ACUS03 KWNS 010730
SWODY3
SPC AC 010729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon and into the
evening hours across Iowa southward into the southern Plains. Very
large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible.

...Synopsis...
Medium and long-range guidance continue to show reasonably good
alignment in the progression of an upper wave into the central CONUS
through the day Friday into early Saturday. Ahead of this wave,
robust cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central Plains along a
residual baroclinic zone that should be draped from the Plains
eastward into the OH Valley in the wake of a leading system on
Wed/Thu. Northward advection of seasonally rich low-level moisture
(dewpoints in the low 60s) ahead of the intensifying low and
attendant cold front will establish a fairly broad warm sector from
the Midwest southward into the southern Plains. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will likely develop along and ahead of the cold front
through late afternoon and early evening with a threat for all
convective hazards.

...Iowa/northern Missouri...
The most robust convective environment will likely emerge across
northern MO into southern and central IA by late Friday afternoon.
Here, strong moisture return behind a northward lifting warm front
should support MLCAPE values upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg. Strong
synoptic ascent ahead of the surface low and ejecting upper trough
will erode warm sector inhibition, and closer proximity to the upper
jet will allow for 35-45 knot effective bulk shear values nearly
orthogonal to the approaching cold front. This should favor
initially discrete cells capable of large hail as well as tornadoes
given forecast effective SRH values on the order of 200-300 m2/s2.
With time, strong frontal forcing should promote upscale growth with
an increase in the severe wind threat, though some extended-range
CAM guidance hints a line-preceding supercells within the weakly
capped warm sector (though confidence in this scenario is low).
Regardless, convection traversing the best CAPE/shear parameter
space in the region should yield a higher potential for severe
thunderstorms, warranting the introduction of 30% risk
probabilities.

...Kansas into Oklahoma...
Further south/southwest, rapid upscale growth is anticipated along a southeastward pushing cold front by late afternoon from eastern KS
into northern OK. Storm motions and deep-layer flow more parallel to
the initiating boundary may result in initially slow southeastward
propagation of the convective line, though more substantial
progression of the line is likely by early evening as the nocturnal
jet slowly strengthens. Regardless, a severe wind threat appears
likely with this activity.

...Southwest Oklahoma into Western Texas...
A dryline will likely be draped from western OK southward into
western TX. Although forcing for ascent will be weak with southward
extent, weak capping and ample diurnal heating should support at
least isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon. While
low-level wind shear may be somewhat marginal, forecast soundings
depict elongated hodographs favorable for splitting supercells
capable of producing large to very large hail.

..Moore.. 04/01/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 011137
SWODY3
SPC AC 011136

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT THUNDER LINE ORIENTATION

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon and into the
evening hours across Iowa southward into the southern Plains. Very
large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible.

...Synopsis...
Medium and long-range guidance continue to show reasonably good
alignment in the progression of an upper wave into the central CONUS
through the day Friday into early Saturday. Ahead of this wave,
robust cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central Plains along a
residual baroclinic zone that should be draped from the Plains
eastward into the OH Valley in the wake of a leading system on
Wed/Thu. Northward advection of seasonally rich low-level moisture
(dewpoints in the low 60s) ahead of the intensifying low and
attendant cold front will establish a fairly broad warm sector from
the Midwest southward into the southern Plains. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will likely develop along and ahead of the cold front
through late afternoon and early evening with a threat for all
convective hazards.

...Iowa/northern Missouri...
The most robust convective environment will likely emerge across
northern MO into southern and central IA by late Friday afternoon.
Here, strong moisture return behind a northward lifting warm front
should support MLCAPE values upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg. Strong
synoptic ascent ahead of the surface low and ejecting upper trough
will erode warm sector inhibition, and closer proximity to the upper
jet will allow for 35-45 knot effective bulk shear values nearly
orthogonal to the approaching cold front. This should favor
initially discrete cells capable of large hail as well as tornadoes
given forecast effective SRH values on the order of 200-300 m2/s2.
With time, strong frontal forcing should promote upscale growth with
an increase in the severe wind threat, though some extended-range
CAM guidance hints a line-preceding supercells within the weakly
capped warm sector (though confidence in this scenario is low).
Regardless, convection traversing the best CAPE/shear parameter
space in the region should yield a higher potential for severe
thunderstorms, warranting the introduction of 30% risk
probabilities.

...Kansas into Oklahoma...
Further south/southwest, rapid upscale growth is anticipated along a southeastward pushing cold front by late afternoon from eastern KS
into northern OK. Storm motions and deep-layer flow more parallel to
the initiating boundary may result in initially slow southeastward
propagation of the convective line, though more substantial
progression of the line is likely by early evening as the nocturnal
jet slowly strengthens. Regardless, a severe wind threat appears
likely with this activity.

...Southwest Oklahoma into Western Texas...
A dryline will likely be draped from western OK southward into
western TX. Although forcing for ascent will be weak with southward
extent, weak capping and ample diurnal heating should support at
least isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon. While
low-level wind shear may be somewhat marginal, forecast soundings
depict elongated hodographs favorable for splitting supercells
capable of producing large to very large hail.

..Moore.. 04/01/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 011927
SWODY3
SPC AC 011926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
An extensive squall line may develop across parts of the east
central Great Plains late Friday afternoon, and perhaps become
capable of producing widespread strong to severe wind gusts and a
risk for tornadoes while advancing toward to the middle Mississippi
Valley and southeastern Great Plains through Friday evening.

...Discussion...
While an initial surface cyclone weakens northeast of the Great
Lakes region through the St. Lawrence Valley during the day Friday,
a trailing cold front is forecast to advance into the Northeast
while stalling near/just south of the Great Lakes region into the
middle Mississippi Valley vicinity, ahead of a progressive
large-scale mid/upper trough advancing east of the Rockies. It
appears that the intersection of this front and a Pacific front
advancing east of the southern Rockies may become the focus for a
modest surface cyclone, which guidance generally suggests will
weaken while migrating east-northeast of the central Great Plains
and occluding late Friday through Friday night.

It appears that low-level moisture return ahead of the Pacific cold
front and dryline will contribute to a corridor of moderate
boundary-layer CAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg across parts of
northwest Texas through eastern Kansas and western Missouri by
Friday afternoon, with similar destabilization possible along the
stalled frontal zone near the Missouri/Iowa border, perhaps into
parts of the lower Ohio Valley.

Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent downstream of the large-scale
trough, their appears a considerable signal in latest model output
that the evolution of a fairly extensive east-southeastward
advancing squall line is possible ahead of the Pacific cold front
late Friday afternoon and evening. After an initial period with
potential for severe hail, widespread strong to severe wind gusts
and a few embedded tornadoes associated with developing
meso-vortices will become the primary threats as convection grows
upscale and forward propagates.

It is possible that the surface low/frontal intersection near the
Missouri/Iowa border vicinity could become a potential focus for
higher severe probabilities. However, given initially cool/stable
air to the north of this front, and the weakening nature of the
surface cyclone, this remains unclear. Higher severe weather
probabilities may need to be focused ahead of the Pacific front
across parts of western into central Missouri, central into eastern
Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas in later outlook updates for this
period.

..Kerr.. 04/01/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 020732
SWODY3
SPC AC 020730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms, including a few strong to severe
thunderstorms, are expected across portions of the upper Ohio River
Valley and across the Texas Gulf Coast into the southern Mississippi
River Valley.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level wave (currently noted in water-vapor imagery over the
Pacific Northwest) is forecast to progress from the central Plains
into the Great Lakes region late Friday through early Sunday. As
this occurs, an attendant surface low will migrate northeast,
gradually weakening through Saturday evening. A trailing cold front
will push from the Midwest and southern Plains east/southeastward
into the upper OH Valley and northwestern Gulf. Moisture advection
ahead of the front, coupled with diurnal heating, should support
scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon and early
evening hours. A few strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible
across the upper OH Valley and across the TX Gulf Coast into the
lower MS Valley where deep-layer shear may support organized
convection.

...Upper OH Valley...
Lingering showers and convection will likely be ongoing across the
Midwest/OH Valley by 12 UTC Saturday along the advancing cold front.
This initial activity will likely remain sub-severe through the
morning hours. Some degree of re-intensification and/or pre-frontal
development is expected through early/mid-afternoon as diurnal
heating and moisture advection support increasing buoyancy and
diminish inhibition. 30-40 knot flow through the 1-6 km layer will
likely support loosely organized convection capable of strong to
severe wind gusts, and perhaps sporadic hail. Given the weakening of
the synoptic low and broad-scale ascent, overall coverage of intense
convection may be limited. However, higher risk probabilities may be
warranted if guidance trends towards a greater coverage of robust
convective clusters and/or line segments.

...Lower MS River Valley into the TX Gulf Coast...
Ongoing convection is likely across east TX early Saturday ahead of
the southeastward moving cold front. Some degree of
re-intensification of this activity is anticipated as it migrates
east towards the MS River where richer low-level moisture will
support higher buoyancy (MLCAPE values upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg).
Displacement from the primary upper wave to the north will yield
marginal deep-layer wind shear values (generally around 25 knots),
but this should be sufficient for a few organized storms along the
front through the late afternoon hours with an attendant sporadic
hail/wind risk. Based on latest CAM guidance, the greatest severe
risk will likely emerge across the MS Valley into northern LA,
though some solutions hint that robust convection may develop as far
southwest as the TX Gulf Coast.

..Moore.. 04/02/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 021927
SWODY3
SPC AC 021925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND FROM THE
MID-SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Occasional wind damage will be possible with storms along and in
advance of a cold front across the upper Ohio Valley and from
southeast Texas into the Mid-South.

...Upper OH Valley and vicinity...
A surface cold front will move eastward from the MS Valley into the
OH Valley, to the south of a cyclone progressing into ON/QC and in
advance of an associated midlevel trough. The typical uncertainties
surround lingering clouds/rain on the west edge of the outlook area,
but a gradual increase in low-level moisture and surface heating in
cloud breaks will support weak buoyancy in advance of the cold front
Saturday afternoon/evening. Likewise, an increase in low-midlevel
flow with the approaching midlevel trough will support the potential
for some wind damage with bands of convection along/ahead of the
front. The main threat will be during the afternoon/evening, with a
gradual weakening of convection expected overnight.

...Southeast TX to the Mid-South...
Widespread convection is expected along a cold front late Friday
into early Saturday, and this front will continue southeastward
through the day. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s and
surface heating in cloud breaks ahead of the remnant morning
convection will contribute to moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg) in the warm sector. Wind profiles will be a little more
favorable for sustained storms across the northern part of the MRGL
area, closer to the southern fringe of the stronger midlevel
westerly flow. The forecast pattern best supports isolated wind
damage as the primary concern given the modest vertical shear and
midlevel lapse rates, though the marginal nature of the scenario and
likely influences of morning convection suggest additional
refinements are likely in later updates.

..Thompson.. 04/02/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 030714
SWODY3
SPC AC 030713

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND FAR SOUTHERN
MARYLAND...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Sunday from
eastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia and far southern
Maryland.

...Eastern North Carolina/Far Southeast Virginia/Far Southern
Maryland...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys on Sunday, as a cold front advances southeastward through
the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s F. Weak instability will
develop ahead of the front during the day, with thunderstorms
forming and moving eastward toward the Atlantic Coast. A marginal
severe threat may develop across parts of eastern North Carolina,
far southeast Virginia and far southern Maryland, where deep-layer
shear may be strong enough for multicells with isolated severe
gusts. The threat should be maximized in the mid to late afternoon
when low-level lapse rates will be steepest.

..Broyles.. 04/03/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 031931
SWODY3
SPC AC 031930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the southern Mid Atlantic
Coast vicinity Sunday, accompanied by at least some risk for
damaging wind gusts.

...Discussion...
Latest model output suggests that a broad, deep occluded surface
cyclone may deepen at least a bit further while migrating
east-northeastward across Quebec during this period. Renewed
cyclogenesis appears possible across the Canadian Maritimes by
Sunday evening, with a trailing cold front advancing offshore of the
northern through middle Atlantic coast by early Monday, while
slowing/stalling across parts of northern Florida.

Pre-frontal boundary-layer destabilization, where deep-layer mean
flow and shear appears sufficient to support convective
organization, is forecast to remain weak, due to generally weak
tropospheric lapse rates. It appears that this may become focused
along lee surface troughing across and east of the Carolina
Piedmont, perhaps as far north as a developing low/frontal wave
across south central Virginia into the southern Delmarva Peninsula
by late Sunday afternoon.

Forcing for ascent, downstream of a short wave impulse progressing
through the base of approaching larger-scale mid-level troughing, is
likely to aid convective development, with sheared, 30-50 kt south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer contributing
convective organization with potential to produce damaging wind
gusts. A narrow broken squall line may evolve, with perhaps
embedded supercell structures which could also pose the risk for a
tornado or two while spreading toward coastal areas by early Sunday
evening.

..Kerr.. 04/03/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 040724
SWODY3
SPC AC 040723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday in
south-central Florida and over parts of the Desert Southwest, but no
severe threat is forecast.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level jet streak will
move across the Great Lakes on Monday, as a cold front advances
southward into northern Florida. To the south of the front,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to form within a moist airmass
over the southern and central Florida Peninsula during the
afternoon. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be near or below 20
knots, suggesting the storms will remain below severe limits.
Additional thunderstorms are expected to form in the Desert
Southwest. No severe threat is forecast across the continental U.S.
Monday and Monday night.

..Broyles.. 04/04/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 041904
SWODY3
SPC AC 041902

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday across
the Florida Peninsula and over parts of the Desert Southwest, but no
severe threat is forecast.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will persist across the eastern U.S. on Monday. At
the surface, a cold front draped across northern FL will sag
southward. A seasonally warm/moist airmass ahead of the front will
support weak destabilization. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop during the afternoon across the FL
Peninsula. Weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates will preclude
severe thunderstorm potential. Additional isolated weak
thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southwest as an
upper shortwave trough traverses the region.

..Leitman.. 04/04/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 050718
SWODY3
SPC AC 050716

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across
parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies/Four
Corners area. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move eastward to near the Mid-Atlantic
Seaboard on Tuesday, as a cold front advances southward across the
Florida Peninsula. A moist airmass will reside over parts of
southern and central Florida on Tuesday, with scattered thunderstorm development possible as surface temperatures warm. Additional
thunderstorms will be likely from the Four Corners area eastward
into the southern Rockies in the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave
trough passes through. No severe threat is expected across the
continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.

..Broyles.. 04/05/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 051241
SWODY3
SPC AC 051239

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR TSTM LINE

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across
parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies/Four
Corners area. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move eastward to near the Mid-Atlantic
Seaboard on Tuesday, as a cold front advances southward across the
Florida Peninsula. A moist airmass will reside over parts of
southern and central Florida on Tuesday, with scattered thunderstorm development possible as surface temperatures warm. Additional
thunderstorms will be likely from the Four Corners area eastward
into the southern Rockies in the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave
trough passes through. No severe threat is expected across the
continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.

..Broyles.. 04/05/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 051834
SWODY3
SPC AC 051833

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across
parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies/Four
Corners area. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...

Several upper shortwave troughs will move across the U.S. on
Tuesday. A pair of troughs will migrate across the eastern U.S. and
Florida. Meanwhile a weak shortwave trough will move across the
southern Rockies and Plains while another moves over the northern
Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will encompass much of the
eastern half of the CONUS while a cold front sags south across
central/southern FL. Isolated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the
cold front across the FL Peninsula. A dry/stable airmass across much
of the rest of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm activity, though
a few storms are possible as the shortwave upper trough moves across
the Four Corners and southern Rockies vicinity. Severe storms are
not expected.

..Leitman.. 04/05/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 060729
SWODY3
SPC AC 060728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of
the central Plains Wednesday night.

...Central Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central
U.S. on Wednesday, as low-level moisture advection takes place in
the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a cold front from
will advance southward into the central Plains. By Wednesday
evening, the front is forecast to stall over northern Kansas, with
scattered thunderstorms developing near and to the northern
boundary. NAM forecast soundings in the vicinity of the front late
Wednesday evening have a low-level temperature inversion with MUCAPE
near 1200 J/kg. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast around 8 C/km
with effective shear near 40 knots. This environment should support
a threat for isolated large hail with elevated supercells. The
threat may continue into the overnight period, as a low-level jet
strengthens.

..Broyles.. 04/06/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 061909
SWODY3
SPC AC 061908

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of
the central Plains Wednesday evening.

...Central Plains...

A compact upper trough/low will move from the northern Plains to the
Great Lakes on Wednesday. At the surface, low pressure will shift
from southern Manitoba to near James Bay in Ontario. A trailing cold
front will develop southeast across the Upper Midwest and central
Plains. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited due to
persistent surface high pressure across the East, cutting off
stronger Gulf moisture return. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft
(around -15 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and
weak instability in a corridor along/just ahead of the cold front
across the central Plains.

Isolated thunderstorms are forecast near the front during the
evening. Vertical shear will be somewhat weak through 6 km, but
effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt is evident in forecast
soundings. Furthermore, strong west/northwesterly flow through the
top half of the cloud-bearing layer will result in
lengthened/straight hodographs. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer is
also forecast. This environment marginally supports a few strong to
severe storms capable of producing locally strong gusts, and perhaps
marginally severe hail if updrafts can be sustained.

..Leitman.. 04/06/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 070727
SWODY3
SPC AC 070726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts is expected
to develop on Thursday in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley
westward into the central Plains. Isolated severe storms with hail
may also develop in the southern High Plains.

...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
A mid-levels, a broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place on
Thursday over much of the northern U.S., with westerly flow in the
central states. At the surface, a slow moving front is forecast to
remain over western and northern Kansas extending eastward into
northern Missouri. The front will be a focus for convection during
the afternoon and evening, with scattered thunderstorms becoming
likely. NAM forecast soundings near the front by early evening have
MUCAPE ranging from around 2500 J/kg in north-central Kansas to
around 1200 J/kg in northern Missouri. Effective shear along much of
this east-to-west corridor is forecast to be from 35 to 45 knots,
with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km. This should support a
marginal severe threat. Supercells with isolated large hail and
strong wind gusts will be possible.

...Southern High Plains...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the
Intermountain West on Thursday, as westerly mid-level flow remains
in place over the south-central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass
will be located across the southern Plains. A dryline is forecast to
develop over west Texas by Thursday afternoon. Although large-scale
ascent will remain weak, low-level convergence near the dryline may
be enough for isolated convective initiation. Model forecasts
suggest that an axis of moderate instability will be in place to the
east of the dryline by afternoon, with MLCAPE in the 1200 to 1500
J/kg range. In addition, steep mid-level lapse rates will be in
place. This should support an isolated large hail threat with any
cells that can initiate, in spite of the limited forcing.

..Broyles.. 04/07/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 071852
SWODY3
SPC AC 071852

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO KANSAS AND THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for large hail and strong wind gusts is expected
to develop on Thursday in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley
westward into KS, and southward across the southern High Plains.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper shortwave trough embedded within larger-scale troughing
across the northern U.S. will pivot eastward across the northern
Plains to the Upper Midwest on Thursday. Meanwhile, low-amplitude
upper ridging over the West will meander eastward toward the
Rockies. At the surface, a boundary will be oriented west to east
across northern KS and northern MO while a surface dryline extends south/southwest across western KS into western TX. Neutral height
tendencies across the southern Plains will preclude stronger surface cyclogenesis, but weak lee surface troughing is forecast across the
High Plains.

...Central Plains to Mid-MO Valley...

Boundary layer moisture will remain modest across the warm sector,
with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Nevertheless, steep
midlevel lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 C/km will support MUCAPE to
around 1000-1500 J/kg near the west to east surface front.
Vertically veering wind profiles, with 40-50 kt flow through much of
the cloud bearing layer will support supercell wind profiles with
effective shear greater than 40 kt. Large-scale ascent is forecast
to remain modest, with the main midlevel shortwave passing to the
north of the area. However, convergence along the boundary and
continued warm advection into the evening as a low-level jet
increases should be sufficient for scattered thunderstorm
development. Isolated large hail will be possible with this activity
from late afternoon into the evening.

...Southern High Plains...

A more conditional severe thunderstorm environment will exist
further south along the dryline across western TX toward southwest
KS. Strong heating and mixing along the boundary, and low-level
convergence may be sufficient for a few storms developing by
evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE to around
1000-1500 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, generally less
than 25 kt effective shear magnitudes. Isolated large hail will be
possible with any stronger cells that can develop and be maintained. Additionally, a well mixed boundary-layer and inverted-v sub-cloud
layer thermodynamic profiles suggest locally strong wind gusts also
may be possible.

..Leitman.. 04/07/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 080714
SWODY3
SPC AC 080713

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible
on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains eastward
into the Ozarks.

...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks...
An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the Rockies on Friday,
as mid-level flow remains westerly over the Great Plains. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across far
southern Kansas. Surface heating and low-level convergence along the
front will aid convective initiation during the afternoon. A few
small thunderstorm clusters will be possible from late afternoon
into the evening. Near the front by late afternoon, model forecasts
have MLCAPE peaking in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range, and show 0-6 km
shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. This should be enough for a
marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the
primary threats.

..Broyles.. 04/08/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 081926
SWODY3
SPC AC 081925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND TOWARD THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains
eastward into the Ozarks.

...Discussion...
On Friday, an upper trough will move from the Great Lakes into the
Northeast, with temporary upper ridging over the Plains in advance
of a large upper trough moving across the West. At the surface, high
pressure will exist over the northern Plains to upper MS Valley,
with a cold front roughly from the KS/OK border into central MO, and
extending northeastward toward the Lower Great Lakes. This front
will become nearly stationary during the day over the Plains, and
will return north overnight as warm front across KS/MO.

Beneath the upper ridge, potential will exist for scattered
thunderstorms along the frontal zone at various times of the day.
Early day storms will be possible from eastern KS into MO and
possibly northern OK, as the Thursday night activity persists into
Friday morning with the aid of a southwesterly low-level jet and
outflows. This activity could pose strong gust potential before
weakening midday.

Additional storms will be possible along the east-west front as
heating occurs to the south of it (and any outflows). Though the
large-scale pattern will not favor significant coverage of severe
storms, isolated strong to severe storms may develop as the air mass
becomes uncapped. Slow-moving severe storms producing large hail
appear most likely across the northern TX to OK Panhandles into
southern KS and northwest OK, in closer proximity to the steeper
lapse rates aloft. Overall, shear will be marginal, but a stationary
storm may briefly show supercell characteristics given the veering
winds with height, producing large hail and isolated damaging gusts.

..Jewell.. 04/08/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 090715
SWODY3
SPC AC 090714

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be
possible on Saturday across parts of west Texas and far eastern New
Mexico. A marginal severe threat will also be possible across parts
of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley.

...Southern High Plains...
Mid-level southwesterly flow will gradually strengthen across the
south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough
moves northeastward into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a
moist airmass will be in place over much of southern and central
Plains, with surface dewpoints from the mid 50s to mid 60s F. A
surface trough over far eastern New Mexico will be a focus for
convective development as surface temperatures warm during the day.
Large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough will support
scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening over much
of the southern High Plains. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1200
to 1500 J/kg range over west Texas, where 0-3 km lapse rates should
reach 7.5 and 8 C/km in the late afternoon. This will be favorable
for severe wind gusts. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be
between 30 and 40 knots over much of the southern High Plains
suggesting that supercells with large hail will be possible. Severe
threat coverage may peak in the early to mid evening, especially if
an MCS can organize over parts of west-central Texas.

...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the mid to upper
Mississippi Valley Saturday afternoon, as southwesterly mid-level
flow becomes established over much of the north-central U.S. At the
surface, a trough will deepen during the day across the central High
Plains, with moisture advection continuing over the central Plains
and Missouri Valley. Weak instability is expected to develop over
much of this airmass by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will
remain limited, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in areas
where low-level convergence and surface heating become maximized.
Model forecasts suggest that enough deep-layer shear will be in
place for a marginal severe threat, with hail and isolated severe
gusts possible.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

$$

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