cool side of the front may support a swath of mostly weak
thunderstorm activity across much of the Gulf into southern Atlantic
coast during this period. Among other model output, forecast
soundings from the NAM and RRFS indicate thermodynamic profiles with
little potential for severe hail and/or wind. One exception may be
across middle Texas coastal areas, where loaded gun type soundings,
probably based above a stable surface-based layer, may become
conducive to supercell development in the presence of strong shear,
as mid-level forcing for ascent overspreads the region by late
afternoon.

Late Friday evening across southeastern-most parishes of Louisiana,
through the Florida Big Bend region by 12Z Saturday, forecast
soundings suggest modest boundary-layer destabilization is possible
in a pre-frontal corridor coincident with strengthening deep-layer
shear and enlarging, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. It is
possible that this will become supportive of supercells, accompanied
by the risk for a tornado or two, in addition to large hail and
localized damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 04/29/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 291933
SWODY3
SPC AC 291932

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST AND THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorm development is possible across the
middle Texas coast, parts of southeastern Louisiana and the Florida
Big Bend region Friday afternoon through Friday night.

...Synopsis...
A subtropical shortwave trough will move out of central Texas and
parallel the Gulf Coast region. The shortwave trough will lose
amplitude with time, but a northern stream shortwave trough will dig southeastward and phase with the southern wave. The mid-level jet
will intensify as this process occurs. A surface boundary will be
placed roughly along the Gulf Coast with the degree of rich inland
moisture uncertain.

...Middle Texas Coast...
As the shortwave trough progresses eastward towards coastal Texas,
lift will be favorably timed with afternoon heating. The main
question will be how far inland, if at all, the moist airmass will
be by that time. The ECMWF is more aggressive with its southward
push of the cold front than the NAM. Should the front stay inland,
mid-level ascent will likely promote a storm or two along the
boundary. Strong effective shear, steep mid-level lapse rates, and
moderate buoyancy suggests supercells would be possible. Large hail
and damaging winds would be the main hazards.

...Central/eastern Gulf Coast...
Though the shortwave trough is expected to become less amplified,
the mid-level jet will still strengthen with time as another
shortwave trough digging southeastward from the central Plains will
phase with the southern stream trough. Subject to the same surface
boundary placement uncertainty as farther west, storms could
potentially develop after 00Z in southeastern Louisiana with
additional storms possible later in the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend
region. Supercells/linear segments are possible. Large hail and
damaging winds would be a concern, but an increase in low-level
hodograph curvature also suggests a tornado or two could also occur
with the most organized storms.

..Wendt.. 04/29/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 300729
SWODY3
SPC AC 300728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN GEORGIA....

...SUMMARY...
Strong storms may impact parts of northern Florida and southern
Georgia Saturday with potential for some of this activity to become
severe.

...Discussion...
Within amplified ridging across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific by
the outset of the period, models indicate that a mid-level high may
begin to form over the northeastern Pacific, roughly near 50N/140W,
while an evolving low to its south digs offshore of the California
coast. Downstream flow is forecast to remain broadly confluent
across and east of the Rockies, with one notable short wave
perturbation pivoting east of the Ozark Plateau through the Mid
Atlantic coast by 12Z Sunday. This likely will be preceded by a
shearing impulse, emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific
today, across the eastern Gulf Coast states through southern Mid
Atlantic by late Saturday afternoon.

In lower-levels, models indicate that these developments will be
accompanied significant surface cyclogenesis offshore of the
Atlantic Seaboard. It remains a bit unclear whether this will
initiate from a developing frontal wave initially offshore of the
Carolina coast, before migrating northeastward, or in association
with continuing development of a wave initially forming Friday
near/offshore of the lower to middle Texas coast.

Regardless, in association with the wave approaching from the Gulf,
a corridor of pre-frontal boundary-layer destabilization appears
possible across the Florida Big Bend vicinity through southern
Georgia/northern Florida Atlantic coastal areas by mid to late
Saturday afternoon. Coinciding with strengthening southwesterly to
westerly wind fields, including 30-70+ kts in the 850-500 mb layer,
if this occurs, it is possible that the environment could become
conducive to severe thunderstorm development. This may include
evolving supercell structures, and perhaps a small organizing
convective system.

..Kerr.. 04/30/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 301929
SWODY3
SPC AC 301928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN
GEORGIA INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to marginally severe storms are possible in southern Georgia
into northern/central Florida.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough across the eastern U.S. will continue to pivot
through the Southeast. A surface cold front will move southward into
the Florida Peninsula.

...Southern Georgia into Florida...
Rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) is
expected to exist ahead of the southward-moving cold front.
Mid-level ascent will be strongest across southern Georgia and North
Florida, diminishing with southward extent. Strong flow within the
850-500 mb layer will help to organize convection. Areas that
receive greater surface heating could allow a few strong to severe
storms to develop during the late morning/afternoon. Deep-layer
shear will be strong, but will also be parallel to the front. At
least some activity may have a tendency to be undercut. Both
supercells and small clusters will be possible. Large hail and
damaging winds are the primary concerns. Low-level shear will be
greater in the morning and decrease with time as the low-level jet
moves northeast, leading to a more uncertain tornado threat.

..Wendt.. 04/30/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 010618
SWODY3
SPC AC 010617

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of northern
Missouri, southeast Iowa and central Illinois on Sunday.

...Mid-MS Valley...

Northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the region on the back
side of an eastern U.S. upper trough. Cold temperatures aloft (near
-20 C at 500 mb) will foster steep midlevel lapse rates and support
moderate MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. However, boundary
layer moisture is expected to be limited by a prior cold front
passage as modified Gulf moisture remains well offshore. Surface
dewpoints are generally forecast to be in the 50s as temperatures
warm into the 70s. Isolated thunderstorms may develop during the
afternoon within the unstable airmass amid strong west/northwesterly
deep-layer flow. Some forecast guidance depicts modest capping
across the region while large-scale ascent remains nebulous. If
storms can develop and be maintained, a risk for strong wind gusts
and hail will be possible.

..Leitman.. 05/01/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 011926
SWODY3
SPC AC 011925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
MID-MISSOURI AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of
northern/central Missouri and central Illinois on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic flow aloft across much of the central/eastern CONUS
will continue on Sunday. Within the broader cyclone, shortwave
troughs will rotate into the northern Plains and lower
Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys. A surface high will continue to
shift southeastward allowing some southerly return flow into the
southern Plains/Mid-South into parts of Missouri/Illinois. As the
northern Plains trough intensifies, a weak surface boundary will
move southeastward into the Midwest.

...Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys...
Moisture return ahead of the weak surface front is not expected to
be significant. The initial return flow pattern may allow low 50s F
dewpoints to reach parts of Missouri/Illinois. Despite the limited
moisture, temperatures aloft will be quite cold (nearing -20 C at
500 mb). At least a narrow zone of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE appears
possible. Storm coverage may remain isolated, but there is
reasonable confidence in development given surface convergence and
aid from a passing shortwave trough by late afternoon. Where storms
can develop, 40-50 kt of effective shear, a well-mixed boundary
layer, and the steep mid-level lapse rates would support a risk for
large hail and severe wind gusts. The most notable change with this
outlook is to shift probabilities southward given the latest
guidance trends.

..Wendt.. 05/01/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 020627
SWODY3
SPC AC 020626

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night.

...Eastern KS to OH...

A deepening upper trough will develop southward into the Upper
Midwest on Monday/Monday night. Stronger height falls will remain
confined to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, with more modest
height falls into the Mid-MS Valley near/after 00z. At the surface,
low pressure is forecast to move across Ontario and Quebec, while a
trailing cold front develops southward across the Upper MS Valley
during the day, and becomes oriented from southern Lower MI to
eastern KS by early Tuesday. Gulf moisture return will remain
limited, with generally 50s to near 60 F dewpoints expected in a
narrow corridor ahead of the cold front. Cool temperatures aloft
will support steep lapse rates across the region and MLCAPE around
1000-1500 J/kg is forecast during the afternoon into the nighttime
hours from KS into portions of the Mid-MS Valley and eastward into IN/OH/extreme southern Lower MI.

Capping and weak forcing for ascent may limit thunderstorm
development across the warm sector through peak heating. However, as
a southwesterly low-level jet increases around/after 00z, modest
height falls overspread the region, and the surface cold front
develops southward toward the corridor of modest boundary layer
moisture, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may initiate.
Effective shear around 35+ kt will aid in organized storm
structures, and isolated large hail and locally strong gusts are
possible.

..Leitman.. 05/02/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 021927
SWODY3
SPC AC 021926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night.

...Synopsis...
A split flow pattern aloft will evolve on Monday. Cyclonic flow will
sag southward from the northern U.S. into the Upper Midwest and
parts of the Midwest. On the West Coast, an upper low will become
more of an open wave and move into the lower Colorado Valley. In
response to the intensifying upper low near the Upper Great Lakes, a
stronger cold front will move into the Lower Great Lakes, Midwest,
and central Plains.

...Eastern Kansas into central Ohio...
With an additional day of return flow, low-level moisture should be
increased from Sunday. Mid/upper 50s F dewpoints are most probable,
but low 60s are not out of the question in eastern Kansas/western
Missouri. Models differ in the intensity/placement of the
subtropical jet stream leading to differences in where the surface cyclone/front will be positioned by late afternoon. Mid-level ascent
along the boundary will be weak through most of the day with some
increase noted mainly after 00Z. Even so, surface heating will be
sufficient to reach convective temperatures in parts of
Illinois/Indiana/Ohio. Farther west, mid/upper clouds may be more
prevalent and afternoon development, uncertain as it is, will be
tied to mesoscale features such as the triple point. During the
evening, an intensifying low-level jet should promote greater storm development/coverage along the boundary. Storms would be capable of
large hail and locally damaging wind gusts.

..Wendt.. 05/02/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 030642
SWODY3
SPC AC 030641

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Monday
afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma and
northeast Texas into the Mid-South.

...Synopsis...

Deep-layer southwesterly flow will increase across the southern
Plains to the Ohio Valley and Northeast as the upper trough over the
Upper Midwest and northern/central Plains and an upper trough over
the Southwest begin to phase. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to extend from southern Lower MI to northern OK Tuesday
morning. This boundary will develop slowly southeast through the
period, becoming oriented from NY to the Mid-South to north-central
TX by Wednesday morning. During the afternoon, a dryline will be
oriented across central TX. Ahead of the surface front and east of
the dryline, increasing southerly low-level flow will transport 60s
F dewpoints across the Sabine Valley into AR. The surface front and
dryline will serve as a focus for strong to severe thunderstorm
development during the afternoon/evening.

...OK/TX to the Mid-South...

Convective development is likely near the surface triple point and
cold front by 00z as forcing for ascent impinges on the moist and
moderately unstable airmass in the eastern OK/AR vicinity.
Thunderstorm coverage will likely increase through the evening as a
modest low-level jet develops. Any discrete convection that develops
will pose a risk for large hail and perhaps a tornado or two.
However, convection may become linear along the surface front rather
quickly, with an accompanying increase in damaging wind potential.

Severe potential along the dryline across parts of OK/TX is more uncertain/conditional. Capping and nebulous large-scale ascent
(especially with southwest extent across TX) may suppress
convection. However, if a storm can develop within the favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space, large hail will be
possible.

..Leitman.. 05/03/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 030647
SWODY3
SPC AC 030646

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND ARKANSAS...

CORRECTED FOR SUMMARY

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma and
northeast Texas into the Mid-South.

...Synopsis...

Deep-layer southwesterly flow will increase across the southern
Plains to the Ohio Valley and Northeast as the upper trough over the
Upper Midwest and northern/central Plains and an upper trough over
the Southwest begin to phase. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to extend from southern Lower MI to northern OK Tuesday
morning. This boundary will develop slowly southeast through the
period, becoming oriented from NY to the Mid-South to north-central
TX by Wednesday morning. During the afternoon, a dryline will be
oriented across central TX. Ahead of the surface front and east of
the dryline, increasing southerly low-level flow will transport 60s
F dewpoints across the Sabine Valley into AR. The surface front and
dryline will serve as a focus for strong to severe thunderstorm
development during the afternoon/evening.

...OK/TX to the Mid-South...

Convective development is likely near the surface triple point and
cold front by 00z as forcing for ascent impinges on the moist and
moderately unstable airmass in the eastern OK/AR vicinity.
Thunderstorm coverage will likely increase through the evening as a
modest low-level jet develops. Any discrete convection that develops
will pose a risk for large hail and perhaps a tornado or two.
However, convection may become linear along the surface front rather
quickly, with an accompanying increase in damaging wind potential.

Severe potential along the dryline across parts of OK/TX is more uncertain/conditional. Capping and nebulous large-scale ascent
(especially with southwest extent across TX) may suppress
convection. However, if a storm can develop within the favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space, large hail will be
possible.

..Leitman.. 05/03/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 031932
SWODY3
SPC AC 031931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...CENTRAL/NORTHERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma and
northeast Texas into the Mid-South.

...Synopsis...
Broad troughing within northern parts of the CONUS will begin to
phase with the southwestern trough on Tuesday. A strong mid-level
jet will extend from the Southwest into the lower Great
Lakes/Northeast. At the surface, a low pressure system initially in
eastern Oklahoma will lose definition through the period. A cold
front will extend from the upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-South and
southern Oklahoma by the afternoon. A dryline will extend from the
surface low into central/southwest Texas.

...Southern Plains/Mid-South...
The surface low/triple point and the cold front will generally be
the main focus for convective development around late afternoon.
While front will have modest southward progress through the day, it
does appear that linear modes are more likely within the Mid-South
region. From southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas, shear vectors
will have a more favorable orientation to the surface trough/dryline
and discrete storms are possible until the front pushes farther
south. Large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes would be possible
early in the convective cycle before a gradual transition to a
damaging wind threat occurs with upscale growth. The latest NAM
output has come in notably cooler than other guidance on account of
more substantial cloud cover and faster front progression. A minor southeastward shift of severe probabilities was made to account for
lesser destabilization occurring with northward extent.

Along the dryline in North/Central Texas, storm initiation is much
less certain on account of weak large-scale ascent. Should a storm
develop, large hail and severe winds gusts would be possible given
steep lapse rates and long hodographs.

..Wendt.. 05/03/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 040620
SWODY3
SPC AC 040619

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
INTO PARTS OF ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
afternoon and evening across portions of Texas into the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Damaging winds, large hail, and a
couple of tornadoes will be possible.

...Texas to the Lower MS and TN Valleys...

A midlevel shortwave trough will migrate from the central/southern
Rockies to the southern Plains on Wednesday. Strong southwesterly
deep-layer flow will overspread the southern Plains into much of the
southern and eastern U.S. ahead of this feature. At the surface, a
cold front will extend from the upper OH Valley southwestward to
southern AR Wednesday morning, with the western extent of the front
sloped across northeast to southwest TX. Ahead of the front, rich
Gulf moisture will be in place with dewpoints generally in the mid
60s to near 70 across TX into the Lower MS Valley, decreasing with
northeast extent. This will support a corridor of moderate
destabilization ahead of the front from parts of TX into MS where
MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg is possible. Instability will be
somewhat less with northeast extent across the TN Valley.

Storm mode is somewhat uncertain Wednesday afternoon. If discrete
cells can develop, steep lapse rates, favorable thermodynamic, elongated/straight hodographs and 45+ kt effective shear magnitudes
suggest supercells with an all-hazards risk will be possible.
However, given deep layer flow parallel to the surface front and a
southward progressing front, convection may tend to become linear
quickly. This would increase damaging wind potential. Given
uncertainty in storm mode, declined introducing a CIG 1 area for
hail. In general, convection should develop during the afternoon and
spread east/southeast with time through the overnight hours, with an
accompany severe risk.

..Leitman.. 05/04/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 041913
SWODY3
SPC AC 041912

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS
INTO ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
afternoon and evening across portions of Texas into the lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Damaging winds, large hail, and a
couple of tornadoes will be possible.

...Synopsis...
A large positive-tilt upper trough will extend from upper Great
Lakes into the Southwest, with a broad zone of strong mid to high
levels southwesterlies extending from the southern Plains across the
lower to middle MS and TN Valleys. Gradual cooling aloft will occur
through the period as this upper trough proceeds gradually east. At
the surface, a cold front will extend from the upper OH Valley into
central TX during the day, and this front will surge south overnight
into the southeastern states and southern TX.

...Eastern TX into the TN Valley...
A very moist air mass will exist ahead of the cold front, with 70s F
dewpoints from TX into AL. Early day storms are likely in the warm
advection regime over parts of KY and TN, aided by southwest 850 mb
winds around 40 kt. This may temporarily stabilize these northern
areas before destabilization occurs later in the day. The strongest
heating will occur from TX into MS/AL, with MUCAPE up to 3000 J/kg.

The greatest risk area will extend from the Sabine River into MS and
northern AL late in the day, perhaps near 00Z, and into the early
evening, as storms finally break the capping inversion after a full
days heating. Deep-layer shear will be oriented mostly parallel to
the front, and low-level winds will be a bit veered with marginal
SRH values. Still, supercells may develop owing to strong effective
shear, with steep lapse rates aloft supporting hail. Damaging winds
may become an issue as storms possibly merge with bowing structures.

For northern areas from TN into KY, the risk will depend on air mass
recovery in the wake of any early day activity. Conditionally,
low-level shear may be stronger in this region, with an isolated
tornado or hail risk.

..Jewell.. 05/04/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 050641
SWODY3
SPC AC 050640

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday
across portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina.

...Gulf coast to SC...

A large upper trough will pivot over the eastern U.S. on Thursday.
Strong west/southwesterly deep-layer flow will be in place across
the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front
will develop south/southeast across portions of south TX, the
central Gulf coast states and the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A
seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the boundary, and
some risk for strong to severe storms will exist near the
progressing cold front from southern MS/AL into SC.

There is some uncertainty regarding the position of the cold front
Thursday morning. The NAM is faster compared to the GFS and ECMWF. Nevertheless, rich Gulf moisture ahead of the boundary will support
at least modest destabilization. Convection will likely be ongoing
near the front Thursday morning. Redevelopment or intensification
into midday and through the afternoon appears plausible given strong
deep-layer flow within the modestly unstable airmass. Clusters and
linear convection appear most likely, with an attendant risk of
damaging wind.

...South TX...

Severe potential across south TX is uncertain and will depend on
cold frontal position Thursday morning. If southward progress of the
front is slowly, some risk of severe could develop across south TX
where 70s dewpoints and daytime heating could support strong
instability. If storms develop, a risk for hail appears possible.
However, some forecast guidance surges the cold front southward
across the region during the morning and maintains capping through
the day. Low confidence precludes severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 05/05/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 051915
SWODY3
SPC AC 051914

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across
portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper-level speed max will move across the Southeast to Mid
Atlantic Thursday as the parent upper trough moves across the Great
Lakes and into the Northeast. A cold front will extend roughly from
the central Carolinas to the north-central Gulf Coast by late
afternoon, with 60s F dewpoints ahead of it.

Scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing Thursday morning across much
of this region ahead of the cold front, within the 850 mb theta-e
plume. A few strong gusts will be possible. Thereafter, the rapid
progression of the upper trough will foster midlevel drying, with
veering low-level winds. As such, the greatest potential for a few
strong storms appear to be from morning through midday prior to the
front moving offshore. Forecast soundings show very strong
deep-layer shear, but also increasing midlevel subsidence which may
counteract additional late afternoon development. Any additional
late day development should be quite isolated and marginal in
nature.

..Jewell.. 05/05/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 060624
SWODY3
SPC AC 060623

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain/limited on Friday/Friday
night.

...TX...

A compact upper low and attendant trough over northern Mexico will
develop east over TX on Friday/Friday night. Ahead of this feature,
shortwave upper ridging will persist across the south-central U.S.
through at least Friday evening. Weak south/southeasterly low-level
flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across TX, supporting
modest destabilization. Most guidance depicts capping across the
region, with warm temperatures within the 850-700 mb layer noted in
forecast soundings. However, models do differ with regards to the
strength of the cap. Weak flow is also expected below 500 mb, though
veering wind profiles will result in stronger effective shear.
Thunderstorm development is uncertain, but if storms can development
and be maintained, some hail risk is possible given steep midlevel
lapse rates. Given uncertainty regarding depth and timing of
moisture return and persistent capping, will hold off from adding a
Level 1 (Marginal) risk at this time, especially as it is unclear
where the best potential would develop across TX.

..Leitman.. 05/06/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 061932
SWODY3
SPC AC 061931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
MISSOURI INTO OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are possible on Friday from parts of Oklahoma
into Missouri. Scattered storms are also likely over much of Texas
into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
A northwest flow regime will exist from the Plains into the MS
Valley on Friday as an embedded shortwave moves across the central
Plains and rapidly moves toward the TN Valley into Saturday morning.
Meanwhile, a compact upper low is forecast to move across the Rio
Grande Valley and into TX, providing cool temperatures aloft.

At the surface, a cold front will move into MO/KS and OK, which will
be situated below the cool temperature aloft. Heating/steep lapse
rates near this boundary as well as southerly winds bringing 50s and
60s F dewpoints northward will support scattered strong to severe
storms along this portion of the front. The long hodographs and
northwest flow regime suggest cells capable of hail are most likely.

To the south, bouts of thunderstorms will develop from TX eastward
toward the lower MS Valley. First, early in the day within the
moisture return/warm advection regime, then later in the day as the
upper low approaches from the west. There is a heavy convective
signal from late afternoon into the overnight across much of TX,
however, shear will be weak across most areas. At least low severe probabilities may be added in later outlooks as predictability
increases and more targeted areas can be discerned.

..Jewell.. 05/06/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 070634
SWODY3
SPC AC 070633

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
across portions of southern Kansas into northwestern and central
Oklahoma.

...KS/OK...

A midlevel shortwave trough will migrate from the central Rockies to
the Lower MS Valley on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will
develop in response to the approaching trough in the vicinity of the
TX Panhandle. A dryline will extend southward from the low across
west TX while a warm front extends from far southern KS into
northern/central AR. Gulf moisture will spread northward across OK
to far southern KS and isolated to scattered thunderstorms may
develop by 00z. A cold front will eventually dive southward across
the central/southern Plains during the nighttime hours, but the
timing of this feature is still uncertain.

The warm sector is expected to be somewhat narrow across southern KS
and OK. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft will foster steep
midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg will be
possible. Boundary layer moisture will be somewhat limited,
generally in the upper 50s to low 60s. Strong heating will allow for
deep mixing, and forecast soundings indicate any storms that develop
will likely be higher-based. Effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt
will support organized convection posing a risk for hail and
damaging wind gusts.

..Leitman.. 05/07/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 071923
SWODY3
SPC AC 071922

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
across parts of the southern/central Plains, and from east Texas
into the lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast.

...Southern/Central Plains...
Within large-scale upper troughing encompassing much of the
central/eastern CONUS and Canada, a mid-level shortwave trough is
forecast to develop southeastward from the northern Rockies/High
Plains towards the central High Plains by Saturday evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis should occur over the southern/central High Plains,
with modest low-level moisture forecast to return northward across
north TX into OK to the east of a surface dryline. High-based
convection should develop Saturday afternoon across eastern CO into
western KS, with locally gusty winds possible.

A somewhat greater severe wind and hail risk should exist late
Saturday afternoon and evening across the eastern TX Panhandle,
southwest KS, and into OK where weak to locally moderate instability
should be in place. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty how
far north greater low-level moisture and related instability will
advance, but any cells that can form could pose an isolated threat
for large hail and damaging winds given sufficient deep-layer shear
for modest updraft organization. Have expanded the Marginal Risk a
bit in OK and the eastern TX Panhandle to account for potential
surface-based development along the dryline, and for a possible
cluster/MCS Saturday evening.

...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
Thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period Saturday
morning across parts of the lower MS Valley/Southeast. This activity
may tend to remain elevated to the north of a surface front through
Saturday morning. But, increasing potential for surface-based
thunderstorms should exist as daytime heating along/south of the
front occurs, and as a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances
eastward from east TX into the northern Gulf and vicinity. One or
more clusters may eventually evolve and pose some risk for damaging
winds as they spread east-southeastward across parts of the lower MS Valley/Southeast through the afternoon and early evening. Isolated
severe hail may also occur with somewhat more discrete convection
across portions of east TX into LA, where steeper mid-level lapse
rates and greater instability are forecast to exist.

..Gleason.. 05/07/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 080729
SWODY3
SPC AC 080728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARK-LA-TEX...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible
Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of west Texas
east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex. A marginal severe threat is
expected to develop over parts of the eastern Gulf Coast.

...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward
through the central U.S. on Sunday, as a cold front advances
southward across the southern Plains. South of the front, surface
dewpoints mostly in the 60s F will contribute to moderate
instability by afternoon from a dryline in west Texas
east-northeastward across much of north-central and northeast Texas.
As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases
near the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the northern edge of the moist airmass during the afternoon
and evening.

Forecast soundings across parts of west and north-central Texas late
Sunday afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 2000 to 3500
J/kg range with 0-6 shear around 35 knots. This, combined with
700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km, should be favorable for a
large-hail threat. In addition, steep 0-3 km lapse rates should
support an isolated wind-damage threat, especially if a cold pool
can organize. The cold front position is expected to be a bit
further south than is currently forecast. This projected position is
in relatively good agreement with the most reliable guidance, which
adds confidence in a potential severe threat area in west,
north-central and northeast Texas Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Central and Eastern Gulf Coast...
Westerly mid-level flow is forecast on Sunday across the Gulf Coast
region. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place from the
central Gulf Coast eastward to Florida. Some solutions move a subtle
shortwave trough eastward across the Southeast on Sunday. This would
support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development in the
afternoon near the coast from southeast Louisiana eastward to
southern Georgia and northern Florida. Instability and deep-layer
shear is expected to be strong enough for a marginal severe threat
during the mid to late afternoon.

..Broyles.. 05/08/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 081927
SWODY3
SPC AC 081926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe/damaging
winds appear likely Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of Texas
into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough will continue advancing southeastward
Sunday from the central Plains into the southern Plains and lower MS
Valley. While west-northwesterly mid-level flow is not forecast to
be overly strong with this feature (around 30-45 kt), there should
be sufficient effective bulk shear to support organized convection.
At the surface, a cold front is expected to shift southeastward
across these regions through the day, with a seasonably moist
low-level airmass in place ahead of it. Daytime heating of this
airmass and the presence of at least modestly steepened mid-level
lapse rates (particularly across TX) should support the development
of moderate to strong instability along/ahead of the front by early
Sunday afternoon.

Thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of central/eastern OK at
the start of the period, with an isolated severe threat possible.
Current expectations are for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to
develop along much of the length of the cold front from west TX
northeastward into southeast OK and the ArkLaTex by mid afternoon as large-scale ascent attendant to the mid-level shortwave trough
overspreads the destabilizing warm sector. While somewhat stronger
mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear may tend to remain
mostly displaced to the north of the cold front, initial multicell
clusters and embedded supercells will likely pose a threat for both
large hail and severe/damaging winds. With time, a consolidation
into one or more bowing clusters should occur, with a greater risk
for damaging winds, particularly across parts of central into
northeast TX. The Slight Risk has been expanded to account for where
confidence is greatest in scattered to potentially numerous
severe/damaging winds being realized with convection Sunday
afternoon and evening.

Farther east into the lower MS Valley/Southeast, confidence in
organized severe convection remains somewhat lower, mainly due to
uncertainty regarding sufficient instability/destabilization ahead
of the front. Any cells/clusters that can form and spread
east-southeastward could pose an isolated threat for hail and
damaging winds. The Marginal Risk has been expanded eastward and
combined with the previously separate risk area across the Gulf
Coast, where isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur
along various sea breezes.

..Gleason.. 05/08/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 090715
SWODY3
SPC AC 090714

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts are expected
on Monday from parts of the central Gulf Coast states eastward to
the southern Atlantic Seaboard.

...Central and Eastern Gulf Coast States/Carolinas...
At mid-levels, heights will fall across the Southeast on Monday, as
a trough progresses eastward into the Atlantic coastal states. At
the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the
Southeast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place
inland across the central Gulf Coast and northeastward into much of
Georgia, South Carolina and far southern North Carolina. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop around midday along
and ahead of the front, and near coastal convergence zones. Steep
low-level lapse rates and deep low-level moisture will be favorable
for isolated severe gusts associated with multicells that develop in
the afternoon.

..Broyles.. 05/09/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 091906
SWODY3
SPC AC 091905

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts are possible
Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast.

...Southeast Monday afternoon...
A surface cold front will move southeastward into the northwest Gulf
early in the period, likely aided by outflow from D2 convection.
Farther east, the front will reach the coast of the Carolinas Monday
afternoon, and the northeast Gulf coast/north FL by late Monday
night or early Tuesday morning. Aloft, a midlevel trough will
progress eastward near the Gulf coast, in advance of the next
digging wave over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley.
Thunderstorms will be possible within the moist environment along
the front. A few strong storms/clusters with wind damage may occur
Monday afternoon along the front, where pockets of stronger surface
heating occur in cloud breaks, coincident with modest enhancement of
midlevel flow/deep-layer shear. Isolated strong storms will also be
possible along the Atlantic coast sea breeze into the FL peninsula.

...Northern Plains to Upper MS Valley Monday afternoon/night...
Low-level moisture will remain limited in advance of a midlevel
trough digging southeastward, around the northeast periphery of a
ridge over the Southwest. Deep surface mixing along the surface
front/trough could support isolated, high-based storms Monday
afternoon across ND. However, the more probable scenario will be
for a few elevated storms to form by Monday evening/night over MN
and adjacent areas of WI/IA where sufficient midlevel
moistening/ascent occurs on the east edge of the steeper midlevel
lapse rates.

..Thompson.. 05/09/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 100731
SWODY3
SPC AC 100730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday from parts of southeast Kansas into far western
Illinois.

...Southern and Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move southeastward across the
north-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley.
Ahead of the front, moisture will be somewhat limited with surface
dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F. As surface, temperatures warm
during the day, instability is expected to develop ahead of the
front. Forecasts suggest the strongest instability will be in
southeast Kansas and western Missouri, where MLCAPE could reach the
1000 to 1500 J/kg range, if the more aggressive model solutions pan
out. Increasing low-level convergence near the front Tuesday
afternoon will likely result in widely-spaced convective initiation.
Storms are expected to move east-southeastward toward the
instability axis during the late afternoon and early evening. At
this time, there are a wide range of model solutions concerning
instability. In addition, some models have a warm layer at 700 mb
near the front, which would limit severe potential. However, if an
axis of moderate instability can develop ahead of the front, and
some storms can become surface-based, then a potential will exist
for isolated severe wind gusts and hail.

..Broyles.. 05/10/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 101932
SWODY3
SPC AC 101930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
KANSAS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday from parts of southeast Kansas northeast into
southern Wisconsin.

... Overview ...

The midlevel pattern will amplify further on Tuesday as a midlevel
low and associated trough move southeast over the Upper Great Lakes
in response to a building ridge upstream. As the midlevel flow
amplifies, a jet streak will redevelop on the upshear side of the
trough, resulting in strong vertical shear across the Central US.

At the surface, a low will quickly drop southeast out of Canada,
across Wisconsin, into Lower Michigan. To the west/southwest of this
low, a cold front will quickly push south and east.


... Southeast Kansas northeast into Southern Wisconsin ...

Ahead of the aforementioned surface cold front, southerly winds on
the west side of a surface anticyclone will support northward
moisture transport across the central US. The 20260510/12Z guidance
suite shows considerable variance in the depth and quality of the
moisture return and in turn, convective coverage.

Low level convergence along the front will be greatest the closest
to the surface low. Despite surface dewpoints in the upper-40Fs to
perhaps low-50Fs, a couple of thunderstorms are likely to develop
across southern Wisconsin. Convergence along the front should
decrease with southwest extent with an increasing EML/cap in the
same direction. Thus, despite better low level moisture, and in turn
buoyancy, across the Central Plains, confidence in thunderstorm
development is low. That said, the 20260510/12Z Hi-Res NAM shows
thunderstorm development all along the front from southeast Kansas
into Wisconsin. The overall kinematic environment will be favorable
for at least a few severe wind reports where ever thunderstorms
develop, and thus the Level 1/Marginal Risk has been expanded to
incorporate this potential.


... Central and South Florida ...

A post frontal airmass should be in place across the area on
Tuesday, with northerly surface winds advecting in a slightly drier
airmass. Despite that, a myriad of potential surface boundaries
(including both Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes) will be around during
the afternoon to serve as potential thunderstorm initiation
mechanisms. Although effective layer shear will be around 30 to
perhaps 40 knots, the degree of instability may limit the overall
wind threat.


... Interior Pacific Northwest ...

A few thunderstorms may develop during the late afternoon and
overnight across portions of Oregon and Washington within a belt of
strong southerly flow ahead of an approaching midlevel trough to the
west and the building ridge to the east. Although low level moisture
should remain scant, sufficient midlevel moisture should combine
with large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates to support a few
thunderstorms. Fast storm motions and steep low-to-midlevel lapse
rates may support a few severe thunderstorm wind gusts. However, the
nature of this threat is still too low to warrant unconditional
severe probabilities.

..Marsh.. 05/10/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 110719
SWODY3
SPC AC 110717

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible on Wednesday across the Ohio
Valley and central Appalachians.

...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday. At the surface, a low will move
eastward across the lower Great Lakes, as a cold front advances east-southeastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Ahead of
the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F will
contribute to weak destabilization by afternoon. MLCAPE near the
instability axis is forecast to peak around 500 J/kg with 0-6 km
shear in the 25 to 35 knot range. This should support a marginal
severe threat during the afternoon as low-level lapse rates become
steep. A few isolated severe wind gusts will be possible.

..Broyles.. 05/11/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 111909
SWODY3
SPC AC 111908

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible on Wednesday across the Ohio
Valley and central Appalachians as well as portions of western and
central Montana.

... Overview ...

An amplified, yet progressive, midlevel pattern will persist on
Wednesday, with a shortwave trough moving across the northern
Rockies, an amplified ridge across the central US, and an amplified
longwave trough across the East. Embedded within the eastern
longwave trough, a shortwave trough will quickly pivot through the
basal region of the longwave trough, taking on a negative tilt as it
approaches the Mid-Atlantic Coast by the end of the forecast period.


At the surface, a low across Lower Michigan will move east across
the Great Lakes into northern New York and weaken as a new low
develops farther south along the front across the Mid-Atlantic
Region. As the initial low moves east, a surface front will also
move east across the Ohio Valley and approach the Mid-Atlantic
region by the end of the forecast period. Farther west, ahead of the
midlevel shortwave trough moving across the northern Rockies, lee
troughing will develop across the High Plains, with low-level
moisture beginning to return northward into the Central Plains.


... Ohio Valley and the Central Appalachians ...

A dry airmass will be in place across the region at the start of the
forecast period in the wake of a cool, dry anticyclone from the day
before. As the anticyclone moves east off the Atlantic Coast, modest
moisture advection will develop during the late morning into early
afternoon. The 20260511/12Z guidance suite shows varying solutions
regarding the depth and quality of the moisture return, with surface
dewpoints ranging from the upper-40Fs in the drier solutions to
perhaps 60F in the more moist solutions.

The depth and quality of the low level moisture will have an impact
on the resulting degree of instability and thunderstorm
potential/coverage. That said, the degree of forcing along the
surface front should support at least a few thunderstorms despite
instability generally around 500-1000 J/kg or less. The overall
kinematic profiles would support strong, gusty winds with any
thunderstorm that can sustain itself.


... West-central Montana into Central Montana ...

A negatively tilted shortwave trough will move across the area
during the forecast period. Despite very dry low levels initially,
increasing midlevel moisture and steep lapse rates may support a few
hundred joules per kilogram of MUCAPE during the late afternoon and
evening. As strong deep-layer ascent overspreads this environment a
few high-based thunderstorms may develop before the low-levels
moisten. Strong midlevel flow and a dry sub-cloud layer will support
at least a marginal threat for damaging wind gusts. One potential
negative for damaging wind gusts will be widespread cloud cover
associated with the increasing midlevel moisture that inhibits
destabilization. However, even in this scenario, gradient winds will
still pose a threat for damaging winds with any forced convection.

..Marsh.. 05/11/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 120701
SWODY3
SPC AC 120700

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible
on Thursday from parts of north-central Oklahoma into central Kansas
and far southern Nebraska.

...North-central Oklahoma/Central Kansas/Far Southern Nebraska...
At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge will move eastward into the Ozarks
and mid to upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as a shortwave
trough passes through the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough over the
southern and central Plains, low-level moisture advection will take
place. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the 60s F
over much of Oklahoma northward into central and northern Kansas.
Along this corridor, moderate instability is expected to develop by
afternoon with MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In
addition to the instability, forecast soundings have a capping
inversion in the 850 and 700 mb layer. In the early evening,
large-scale ascent will move across the central Plains, helping to
weaken the cap for a few hours. If convective initiation can take
place, an isolated severe storm would be possible. 0-6 km shear in
the 30 to 40 knot range along with steep mid-level lapse rates could
be enough for hail and isolated severe wind gusts.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 121931
SWODY3
SPC AC 121929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday over
the central Great Plains. Large to very large hail and severe gusts
will likely be the primary severe hazards.

...Central Great Plains into the lower MO Valley...
Weak elevated showers/storms will likely be ongoing over eastern KS
Thursday morning owing to warm advection as low-level southerly flow strengthens. A mid-level disturbance is forecast to move from the
CO Front Range to the mid MS Valley during the period invoking
poleward moisture transport via southerly flow. Model guidance
suggests surface dewpoints to rise into the 60s deg F in an narrow
tongue along and east of I-35 in OK and I-135 in central KS. An
elevated mixed layer featuring steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (in
excess of 8 deg C/km) will contribute towards maintaining a cap
through mid afternoon as a moderately to locally very unstable
airmass develops east of a dryline. Strong heating and large-scale
ascent associated with the eastward-migrating impulse will act to
erode convective inhibition. Isolated to widely scattered storms
are possible during the 21-00 UTC period. Forecast soundings favor
supercells with mainly a risk for large to very large hail. Severe
gusts are also possible and would likely focus if small clustering
can occur during the early evening as this activity moves east
towards the lower MO Valley. A south-southwesterly LLJ is forecast
to slightly veer and favor strengthening warm-air advection Thursday
night into the lower MO Valley, perhaps facilitating a lingering
risk for wind/hail and/or additional elevated thunderstorms posing
an overnight hail threat.

..Smith.. 05/12/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 130730
SWODY3
SPC AC 130729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible
on Friday in parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri and mid Mississippi
Valleys...
Mid-level flow will be westerly over the central U.S. on Friday.
Within the flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move
across the central Plains. At the surface, low-level moisture
advection will result in a pocket of moist air from the central
Plains eastward into the lower Missouri Valley, where surface
dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s F. Within this
moist airmass, moderate instability is expected to be in place by
afternoon. A dryline is forecast to develop on the western edge of
the low-level moisture, from north-central Oklahoma into central
Kansas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to
the east of the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening.
Additional storms are expected to form further east into eastern
Kansas and Missouri, along the northern edge of a low-level jet.

Late Friday afternoon, forecast soundings in the Kansas City area
show a favorable thermodynamic environment for severe storms. MLCAPE
is forecast to be in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 700-500 mb
lapse rates near 8 C/km. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be
in the 30 to 35 knot range. This environment will be favorable for
supercells with large hail and wind damage. An isolated severe
threat may also develop eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestward into north-central Oklahoma. Instability is expected
to be somewhat weaker in these two areas, which should keep any
severe threat more isolated and marginal.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 131928
SWODY3
SPC AC 131927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible
on Friday in parts of the Midwest, central Plains and lower Missouri
Valley.

...Lower Missouri Valley and Midwest...
Multiple foci for severe storm development are evident in
medium-range model guidance, with considerable variance in the
positioning of these features, Friday and Friday night. A cluster of
storms may be ongoing in the morning hours over the Midwest or
MO/central MS Valleys, further complicating the severe risk. A cold
front is forecast to sag southward across the Midwest and central
Plains into parts of southern NE and northeastern CO. Continued
low-level moisture advection along and north of the boundary will
likely result in adequate destabilization for thunderstorms. While
displaced from the stronger flow aloft near a northern stream upper
trough, enough mid-level flow is evident on area model soundings to
support supercells and organized clusters, some of which may be
behind the front. Hail and damaging gusts are possible with one or
more clusters of strong to severe storms.

Farther south, into KS and western MO, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints
are likely to be in place ahead of northern portions of a dryline
and surface trough. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to
the east of the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening
with steep mid-level lapse rates and MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg
range. Additional storms are expected to form further east along the
northern edge of the low-level jet. Located between the primary
upper troughs, mid-level flow is weaker here (20-30 kt at 500 mb),
suggesting a messy storm mode, but with some supercell potential.
Hail and damaging gusts are possible with any supercells or clusters
that develop/spread eastward into the evening and overnight.

...Central and southern High Plains...
Near the dryline and lee low, from eastern CO/western KS into
western OK, deep mixing and ascent from the approach of the southern
stream shortwave trough could support isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorm development Friday afternoon. Uncertainty on moisture
depth is high, with some guidance showing modest buoyancy atop a
deeply mixed boundary layer. Should this occur, weak 500 mb winds
could allow for a few multicell clusters with damaging gusts across
the central and southern Plains.

..Lyons.. 05/13/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 140739
SWODY3
SPC AC 140738

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and
tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across
parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.
Hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado will be
possible.

...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
An upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the western U.S.
on Saturday, as mid-level flow becomes southwesterly over the
central states. At the surface, a low will deepen in the central
High Plains, as a moist airmass remains in place from the southern
and central Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. A shortwave
trough is forecast to move into the central High Plains Saturday
afternoon. Ahead of the trough, thunderstorms are expected to form
in far eastern Colorado during the mid to late afternoon. These
storms are forecast to expand in coverage and move eastward across
the central Plains in the late afternoon and early evening, where
severe storm development is expected.

By late afternoon, an axis of moderate to strong instability is
forecast from west-central Kansas east-northeastward across northern
Kansas, southeast Nebraska into far northwestern Missouri. Forecast
soundings near this axis of instability in far northern Kansas at
00Z, have MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear
around 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
environment will be favorable for supercells with large to very
large hail. The more intense supercell updrafts may be capable of
hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter. By early evening, a 40 to 50
knot low-level jet is forecast to develop from northwest Oklahoma
into southern Kansas. At this time, NAM forecast soundings increase
0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range
across parts of northern Kansas. However, other model solutions keep
this low-level jet further south in the early evening, suggesting
there is uncertainty concerning severe threat coverage and
magnitude. At this time, there does appears to be potential for
tornadoes, and possibly a strong tornado. This would be the case if
the more aggressive solutions with the low-level jet pan out. Severe
wind gusts will also be possible with supercells.

At this point, the greatest potential for a significant large hail
and a strong tornado threat is forecast from central and northern
Kansas into far southern Nebraska. However, there is some
uncertainty concerning the exact scenario that will place out.
During the evening, the current thinking is that a severe convective
cluster will move east-northeastward from the central Plains into
the lower to mid Missouri Valley, where large hail and severe wind
gusts will be possible.

...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...
West to west-southwest mid-level flow will be in place from the
Great Lakes southward into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. A subtle
shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture
advection will take place, with surface dewpoints likely increasing
into the mid 60s F over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the late
afternoon along the leading edge of the shortwave trough, with
storms moving eastward across the region during the evening.
Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over an unstable airmass with
steep lapse rates. This should support an isolated severe threat
with damaging wind gusts and hail possible.

..Broyles.. 05/14/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 140746
SWODY3
SPC AC 140745

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR WORDING

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and
tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across
parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.
Hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado will be
possible.

...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
An upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the western U.S.
on Saturday, as mid-level flow becomes southwesterly over the
central states. At the surface, a low will deepen in the central
High Plains, as a moist airmass remains in place from the southern
and central Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. A shortwave
trough is forecast to move into the central High Plains Saturday
afternoon. Ahead of the trough, thunderstorms are expected to form
in far eastern Colorado during the mid to late afternoon. These
storms are forecast to expand in coverage and move eastward across
the central Plains in the late afternoon and early evening, where
severe storm development will be possible.

By late afternoon, an axis of moderate to strong instability is
forecast from west-central Kansas east-northeastward across northern
Kansas, southeast Nebraska into far northwestern Missouri. Forecast
soundings near this axis of instability in far northern Kansas at
00Z, have MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear
around 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
environment will be favorable for supercells with large to very
large hail. The more intense supercell updrafts may be capable of
hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter. By early evening, a 40 to 50
knot low-level jet is forecast to develop from northwest Oklahoma
into southern Kansas. At this time, NAM forecast soundings increase
0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range
across parts of northern Kansas. However, other model solutions keep
this low-level jet further south in the early evening, suggesting
there is uncertainty concerning severe threat coverage and
magnitude. At this time, there does appears to be potential for
tornadoes, and possibly a strong tornado. This would be the case if
the more aggressive solutions with the low-level jet pan out. Severe
wind gusts will also be possible with supercells. During the
evening, the current thinking is that a severe convective cluster
will move east-northeastward from the central Plains into the lower
to mid Missouri Valley, where large hail and severe wind gusts will
be possible.

...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...
West to west-southwest mid-level flow will be in place from the
Great Lakes southward into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. A subtle
shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture
advection will take place, with surface dewpoints likely increasing
into the mid 60s F over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the late
afternoon along the leading edge of the shortwave trough, with
storms moving eastward across the region during the evening.
Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over an unstable airmass with
steep lapse rates. This should support an isolated severe threat
with damaging wind gusts and hail possible.

..Broyles.. 05/14/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 141929
SWODY3
SPC AC 141928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and
tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across
parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.
Hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado will be
possible.

...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will gradually become established over the
western CONUS over the next 72 hours. As this occurs, southwesterly
mid-level flow will become more prominent across the central
Rockies/Plains, resulting in steady deepening of a lee trough
through Saturday. Persistent southerly flow through the southern and
central Plains should establish a broad warm sector across the
Plains, bounded to the west by a dryline and to the north by a
diffuse warm frontal zone. Medium and long-range guidance depicts an
embedded low-amplitude upper disturbance propagating into the Plains
late Saturday afternoon, which will augment ascent and promote
thunderstorm development in proximity to a deepening lee cyclone
across parts of eastern CO, northwest KS, and western NE. Additional
strong to severe thunderstorm chances are expected along the dryline
across southwest KS into western OK and northwest TX, as well as
along a warm frontal zone across portions of the Midwest/OH Valley
regions.

...Central Plains...
A deepening surface low will likely become apparent across the
central High Plains ahead of the upper-level disturbance. Convective
initiation is anticipated by late afternoon in proximity to the
surface low and along the warm front where MLCAPE values will likely
exceed 2000 J/kg. Elongated hodographs depicted by most forecast
guidance suggests organized supercells will be possible, and could
pose a threat for very large hail and tornadoes. With time, upscale
growth and an increasing severe wind threat is anticipated as storms
propagate along the frontal zone. Recent guidance has shown fairly
good agreement in a northward shift of the most volatile convective
environment from central KS northwestward into northwest KS/central
NE. Similarly, long-range CAM guidance also depicts the best
convective signal across this region. Severe probabilities were
adjusted northward to reflect this trend.

...Western Oklahoma/northwest Texas...
Capping at the base of an EML will likely suppress convective
development along most the dryline across western OK and northwest
TX. However, strong diurnal heating coupled with southerly flow
through the lowest 2-3 km should promote eroding inhibition and
considerable parcel residence time within the dryline circulation.
While medium-range ensemble QPF signal is very limited, long-range
CAM guidance depicts at least some signal for deep convection.
Thunderstorms that can become sustained along the dryline will
likely pose a threat for large hail and severe winds given around 30
knots of effective bulk shear.

...Midwest/OH Valleys...
A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is expected to spread east
towards the Midwest through the day. The inhibiting influence of
low-level warming near the base of the EML will be offset to some
degree by persistent low-level theta-e advection. Consequently,
isolated to widely scattered convection appears probable across
central IL into portions of the OH Valley. MUCAPE values on the
order of 1000-2000 J/kg should support deep convection, and
effective bulk shear values near 30 knots within the warm frontal
zone may allow for organized convection with an attendant threat for
severe hail and wind.

..Moore.. 05/14/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 150732
SWODY3
SPC AC 150731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be likely Sunday from portions of the central and
southern High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells capable of
all hazards will be possible before upscale growth and an emerging
damaging wind risk continues into the evening.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will begin to eject across the Intermountain
West on D3/Sunday with a more subtle shortwave trough moving across
the central Plains. As a result, deepening low pressure will develop
across eastern Colorado/western Kansas with strengthening southerly
flow and warm moist advection south of a warm front lifting
northward into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Early in the
period, elevated storms will likely be ongoing across portions of
Iowa into southern Minnesota. Scattered severe storms capable of all
hazards will be expected to develop near the warm front/low across
eastern Colorado into Nebraska and across southern South Dakota
continuing into portions of the upper-Midwest along the cold front
through the evening. A more isolated and conditional threat for
severe storms will extend southward along the dryline from western
Kansas into western Oklahoma.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Early day elevated convection is expected to move across portions of
Iowa into the upper-Midwest. This will pose some risk for severe
hail through the morning. Across the central Plains, strong daytime
heating is expected to yield moderate to strong instability across
much of the central Plains. This in combination with strong deep
layer shear suggests a rather volatile environment, particularly
across central Nebraska into southern South Dakota/northwestern
Iowa. Guidance suggests that thunderstorms will develop across
eastern Colorado into Nebraska by the afternoon. Initial
thunderstorm development will likely be supercellular and capable of
all hazards including large to very large hail, damaging wind, and
tornadoes. As the front sags southward through the evening, eventual
upscale growth into a squall line is expected by the evening. A
strong 50 kt low-level jet will ramp up into the evening, which may
support a continuing potential for tornadoes, some of which may be
strong.

...Western Kansas into western Oklahoma...
A more conditional threat may extend southward along the dryline
into western Kansas and western Oklahoma. Guidance suggests some
signal for isolated supercells to develop along and east of the
dryline Sunday afternoon. The environment here will conditionally
favor large to very large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado
or two with the strengthening low-level jet in the evening.

..Thornton.. 05/15/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 151930
SWODY3
SPC AC 151929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from
portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells
with very large hail and tornadoes are possible, before upscale
storm growth leads to an increase in the wind damage threat.

...Synopsis...
The primary midlevel trough over the northern Great Basin Sunday
morning will progress to the Four Corners by Monday morning. A
subtle, lead shortwave trough (now over northern CA) will eject
northeastward during the day from NM to western KS/central NE, and
it will reach MN by early Monday. A weak reflection of the initial
lee cyclone will likewise move north-northeastward across NE to MN,
along a pre-existing baroclinic zone. The boundary layer will
consist mostly of roughly mid 60s dewpoints east of the dryline and
south of the warm front Sunday, while the fully modified (maritime
tropical) air mass will return to TX through Sunday night.

...NE to MN...
The elevated remnants of overnight convection across NE/IA, and an
associated MCV, should move northeastward toward the upper MS Valley
and weaken. In the wake of the early convection, surface heating in
cloud breaks will contribute to destabilization and storm
development will become probable by Sunday afternoon/evening along
the stalled front in NE, in advance of the weak surface cyclone and subtle/ejecting midlevel trough. Mesoscale details are fairly
uncertain this far in advance. Still, the forecast environment
appears favorable for initial supercells with very large hail and
tornadoes, and some increase in the threat for damaging winds as
convection grows upscale along the front and spreads northeastward
into southeast SD, northwest IA and southwest MN through Sunday
night.

...Western KS to TX Panhandle dryline...
A relatively warm elevated mixed layer and no obvious forcing for
ascent both suggest that storm initiation will rely on sufficiently
deep mixing along the dryline, and that storm formation is very much
in question. If a storm or two forms late afternoon/evening before
the dryline retreats overnight, there be a conditional threat for
supercells with large hail.

..Thompson.. 05/15/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 160737
SWODY3
SPC AC 160736

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous strong thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a
cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the
central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards
(including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will be
possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska.

...Synopsis...
On Monday, the western trough will take on a negative tilt before
ejecting across the central Plains, with strong southwesterly flow
aloft overspreading the region. As a result, a strong surface low
will development across western Kansas. A surface cold front will
extend northward to a secondary surface low across the upper
Midwest. A dryline will extend southward across portions of western
Kansas into western Oklahoma. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and ahead of the cold front and further south along
the dryline Monday afternoon and evening from Nebraska into central
Kansas.

...Central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska...
A volatile environment is expected to be in place ahead of the
dryline across central Kansas Monday afternoon, with moderate to
strong instability, strong deep layer shear, and steep low to
mid-level lapse rates. This will favor supercells as the primary
mode with developing thunderstorms along the dryline in the
afternoon, with potential for large to very large hail (some 2-4
inch). Through the afternoon and evening, a 40-50 kt southerly low
level jet will shift into central Kansas with large clockwise
enhancement of low-level hodographs. Should the mode be able to
remain discrete supercells, strong to intense tornadoes will be
possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. This in
combination with potential for very large hail may warrant higher
probabilities as mesoscale details become clearer.

As the front shifts southward through time, upscale growth will be
favored with increasing probabilities for damaging winds.

...Iowa into Wisconsin and the Great Lakes Region...
Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected further north
along the front into Iowa/Wisconsin and north into the Great Lakes
Region. Early day convection may be ongoing at the start of the
period within these regions, which may limit how much
destabilization can occur before the afternoon. Nonetheless,
guidance suggests potential for damaging wind and perhaps a few
instances of severe hail with storms along the front Monday
afternoon and evening.

...Western Oklahoma into northern Texas...
Forcing for ascent will be weaker across the dryline into western
Oklahoma and northern Texas. Guidance does suggest that a few
isolated supercells could develop near the dryline, with potential
for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado.
Given the strong flow aloft and better large scale ascent will
reside further north in Kansas, mode may quickly become messy with
uncertainty in overall coverage at this time.

..Thornton.. 05/16/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 161932
SWODY3
SPC AC 161931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...PARTS OF
IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous strong thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a
cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the
central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards
(including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will be
possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough is forecast to extend from MT to the Four Corners
Monday morning. An upper shortwave trough emanating from the base of
the larger-scale western U.S. trough is forecast to lift northeast
across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest through the period.
As this occurs, a belt of strong southwesterly midlevel flow will
overspread OK/KS into IA and the Great Lakes vicinity. Beneath
enhanced southwesterly deep layer flow, rich Gulf moisture will
spread north/northeast from the southern Plains into the Mid-MS
Valley and Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a cold front will reside from the
Upper MS Valley to a surface low over central KS during the
afternoon. A dryline will extend southward from the KS surface low
into western OK/west-central TX. A volatile environment is expected
across parts of the warm sector, particularly across KS into IA,
where significant all-hazards severe storms are expected.

...Central KS into southeast NE/southwest IA/northwest MO...

Upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints are forecast ahead of the dryline
and cold front. This area should remain mostly free from convective contamination from any continuing convection from late in the Day
2/Sunday period. Strong heating and very steep midlevel lapse rates
will contribute to strong destabilization. Supercell wind profiles
are expected, with backed low-level winds veering with height, while
also increasing in speed. Southerly 850-700 mb flow is forecast to
strengthen in the 21-00z time frame as large-scale ascent also
increases. This will allow for enlarged low-level hodograph
curvature and increasing 0-1 km SRH. Robust convection will develop
within the warm sector and supercell capable of very large hail (2-4
inch diameter), strong to intense tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts
will be possible.

With time, convection will likely grow upscale as the surface cold
front begins to develop southeast through the evening/nighttime
hours.

...Central IA into portions of IL/WI/IN/Lower MI...

Uncertainty is greater with northeast extent on Monday. Ongoing
convection and cloud cover is possible across parts of IA into WI
Monday morning. Regardless, a moist airmass will be in place.
Depending on location and extent of morning convection, airmass
recovery is possible. Furthermore, downstream destabilization into
parts of northern IL/IN and Lower MI seems more likely. This could
result in re-intensification of any morning convection as it spreads
east. While convective evolution remains uncertain, a damaging wind
and hail risk appears possible.

...OK/TX...

A more conditional severe risk exists further south across OK/TX.
Large-scale ascent will remain weaker further south. However, strong instability within the very moist warm sector will exist. Deep layer
flow will be somewhat less compared to further north, but still
sufficient for supercells. If storms can develop, a risk for large
to very large hail will exist.

..Leitman.. 05/16/2026

$$

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