FOUS30 KWBC 312359
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
759 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Wed Apr 01 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 01 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL NEAR PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

Moisture has been funneled in between a trough out West and a mid-
level ridge downstream from the Mississippi River to the eastern=20
CONUS. Various shortwaves rippling through the Westerlies have led
to thunderstorm activity from the Southern Great Lakes/Midwest into
NY. To the east...convection has been focused between an incoming=20
front and a pre- frontal outflow boundary near the southern Great=20
Lakes and southern NY. Convection appears to becoming more elevated
across portions of southern NY ahead of an incoming convective=20
wave due to an increase in CIN. A total of 2-4" of rain over the=20
past day or so has made soils more sensitive across southern and=20
central NY, so maintained the Slight Risk in those areas.=20

Upstream/to the west, cells have at times aligned across far=20
northeast IL, northern IN, into northwest OH where 1-3" of rain has
occurred thus far, with other activity from southwest Lower MI=20
attempting to add to the heavy rainfall as it dives into portions=20
of northern IN over the next several hours. This is all occurring
ahead of a shortwave currently extending from the Lower Peninsula
of MI across northern IL. Due to ongoing convection and the=20
possibility of more activity early Wednesday morning as additional
shortwaves move in aloft, made alterations to the dimensions of=20
the Slight Risk area across OH, IN, and IL, shifting it south=20
somewhat and extending it farther west. The Marginal Risk was=20
extended farther to the west- southwest due to a model signal of a=20 convective uptick across southeast KS which moves across portions=20
of MO.=20

Given the ingredients available, hourly amounts up to 1.5" with=20
additional local totals to 3" are possible from portions of the
Midwest into the Northern Mid-Atlantic states and neighboring areas
of New England into Wednesday morning.

Roth


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Apr 01 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 02 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL STRETCHING FROM
NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO IOWA...

There continues to be a slight west/northward trend with both the
surface low and overall QPF footprint as a system gets organized
across the Plains during the Day 2 period. A prominent warm-
sector will materialize from west- central Texas into Missouri
with a surface low forecast to be positioned over the Central
Plains by Wednesday afternoon. Several shortwaves will eject
northeast within and ahead of the mean trough leading to multiple
waves of rainfall from the south-central Plains into the Middle
Mississippi Valley. There is increasing agreement for the heaviest
QPF to be located from northeast Kansas into east-central Iowa,
with some training potential, leading to 1-3 inch areal average
amounts in this region, with some potential for isolated higher
amounts of 3+ inches. A slight risk remains for this region, with
a slight north and west shift in the placement consistent with
latest trends, however the area has overall been dry recently which
may limit flood/flash flood potential somewhat. Farther south, a
long axis of convection is expected from Texas to Kansas along the
cold front, but storms in this area should be more progressive and
soils are even more dry than to the north. A marginal risk
continues to be fine for this area. The marginal risk also extends
eastward into the Ohio Valley to account for early period storms
lingering along a stationary front draped across the region.

Santorelli


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 02 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 03 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
ILLINOIS, WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN...

By this period the surface low pressure/frontal system will stretch
from the Mid-Atlantic back into the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi
Valleys. Models have trended further north with the overall
precipitation shield, now covering much of the Upper Great
Lakes/Upper Midwest region. The moisture and instability along
with the upper-level support could lead to flooding concerns across
parts of the Great Lakes region. Colder air filtering across the
northern tier will allow for wintry weather concerns in the Great
Lakes to Interior Northeast thus limiting the area where flash
flooding may occur/cause impacts. Some areas could see
transitioning precipitation types throughout the event. A Marginal
Risk area is in effect for portions of southern Wisconsin, Lower
Michigan and northern Illinois where precipitation is most likely
to stay mostly/all rain.

Santorelli/Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_VMiQs-hpO5kNcWOgrHdl81tPsvYyqO1_UNGmQBYOoi6= WGHo0oSW7YaDSVazX0lpTtkyh6LfUxf91fY72M1cTHu-XpU$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_VMiQs-hpO5kNcWOgrHdl81tPsvYyqO1_UNGmQBYOoi6= WGHo0oSW7YaDSVazX0lpTtkyh6LfUxf91fY72M1cUDaRgow$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_VMiQs-hpO5kNcWOgrHdl81tPsvYyqO1_UNGmQBYOoi6= WGHo0oSW7YaDSVazX0lpTtkyh6LfUxf91fY72M1cRd6vN3A$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 010803
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Apr 01 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 02 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL STRETCHING FROM
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI...

The latest hi-res and global guidance noted a south/southwest-ward
shift of the axis of highest precipitation to central Oklahoma to
northern Missouri from its previous position of northeast Kansas
into east-central Iowa where areal averages of 1 to 3 inches are
expected. There remains a decent signal for localized 3+ inches in
the vicinity of the Topeka-Kansas City metros. The Slight Risk
area was adjusted to now cover eastern Oklahoma to northern
Missouri while the Marginal Risk was maintained from the Texas=20
Hill Country to the Mississippi/Ohio Valleys.

A prominent warm-sector will materialize from west-central Texas=20
into Missouri with a surface low forecast to be positioned over the
Central Plains by Wednesday afternoon. Several shortwaves will=20
eject northeast within and ahead of the mean trough leading to=20
multiple waves of rainfall from the south-central Plains into the=20
Middle Mississippi Valley. Some training potential, leading to 1-3
inch areal average amounts in this region, with some potential for
isolated higher amounts of 3+ inches. Farther south, a long axis=20
of convection is expected from Texas to Kansas along the cold=20
front, but storms in this area should be more progressive and soils
are even more dry than to the north.=20

Campbell/Santorelli


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 02 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 03 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IOWA, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN...

The front will span from the Mid-Atlantic back into the Ohio and=20 Mid-Mississippi Valleys during this period. Models have persisted
in placing the precipitation shield over much of the Upper Great=20
Lakes/Upper Midwest region. The moisture and instability along with
the upper-level support could lead to flooding concerns across=20
parts of the Great Lakes region. Colder air filtering across the=20
northern tier will allow for wintry weather concerns in the Great=20
Lakes to Interior Northeast thus limiting the area where flash=20
flooding may occur/cause impacts. Some areas could see=20
transitioning precipitation types throughout the event. A Marginal=20
Risk area remains in effect for portions of southern Wisconsin,=20
Lower Michigan and northern Illinois where precipitation is most=20
likely to stay mostly/all rain.

Campbell/Santorelli


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 03 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 04 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

Strong to severe thunderstorms along with embedded heavy rainfall
will track across the Southern/Central Plains into the Midwest
during this period. Moisture (with PWs over the 90th, perhaps 95th
percentile) and instability are likely to pool along and ahead of=20
the associated cold front and produce widespread convection.
Storms likely beginning in the afternoon are expected to get=20
reinforced through the evening and night hours as a low level jet=20
picks up ahead of the cold front. A Slight Risk was maintained and
adjusted to span from northern Texas to southwest Missouri.=20

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_DDOFyh5W4ZoUwsmxrFJaVyJxgPWzWk4w3A3rfsZtRry= 4JheYRZDCKIJev3IFehlIwS2UwDH3QK9tv-vGWPmr07B-dU$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_DDOFyh5W4ZoUwsmxrFJaVyJxgPWzWk4w3A3rfsZtRry= 4JheYRZDCKIJev3IFehlIwS2UwDH3QK9tv-vGWPmXsRIysk$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_DDOFyh5W4ZoUwsmxrFJaVyJxgPWzWk4w3A3rfsZtRry= 4JheYRZDCKIJev3IFehlIwS2UwDH3QK9tv-vGWPmcm2RXz8$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 011552
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1152 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Wed Apr 01 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 02 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL STRETCHING FROM
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND THE CONCHO VALLEY...

...Central to Southern Plains...

16Z Update: The previous forecast remains on track with a heavy QPF
signature focused within the warm sector of a maturing synoptic
pattern as a lee surface low migrates eastward through the Central
Plains. Latest 12z HREF neighborhood probabilities for >3" remain
very elevated (50-70%) across areas of southeast KS up into=20
west-central MO, coincident with the axis of greatest convergence=20
where a propagating cold front will couple with a budding LLJ and=20
maximized mid-level forcing to create a solid area of heavy=20
convection beginning this afternoon, carrying through the overnight
hours. Heavy rain signature remains most prominent between the
quadrant of I-35/44/49/70 with portions of both the Wichita and
Kansas City metros in mix for heavy precipitation. Backed flow for
a time across zone will allow for some training elements prior to
the precip field migrating east-northeastward as a frontal passage
finally puts an end to the setup. Overall, this setup has
relatively good continuity in guidance going back to a few days
ago, thus only minor adjustments were made to the overall SLGT risk
area with the "biggest" change being more of an extension eastward
through MO for areas along and north of I-70 to correlate with some
overlap of heavy precipitation over areas that saw heavy rainfall
the past 12hrs.=20

Kleebauer

..Previous Forecast Discussion..

The latest hi-res and global guidance noted a south/southwest-ward
shift of the axis of highest precipitation to central Oklahoma to
northern Missouri from its previous position of northeast Kansas
into east-central Iowa where areal averages of 1 to 3 inches are
expected. There remains a decent signal for localized 3+ inches in
the vicinity of the Topeka-Kansas City metros. The Slight Risk
area was adjusted to now cover eastern Oklahoma to northern
Missouri while the Marginal Risk was maintained from the Texas
Hill Country to the Mississippi/Ohio Valleys.

A prominent warm-sector will materialize from west-central Texas
into Missouri with a surface low forecast to be positioned over the
Central Plains by Wednesday afternoon. Several shortwaves will
eject northeast within and ahead of the mean trough leading to
multiple waves of rainfall from the south-central Plains into the
Middle Mississippi Valley. Some training potential, leading to 1-3
inch areal average amounts in this region, with some potential for
isolated higher amounts of 3+ inches. Farther south, a long axis
of convection is expected from Texas to Kansas along the cold
front, but storms in this area should be more progressive and soils
are even more dry than to the north.

Campbell/Santorelli


...Texas...

A SLGT risk was added across the Concho Valley in west TX as trends
for back-building convection along a well-established dryline will
open the door for heavy precipitation totals where training
convection is plausible. Recent HREF QPF trends were pretty
substantial in the last few cycles of the hi-res ensemble with the
blended mean QPF a solid 2-3" across the area between the Lower=20
Trans Pecos and points east-northeast to the northern fringes of=20
Hill Country. A lot of this setup stems from a sharpening dryline=20
that tilts back to the west-southwest as a maturing nocturnal LLJ=20
takes shape after 23z. Convergent signature within a favorably=20
unstable environment and stout 45-55kt bulk shear axis should allow
for the initiation of supercellular convective modes the first 2-4
hrs of any development followed by an eventual merger of cells as=20
the LLJ matures further. This is a classic scenario of the southern
edge of a larger ascent pattern in spring that tends to be more=20
appreciable for heavy rainfall with the dryline and LLJ convergence
zone becoming the focal point for where the higher QPF concerns=20
arise. Latest HREF neighborhood probabilities for >3" of rainfall=20
are between 40-60% with the bullseye centered over the Concho=20
Valley, including the San Angelo area where terrain and=20
urbanization factors lend credence to a better localized flash=20
flood risk for the area of interest. Hourly rate probabilities for=20

1"/hr are very high (50-70%) for several hours across the same=20

area(s) which will be the driving force for the entire setup. In=20 coordination with the local San Angelo WFO, the SLGT risk was added
due to the evolving threat.=20

Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 02 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 03 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IOWA, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN...

The front will span from the Mid-Atlantic back into the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valleys during this period. Models have persisted
in placing the precipitation shield over much of the Upper Great
Lakes/Upper Midwest region. The moisture and instability along with
the upper-level support could lead to flooding concerns across
parts of the Great Lakes region. Colder air filtering across the
northern tier will allow for wintry weather concerns in the Great
Lakes to Interior Northeast thus limiting the area where flash
flooding may occur/cause impacts. Some areas could see
transitioning precipitation types throughout the event. A Marginal
Risk area remains in effect for portions of southern Wisconsin,
Lower Michigan and northern Illinois where precipitation is most
likely to stay mostly/all rain.

Campbell/Santorelli


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 03 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 04 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

Strong to severe thunderstorms along with embedded heavy rainfall
will track across the Southern/Central Plains into the Midwest
during this period. Moisture (with PWs over the 90th, perhaps 95th
percentile) and instability are likely to pool along and ahead of
the associated cold front and produce widespread convection.
Storms likely beginning in the afternoon are expected to get
reinforced through the evening and night hours as a low level jet
picks up ahead of the cold front. A Slight Risk was maintained and
adjusted to span from northern Texas to southwest Missouri.

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!58ho3EwA4LcNYSNVeWhVLYzJZXrgTFKUxflgbU9KYhQa= zuLHchV7pV1YeDdWYh8oRujbYwjCkkZvPKOC0qe_4a_mH-w$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!58ho3EwA4LcNYSNVeWhVLYzJZXrgTFKUxflgbU9KYhQa= zuLHchV7pV1YeDdWYh8oRujbYwjCkkZvPKOC0qe_k9DYbjA$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!58ho3EwA4LcNYSNVeWhVLYzJZXrgTFKUxflgbU9KYhQa= zuLHchV7pV1YeDdWYh8oRujbYwjCkkZvPKOC0qe_wmcbjGA$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 011951
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Wed Apr 01 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 02 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL STRETCHING FROM
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND THE CONCHO VALLEY...

...Central to Southern Plains...

16Z Update: The previous forecast remains on track with a heavy QPF
signature focused within the warm sector of a maturing synoptic
pattern as a lee surface low migrates eastward through the Central
Plains. Latest 12z HREF neighborhood probabilities for >3" remain
very elevated (50-70%) across areas of southeast KS up into
west-central MO, coincident with the axis of greatest convergence
where a propagating cold front will couple with a budding LLJ and
maximized mid-level forcing to create a solid area of heavy
convection beginning this afternoon, carrying through the overnight
hours. Heavy rain signature remains most prominent between the
quadrant of I-35/44/49/70 with portions of both the Wichita and
Kansas City metros in mix for heavy precipitation. Backed flow for
a time across zone will allow for some training elements prior to
the precip field migrating east-northeastward as a frontal passage
finally puts an end to the setup. Overall, this setup has
relatively good continuity in guidance going back to a few days
ago, thus only minor adjustments were made to the overall SLGT risk
area with the "biggest" change being more of an extension eastward
through MO for areas along and north of I-70 to correlate with some
overlap of heavy precipitation over areas that saw heavy rainfall
the past 12hrs.

Kleebauer

..Previous Forecast Discussion..

The latest hi-res and global guidance noted a south/southwest-ward
shift of the axis of highest precipitation to central Oklahoma to
northern Missouri from its previous position of northeast Kansas
into east-central Iowa where areal averages of 1 to 3 inches are
expected. There remains a decent signal for localized 3+ inches in
the vicinity of the Topeka-Kansas City metros. The Slight Risk
area was adjusted to now cover eastern Oklahoma to northern
Missouri while the Marginal Risk was maintained from the Texas
Hill Country to the Mississippi/Ohio Valleys.

A prominent warm-sector will materialize from west-central Texas
into Missouri with a surface low forecast to be positioned over the
Central Plains by Wednesday afternoon. Several shortwaves will
eject northeast within and ahead of the mean trough leading to
multiple waves of rainfall from the south-central Plains into the
Middle Mississippi Valley. Some training potential, leading to 1-3
inch areal average amounts in this region, with some potential for
isolated higher amounts of 3+ inches. Farther south, a long axis
of convection is expected from Texas to Kansas along the cold
front, but storms in this area should be more progressive and soils
are even more dry than to the north.

Campbell/Santorelli


...Texas...

A SLGT risk was added across the Concho Valley in west TX as trends
for back-building convection along a well-established dryline will
open the door for heavy precipitation totals where training
convection is plausible. Recent HREF QPF trends were pretty
substantial in the last few cycles of the hi-res ensemble with the
blended mean QPF a solid 2-3" across the area between the Lower
Trans Pecos and points east-northeast to the northern fringes of
Hill Country. A lot of this setup stems from a sharpening dryline
that tilts back to the west-southwest as a maturing nocturnal LLJ
takes shape after 23z. Convergent signature within a favorably
unstable environment and stout 45-55kt bulk shear axis should allow
for the initiation of supercellular convective modes the first 2-4
hrs of any development followed by an eventual merger of cells as
the LLJ matures further. This is a classic scenario of the southern
edge of a larger ascent pattern in spring that tends to be more
appreciable for heavy rainfall with the dryline and LLJ convergence
zone becoming the focal point for where the higher QPF concerns
arise. Latest HREF neighborhood probabilities for >3" of rainfall
are between 40-60% with the bullseye centered over the Concho
Valley, including the San Angelo area where terrain and
urbanization factors lend credence to a better localized flash
flood risk for the area of interest. Hourly rate probabilities for

1"/hr are very high (50-70%) for several hours across the same

area(s) which will be the driving force for the entire setup. In
coordination with the local San Angelo WFO, the SLGT risk was added
due to the evolving threat.

Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 02 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 03 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IOWA, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN...

20Z Update: Evolution of the longwave pattern across the Central
and Northern CONUS will create a multi-round area of convection
over portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes beginning Thursday
morning with a second round expected by the evening hours. The
first batch of rainfall will be relatively appreciable, but rates
will be lacking due to a dearth in the overall instability fields
across the Great Lakes. Increasing southerly flow will aid in
advection of slightly warmer temperatures and increasing MUCAPE by
the afternoon which will act as a key ingredient for convective
development later in the day as large scale forcing shifts eastward
with a surface cold front approaching from the west adding to the
regional ascent pattern. 12z CAMs have shown inferences of heavier
rainfall bisecting some of the urban zones located over northern IL
into southern WI, extending northeast to western MI just over the
lake shore. There are relatively good probabilities >50% within the
HREF EAS fields for at least 1" of precipitation, but probabilities
for 2" are significantly lower within the same zones meaning there
is a general 1-2" mean QPF output from the latest convective
allowing models. This is also experienced within the latest bias
corrected ensemble forecast, a testament to the general range of
outcomes for this setup.=20

The primary area of interest for flash flooding will likely lie=20
over far northern Chicago suburbs up into the Milwaukee metro due=20
to the areal urban footprint and suggestion of heavier rainfall in=20
the area, especially the second round of convection. Fortunately,=20
rates are generally capped at 1-1.25"/hr at peak intensity with=20
much of the CAMs hourly outputs closer to 0.5-1"/hr for the=20
heaviest periods of impact. This lies right on the edge of any FFG=20 exceedance, so the threat will be somewhat capped overall for a=20
multitude of reasons. Decided to maintain general continuity from=20
the previous forecast with only minor adjustments on the northern=20
and southern peripheries of the inherited MRGL risk. Will keep an=20
eye on trends within the CAMs to see if a small upgrade is=20
plausible across the aforementioned area over northern IL and=20
southern WI, but in coordination with the local WFO's and current=20
setup, decided it was not worthy for the upgrade in the risk.=20

Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 03 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 04 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

20Z Update: Only minor changes were made to the inherited SLGT risk
across the Southern Plains to Mid-Mississippi Valley as ensemble
output remains pretty consistent in the axis of where the heaviest
precip is expected for Friday evening into Saturday morning. High
1/3/6 hr FFG thresholds will likely subdue more appreciable risk
forecasts as a lot of rainfall will be necessary to approach more
substantial flash flood concerns, both magnitude and areal
coverage. That said, the longwave pattern and current forecast
instability would still be suitable for something bordering into
the higher end SLGT risk category, especially for central and
eastern OK down into the Red River Basin between the TX/OK border.
Will assess trends in the coming forecast periods to see if there
is any chance for changes, but right now the overall output from
guidance maintains a pretty solid run-to-run continuity with global=20 deterministic indicating perhaps a little more variance in
placement of heaviest precipitation corridors.=20

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

Strong to severe thunderstorms along with embedded heavy rainfall
will track across the Southern/Central Plains into the Midwest
during this period. Moisture (with PWs over the 90th, perhaps 95th
percentile) and instability are likely to pool along and ahead of
the associated cold front and produce widespread convection.
Storms likely beginning in the afternoon are expected to get
reinforced through the evening and night hours as a low level jet
picks up ahead of the cold front. A Slight Risk was maintained and
adjusted to span from northern Texas to southwest Missouri.

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4-YXlQogUK1k7Ank8DaAGrA6qutGQ9Lv-mhVV_RKJsxL= _9XKsa7XosUpIM5clcnNm6Cqj8v_BzYMyxAcGDF0sqcFBZc$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4-YXlQogUK1k7Ank8DaAGrA6qutGQ9Lv-mhVV_RKJsxL= _9XKsa7XosUpIM5clcnNm6Cqj8v_BzYMyxAcGDF0HtdJ4q4$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4-YXlQogUK1k7Ank8DaAGrA6qutGQ9Lv-mhVV_RKJsxL= _9XKsa7XosUpIM5clcnNm6Cqj8v_BzYMyxAcGDF0JSkDfIk$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 020043
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
843 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Thu Apr 02 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 02 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM PORTIONS OF
TEXAS NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...Oklahoma into western Illinois...
Recent mesoscale model guidance and radar reflectivity trends show
that continuity is generally on track, so changes to the previous=20
risk areas have been minimal. An elongating area of organized=20
convection extends ahead of a convective wave presently in western=20
OK up an existing frontal boundary, with convection showing slight=20
eastward movement. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" have been seen due=20
to cell training, cell mergers, and embedded mesocyclones. Local=20
totals in the 4" range are possible in this environment where very=20
heavy rain can persist for 1.5 hours or so. The heavy rain=20
potential should continue into the early morning hours of Thursday=20
before fading by 12z.


...Central Texas...
A Slight Risk remains across the Concho Valley in west TX as=20
trends for convection running out ahead of a retreating dry line.=20
The atmosphere shows a favorably unstable environment and stout=20
45-55kt bulk shear axis should allow for the initiation of=20
supercellular convective modes shortly followed by an eventual=20
merger of cells as the LLJ matures further. This is a classic=20
scenario of the southern edge of a larger ascent pattern in spring=20
that tends to be more appreciable for heavy rainfall. Hourly rain
amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" are possible here as well.
Continuity could be well maintained, using the recent mesoscale=20
guidance as a guide.


...Upper Ohio Valley...
While convection appears to be on the wane in this area, the
mesoscale guidance suggests that some activity could continue to
bubble overnight. Local amounts in the 1-3" range occurred here
over the past 24 hours. Left the Marginal Risk in this region=20
intact as a course of least regret.

Roth


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 02 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 03 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IOWA, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN...

20Z Update: Evolution of the longwave pattern across the Central
and Northern CONUS will create a multi-round area of convection
over portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes beginning Thursday
morning with a second round expected by the evening hours. The
first batch of rainfall will be relatively appreciable, but rates
will be lacking due to a dearth in the overall instability fields
across the Great Lakes. Increasing southerly flow will aid in
advection of slightly warmer temperatures and increasing MUCAPE by
the afternoon which will act as a key ingredient for convective
development later in the day as large scale forcing shifts eastward
with a surface cold front approaching from the west adding to the
regional ascent pattern. 12z CAMs have shown inferences of heavier
rainfall bisecting some of the urban zones located over northern IL
into southern WI, extending northeast to western MI just over the
lake shore. There are relatively good probabilities >50% within the
HREF EAS fields for at least 1" of precipitation, but probabilities
for 2" are significantly lower within the same zones meaning there
is a general 1-2" mean QPF output from the latest convective
allowing models. This is also experienced within the latest bias
corrected ensemble forecast, a testament to the general range of
outcomes for this setup.

The primary area of interest for flash flooding will likely lie
over far northern Chicago suburbs up into the Milwaukee metro due
to the areal urban footprint and suggestion of heavier rainfall in
the area, especially the second round of convection. Fortunately,
rates are generally capped at 1-1.25"/hr at peak intensity with
much of the CAMs hourly outputs closer to 0.5-1"/hr for the
heaviest periods of impact. This lies right on the edge of any FFG
exceedance, so the threat will be somewhat capped overall for a
multitude of reasons. Decided to maintain general continuity from
the previous forecast with only minor adjustments on the northern
and southern peripheries of the inherited MRGL risk. Will keep an
eye on trends within the CAMs to see if a small upgrade is
plausible across the aforementioned area over northern IL and
southern WI, but in coordination with the local WFO's and current
setup, decided it was not worthy for the upgrade in the risk.

Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 03 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 04 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

20Z Update: Only minor changes were made to the inherited SLGT risk
across the Southern Plains to Mid-Mississippi Valley as ensemble
output remains pretty consistent in the axis of where the heaviest
precip is expected for Friday evening into Saturday morning. High
1/3/6 hr FFG thresholds will likely subdue more appreciable risk
forecasts as a lot of rainfall will be necessary to approach more
substantial flash flood concerns, both magnitude and areal
coverage. That said, the longwave pattern and current forecast
instability would still be suitable for something bordering into
the higher end SLGT risk category, especially for central and
eastern OK down into the Red River Basin between the TX/OK border.
Will assess trends in the coming forecast periods to see if there
is any chance for changes, but right now the overall output from
guidance maintains a pretty solid run-to-run continuity with global deterministic indicating perhaps a little more variance in
placement of heaviest precipitation corridors.

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

Strong to severe thunderstorms along with embedded heavy rainfall
will track across the Southern/Central Plains into the Midwest
during this period. Moisture (with PWs over the 90th, perhaps 95th
percentile) and instability are likely to pool along and ahead of
the associated cold front and produce widespread convection.
Storms likely beginning in the afternoon are expected to get
reinforced through the evening and night hours as a low level jet
picks up ahead of the cold front. A Slight Risk was maintained and
adjusted to span from northern Texas to southwest Missouri.

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_CgHiM5x-aS0lLOWBk3_aiuVIU1sGw-_UkT-BvkMcZ7f= Ssx9aECsXGwWMjM5WlAEsZRvlXb0bcPP8zbxBxFcyxRAx-k$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_CgHiM5x-aS0lLOWBk3_aiuVIU1sGw-_UkT-BvkMcZ7f= Ssx9aECsXGwWMjM5WlAEsZRvlXb0bcPP8zbxBxFc2YUIYcU$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_CgHiM5x-aS0lLOWBk3_aiuVIU1sGw-_UkT-BvkMcZ7f= Ssx9aECsXGwWMjM5WlAEsZRvlXb0bcPP8zbxBxFckcxSgKc$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 020806
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
406 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 02 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 03 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS, WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN...

The primary area of interest for flash flooding will likely lie
over far northern Chicago suburbs up into the Milwaukee metro due
to the areal urban footprint and suggestion of heavier rainfall in
the area, especially the second round of convection. Fortunately,
rates are generally capped at 1-1.25"/hr at peak intensity with
much of the CAMs hourly outputs closer to 0.5-1"/hr for the
heaviest periods of impact. This lies right on the edge of any FFG
exceedance, so the threat will be somewhat capped overall for a
multitude of reasons. There will likely be two main rounds- the
first in the morning hours followed by a most robust line during
the afternoon when there will be more ample large scale
forcing/instability as the surface cold front approaches from the
West. Overall areal averages across the region will be in the 1-2
inch range with locally isolated higher amounts possible.
=20
Campbell/Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 03 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 04 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS REGION...

Strong to severe thunderstorms along with embedded heavy rainfall
will track across the Southern/Central Plains into the Mississippi Valley/Midwest during this period. Moisture (with PWs over the=20
90th, perhaps 95th percentile) and instability are likely to pool=20
along and ahead of the associated cold front and produce widespread
convection. Storms likely beginning in the afternoon are expected=20
to get reinforced through the evening and night hours as a low=20
level jet picks up ahead of the cold front. Given that some of this
region has been drier, it will take awhile before there are
substantial flash flood concerns. Some of the highest amounts/rates
are likely to focus over parts of central and eastern Oklahoma=20
down into the Red River Basin between the Texas and Oklahoma=20
border. Consensus has areal averages of 1 to 3 inches while some of
the hi-res guidance is hinting at isolated maximums of 4 to 7
inches. Slight Risk area spans from north-central Texas to
southwest-southern Missouri.

Campbell/Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 04 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 05 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

Much of the convection that evolves across the Marginal Risk area
on D3/Sat will depend on specific evolution of convective complexes
that originate from the central/southern Plains on D2/Fri. Although
those details are a bit uncertain at the time frame, general
consensus is that one or two MCSs will traverse the Mississippi Valley/Mid-South early in the forecast period before convective
redevelopment occurs upstream along a composite outflow/cold front
during peak heating hours from central Texas to Mississippi. Areas
of training are likely if this pattern holds, with initiating=20
boundaries supporting deep convection eventually becoming more=20
parallel to steering flow aloft. Portions of this region may=20
require an upgrade to Slight in later outlook updates.

Farther north, convective coverage is far less certain -
particularly from Illinois to Ohio. Deeper convection south of
these areas could disrupt inflow/instability and lead to a minimum
in precipitation in these areas. Again - this regime is uncertain.

The primary reason Marginal was maintained for D3 from Illinois
eastward to New York State and West Virginia was soils/local
sensitivity. Soils are wetter with eastern extent from prior
rainfall and could still be sensitive to even moderate rainfall by
D3/Sat in a few spots.=20

Cook


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_e6cFVCp5FkUBtuJh18oMQ9GcH3tFmGBfxUbbK5BfMiu= Bwgjuc5FfutMWLKLvn0QME5Qkl1B7j02V7aLmVSfIbU3poY$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_e6cFVCp5FkUBtuJh18oMQ9GcH3tFmGBfxUbbK5BfMiu= Bwgjuc5FfutMWLKLvn0QME5Qkl1B7j02V7aLmVSfKF2LeEk$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_e6cFVCp5FkUBtuJh18oMQ9GcH3tFmGBfxUbbK5BfMiu= Bwgjuc5FfutMWLKLvn0QME5Qkl1B7j02V7aLmVSfz7jnWwg$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 021549
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1149 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Thu Apr 02 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 03 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS, WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN...

16Z Update: The overall setup and expected evolution remains
consistent from previous forecasts with the heaviest rainfall
expected to occur after 18z from eastern IA to points east and
northeast as the surface low slowly intensifies and carries north-
east from IA through southern WI. Warm front positioning this=20
morning showed a modest advancement north, verifying well with the=20
current CAMs output as the boundary begins pushing through northern
IL at this hour. Expectation is for a defined warm sector to=20
materialize across eastern IA, northern IL, and southern WI with=20
the northern periphery of the theta_E ridge centered between the=20
Wisconsin Dells to just south of Sheboygan. Any area south of this
delineation will be under a threat of scattered convection capable
of heavy rainfall with rates generally between 0.5-1"/hr with the
max likely capped between 1-1.5"/hr given the instability/moisture
depth present. Despite climatological anomalies of PWATs around 3
standard deviations above normal, this is still modest in the
context of more appreciable rainfall prospects since it's still
only the beginning of April.=20

The primary areas of focus will be those more urbanized zones=20
where run off potential is highest just due to the limited=20
absorption that can occur within the infrastructure. Milwaukee,=20
northern Chicago suburbs, and Madison are the prime targets when=20
assessing the 12z HREF neighborhood probs for >2" as percentages=20
are running between 40-70% from just north of the Quad Cities to=20
the northern suburbs of Milwaukee. HREF EAS is very aggressive for=20
at least 1" in that same broad area, however there is a precipitous
drop off in the >2" EAS meaning the maximum is likely capped=20
considering the short term training risk and then steady northeast=20 progression as the region experiences the cold front passage later=20
this evening.=20

Considering the above variables, the only changes made were an
adjustment further southwest with the risk into eastern IA to
account for some trends in CAMs showing more aggressive convective
development later this afternoon over this particular zone which
upped some of the neighborhood probabilities for totals reach 2".
The best chance remains across southern WI with the Milwaukee metro
the most likely location for FFG exceedance and flash flood
prospects.

Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 03 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 04 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS REGION...

Strong to severe thunderstorms along with embedded heavy rainfall
will track across the Southern/Central Plains into the Mississippi Valley/Midwest during this period. Moisture (with PWs over the
90th, perhaps 95th percentile) and instability are likely to pool
along and ahead of the associated cold front and produce widespread
convection. Storms likely beginning in the afternoon are expected
to get reinforced through the evening and night hours as a low
level jet picks up ahead of the cold front. Given that some of this
region has been drier, it will take awhile before there are
substantial flash flood concerns. Some of the highest amounts/rates
are likely to focus over parts of central and eastern Oklahoma
down into the Red River Basin between the Texas and Oklahoma
border. Consensus has areal averages of 1 to 3 inches while some of
the hi-res guidance is hinting at isolated maximums of 4 to 7
inches. Slight Risk area spans from north-central Texas to
southwest-southern Missouri.

Campbell/Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 04 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 05 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

Much of the convection that evolves across the Marginal Risk area
on D3/Sat will depend on specific evolution of convective complexes
that originate from the central/southern Plains on D2/Fri. Although
those details are a bit uncertain at the time frame, general
consensus is that one or two MCSs will traverse the Mississippi Valley/Mid-South early in the forecast period before convective
redevelopment occurs upstream along a composite outflow/cold front
during peak heating hours from central Texas to Mississippi. Areas
of training are likely if this pattern holds, with initiating
boundaries supporting deep convection eventually becoming more
parallel to steering flow aloft. Portions of this region may
require an upgrade to Slight in later outlook updates.

Farther north, convective coverage is far less certain -
particularly from Illinois to Ohio. Deeper convection south of
these areas could disrupt inflow/instability and lead to a minimum
in precipitation in these areas. Again - this regime is uncertain.

The primary reason Marginal was maintained for D3 from Illinois
eastward to New York State and West Virginia was soils/local
sensitivity. Soils are wetter with eastern extent from prior
rainfall and could still be sensitive to even moderate rainfall by
D3/Sat in a few spots.

Cook


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!71csgirOOtD5h282RGWfxMPCgES2KZ_W6hzZ3DSweAMA= w5GREEaVFfoq2JiCnBZkPjmn8xw8a6SRa93Xj0WN7qnrA7I$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!71csgirOOtD5h282RGWfxMPCgES2KZ_W6hzZ3DSweAMA= w5GREEaVFfoq2JiCnBZkPjmn8xw8a6SRa93Xj0WNoPIhjTA$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!71csgirOOtD5h282RGWfxMPCgES2KZ_W6hzZ3DSweAMA= w5GREEaVFfoq2JiCnBZkPjmn8xw8a6SRa93Xj0WNXf2Lzvg$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 021955
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Thu Apr 02 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 03 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS, WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN...

16Z Update: The overall setup and expected evolution remains
consistent from previous forecasts with the heaviest rainfall
expected to occur after 18z from eastern IA to points east and
northeast as the surface low slowly intensifies and carries north-
east from IA through southern WI. Warm front positioning this
morning showed a modest advancement north, verifying well with the
current CAMs output as the boundary begins pushing through northern
IL at this hour. Expectation is for a defined warm sector to
materialize across eastern IA, northern IL, and southern WI with
the northern periphery of the theta_E ridge centered between the
Wisconsin Dells to just south of Sheboygan. Any area south of this
delineation will be under a threat of scattered convection capable
of heavy rainfall with rates generally between 0.5-1"/hr with the
max likely capped between 1-1.5"/hr given the instability/moisture
depth present. Despite climatological anomalies of PWATs around 3
standard deviations above normal, this is still modest in the
context of more appreciable rainfall prospects since it's still
only the beginning of April.

The primary areas of focus will be those more urbanized zones
where run off potential is highest just due to the limited
absorption that can occur within the infrastructure. Milwaukee,
northern Chicago suburbs, and Madison are the prime targets when
assessing the 12z HREF neighborhood probs for >2" as percentages
are running between 40-70% from just north of the Quad Cities to
the northern suburbs of Milwaukee. HREF EAS is very aggressive for
at least 1" in that same broad area, however there is a precipitous
drop off in the >2" EAS meaning the maximum is likely capped
considering the short term training risk and then steady northeast
progression as the region experiences the cold front passage later
this evening.

Considering the above variables, the only changes made were an
adjustment further southwest with the risk into eastern IA to
account for some trends in CAMs showing more aggressive convective
development later this afternoon over this particular zone which
upped some of the neighborhood probabilities for totals reach 2".
The best chance remains across southern WI with the Milwaukee metro
the most likely location for FFG exceedance and flash flood
prospects.

Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 03 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 04 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS AND MISSOURI VALLEY...

20Z Update: A powerful upper trough/ULL with an intensifying=20
surface low and trailing cold front will initiate quite the heavy=20
rain event across the Southern Plains up into the Missouri Valley=20
on Friday evening, carrying through Saturday morning and beyond.=20
Environment in both instability output and a deep moisture=20
advection regime across the Southern Plains extending into the=20
Ozarks and adjacent Missouri Valley will be prominent with PWAT=20
anomalies surging to 2-4 standard deviations above normal within=20
the broad warm sector centered over northern TX up into the Mid-
Mississippi Valley. Large scale ascent pattern is textbook for a=20
broad axis of maturing convection on the leading edge of the=20
approaching cold front with the western flank of the precip=20
situated along the cold front and a north-south oriented dryline=20
centered over west TX. The whole setup will slowly migrate to the=20
east as the upper level evolution gradually shifts northeastward=20
from the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest leading to
relatively slow/modest storm motions capable of dropping copious=20
amounts of rainfall in a short period of time.=20

Strongest area of convergence is currently positioned where the LLJ
will combine with the cold front as the boundary tilts back
southwestward through TX, a classic scenario where heavy convection
is more apt to train for at least a short period of time. WPC 50th
percentile QPF across the area from North TX into eastern OK is
between 2-3.5" the 90th percentile well over 4" for a broad area,
including the DFW metroplex where flash flood concerns are always
relevant due to the sprawling urbanization factors leading to high
run off. 12z HREF neighborhood probabilities for >3" are between
40-80% across west-central TX to the Red River with 40-70% notable
as far north as northeast OK into northwest AR. The >5"
probabilities are between 20-50% across north-central TX, just
north of the DFW metro and encompassing portions of I-35 and areas
west. Dry antecedent conditions should prevent a more highly
impactful event as initial rain will be beneficial to the region.
However, the amounts being forecast in a span of 3-6 hrs as the
storms move overhead would be enough to cause problems with at
least a scattered flash flood prospects for where storms reach
those 2-3"/hr thresholds for a time. Considering the above, this
was more than enough to expand the SLGT risk further southwest into
the Concho Valley and even east into the I-35 corridor within proxy
of the DFW metro area. The area of eastern OK down into north-
central TX is classified as a higher end SLGT risk, outside a
higher risk category due to the very dry antecedent conditions
initially. Will be a time frame to monitor for any targeted
upgrades in these two specific areas.=20=20

Further north, convective development across eastern OK up through
the Ozarks and the I-49 corridor would be another area of interest,
mainly late in the period, as the cold front finally reaches this
area of the CONUS. Heavy rain from the previous periods over the
area south of the KC metro have dropped local FFG's to values
easily exceeded even in the more moderate thunderstorm outputs let
alone a more significant heavy rain depiction. HREF probabilities
for even >2" in the area run between 40-90% with the highest
probabilities located across southwestern MO, just outside the hard
hit areas referenced. Even so, the 3 and 6hr FFG exceedance
probabilities in that wetter antecedent environment are well north
of 60% in the latest HREF probabilities, a signature high enough to
warrant an expansion of the SLGT risk further northeast out of OK
and through the western Ozarks up through the I-49 corridor just
southeast of Kansas City.=20=20

Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 04 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 05 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

20Z Update: Very little has changed in the expected synoptic
evolution across the eastern half of the CONUS with a broad trough
and cold frontal progression likely to maintain incidences of
convection stretching from the Great Lakes/Midwest down into the
Mid-South and Southeastern U.S. The setup for flash flooding is=20
still very much contingent on the convective evolution that forms
upstream on D2, a tough task to engage in detail where variability
in convective behavior typically causes changes in the expected QPF
footprint and areal magnitudes forecast. As of now, the highest
risk is likely somewhere within proximity to the Southeastern U.S.,
namely areas along the Lower Mississippi Valley into MS/AL as the
frontal progression is expected to be within this zone around the
timing of the next nocturnal LLJ enhancement. An axis of
convergence between the front and LLJ will likely initiate a more
robust area of heavy convection capable of flash flooding,
especially in more urbanized zones. FFG's remain high overall
across much of the South, so the threat for more appreciable
impacts is low, but the setup could be enough to warrant a targeted
upgrade. For now, the MRGL was kept due to some of the uncertainty remaining.=20

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

Much of the convection that evolves across the Marginal Risk area
on D3/Sat will depend on specific evolution of convective complexes
that originate from the central/southern Plains on D2/Fri. Although
those details are a bit uncertain at the time frame, general
consensus is that one or two MCSs will traverse the Mississippi Valley/Mid-South early in the forecast period before convective
redevelopment occurs upstream along a composite outflow/cold front
during peak heating hours from central Texas to Mississippi. Areas
of training are likely if this pattern holds, with initiating
boundaries supporting deep convection eventually becoming more
parallel to steering flow aloft. Portions of this region may
require an upgrade to Slight in later outlook updates.

Farther north, convective coverage is far less certain -
particularly from Illinois to Ohio. Deeper convection south of
these areas could disrupt inflow/instability and lead to a minimum
in precipitation in these areas. Again - this regime is uncertain.

The primary reason Marginal was maintained for D3 from Illinois
eastward to New York State and West Virginia was soils/local
sensitivity. Soils are wetter with eastern extent from prior
rainfall and could still be sensitive to even moderate rainfall by
D3/Sat in a few spots.

Cook


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!71DVQS9XS3hSCOWGCOKjzcCcrRXijKR3N28_VTHSf-_5= LoINQnBgW5zsiAieS6P7lUYseN-ahO9Vzk6e5UzM6tih_bU$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!71DVQS9XS3hSCOWGCOKjzcCcrRXijKR3N28_VTHSf-_5= LoINQnBgW5zsiAieS6P7lUYseN-ahO9Vzk6e5UzMn57uXis$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!71DVQS9XS3hSCOWGCOKjzcCcrRXijKR3N28_VTHSf-_5= LoINQnBgW5zsiAieS6P7lUYseN-ahO9Vzk6e5UzMw4aQ9gM$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 030034
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
834 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Fri Apr 03 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 03 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST AND MICHIGAN...

A couple of convective bands are moving across portions of northern
IL, southern WI, IN, and southern Lower MI. These areas have
pockets of 500-1500 J/kg of ML/MU CAPE and increasing CIN, with the
IN activity tapping the MU CAPE more than the ML CAPE. Effective
bulk shear has been sufficient for convective organization, and
precipitable water values have been 1.25-1.5". Should any cells
train or backbuild, 2" an hour totals would be possible in the very
near time.=20

Across much of this area, mostly due to recent rainfall, flash=20
flood guidance values are modest and these sort of rain rates=20
would be sufficient to cause issues. The mesoscale guidance=20
suggests that as the various forms of CAPE erode, much of the=20
activity should fade over the next few hours. There are mixed=20
signals as to whether or not activity in IL will backbuild or=20
reform southward, with the 18z HREF more emphatic about this idea.=20
This would fit RAP forecasts showing MU CAPE remaining a fixture=20
near the confluence of the MS & OH rivers while almost completely=20
eroding elsewhere overnight, which could allow for some convection=20
in and near southern IL to simmer overnight. Modified the existing=20
Marginal Risk to account for recent convective trends and this=20
idea.=20

Roth


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 03 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 04 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS AND MISSOURI VALLEY...

20Z Update: A powerful upper trough/ULL with an intensifying
surface low and trailing cold front will initiate quite the heavy
rain event across the Southern Plains up into the Missouri Valley
on Friday evening, carrying through Saturday morning and beyond.
Environment in both instability output and a deep moisture
advection regime across the Southern Plains extending into the
Ozarks and adjacent Missouri Valley will be prominent with PWAT
anomalies surging to 2-4 standard deviations above normal within
the broad warm sector centered over northern TX up into the Mid-
Mississippi Valley. Large scale ascent pattern is textbook for a
broad axis of maturing convection on the leading edge of the
approaching cold front with the western flank of the precip
situated along the cold front and a north-south oriented dryline
centered over west TX. The whole setup will slowly migrate to the
east as the upper level evolution gradually shifts northeastward
from the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest leading to
relatively slow/modest storm motions capable of dropping copious
amounts of rainfall in a short period of time.

Strongest area of convergence is currently positioned where the LLJ
will combine with the cold front as the boundary tilts back
southwestward through TX, a classic scenario where heavy convection
is more apt to train for at least a short period of time. WPC 50th
percentile QPF across the area from North TX into eastern OK is
between 2-3.5" the 90th percentile well over 4" for a broad area,
including the DFW metroplex where flash flood concerns are always
relevant due to the sprawling urbanization factors leading to high
run off. 12z HREF neighborhood probabilities for >3" are between
40-80% across west-central TX to the Red River with 40-70% notable
as far north as northeast OK into northwest AR. The >5"
probabilities are between 20-50% across north-central TX, just
north of the DFW metro and encompassing portions of I-35 and areas
west. Dry antecedent conditions should prevent a more highly
impactful event as initial rain will be beneficial to the region.
However, the amounts being forecast in a span of 3-6 hrs as the
storms move overhead would be enough to cause problems with at
least a scattered flash flood prospects for where storms reach
those 2-3"/hr thresholds for a time. Considering the above, this
was more than enough to expand the SLGT risk further southwest into
the Concho Valley and even east into the I-35 corridor within proxy
of the DFW metro area. The area of eastern OK down into north-
central TX is classified as a higher end SLGT risk, outside a
higher risk category due to the very dry antecedent conditions
initially. Will be a time frame to monitor for any targeted
upgrades in these two specific areas.

Further north, convective development across eastern OK up through
the Ozarks and the I-49 corridor would be another area of interest,
mainly late in the period, as the cold front finally reaches this
area of the CONUS. Heavy rain from the previous periods over the
area south of the KC metro have dropped local FFG's to values
easily exceeded even in the more moderate thunderstorm outputs let
alone a more significant heavy rain depiction. HREF probabilities
for even >2" in the area run between 40-90% with the highest
probabilities located across southwestern MO, just outside the hard
hit areas referenced. Even so, the 3 and 6hr FFG exceedance
probabilities in that wetter antecedent environment are well north
of 60% in the latest HREF probabilities, a signature high enough to
warrant an expansion of the SLGT risk further northeast out of OK
and through the western Ozarks up through the I-49 corridor just
southeast of Kansas City.

Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 04 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 05 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

20Z Update: Very little has changed in the expected synoptic
evolution across the eastern half of the CONUS with a broad trough
and cold frontal progression likely to maintain incidences of
convection stretching from the Great Lakes/Midwest down into the
Mid-South and Southeastern U.S. The setup for flash flooding is
still very much contingent on the convective evolution that forms
upstream on D2, a tough task to engage in detail where variability
in convective behavior typically causes changes in the expected QPF
footprint and areal magnitudes forecast. As of now, the highest
risk is likely somewhere within proximity to the Southeastern U.S.,
namely areas along the Lower Mississippi Valley into MS/AL as the
frontal progression is expected to be within this zone around the
timing of the next nocturnal LLJ enhancement. An axis of
convergence between the front and LLJ will likely initiate a more
robust area of heavy convection capable of flash flooding,
especially in more urbanized zones. FFG's remain high overall
across much of the South, so the threat for more appreciable
impacts is low, but the setup could be enough to warrant a targeted
upgrade. For now, the MRGL was kept due to some of the uncertainty
remaining.

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

Much of the convection that evolves across the Marginal Risk area
on D3/Sat will depend on specific evolution of convective complexes
that originate from the central/southern Plains on D2/Fri. Although
those details are a bit uncertain at the time frame, general
consensus is that one or two MCSs will traverse the Mississippi Valley/Mid-South early in the forecast period before convective
redevelopment occurs upstream along a composite outflow/cold front
during peak heating hours from central Texas to Mississippi. Areas
of training are likely if this pattern holds, with initiating
boundaries supporting deep convection eventually becoming more
parallel to steering flow aloft. Portions of this region may
require an upgrade to Slight in later outlook updates.

Farther north, convective coverage is far less certain -
particularly from Illinois to Ohio. Deeper convection south of
these areas could disrupt inflow/instability and lead to a minimum
in precipitation in these areas. Again - this regime is uncertain.

The primary reason Marginal was maintained for D3 from Illinois
eastward to New York State and West Virginia was soils/local
sensitivity. Soils are wetter with eastern extent from prior
rainfall and could still be sensitive to even moderate rainfall by
D3/Sat in a few spots.

Cook


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-ILdNdgEMZERpviBSyrOU8B7wL5jm8xymd_gpShx0g0R= HGu_wAyHLjsXqRSNiKhTAV7fzkwEZWTCLoS6Dzda_3PeNkI$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-ILdNdgEMZERpviBSyrOU8B7wL5jm8xymd_gpShx0g0R= HGu_wAyHLjsXqRSNiKhTAV7fzkwEZWTCLoS6DzdaEliLvoY$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-ILdNdgEMZERpviBSyrOU8B7wL5jm8xymd_gpShx0g0R= HGu_wAyHLjsXqRSNiKhTAV7fzkwEZWTCLoS6DzdaQiXfwDc$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 030803
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 03 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 04 2026

...THERE IS SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS, MISSOURI VALLEY, AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

At the mid-levels, a stout wave over the Intermountain West
(centered over Wyoming) will migrate eastward throughout the day,
spreading increasingly strong mid-level flow and height falls from
the High Plains eastward toward the Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley.
At the surface, strong 850mb flow and poleward flux of
moisture/instability will become established along and ahead of a
low initially across the Kansas/Nebraska border region at the
beginning of the forecast period and persist through 12Z Sat. Late
in the forecast period, a cold front will migrate southward across
the southern Plains. Areas of scattered thunderstorms are expected
along and ahead the front and low especially during the afternoon
and evening, with several areas of flash flooding expected.

The primary area for flash flood potential will exist along the
OK/TX Red River vicinity southward toward central Texas and the Big
Country. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during=20
the afternoon and evening across the region, with CAMs suggestive=20
of training/repeating behavior and local areas of 2-5 inch totals.=20
The glancing influence of the aforementioned mid-level wave across=20
the region lends some doubt on degree and location of=20
daytime/afternoon convective coverage, which should modulate the=20
flash flood risk substantially.

Even if convection materializes as depicted by CAMs, antecedent
dryness of ground conditions are a mitigating factor for a more
widespread or significant flash flood risk. Persistent training
will likely be needed for ground conditions to lose receptiveness
to rainfall on a widespread basis. Both pre-frontal convection and
convection moving in along a surface cold front late represent two
distinct regimes for heavy rain and flash flood potential - with
that risk eventually spreading toward I-35 in Texas and the DFW=20
Metroplex area through early Saturday.

Farther north, convection along the front will likely sweep through
portions of Missouri and Oklahoma, with a greater risk/potential
for multiple mergers and/or convective clusters with southward
extent. Areas just southeast of Kansas City received copious
amounts of rain Thursday and will probably not have fully recovered
before the incoming thunderstorm threat through early Saturday,
necessitating maintenance of Slight Risk probabilities there.

Lastly, models (primarily CAMs) depict potential for
repeating/training convection across portions of northeastern Iowa
and vicinity through much of the day (from 16-18Z through well into
the evening) along/near a surface warm front and well ahead of an eastward-moving cold front that should reach the area late in the
forecast period. NASA Sport soil moistures suggests slightly more
moist ground conditions in these areas, and the advance of the
mid-level wave and confluence on the northern end of strong 850mb
flow all point to prolonged deep convective potential. 3-5 inch
totals cannot be ruled out in this regime. A Slight Risk has been=20
added to the outlook in these areas as a result.

Though less widespread, additional convection should traverse wet
ground conditions across portions of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and
southern New York State, supporting continued Marginal
probabilities in that area.

Cook

Day 2=20
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 04 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 05 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

Much of convective evolution during the D2/Sat forecast period will
depend on convective details from lingering convection across
Arkansas and Texas left over from D1/Fri. East-northeastward
progression of a mid-level wave toward the Great Lakes will aid in southeastward movement of a cold front from the Plains through the Ozarks/Mid-Mississippi Valley during the forecast period. This
front will gradually become more parallel to weakening flow aloft
from Texas to Mississippi, supporting additional opportunities for
training convection as storms organize along remnant outflows and
backbuild. This regime suggests that pockets of 1-3 inch rainfall
totals are likely especially from central Texas to northern
Alabama, with heavier totals also possible from central Mississippi
south into southeastern Louisiana as well. While Slight Risk
potential exists with this setup, concerns about 1) uncertainty of
prior-day convective evolution and 2) antecedent dryness continue
to be limiting factors for a more widespread flash flood risk at
this time.

Farther north, convection is likely to be progressive across much
of the Lower Ohio Valley along with potential for inhibited
destabilization due to more widespread convection across the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Too much uncertainty exists to reduce the
Marginal Risk area at this time. Notable exceptions to this general
regime exist, however, from northern Ohio into southern New York=20
State and Pennsylvania, where models suggest appreciable daytime=20
heating and moderate instability developing. Storms may not be all=20
that fast moving either in Pennsylvania as that region should=20
reside on the southern extent of stronger mid-level flow into=20
southeastern Canada. Convective coverage is a bit uncertain, but=20
any greater-than-anticipated coverage of convection in this=20
environment could locally raise flash flood concerns - especially=20
with low FFGs noted across that area.

Cook


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 05 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF=20
SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...

Maintained the Marginal Risk of Excessive rainfall area that was=20
introduced by the WPC Medium Range desk as a west-to-east oriented
front makes its way southward. Deeper moisture should e pooling=20
along and south of the boundary with precipitable water values=20
around 1.75 inches in place at the start of the outlook period.

Given uncertainties detailed n the Day 2 period with respect to the=20
timing and placement...combined with the 03/00Z NCEP global models
now showing the front to be more progressive than in earlier runs=20
which led to CAPE being swept out of South Texas faster...was not=20
inclined to introduce a Slight Risk area at this point. At the same point...spaghetti plots from the non-CAM ensembles still show=20
enough members with 1 inch QPF and a few contours of 2 inch QPF to=20
support keeping the Marginal area with only minor nudges around the
periphery.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4pv-0VMedZyQL64AUyDYkXhj7lgmB8o5apJWaBMUdLGp= _y_VZrM2eHKArhpDpdmY58193cJzvXkGbOS99cXTumh0PVQ$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4pv-0VMedZyQL64AUyDYkXhj7lgmB8o5apJWaBMUdLGp= _y_VZrM2eHKArhpDpdmY58193cJzvXkGbOS99cXTyzucT1g$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4pv-0VMedZyQL64AUyDYkXhj7lgmB8o5apJWaBMUdLGp= _y_VZrM2eHKArhpDpdmY58193cJzvXkGbOS99cXTBhtbbak$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 031558
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1158 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Apr 03 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 04 2026

...THERE IS SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS, MISSOURI VALLEY, AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...19Z update...

The forecast remains on track, only small edits were needed to
account for QPF trends. Convection is already underway near the=20
triple point in the Midwest and should ignite this afternoon ahead=20
of and along the cold front over the Plains. The best potential for
flash flooding remains across North Texas and central and eastern=20
Oklahoma where the low level jet and frontal dynamics will be=20
favorable for training/repeating storms and with the potential for=20
high rainfall rates exceeding 2 inches per hour. A Slight Risk=20
remains in effect for this activity and encompasses areas that are=20
expected to receive 3-5 inch rainfall totals, with locally higher=20
amounts possible. A Slight Risk also remains in effect from=20
eastern Iowa into far northwestern Illinois and far southwestern=20
Wisconsin where strong storms in the vicinity of the triple point=20
low will produce heavy rainfall on top of relatively moist soils.
There is potential for 3-5 inch rainfall totals in this area, and=20
scattered instances of flash flooding could be a possibility.

Dolan


...Previous Discussion...

At the mid-levels, a stout wave over the Intermountain West
(centered over Wyoming) will migrate eastward throughout the day,
spreading increasingly strong mid-level flow and height falls from
the High Plains eastward toward the Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley.
At the surface, strong 850mb flow and poleward flux of
moisture/instability will become established along and ahead of a
low initially across the Kansas/Nebraska border region at the
beginning of the forecast period and persist through 12Z Sat. Late
in the forecast period, a cold front will migrate southward across
the southern Plains. Areas of scattered thunderstorms are expected
along and ahead the front and low especially during the afternoon
and evening, with several areas of flash flooding expected.

The primary area for flash flood potential will exist along the
OK/TX Red River vicinity southward toward central Texas and the Big
Country. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during
the afternoon and evening across the region, with CAMs suggestive
of training/repeating behavior and local areas of 2-5 inch totals.
The glancing influence of the aforementioned mid-level wave across
the region lends some doubt on degree and location of
daytime/afternoon convective coverage, which should modulate the
flash flood risk substantially.

Even if convection materializes as depicted by CAMs, antecedent
dryness of ground conditions are a mitigating factor for a more
widespread or significant flash flood risk. Persistent training
will likely be needed for ground conditions to lose receptiveness
to rainfall on a widespread basis. Both pre-frontal convection and
convection moving in along a surface cold front late represent two
distinct regimes for heavy rain and flash flood potential - with
that risk eventually spreading toward I-35 in Texas and the DFW
Metroplex area through early Saturday.

Farther north, convection along the front will likely sweep through
portions of Missouri and Oklahoma, with a greater risk/potential
for multiple mergers and/or convective clusters with southward
extent. Areas just southeast of Kansas City received copious
amounts of rain Thursday and will probably not have fully recovered
before the incoming thunderstorm threat through early Saturday,
necessitating maintenance of Slight Risk probabilities there.

Lastly, models (primarily CAMs) depict potential for
repeating/training convection across portions of northeastern Iowa
and vicinity through much of the day (from 16-18Z through well into
the evening) along/near a surface warm front and well ahead of an eastward-moving cold front that should reach the area late in the
forecast period. NASA Sport soil moistures suggests slightly more
moist ground conditions in these areas, and the advance of the
mid-level wave and confluence on the northern end of strong 850mb
flow all point to prolonged deep convective potential. 3-5 inch
totals cannot be ruled out in this regime. A Slight Risk has been
added to the outlook in these areas as a result.

Though less widespread, additional convection should traverse wet
ground conditions across portions of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and
southern New York State, supporting continued Marginal
probabilities in that area.

Cook

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 04 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 05 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

Much of convective evolution during the D2/Sat forecast period will
depend on convective details from lingering convection across
Arkansas and Texas left over from D1/Fri. East-northeastward
progression of a mid-level wave toward the Great Lakes will aid in southeastward movement of a cold front from the Plains through the Ozarks/Mid-Mississippi Valley during the forecast period. This
front will gradually become more parallel to weakening flow aloft
from Texas to Mississippi, supporting additional opportunities for
training convection as storms organize along remnant outflows and
backbuild. This regime suggests that pockets of 1-3 inch rainfall
totals are likely especially from central Texas to northern
Alabama, with heavier totals also possible from central Mississippi
south into southeastern Louisiana as well. While Slight Risk
potential exists with this setup, concerns about 1) uncertainty of
prior-day convective evolution and 2) antecedent dryness continue
to be limiting factors for a more widespread flash flood risk at
this time.

Farther north, convection is likely to be progressive across much
of the Lower Ohio Valley along with potential for inhibited
destabilization due to more widespread convection across the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Too much uncertainty exists to reduce the
Marginal Risk area at this time. Notable exceptions to this general
regime exist, however, from northern Ohio into southern New York
State and Pennsylvania, where models suggest appreciable daytime
heating and moderate instability developing. Storms may not be all
that fast moving either in Pennsylvania as that region should
reside on the southern extent of stronger mid-level flow into
southeastern Canada. Convective coverage is a bit uncertain, but
any greater-than-anticipated coverage of convection in this
environment could locally raise flash flood concerns - especially
with low FFGs noted across that area.

Cook


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 05 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...

Maintained the Marginal Risk of Excessive rainfall area that was
introduced by the WPC Medium Range desk as a west-to-east oriented
front makes its way southward. Deeper moisture should e pooling
along and south of the boundary with precipitable water values
around 1.75 inches in place at the start of the outlook period.

Given uncertainties detailed n the Day 2 period with respect to the
timing and placement...combined with the 03/00Z NCEP global models
now showing the front to be more progressive than in earlier runs
which led to CAPE being swept out of South Texas faster...was not
inclined to introduce a Slight Risk area at this point. At the same point...spaghetti plots from the non-CAM ensembles still show
enough members with 1 inch QPF and a few contours of 2 inch QPF to
support keeping the Marginal area with only minor nudges around the
periphery.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4aNw5NTYbColxPGqn_q__ZsvqpcepZ-7EF1JQddYE_wl= EByJdGpx7-ib-kysvNu8KPz819D_hMUfPalTYeDMnRdIztk$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4aNw5NTYbColxPGqn_q__ZsvqpcepZ-7EF1JQddYE_wl= EByJdGpx7-ib-kysvNu8KPz819D_hMUfPalTYeDMxaE2IC8$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4aNw5NTYbColxPGqn_q__ZsvqpcepZ-7EF1JQddYE_wl= EByJdGpx7-ib-kysvNu8KPz819D_hMUfPalTYeDMLGRyNbE$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 031601
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1201 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Apr 03 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 04 2026

...THERE IS SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS, MISSOURI VALLEY, AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...16Z update...

The forecast remains on track, only small edits were needed to
account for QPF trends. Convection is already underway near the
triple point in the Midwest and should ignite this afternoon ahead
of and along the cold front over the Plains. The best potential for
flash flooding remains across North Texas and central and eastern
Oklahoma where the low level jet and frontal dynamics will be
favorable for training/repeating storms and with the potential for
high rainfall rates exceeding 2 inches per hour. A Slight Risk
remains in effect for this activity and encompasses areas that are
expected to receive 3-5 inch rainfall totals, with locally higher
amounts possible. A Slight Risk also remains in effect from
eastern Iowa into far northwestern Illinois and far southwestern
Wisconsin where strong storms in the vicinity of the triple point
low will produce heavy rainfall on top of relatively moist soils.
There is potential for 3-5 inch rainfall totals in this area, and
scattered instances of flash flooding could be a possibility.

Dolan


...Previous Discussion...

At the mid-levels, a stout wave over the Intermountain West
(centered over Wyoming) will migrate eastward throughout the day,
spreading increasingly strong mid-level flow and height falls from
the High Plains eastward toward the Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley.
At the surface, strong 850mb flow and poleward flux of
moisture/instability will become established along and ahead of a
low initially across the Kansas/Nebraska border region at the
beginning of the forecast period and persist through 12Z Sat. Late
in the forecast period, a cold front will migrate southward across
the southern Plains. Areas of scattered thunderstorms are expected
along and ahead the front and low especially during the afternoon
and evening, with several areas of flash flooding expected.

The primary area for flash flood potential will exist along the
OK/TX Red River vicinity southward toward central Texas and the Big
Country. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during
the afternoon and evening across the region, with CAMs suggestive
of training/repeating behavior and local areas of 2-5 inch totals.
The glancing influence of the aforementioned mid-level wave across
the region lends some doubt on degree and location of
daytime/afternoon convective coverage, which should modulate the
flash flood risk substantially.

Even if convection materializes as depicted by CAMs, antecedent
dryness of ground conditions are a mitigating factor for a more
widespread or significant flash flood risk. Persistent training
will likely be needed for ground conditions to lose receptiveness
to rainfall on a widespread basis. Both pre-frontal convection and
convection moving in along a surface cold front late represent two
distinct regimes for heavy rain and flash flood potential - with
that risk eventually spreading toward I-35 in Texas and the DFW
Metroplex area through early Saturday.

Farther north, convection along the front will likely sweep through
portions of Missouri and Oklahoma, with a greater risk/potential
for multiple mergers and/or convective clusters with southward
extent. Areas just southeast of Kansas City received copious
amounts of rain Thursday and will probably not have fully recovered
before the incoming thunderstorm threat through early Saturday,
necessitating maintenance of Slight Risk probabilities there.

Lastly, models (primarily CAMs) depict potential for
repeating/training convection across portions of northeastern Iowa
and vicinity through much of the day (from 16-18Z through well into
the evening) along/near a surface warm front and well ahead of an eastward-moving cold front that should reach the area late in the
forecast period. NASA Sport soil moistures suggests slightly more
moist ground conditions in these areas, and the advance of the
mid-level wave and confluence on the northern end of strong 850mb
flow all point to prolonged deep convective potential. 3-5 inch
totals cannot be ruled out in this regime. A Slight Risk has been
added to the outlook in these areas as a result.

Though less widespread, additional convection should traverse wet
ground conditions across portions of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and
southern New York State, supporting continued Marginal
probabilities in that area.

Cook

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 04 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 05 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

Much of convective evolution during the D2/Sat forecast period will
depend on convective details from lingering convection across
Arkansas and Texas left over from D1/Fri. East-northeastward
progression of a mid-level wave toward the Great Lakes will aid in southeastward movement of a cold front from the Plains through the Ozarks/Mid-Mississippi Valley during the forecast period. This
front will gradually become more parallel to weakening flow aloft
from Texas to Mississippi, supporting additional opportunities for
training convection as storms organize along remnant outflows and
backbuild. This regime suggests that pockets of 1-3 inch rainfall
totals are likely especially from central Texas to northern
Alabama, with heavier totals also possible from central Mississippi
south into southeastern Louisiana as well. While Slight Risk
potential exists with this setup, concerns about 1) uncertainty of
prior-day convective evolution and 2) antecedent dryness continue
to be limiting factors for a more widespread flash flood risk at
this time.

Farther north, convection is likely to be progressive across much
of the Lower Ohio Valley along with potential for inhibited
destabilization due to more widespread convection across the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Too much uncertainty exists to reduce the
Marginal Risk area at this time. Notable exceptions to this general
regime exist, however, from northern Ohio into southern New York
State and Pennsylvania, where models suggest appreciable daytime
heating and moderate instability developing. Storms may not be all
that fast moving either in Pennsylvania as that region should
reside on the southern extent of stronger mid-level flow into
southeastern Canada. Convective coverage is a bit uncertain, but
any greater-than-anticipated coverage of convection in this
environment could locally raise flash flood concerns - especially
with low FFGs noted across that area.

Cook


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 05 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...

Maintained the Marginal Risk of Excessive rainfall area that was
introduced by the WPC Medium Range desk as a west-to-east oriented
front makes its way southward. Deeper moisture should e pooling
along and south of the boundary with precipitable water values
around 1.75 inches in place at the start of the outlook period.

Given uncertainties detailed n the Day 2 period with respect to the
timing and placement...combined with the 03/00Z NCEP global models
now showing the front to be more progressive than in earlier runs
which led to CAPE being swept out of South Texas faster...was not
inclined to introduce a Slight Risk area at this point. At the same point...spaghetti plots from the non-CAM ensembles still show
enough members with 1 inch QPF and a few contours of 2 inch QPF to
support keeping the Marginal area with only minor nudges around the
periphery.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4M1L9xDIuoPLjAC3VxMSq7_NlvNJGngV6lhTvMs2acd3= Sz5mMifFpEKrpozYW-FHculW7coH4opTEyVkSz1ouXwCrqk$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4M1L9xDIuoPLjAC3VxMSq7_NlvNJGngV6lhTvMs2acd3= Sz5mMifFpEKrpozYW-FHculW7coH4opTEyVkSz1oLyQGqXY$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4M1L9xDIuoPLjAC3VxMSq7_NlvNJGngV6lhTvMs2acd3= Sz5mMifFpEKrpozYW-FHculW7coH4opTEyVkSz1osmsgAVc$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 032002
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Apr 03 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 04 2026

...THERE IS SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS, MISSOURI VALLEY, AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...16Z update...

The forecast remains on track, only small edits were needed to
account for QPF trends. Convection is already underway near the
triple point in the Midwest and should ignite this afternoon ahead
of and along the cold front over the Plains. The best potential for
flash flooding remains across North Texas and central and eastern
Oklahoma where the low level jet and frontal dynamics will be
favorable for training/repeating storms and with the potential for
high rainfall rates exceeding 2 inches per hour. A Slight Risk
remains in effect for this activity and encompasses areas that are
expected to receive 3-5 inch rainfall totals, with locally higher
amounts possible. A Slight Risk also remains in effect from
eastern Iowa into far northwestern Illinois and far southwestern
Wisconsin where strong storms in the vicinity of the triple point
low will produce heavy rainfall on top of relatively moist soils.
There is potential for 3-5 inch rainfall totals in this area, and
scattered instances of flash flooding could be a possibility.

Dolan


...Previous Discussion...

At the mid-levels, a stout wave over the Intermountain West
(centered over Wyoming) will migrate eastward throughout the day,
spreading increasingly strong mid-level flow and height falls from
the High Plains eastward toward the Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley.
At the surface, strong 850mb flow and poleward flux of
moisture/instability will become established along and ahead of a
low initially across the Kansas/Nebraska border region at the
beginning of the forecast period and persist through 12Z Sat. Late
in the forecast period, a cold front will migrate southward across
the southern Plains. Areas of scattered thunderstorms are expected
along and ahead the front and low especially during the afternoon
and evening, with several areas of flash flooding expected.

The primary area for flash flood potential will exist along the
OK/TX Red River vicinity southward toward central Texas and the Big
Country. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during
the afternoon and evening across the region, with CAMs suggestive
of training/repeating behavior and local areas of 2-5 inch totals.
The glancing influence of the aforementioned mid-level wave across
the region lends some doubt on degree and location of
daytime/afternoon convective coverage, which should modulate the
flash flood risk substantially.

Even if convection materializes as depicted by CAMs, antecedent
dryness of ground conditions are a mitigating factor for a more
widespread or significant flash flood risk. Persistent training
will likely be needed for ground conditions to lose receptiveness
to rainfall on a widespread basis. Both pre-frontal convection and
convection moving in along a surface cold front late represent two
distinct regimes for heavy rain and flash flood potential - with
that risk eventually spreading toward I-35 in Texas and the DFW
Metroplex area through early Saturday.

Farther north, convection along the front will likely sweep through
portions of Missouri and Oklahoma, with a greater risk/potential
for multiple mergers and/or convective clusters with southward
extent. Areas just southeast of Kansas City received copious
amounts of rain Thursday and will probably not have fully recovered
before the incoming thunderstorm threat through early Saturday,
necessitating maintenance of Slight Risk probabilities there.

Lastly, models (primarily CAMs) depict potential for
repeating/training convection across portions of northeastern Iowa
and vicinity through much of the day (from 16-18Z through well into
the evening) along/near a surface warm front and well ahead of an eastward-moving cold front that should reach the area late in the
forecast period. NASA Sport soil moistures suggests slightly more
moist ground conditions in these areas, and the advance of the
mid-level wave and confluence on the northern end of strong 850mb
flow all point to prolonged deep convective potential. 3-5 inch
totals cannot be ruled out in this regime. A Slight Risk has been
added to the outlook in these areas as a result.

Though less widespread, additional convection should traverse wet
ground conditions across portions of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and
southern New York State, supporting continued Marginal
probabilities in that area.

Cook

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 04 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 05 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ARKLATEX AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

Much of convective evolution during the D2/Sat forecast period=20
will depend on convective details from lingering convection across=20
Arkansas and Texas left over from D1/Fri. East-northeastward=20
progression of a mid-level wave toward the Great Lakes will aid in=20 southeastward movement of a cold front from the Plains through the=20 Ozarks/Mid-Mississippi Valley during the forecast period. This=20
front will gradually become more parallel to weakening flow aloft=20
from Texas to Mississippi, supporting additional opportunities for=20
training convection as storms organize along remnant outflows and=20
backbuild, with the potential for areal average rainfall in the=20
1-2" range leading to isolated instances of flash flooding.=20

A more focused threat has been identified supporting the=20
introduction of two Slight Risk areas within the broader Marginal=20
Risk. The first is across portions of the ArkLaTex southwest=20
through northeast Texas. The latest hi-res guidance supports the=20
maintenance of ongoing convection within the Slight Risk for the=20
day 1 period across Oklahoma continuing southeastward along the=20
front into Saturday morning. A wave of low pressure along the front
in northeast Texas will also help to maintain/enhance the=20
development of this convection as well as briefly slow the=20
progression of the front northeast through the ArkLaTex, allowing=20
for heavier rainfall totals as storms persist over the region for a
longer amount of time before the front begins to sweep southward=20
faster later into the afternoon. The latest 12Z CAMs show the=20
potential for locally heavy totals of 3-4" with rain rates of=20
2-2.5" per hour. The second region is across portions of the Lower=20 Mississippi Valley later in the day where moist southerly flow from
the Gulf will bring a pool of ~70 degree dewpoints northward.=20
These high dewpoints along with daytime heating will lead to a=20
region of 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE supporting the development of heavy-
rainfall producing thunderstorms ahead of the front. The=20
combination of this initial development in addition to a second=20
round of storms expected along the front with similarly high rain=20
rates of ~2" per hour will also lead to the potential of locally=20
heavier totals in the 3-4" range. While dry antecedent=20
conditions/high FFGs may limit the overall threat, the potential=20
for these higher rain rates/totals within the highlighted Slight=20
Risks should be sufficient enough for at least a localized/urban=20
scattered flash flood threat.

Farther north, convection is likely to be progressive across much=20
of the Lower Ohio Valley along with potential for inhibited=20
destabilization due to more widespread convection across the Lower=20 Mississippi Valley. Too much uncertainty exists to reduce the=20
Marginal Risk area at this time. Notable exceptions to this general
regime exist, however, from northern Ohio into southern New York=20
State and Pennsylvania, where models suggest appreciable daytime=20
heating and moderate instability developing. Storms may not be all=20
that fast moving either in Pennsylvania as that region should=20
reside on the southern extent of stronger mid-level flow into=20
southeastern Canada. Convective coverage is a bit uncertain, but=20
any greater-than-anticipated coverage of convection in this=20
environment could locally raise flash flood concerns - especially=20
with low FFGs noted across that area.

Putnam/Cook


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 05 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...


...20Z Update...

The latest model guidance supports the prior forecast reasoning=20
with the potential for isolated heavy rainfall-producing storms as=20
moisture pools along the frontal boundary. There is some concern=20
that the front will be progressive enough that moisture/CAPE will=20
be swept out of south Texas before the start of the period limiting
any threat, but at least for now guidance retains at least some=20
potential. This is particularly true closer to the Gulf Coast=20
portion of the risk area where a surface wave and slower=20
progression of the front into the Gulf further east may keep the=20
front along the south Texas coast long enough to lead to some=20
storms.

Putnam

...Previous Discussion...

Maintained the Marginal Risk of Excessive rainfall area that was=20
introduced by the WPC Medium Range desk as a west- to- east=20
oriented front makes its way southward. Deeper moisture should be=20
pooling along and south of the boundary with precipitable water=20
values around 1.75 inches in place at the start of the outlook=20
period.

Given uncertainties detailed in the Day 2 period with respect to=20
the timing and placement...combined with the 03/00Z NCEP global=20
models now showing the front to be more progressive than in earlier
runs which led to CAPE being swept out of South Texas faster...was
not inclined to introduce a Slight Risk area at this point. At the
same point...spaghetti plots from the non-CAM ensembles still show
enough members with 1 inch QPF and a few contours of 2 inch QPF to
support keeping the Marginal area with only minor nudges around=20
the periphery.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!70Ixmd4yAaWGBEMXRxNRUMw8_PCKY-RLHMFwCljbyD0F= 9rZ70lD1J9E35v6Uv9ZHcLvAou-ndXpXRb8e_Kr7hW8rNN8$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!70Ixmd4yAaWGBEMXRxNRUMw8_PCKY-RLHMFwCljbyD0F= 9rZ70lD1J9E35v6Uv9ZHcLvAou-ndXpXRb8e_Kr76yHCIZk$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!70Ixmd4yAaWGBEMXRxNRUMw8_PCKY-RLHMFwCljbyD0F= 9rZ70lD1J9E35v6Uv9ZHcLvAou-ndXpXRb8e_Kr7-K5nWIo$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 040008
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
808 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Sat Apr 04 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 04 2026

...THERE IS SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS & MIDWEST...

A cold low in the Northern & Central Plains is moving eastward,
driving a wavy frontal boundary forward through the Southern &
Central Plains and luring a warm front north towards the Great
Lakes. Precipitable water values are roughly 1.25-1.5" through the
region, though lower in IA within the main cyclone's cold sector=20
and higher across central and southern TX. Downslope flow off the
Southern Rockies and northern Mexico has sustained a dry line
within the warm sector across portions of northwest TX and the
Trans Pecos region of TX. A broad area of 1000-2000 J/kg of ML CAPE
and effective bulk shear of 25-55 kts exists regionally, which
should maintain organized convection well into the overnight hours.

The areas for enhanced flash flood potential will exist from=20
southeast OK southwest toward central Texas and the Big Country, as
well as from central IL across the southeast portions of=20
Chicagoland into far northwest IN. Thunderstorms are expected to=20
grow in coverage as the low- level inflow from the Gulf ramps up=20
further. Hourly rain amounts are expected to peak around 2.5" with
additional local totals to 4" hinted at by the 12z REFS/18z HREF=20
output. This could occur in conjunction with mesocyclones, cell
training, or mergers between greater and lesser organized
convection.=20

Though less widespread, additional convection should continue to traverse
wet ground conditions across portions of Ohio, Pennsylvania,=20
southwest New York, and northern WV, supporting continued Marginal probabilities in that area through at least midnight.

Roth


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 04 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 05 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ARKLATEX AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

Much of convective evolution during the D2/Sat forecast period
will depend on convective details from lingering convection across
Arkansas and Texas left over from D1/Fri. East-northeastward
progression of a mid-level wave toward the Great Lakes will aid in southeastward movement of a cold front from the Plains through the Ozarks/Mid-Mississippi Valley during the forecast period. This
front will gradually become more parallel to weakening flow aloft
from Texas to Mississippi, supporting additional opportunities for
training convection as storms organize along remnant outflows and
backbuild, with the potential for areal average rainfall in the
1-2" range leading to isolated instances of flash flooding.

A more focused threat has been identified supporting the
introduction of two Slight Risk areas within the broader Marginal
Risk. The first is across portions of the ArkLaTex southwest
through northeast Texas. The latest hi-res guidance supports the
maintenance of ongoing convection within the Slight Risk for the
day 1 period across Oklahoma continuing southeastward along the
front into Saturday morning. A wave of low pressure along the front
in northeast Texas will also help to maintain/enhance the
development of this convection as well as briefly slow the
progression of the front northeast through the ArkLaTex, allowing
for heavier rainfall totals as storms persist over the region for a
longer amount of time before the front begins to sweep southward
faster later into the afternoon. The latest 12Z CAMs show the
potential for locally heavy totals of 3-4" with rain rates of
2-2.5" per hour. The second region is across portions of the Lower
Mississippi Valley later in the day where moist southerly flow from
the Gulf will bring a pool of ~70 degree dewpoints northward.
These high dewpoints along with daytime heating will lead to a
region of 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE supporting the development of heavy-
rainfall producing thunderstorms ahead of the front. The
combination of this initial development in addition to a second
round of storms expected along the front with similarly high rain
rates of ~2" per hour will also lead to the potential of locally
heavier totals in the 3-4" range. While dry antecedent
conditions/high FFGs may limit the overall threat, the potential
for these higher rain rates/totals within the highlighted Slight
Risks should be sufficient enough for at least a localized/urban
scattered flash flood threat.

Farther north, convection is likely to be progressive across much
of the Lower Ohio Valley along with potential for inhibited
destabilization due to more widespread convection across the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Too much uncertainty exists to reduce the
Marginal Risk area at this time. Notable exceptions to this general
regime exist, however, from northern Ohio into southern New York
State and Pennsylvania, where models suggest appreciable daytime
heating and moderate instability developing. Storms may not be all
that fast moving either in Pennsylvania as that region should
reside on the southern extent of stronger mid-level flow into
southeastern Canada. Convective coverage is a bit uncertain, but
any greater-than-anticipated coverage of convection in this
environment could locally raise flash flood concerns - especially
with low FFGs noted across that area.

Putnam/Cook


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 05 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...


...20Z Update...

The latest model guidance supports the prior forecast reasoning
with the potential for isolated heavy rainfall-producing storms as
moisture pools along the frontal boundary. There is some concern
that the front will be progressive enough that moisture/CAPE will
be swept out of south Texas before the start of the period limiting
any threat, but at least for now guidance retains at least some
potential. This is particularly true closer to the Gulf Coast
portion of the risk area where a surface wave and slower
progression of the front into the Gulf further east may keep the
front along the south Texas coast long enough to lead to some
storms.

Putnam

...Previous Discussion...

Maintained the Marginal Risk of Excessive rainfall area that was
introduced by the WPC Medium Range desk as a west- to- east
oriented front makes its way southward. Deeper moisture should be
pooling along and south of the boundary with precipitable water
values around 1.75 inches in place at the start of the outlook
period.

Given uncertainties detailed in the Day 2 period with respect to
the timing and placement...combined with the 03/00Z NCEP global
models now showing the front to be more progressive than in earlier
runs which led to CAPE being swept out of South Texas faster...was
not inclined to introduce a Slight Risk area at this point. At the
same point...spaghetti plots from the non-CAM ensembles still show
enough members with 1 inch QPF and a few contours of 2 inch QPF to
support keeping the Marginal area with only minor nudges around
the periphery.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5AcJPTSxQ0xOVpfRGR7dLi8P8mhDSI4OCa8Aua0yAsRD= MeYpXv1is-_uKxXJTv5RRkVuJhFwN4oFBCEgcWS2cVdAVm4$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5AcJPTSxQ0xOVpfRGR7dLi8P8mhDSI4OCa8Aua0yAsRD= MeYpXv1is-_uKxXJTv5RRkVuJhFwN4oFBCEgcWS23CAA2dU$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5AcJPTSxQ0xOVpfRGR7dLi8P8mhDSI4OCa8Aua0yAsRD= MeYpXv1is-_uKxXJTv5RRkVuJhFwN4oFBCEgcWS2-tcsj-4$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 040344
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1144 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 04 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 05 2026

...THERE IS SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS & MIDWEST...

...04Z Outlook Update...
Introduced a Slight Risk in portions of central and eastern Ohio=20
for this update. A persistent band of convection continues to train
along an east-west oriented warm front bisecting the new Slight=20
Risk area. This band will likely persist for another 2-4 hours or=20
so as the warm front drifts slowly northward due to warm advection=20 processes. 2-5 inches of rain has fallen near the Mansfield area,=20
and hourly rates around 0.5 to 1 inch/hr are expected to continue=20
at times over saturated soils. Ongoing reports of flash flooding=20
have been received, and more are possible through the overnight=20
hours.

Cook

...Previous Discussion...

A cold low in the Northern & Central Plains is moving eastward,
driving a wavy frontal boundary forward through the Southern &
Central Plains and luring a warm front north towards the Great
Lakes. Precipitable water values are roughly 1.25-1.5" through the
region, though lower in IA within the main cyclone's cold sector
and higher across central and southern TX. Downslope flow off the
Southern Rockies and northern Mexico has sustained a dry line
within the warm sector across portions of northwest TX and the
Trans Pecos region of TX. A broad area of 1000-2000 J/kg of ML CAPE
and effective bulk shear of 25-55 kts exists regionally, which
should maintain organized convection well into the overnight hours.

The areas for enhanced flash flood potential will exist from
southeast OK southwest toward central Texas and the Big Country, as
well as from central IL across the southeast portions of
Chicagoland into far northwest IN. Thunderstorms are expected to
grow in coverage as the low- level inflow from the Gulf ramps up
further. Hourly rain amounts are expected to peak around 2.5" with
additional local totals to 4" hinted at by the 12z REFS/18z HREF
output. This could occur in conjunction with mesocyclones, cell
training, or mergers between greater and lesser organized
convection.

Though less widespread, additional convection should continue to traverse
wet ground conditions across portions of Ohio, Pennsylvania,
southwest New York, and northern WV, supporting continued Marginal probabilities in that area through at least midnight.

Roth


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 05 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ARKLATEX AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

Much of convective evolution during the D2/Sat forecast period
will depend on convective details from lingering convection across
Arkansas and Texas left over from D1/Fri. East-northeastward
progression of a mid-level wave toward the Great Lakes will aid in southeastward movement of a cold front from the Plains through the Ozarks/Mid-Mississippi Valley during the forecast period. This
front will gradually become more parallel to weakening flow aloft
from Texas to Mississippi, supporting additional opportunities for
training convection as storms organize along remnant outflows and
backbuild, with the potential for areal average rainfall in the
1-2" range leading to isolated instances of flash flooding.

A more focused threat has been identified supporting the
introduction of two Slight Risk areas within the broader Marginal
Risk. The first is across portions of the ArkLaTex southwest
through northeast Texas. The latest hi-res guidance supports the
maintenance of ongoing convection within the Slight Risk for the
day 1 period across Oklahoma continuing southeastward along the
front into Saturday morning. A wave of low pressure along the front
in northeast Texas will also help to maintain/enhance the
development of this convection as well as briefly slow the
progression of the front northeast through the ArkLaTex, allowing
for heavier rainfall totals as storms persist over the region for a
longer amount of time before the front begins to sweep southward
faster later into the afternoon. The latest 12Z CAMs show the
potential for locally heavy totals of 3-4" with rain rates of
2-2.5" per hour. The second region is across portions of the Lower
Mississippi Valley later in the day where moist southerly flow from
the Gulf will bring a pool of ~70 degree dewpoints northward.
These high dewpoints along with daytime heating will lead to a
region of 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE supporting the development of heavy-
rainfall producing thunderstorms ahead of the front. The
combination of this initial development in addition to a second
round of storms expected along the front with similarly high rain
rates of ~2" per hour will also lead to the potential of locally
heavier totals in the 3-4" range. While dry antecedent
conditions/high FFGs may limit the overall threat, the potential
for these higher rain rates/totals within the highlighted Slight
Risks should be sufficient enough for at least a localized/urban
scattered flash flood threat.

Farther north, convection is likely to be progressive across much
of the Lower Ohio Valley along with potential for inhibited
destabilization due to more widespread convection across the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Too much uncertainty exists to reduce the
Marginal Risk area at this time. Notable exceptions to this general
regime exist, however, from northern Ohio into southern New York
State and Pennsylvania, where models suggest appreciable daytime
heating and moderate instability developing. Storms may not be all
that fast moving either in Pennsylvania as that region should
reside on the southern extent of stronger mid-level flow into
southeastern Canada. Convective coverage is a bit uncertain, but
any greater-than-anticipated coverage of convection in this
environment could locally raise flash flood concerns - especially
with low FFGs noted across that area.

Putnam/Cook


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...


...20Z Update...

The latest model guidance supports the prior forecast reasoning
with the potential for isolated heavy rainfall-producing storms as
moisture pools along the frontal boundary. There is some concern
that the front will be progressive enough that moisture/CAPE will
be swept out of south Texas before the start of the period limiting
any threat, but at least for now guidance retains at least some
potential. This is particularly true closer to the Gulf Coast
portion of the risk area where a surface wave and slower
progression of the front into the Gulf further east may keep the
front along the south Texas coast long enough to lead to some
storms.

Putnam

...Previous Discussion...

Maintained the Marginal Risk of Excessive rainfall area that was
introduced by the WPC Medium Range desk as a west- to- east
oriented front makes its way southward. Deeper moisture should be
pooling along and south of the boundary with precipitable water
values around 1.75 inches in place at the start of the outlook
period.

Given uncertainties detailed in the Day 2 period with respect to
the timing and placement...combined with the 03/00Z NCEP global
models now showing the front to be more progressive than in earlier
runs which led to CAPE being swept out of South Texas faster...was
not inclined to introduce a Slight Risk area at this point. At the
same point...spaghetti plots from the non-CAM ensembles still show
enough members with 1 inch QPF and a few contours of 2 inch QPF to
support keeping the Marginal area with only minor nudges around
the periphery.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_FoGcwBaGa5dQI_05dalXmICBNqjcPtcHZWkT7i8soty= nQ4iKYTo8WxTefCnxvQilRHDw2gQQf0rZuQKMnwtLQW0YLs$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_FoGcwBaGa5dQI_05dalXmICBNqjcPtcHZWkT7i8soty= nQ4iKYTo8WxTefCnxvQilRHDw2gQQf0rZuQKMnwtslCS6FA$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_FoGcwBaGa5dQI_05dalXmICBNqjcPtcHZWkT7i8soty= nQ4iKYTo8WxTefCnxvQilRHDw2gQQf0rZuQKMnwtWCyK4KE$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 040827
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 04 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 05 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A PORTION OF THE=20
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...

Much of convective evolution today depends on details about how=20
much convection lingers and exactly where the convection is located
this morning across Arkansas and Texas. East-northeastward=20
progression of a mid-level wave toward the Great Lakes will aid in southeastward movement of a cold front into the ARKLATEX and Lower
Mississippi Valley Eventually, the front will oriented more=20
parallel to weakening flow aloft supporting additional=20
opportunities for training convection as storms organize along=20
remnant outflows and backbuild, with the potential for areal=20
average rainfall in the 1-2" range leading to isolated instances of
flash flooding.=20

Maintained the Slight Risk area over portions of Texas and Arkansas
ahead of convection moving out of Oklahoma and northern Texas from
overnight prior of the start of the Day 1 period at 12Z Saturday.
Surface analysis showed a wave of low pressure along the front in=20
northeast Texas will also help to maintain/enhance the development=20
of this convection as well as briefly slow the progression of the=20
front northeast through the ArkLaTex, allowing for heavier rainfall
totals as storms persist over the region for a longer amount of=20
time before the front begins to sweep southward faster later into=20
the afternoon.=20

Also maintained the separate Slight Risk area to the east over portions
of the Lower Mississippi Valley later today as moist southerly flow
from the Gulf taps a pool of ~70 degree dewpoints and draws that
airmass northward. These high dewpoints along with daytime heating
will lead to a region of 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE supporting the=20
development of heavy- rainfall producing thunderstorms ahead of the
front. The combination of this initial development in addition to=20
a second round of storms expected along the front with similarly=20
high rain rates of ~2" per hour will also lead to the potential of=20
locally heavier totals in the 3-4" range. While dry antecedent=20 conditions/high FFGs may limit the overall threat, the potential=20
for these higher rain rates/totals within the highlighted Slight=20
Risks should be sufficient enough for at least a localized/urban=20
scattered flash flood threat.

Farther north, introduced a Slight risk area over portions of
northern Ohio and northern Indiana due to a combination of locally
heavy rainfall overnight falling on areas where the 1-hour flash
flood guidance was locally as low as 1 inch and the approach of a
front from the west which will potentially act to focus another
round of showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall rates are not likely=20
to be all that impressive nor will the duration of the rainfall be=20 particularly long due to the progressive nature of the front and=20
the strengthening flow aloft. Even so...recent rainfall has made=20
the area more susceptible to problems with flooding and run-off.

Bann

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 05 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS=20
OF SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...

Much like model runs over the past day or two...the suite of
numerical guidance from 04/00Z has continued to trend a bit faster
with the arrival of a cold front from the north. This adds to the
concern that moisture and instability will be swept out of the area
very early in the Day 2 period...if not before the period begins at
12Z on Sunday. Spaghetti plots of QPF continue to show enough
members with post-frontal amounts in the 1 inch to 2 inch range to
keep the Marginal in place...but the area continued to be
increasing confined to coastal areas and the deep south portion of
Texas.

Bann

Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7Hb8yQHRimBqTICPufyOVtoiWp1NEPvgCBwA-LTAAc_E= zcR5ECEUlddP0sHqzkWn6j8KaJm6zl86d2-WRLhgJg6NkvM$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7Hb8yQHRimBqTICPufyOVtoiWp1NEPvgCBwA-LTAAc_E= zcR5ECEUlddP0sHqzkWn6j8KaJm6zl86d2-WRLhgPJOUpLg$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7Hb8yQHRimBqTICPufyOVtoiWp1NEPvgCBwA-LTAAc_E= zcR5ECEUlddP0sHqzkWn6j8KaJm6zl86d2-WRLhggwp532E$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 041552
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1152 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sat Apr 04 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 05 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A PORTION OF THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

...South-Central Texas into ArkLaTex...

Cold front position is currently analyzed just to the east of the
DFW metro with heavy rain migrating into northeast TX and the
ArkLaTex. Expect this area to be a focal point this afternoon as
frontal convergence and a modestly unstable environment will aid
in some heavier rainfall coverage with totals between 2-4"
expected. Upstream trends in precip magnitude signal this range to
be pretty consistent with some localized flash flooding occurring
where heavy rain persists for 2+ hours. Right now the best spot is
across the area stretching from Texarkana to Tyler where models
have been consistent with a band of heavier precip leading to
precip totals >3" in areas. Antecedent conditions initially are
very dry, so this will curb some of the threat upfront, but
persistent heavy rainfall could still spur up some flash flood
prospects, especially inside the urban areas along I-30 and I-20.

Further southwest into hillier terrain of south-central TX along
I-35, consensus has grown for a round of heavy thunderstorms to
impact areas from Waco down to just north of San Antonio. PWATs
running around the 99th percentile climatologically, as noted by=20
the latest 12z RAOB from KFWD with a similar environment situated=20
across much of east TX should be sufficient for efficient rainfall
rates between 2-3"/hr at peak intensity. This is highlighted well
within the 12z HREF hourly probs of >2"/hr running between 20-35%
within the I-35 corridor extending from Waco, south. This area is
notoriously more flashy due to the topographic composition and
sprawling urbanization factors lined up across the interstate
domain. It will not take much to cause some local issues with
flash flooding in any strong cells that materialize. The SLGT risk
was expanded south given the above, and in conjunction with
coordination from the local WFO's out of Houston and Austin/San
Antonio as it encompasses portions of their respective CWA's.

...Lower Mississippi Valley...

The SLGT risk over MS/LA was generally maintained with the only
viable change being the addition of the risk introduced into the
New Orleans metro. This area has a split in CAMs on whether heavy
thunderstorm activity encroaches the area from the south as
prevailing southerly flow within the confluent pattern between the
front to the west and sprawling surface ridge to the east should
keep a moist, unstable airmass in place for the entirety of the
period. If any convection makes it to the area, it has the
potential to pack a punch as the environmental conditions provide
the opportunity for a quick 2-4" of rainfall as indicated by
moderate to high neighborhood probabilities within the latest HREF
(40-70%) for exceeding 2" of rain this period. The region further=20
north along the Mississippi, including the Jackson area are still
expected to see the greatest threat for heavy convection later this
evening as the axis of confluence and stronger forcing will combine
to bring a period of heavy rainfall prior to the frontal passage.
Considering the high EAS and neighborhood probabilities for >1" and

2" respectively, there was no reason to deviate from the previous

forecast.=20

...Ohio Valley into Western Pennsylvania...

A wavy quasi-stationary front positioned from IL to PA will be a
focal point for convective development later today with a cold
front approach from the west as a primary surface low lifts
northeast through the Great Lakes. The area along I-76 in Ohio and
points southeast to Pittsburgh have some of the lower FFG's in the
country currently, all of which due to previous days of impact that
led to scattered flash flood issuances and moderate river flooding
in the vicinity. A well-defined axis of confluent flow across the
Mid Atlantic to Ohio Valley will allow for the prospects of
scattered convection capable of localized flash flooding,
especially in the corridor that has been heavily impacted in recent
days. The overall output from the hi-res isn't necessarily
impressive, but multiple CAMs do try to drop a quick inch or two
within that domain that's more sensitive to any additional
rainfall. The setup is conducive for these concerns, so despite the
modest probs indicated within the HREF neighborhood prob fields,
the antecedent conditions combined with those probabilities was
enough to maintain the SLGT risk from previous forecast, and expand
a bit further east to include the Pittsburgh metro and surrounds.=20

Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 05 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...

Much like model runs over the past day or two...the suite of
numerical guidance from 04/00Z has continued to trend a bit faster
with the arrival of a cold front from the north. This adds to the
concern that moisture and instability will be swept out of the area
very early in the Day 2 period...if not before the period begins at
12Z on Sunday. Spaghetti plots of QPF continue to show enough
members with post-frontal amounts in the 1 inch to 2 inch range to
keep the Marginal in place...but the area continued to be
increasing confined to coastal areas and the deep south portion of
Texas.

Bann

Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!48g2JjTmHynxm9_5goU5RiEZizIByI4z6ss2DI-Mn-g_= v1SH3Fjne6tiVZ6YggGuOvQDXCIzU2eCfc0OaHpuNTCaedI$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!48g2JjTmHynxm9_5goU5RiEZizIByI4z6ss2DI-Mn-g_= v1SH3Fjne6tiVZ6YggGuOvQDXCIzU2eCfc0OaHpu68gH52A$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!48g2JjTmHynxm9_5goU5RiEZizIByI4z6ss2DI-Mn-g_= v1SH3Fjne6tiVZ6YggGuOvQDXCIzU2eCfc0OaHpusUoO65M$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 041940
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sat Apr 04 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 05 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A PORTION OF THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

...South-Central Texas into ArkLaTex...

Cold front position is currently analyzed just to the east of the
DFW metro with heavy rain migrating into northeast TX and the
ArkLaTex. Expect this area to be a focal point this afternoon as
frontal convergence and a modestly unstable environment will aid
in some heavier rainfall coverage with totals between 2-4"
expected. Upstream trends in precip magnitude signal this range to
be pretty consistent with some localized flash flooding occurring
where heavy rain persists for 2+ hours. Right now the best spot is
across the area stretching from Texarkana to Tyler where models
have been consistent with a band of heavier precip leading to
precip totals >3" in areas. Antecedent conditions initially are
very dry, so this will curb some of the threat upfront, but
persistent heavy rainfall could still spur up some flash flood
prospects, especially inside the urban areas along I-30 and I-20.

Further southwest into hillier terrain of south-central TX along
I-35, consensus has grown for a round of heavy thunderstorms to
impact areas from Waco down to just north of San Antonio. PWATs
running around the 99th percentile climatologically, as noted by
the latest 12z RAOB from KFWD with a similar environment situated
across much of east TX should be sufficient for efficient rainfall
rates between 2-3"/hr at peak intensity. This is highlighted well
within the 12z HREF hourly probs of >2"/hr running between 20-35%
within the I-35 corridor extending from Waco, south. This area is
notoriously more flashy due to the topographic composition and
sprawling urbanization factors lined up across the interstate
domain. It will not take much to cause some local issues with
flash flooding in any strong cells that materialize. The SLGT risk
was expanded south given the above, and in conjunction with
coordination from the local WFO's out of Houston and Austin/San
Antonio as it encompasses portions of their respective CWA's.

...Lower Mississippi Valley...

The SLGT risk over MS/LA was generally maintained with the only
viable change being the addition of the risk introduced into the
New Orleans metro. This area has a split in CAMs on whether heavy
thunderstorm activity encroaches the area from the south as
prevailing southerly flow within the confluent pattern between the
front to the west and sprawling surface ridge to the east should
keep a moist, unstable airmass in place for the entirety of the
period. If any convection makes it to the area, it has the
potential to pack a punch as the environmental conditions provide
the opportunity for a quick 2-4" of rainfall as indicated by
moderate to high neighborhood probabilities within the latest HREF
(40-70%) for exceeding 2" of rain this period. The region further
north along the Mississippi, including the Jackson area are still
expected to see the greatest threat for heavy convection later this
evening as the axis of confluence and stronger forcing will combine
to bring a period of heavy rainfall prior to the frontal passage.
Considering the high EAS and neighborhood probabilities for >1" and

2" respectively, there was no reason to deviate from the previous

forecast.

...Ohio Valley into Western Pennsylvania...

A wavy quasi-stationary front positioned from IL to PA will be a
focal point for convective development later today with a cold
front approach from the west as a primary surface low lifts
northeast through the Great Lakes. The area along I-76 in Ohio and
points southeast to Pittsburgh have some of the lower FFG's in the
country currently, all of which due to previous days of impact that
led to scattered flash flood issuances and moderate river flooding
in the vicinity. A well-defined axis of confluent flow across the
Mid Atlantic to Ohio Valley will allow for the prospects of
scattered convection capable of localized flash flooding,
especially in the corridor that has been heavily impacted in recent
days. The overall output from the hi-res isn't necessarily
impressive, but multiple CAMs do try to drop a quick inch or two
within that domain that's more sensitive to any additional
rainfall. The setup is conducive for these concerns, so despite the
modest probs indicated within the HREF neighborhood prob fields,
the antecedent conditions combined with those probabilities was
enough to maintain the SLGT risk from previous forecast, and expand
a bit further east to include the Pittsburgh metro and surrounds.

Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 05 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...

Steady progression of a cold front from the north will lead to the
first 6hrs of the period being the highlight for any flash flooding
concerns across Deep South Texas. The trends have been for the
front to clear the Rio Grande in the morning, so some lingering
heavy rainfall across the four southernmost counties from Zapata to
Cameron will be the most susceptible to localized flash flood
concerns in the D2. The NAM Nest continues to be the least
progressive with the cold front leading to lingering heavy
convection up by Jim Hogg to Kleberg counties, so kept the MRGL
risk in a similar alignment to the previous forecast to account for
the potential. Much of the rainfall will be beneficial, so the
primary threat will be within the more urbanized portions of South
TX. Rainfall totals between 1-2" will be most common with prob
fields indicating a low-end potential for 3-5" in the strongest
storms.=20

Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann/Kleebauer


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5nj9ZsVIkgguE2deZtOLr1KPZDq3IXIjrAv6PMydbbyw= QLmKIJpGa5Hdt2wLDM6vIb5xdEhUstozAXuhwJTkqDUlHaA$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5nj9ZsVIkgguE2deZtOLr1KPZDq3IXIjrAv6PMydbbyw= QLmKIJpGa5Hdt2wLDM6vIb5xdEhUstozAXuhwJTkRD2iHDI$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5nj9ZsVIkgguE2deZtOLr1KPZDq3IXIjrAv6PMydbbyw= QLmKIJpGa5Hdt2wLDM6vIb5xdEhUstozAXuhwJTkLvhy9hs$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 050100
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Sun Apr 05 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 05 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...0100 UTC Update...
Based on the latest observational trends (including satellite,=20
radar, and mesoanalysis), we were able to remove the Slight Risk=20
area over eastern TX into the ArkLaTex, while also paring back the=20
western periphery of the Marginal Risk from TX to the Midwest-=20
western OH Valley. Meanwhile, we also removed the Slight Risk
across Northeast IN-northern OH-southwest PA, also based on=20
current trends and the latest high-res guidance (including recent=20
HRRR runs and 18Z HREF QPF exceedance probabilities). Per the=20
latest SPC mesoanalysis, MUCAPEs are struggling across this region,
generally ranging between 100-500 J/Kg, with the MUCAPE trends=20
actually down over the past several hours. Per the observed KPIT=20
00Z sounding, there's quite a bit of dry air below 750 mb, which is
helping to stabilize the lower layers with the rain falling from=20
the more elevated cloud bases.

Hurley


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 05 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...

Steady progression of a cold front from the north will lead to the
first 6hrs of the period being the highlight for any flash flooding
concerns across Deep South Texas. The trends have been for the
front to clear the Rio Grande in the morning, so some lingering
heavy rainfall across the four southernmost counties from Zapata to
Cameron will be the most susceptible to localized flash flood
concerns in the D2. The NAM Nest continues to be the least
progressive with the cold front leading to lingering heavy
convection up by Jim Hogg to Kleberg counties, so kept the MRGL
risk in a similar alignment to the previous forecast to account for
the potential. Much of the rainfall will be beneficial, so the
primary threat will be within the more urbanized portions of South
TX. Rainfall totals between 1-2" will be most common with prob
fields indicating a low-end potential for 3-5" in the strongest
storms.

Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann/Kleebauer


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8c-jISZJN6l6xQxNAzomBNPBiP2yjHx6AsLhSiLBZUGl= 5W_lHcSpqYc2kB-SnwoOi5rvU5wFp9nBTbT8kSGAi1_u8iM$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8c-jISZJN6l6xQxNAzomBNPBiP2yjHx6AsLhSiLBZUGl= 5W_lHcSpqYc2kB-SnwoOi5rvU5wFp9nBTbT8kSGA1wy3Shw$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8c-jISZJN6l6xQxNAzomBNPBiP2yjHx6AsLhSiLBZUGl= 5W_lHcSpqYc2kB-SnwoOi5rvU5wFp9nBTbT8kSGAht_Mq_4$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 050827
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 05 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER A PORTION OF
SOUTH TEXAS...

Surface analysis overnight showed a surface cold front having made
its way across much of Texas leading up to the start of the Day 1
period. Consequently, much of the deepest moisture and best
instability needed for intense downpours will have already been
ushered out to sea. The HREF and RRFS both lingered the potential
for 1 inch per hour rainfall across the southern-most tip of Texas
where post-frontal winds had enough of on-shore flow component into
the mid- or late-morning. Given the coverage of impervious surfaces
due to urbanization that would result in run-off...opted to=20
maintain the Marginal risk area after continuing to shrink the
areal coverage from the previous issuance.=20

Bann

Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann

Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 08 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EAST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

A cold front will be passing over Florida and provide a focus for=20
above average moisture there and possibly into Gulf Coastal areas.=20
The strongest signals from the 05/00Z numerical guidance was for
the heaviest rainfall to be off-shore on Tuesday. Even so...post-
frontal on-shore flow has could allow for some showers and
thunderstorms to come on-shore with localized downpours.

Bann

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5S0roDWACkQVW6zqESm5BSb-Xl_74lVo2S6ZhiT4ygMT= VusdtAcAJRGUVl7fV-Su5zpQwpzN-iBJxdDdfahM9Sm-qkg$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5S0roDWACkQVW6zqESm5BSb-Xl_74lVo2S6ZhiT4ygMT= VusdtAcAJRGUVl7fV-Su5zpQwpzN-iBJxdDdfahMdJYGPcg$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5S0roDWACkQVW6zqESm5BSb-Xl_74lVo2S6ZhiT4ygMT= VusdtAcAJRGUVl7fV-Su5zpQwpzN-iBJxdDdfahMbcvyuq8$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 051547
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1147 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sun Apr 05 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER A PORTION OF
SOUTH TEXAS...

16Z update... The latest observations continue to show convection
across South Texas this morning although coverage and intensity
have been decreasing from the west. Hires guidance is depicting
hourly rainfall rates of at least 0.50"/hr persisting at least=20
into the mid afternoon hours, especially along the coast and points
inland. The Marginal Risk was trimmed across the western/northern=20
boundary to account for observations and model trends.

Campbell

Previous discussion... Surface analysis overnight showed a surface
cold front having made its way across much of Texas leading up to=20
the start of the Day 1 period. Consequently, much of the deepest=20
moisture and best instability needed for intense downpours will=20
have already been ushered out to sea. The HREF and RRFS both=20
lingered the potential for 1 inch per hour rainfall across the=20
southern-most tip of Texas where post-frontal winds had enough of=20
on-shore flow component into the mid- or late-morning. Given the=20
coverage of impervious surfaces due to urbanization that would=20
result in run-off...opted to maintain the Marginal risk area after=20 continuing to shrink the areal coverage from the previous issuance.

Bann

Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann

Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 08 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EAST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

A cold front will be passing over Florida and provide a focus for
above average moisture there and possibly into Gulf Coastal areas.
The strongest signals from the 05/00Z numerical guidance was for
the heaviest rainfall to be off-shore on Tuesday. Even so...post-
frontal on-shore flow has could allow for some showers and
thunderstorms to come on-shore with localized downpours.

Bann

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9GLvBTRQBmPb4XHzAJ4WGXm9ZXfcsPhzTPGLWljdjUkm= HWJWJE_sNVXfQvJKj4n_0dxBP7QINg8AueIuxcX9bCboy5Q$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9GLvBTRQBmPb4XHzAJ4WGXm9ZXfcsPhzTPGLWljdjUkm= HWJWJE_sNVXfQvJKj4n_0dxBP7QINg8AueIuxcX9qUd_how$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9GLvBTRQBmPb4XHzAJ4WGXm9ZXfcsPhzTPGLWljdjUkm= HWJWJE_sNVXfQvJKj4n_0dxBP7QINg8AueIuxcX9w7J9QA4$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 051953
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sun Apr 05 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER A PORTION OF
SOUTH TEXAS...

16Z update... The latest observations continue to show convection
across South Texas this morning although coverage and intensity
have been decreasing from the west. Hires guidance is depicting
hourly rainfall rates of at least 0.50"/hr persisting at least
into the mid afternoon hours, especially along the coast and points
inland. The Marginal Risk was trimmed across the western/northern
boundary to account for observations and model trends.

Campbell

Previous discussion... Surface analysis overnight showed a surface
cold front having made its way across much of Texas leading up to
the start of the Day 1 period. Consequently, much of the deepest
moisture and best instability needed for intense downpours will
have already been ushered out to sea. The HREF and RRFS both
lingered the potential for 1 inch per hour rainfall across the
southern-most tip of Texas where post-frontal winds had enough of
on-shore flow component into the mid- or late-morning. Given the
coverage of impervious surfaces due to urbanization that would
result in run-off...opted to maintain the Marginal risk area after
continuing to shrink the areal coverage from the previous issuance.

Bann

Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA...

The trailing tail of a cold front advancing offshore the East Coast
will be slowly moving through central portions of the state during
this period; which will provide a focus for showers and
thunderstorms to fire up along within the moist tropical airmass.
Hi-res guidance is suggesting several hours where rainfall rates
pulsate between 0.50"/hr to 3+"/hr. These rates may reach or exceed
local FFG in isolated locations therefore a Marginal Risk area was
raised.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 08 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EAST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

21Z update... Maintained the Marginal Risk area with no=20
adjustments made.

Campbell

A cold front will be passing over Florida and provide a focus for
above average moisture there and possibly into Gulf Coastal areas.
The strongest signals from the 05/00Z numerical guidance was for
the heaviest rainfall to be off-shore on Tuesday. Even so...post-
frontal on-shore flow has could allow for some showers and
thunderstorms to come on-shore with localized downpours.

Bann

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5Kq_xyLUv-MfQW6spfLjpLgIN3RbKrRM0MK1Yq0k5WFI= Wpp-vSPUnNJZ8Zd5GtYbsxPwjfJsYop41MJ-LZG5FAtVbNU$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5Kq_xyLUv-MfQW6spfLjpLgIN3RbKrRM0MK1Yq0k5WFI= Wpp-vSPUnNJZ8Zd5GtYbsxPwjfJsYop41MJ-LZG5ZXzMA-4$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5Kq_xyLUv-MfQW6spfLjpLgIN3RbKrRM0MK1Yq0k5WFI= Wpp-vSPUnNJZ8Zd5GtYbsxPwjfJsYop41MJ-LZG5GNSVgrE$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 052058
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
458 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Day 1
Valid 2056Z Sun Apr 05 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hurley


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA...

The trailing tail of a cold front advancing offshore the East Coast
will be slowly moving through central portions of the state during
this period; which will provide a focus for showers and
thunderstorms to fire up along within the moist tropical airmass.
Hi-res guidance is suggesting several hours where rainfall rates
pulsate between 0.50"/hr to 3+"/hr. These rates may reach or exceed
local FFG in isolated locations therefore a Marginal Risk area was
raised.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 08 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EAST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

21Z update... Maintained the Marginal Risk area with no
adjustments made.

Campbell

A cold front will be passing over Florida and provide a focus for
above average moisture there and possibly into Gulf Coastal areas.
The strongest signals from the 05/00Z numerical guidance was for
the heaviest rainfall to be off-shore on Tuesday. Even so...post-
frontal on-shore flow has could allow for some showers and
thunderstorms to come on-shore with localized downpours.

Bann

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_bmK-y6TVaiUi1c3NjFJiArSX237AEaCxvS_RSbFfJ0y= Sn7YCXNxb7tlMxazjomHq-FZh1vvtLD05IOwx6DiCFNlN24$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_bmK-y6TVaiUi1c3NjFJiArSX237AEaCxvS_RSbFfJ0y= Sn7YCXNxb7tlMxazjomHq-FZh1vvtLD05IOwx6DiB8bZ9nE$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_bmK-y6TVaiUi1c3NjFJiArSX237AEaCxvS_RSbFfJ0y= Sn7YCXNxb7tlMxazjomHq-FZh1vvtLD05IOwx6Diisc4g9c$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 060037
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
837 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Mon Apr 06 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hurley


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA...

The trailing tail of a cold front advancing offshore the East Coast
will be slowly moving through central portions of the state during
this period; which will provide a focus for showers and
thunderstorms to fire up along within the moist tropical airmass.
Hi-res guidance is suggesting several hours where rainfall rates
pulsate between 0.50"/hr to 3+"/hr. These rates may reach or exceed
local FFG in isolated locations therefore a Marginal Risk area was
raised.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 08 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EAST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

21Z update... Maintained the Marginal Risk area with no
adjustments made.

Campbell

A cold front will be passing over Florida and provide a focus for
above average moisture there and possibly into Gulf Coastal areas.
The strongest signals from the 05/00Z numerical guidance was for
the heaviest rainfall to be off-shore on Tuesday. Even so...post-
frontal on-shore flow has could allow for some showers and
thunderstorms to come on-shore with localized downpours.

Bann

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_ko8VLq_4Xlc9UIz7W9glTrTxJd6navC3RP33hgK0V31= my1ZB0HVPVJUsUk-3zX0-jpvCv5-MGx_XUibCs-kxN3-vLo$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_ko8VLq_4Xlc9UIz7W9glTrTxJd6navC3RP33hgK0V31= my1ZB0HVPVJUsUk-3zX0-jpvCv5-MGx_XUibCs-kqbqp0qA$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_ko8VLq_4Xlc9UIz7W9glTrTxJd6navC3RP33hgK0V31= my1ZB0HVPVJUsUk-3zX0-jpvCv5-MGx_XUibCs-kf2PSn1U$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 060817
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA...

Maintained the Marginal Risk area introduced on Sunday across
portions of Florida as a trailing tail of a cold front advancing=20
offshore the East Coast will be slowly moving through central=20
portions of the state. The front will provide a focus for showers=20
and thunderstorms to fire up along within the moist tropical=20
airmass. The 00Z HREF and RRFS neighborhood probabilities showed
several hours during which the rainfall rates pulsate between=20
0.50"/hr to 3+"/hr mainly from this afternoon into the evening.
Consequently there were not changes made.

Bann

Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 08 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EAST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

A cold front will be passing over Florida which allows for deep
moisture to pool across the southern two-thirds of the peninsula with precipitable water values reaching into the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range=20
and moisture flux convergence along the front acts to focus and=20
support convection. The concern about excessive rainfall arises
from the locally heavy rainfall rates from any convection that
develops within such an environment as well as the fact that the
front should be slowing its southward motion keeps the window of=20
opportunity open longer for enhanced rainfall totals.=20

Bann

Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Apr 08 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 09 2026

...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

A front draped across the southern portion of the Florida=20
peninsula acting as a focus for thunderstorms capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall across parts of the Florida peninsula. Some
of the guidance has a mesoscale low over the eastern Gulf that
begins to move towards the peninsula and starts to lift the front
northward during the latter part of the period. The inference is
that low level flow will be strengthening...especially on the
eastern side of the peninsula...which may enhance rainfall=20
amounts compared with amounts on Tuesday. Given the lack of=20
agreement within the suite of numerical guidance on where...or=20
if...this occurs preludes more than a Marginal risk area.=20

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_PwyYKdg7fygMfXX0klw0ImW4KjuaKNWzwaBvUR9Txwm= TG38FKcLYtxl6jWbJlaZyNSNx9AK0-SrtcDbQLj947G2YG4$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_PwyYKdg7fygMfXX0klw0ImW4KjuaKNWzwaBvUR9Txwm= TG38FKcLYtxl6jWbJlaZyNSNx9AK0-SrtcDbQLj99GH4f-g$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_PwyYKdg7fygMfXX0klw0ImW4KjuaKNWzwaBvUR9Txwm= TG38FKcLYtxl6jWbJlaZyNSNx9AK0-SrtcDbQLj9uuI4BSU$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 061551
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1151 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Mon Apr 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA...

16Z update... Consensus continues to favor heavier rainfall
concentrating over portions of the central peninsula and the=20
eastern coastline with hourly rates 0.50"/hr to 4.00"/hr. There is
a trend for western portions of the peninsula to have a few hours
with hourly rates up to 1.5"/hr however with the sea breeze in
place the cells will track back toward the center of the state.
With that in mind there was some adjustments of the western
boundary made to account for this but kept the western coastline
out of the Marginal.

Campbell

Previous discussion... Maintained the Marginal Risk area=20
introduced on Sunday across portions of Florida as a trailing tail=20
of a cold front advancing offshore the East Coast will be slowly=20
moving through central portions of the state. The front will=20
provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms to fire up along=20
within the moist tropical airmass. The 00Z HREF and RRFS=20
neighborhood probabilities showed several hours during which the=20
rainfall rates pulsate between 0.50"/hr to 3+"/hr mainly from this=20
afternoon into the evening. Consequently there were not changes=20
made.

Bann

Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 08 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EAST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

A cold front will be passing over Florida which allows for deep
moisture to pool across the southern two-thirds of the peninsula with precipitable water values reaching into the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range
and moisture flux convergence along the front acts to focus and
support convection. The concern about excessive rainfall arises
from the locally heavy rainfall rates from any convection that
develops within such an environment as well as the fact that the
front should be slowing its southward motion keeps the window of
opportunity open longer for enhanced rainfall totals.

Bann

Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Apr 08 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 09 2026

...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

A front draped across the southern portion of the Florida
peninsula acting as a focus for thunderstorms capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall across parts of the Florida peninsula. Some
of the guidance has a mesoscale low over the eastern Gulf that
begins to move towards the peninsula and starts to lift the front
northward during the latter part of the period. The inference is
that low level flow will be strengthening...especially on the
eastern side of the peninsula...which may enhance rainfall
amounts compared with amounts on Tuesday. Given the lack of
agreement within the suite of numerical guidance on where...or
if...this occurs preludes more than a Marginal risk area.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4g8C9QjeZmwcQJEMJby3ldBFouRW_BfnEZ-v29ItxKa0= F0RDwOx51HrFSggoelyl-ZsrDniuttqnI8A24GSbQ_7-KH4$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4g8C9QjeZmwcQJEMJby3ldBFouRW_BfnEZ-v29ItxKa0= F0RDwOx51HrFSggoelyl-ZsrDniuttqnI8A24GSb-B9c1EQ$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4g8C9QjeZmwcQJEMJby3ldBFouRW_BfnEZ-v29ItxKa0= F0RDwOx51HrFSggoelyl-ZsrDniuttqnI8A24GSbg8QGfj4$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 061910
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Mon Apr 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA...

16Z update... Consensus continues to favor heavier rainfall
concentrating over portions of the central peninsula and the
eastern coastline with hourly rates 0.50"/hr to 4.00"/hr. There is
a trend for western portions of the peninsula to have a few hours
with hourly rates up to 1.5"/hr however with the sea breeze in
place the cells will track back toward the center of the state.
With that in mind there was some adjustments of the western
boundary made to account for this but kept the western coastline
out of the Marginal.

Campbell

Previous discussion... Maintained the Marginal Risk area
introduced on Sunday across portions of Florida as a trailing tail
of a cold front advancing offshore the East Coast will be slowly
moving through central portions of the state. The front will
provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms to fire up along
within the moist tropical airmass. The 00Z HREF and RRFS
neighborhood probabilities showed several hours during which the
rainfall rates pulsate between 0.50"/hr to 3+"/hr mainly from this
afternoon into the evening. Consequently there were not changes
made.

Bann

Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 08 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EAST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

21Z... Overall the environment described below is largely expected
to be the same. A small westward nudge of the boundary toward=20
central Broward and Miami-Dade Counties was made to reflect the
latest QPF trends.

Campbell

A cold front will be passing over Florida which allows for deep
moisture to pool across the southern two-thirds of the peninsula with precipitable water values reaching into the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range
and moisture flux convergence along the front acts to focus and
support convection. The concern about excessive rainfall arises
from the locally heavy rainfall rates from any convection that
develops within such an environment as well as the fact that the
front should be slowing its southward motion keeps the window of
opportunity open longer for enhanced rainfall totals.

Bann

Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Apr 08 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 09 2026

...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

21Z...Convection will stay mainly along the eastern coastline
maintaining an elevated threat for urban flash flooding concerns. A
small westward nudge of the boundary toward western Broward and=20
Miami- Dade/northward trim to central Miami- Dade Counties was made
for this period to reflect the latest QPF placement.

Campbell

A front draped across the southern portion of the Florida
peninsula acting as a focus for thunderstorms capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall across parts of the Florida peninsula. Some
of the guidance has a mesoscale low over the eastern Gulf that
begins to move towards the peninsula and starts to lift the front
northward during the latter part of the period. The inference is
that low level flow will be strengthening...especially on the
eastern side of the peninsula...which may enhance rainfall
amounts compared with amounts on Tuesday. Given the lack of
agreement within the suite of numerical guidance on where...or
if...this occurs preludes more than a Marginal risk area.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8ZfqXgg1kzhye97Bb8N_70IxIhi7f3s0pANLRjeSUJp8= NDq6CSjltp_r_ajFGToSvQXrauwGquNbF9drPoiuzZeoeAk$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8ZfqXgg1kzhye97Bb8N_70IxIhi7f3s0pANLRjeSUJp8= NDq6CSjltp_r_ajFGToSvQXrauwGquNbF9drPoiuNS61jt4$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8ZfqXgg1kzhye97Bb8N_70IxIhi7f3s0pANLRjeSUJp8= NDq6CSjltp_r_ajFGToSvQXrauwGquNbF9drPoiuhItuREc$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 070054
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
854 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Tue Apr 07 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA...

...0100 UTC Update...
Have adjusted the MGNL Risk area across potions of Central and=20
South FL based on the latest observational and short-term CAM=20
guidance trends. This included trimming the northern extent, i.e.=20
areas north of Orlando, which are now north of the front=20
(significantly more stable environment with much lower short-term=20
rainfall rates). Otherwise, we did expand the western periphery of=20
the MGNL Risk area to the Gulf Coast in the Fort Myers-Naples I-75=20
corridor. This again given the trends, including available deep-
layer instability south of the front per the latest SPC=20
mesoanalysis, along with the low-mid layer shear profile favoring=20 slow-moving clusters with some back-building and thus training=20
potential south of the front. This area also meshes with the latest
ML output, including the CSU UFVS ERO first-guess, along with the=20
more elevated probabilities for isolated 2 to 3+ in/hr rainfall=20
rates per the latest HREF and RRFS.

Hurley


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 08 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EAST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

21Z... Overall the environment described below is largely expected
to be the same. A small westward nudge of the boundary toward
central Broward and Miami-Dade Counties was made to reflect the
latest QPF trends.

Campbell

A cold front will be passing over Florida which allows for deep
moisture to pool across the southern two-thirds of the peninsula with precipitable water values reaching into the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range
and moisture flux convergence along the front acts to focus and
support convection. The concern about excessive rainfall arises
from the locally heavy rainfall rates from any convection that
develops within such an environment as well as the fact that the
front should be slowing its southward motion keeps the window of
opportunity open longer for enhanced rainfall totals.

Bann

Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Apr 08 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 09 2026

...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

21Z...Convection will stay mainly along the eastern coastline
maintaining an elevated threat for urban flash flooding concerns. A
small westward nudge of the boundary toward western Broward and
Miami- Dade/northward trim to central Miami- Dade Counties was made
for this period to reflect the latest QPF placement.

Campbell

A front draped across the southern portion of the Florida
peninsula acting as a focus for thunderstorms capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall across parts of the Florida peninsula. Some
of the guidance has a mesoscale low over the eastern Gulf that
begins to move towards the peninsula and starts to lift the front
northward during the latter part of the period. The inference is
that low level flow will be strengthening...especially on the
eastern side of the peninsula...which may enhance rainfall
amounts compared with amounts on Tuesday. Given the lack of
agreement within the suite of numerical guidance on where...or
if...this occurs preludes more than a Marginal risk area.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Z-TyKIUQOky4wbm7zNZQgmTGM7xm3P6qIJu1UdG25Ot= zErrtY52Y3Cj68UOcFLeWt34DtP_hl1s7UbTzNN9zChn_zo$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Z-TyKIUQOky4wbm7zNZQgmTGM7xm3P6qIJu1UdG25Ot= zErrtY52Y3Cj68UOcFLeWt34DtP_hl1s7UbTzNN9qbMWo2M$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Z-TyKIUQOky4wbm7zNZQgmTGM7xm3P6qIJu1UdG25Ot= zErrtY52Y3Cj68UOcFLeWt34DtP_hl1s7UbTzNN9vZNUESk$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 070828
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
428 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 08 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...

Introduced a Slight Risk area across the Atlantic side of the
peninsula in an environment conducive of focusing and sustaining
locally heavy rainfall amounts and rainfall rates into the evening
hours. There had been showers and some thunderstorms on Monday
afternoon and evening...but the approach of a mid and upper level
feature helped increase coverage of light to moderate rainfall in
the overnight hours prior to the start of the Day 1 period at
07/12Z. Thinking is that this will help prime the soils enough to
slow the intake a bit of additional rain later today.=20

Additional showers and thunderstorms should develop during the day
along a slow moving cold front making its way southward in an=20
atmosphere with precipitable water approaching 1.75 inches. That=20
should support some downpours anywhere along the central or=20
southern peninsula on the Atlantic side. Additionally...there looks
to be a period of renewed moisture infusion by strengthening=20
easterly winds off the Atlantic following frontal passage which=20
enhances the potential for flooding.=20

The 00Z runs of the HREF and RRFS both maintain 10 to 20 percent=20 neighborhood probabilities of 3 inches of rain in 3 hours (broadly=20
speaking) from Cape Canaveral to Miami until 08/00Z and roughly the
same range for 24 hour amounts exceeding 5 inches. Despite the=20
disagreement shown by HREF and RRFS exactly as to where the highest probabilities occur...the presence of ingredients along a corridor
that has stretches of surfaces impervious to water because of=20
urbanization supported an upgrade.

Bann

Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Apr 08 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 09 2026

...THERE IS A Marginal RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY...

The 07/00Z suite of numerical guidance lingered additional rainfall
into the Day 2 as a quasi stationary front remains present. Even
so...the guidance maintained focus mainly along the eastern=20
coastline as having an elevated threat for urban flash flooding=20
concerns. There were a few nudges based on the latest guidance but
the overall changes did not reflect a fundamental change in=20
forecast reasoning. The QPF did not normally suggest a Slight=20
risk...but the need for one will be revisited based on how much=20
rain falls and where it falls today and tonight.=20

Bann

Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 09 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

There is a growing consensus among the models for heavy to=20
excessive rainfall threat shaping up on Thursday given
strengthening return flow from the Gulf region encounters the
leading edge of colder air coming out of Canada and the northern
US. Precipitable water values between 0.8 and 1.0 inches and CAPE
values in excess of 1500 J per kg will encounter the
front...resulting in storms that could result in heavy to
potentially excessive rainfall Thursday into Thursday night/early
Friday.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8h1WE7bNeHG4-UX4lh7mz74mcvlTtZpvJ6M0SV0kudQy= ZgHWqPaGhaZC0nhIB9npVDhV0CR0TNerM1GIeSqYnGwXkhI$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8h1WE7bNeHG4-UX4lh7mz74mcvlTtZpvJ6M0SV0kudQy= ZgHWqPaGhaZC0nhIB9npVDhV0CR0TNerM1GIeSqYOtDDiFo$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8h1WE7bNeHG4-UX4lh7mz74mcvlTtZpvJ6M0SV0kudQy= ZgHWqPaGhaZC0nhIB9npVDhV0CR0TNerM1GIeSqYYakyG9A$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 071554
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1154 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue Apr 07 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 08 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

16Z Update: Weak shortwave trough across the eastern Gulf will
migrate through the Peninsula over the course of the afternoon and
early evening with a surface low progged just off the eastern FL
coast. Combination of deep layer moisture established across the
southern half of the Peninsula on the order of +1 to +2 deviations
above climo along with the aided ascent provided by the shortwave
and surface low alignment will create an environment favorable for
locally heavy rainfall along the eastern FL coast. There will
likely be a dual QPF maxima positioned near the Space Coast
(Daytona Beach to Cape Canaveral), as well as a second positioned
from West Palm Beach down to the Miami metro as noted via the
latest CAMs output and associated hi-res ensemble.=20

The area across the Space Coast will see the benefit of some RER
jet dynamics and prevailing east-northeast flow coupled between the
sprawling high across the northeastern CONUS and the surface
reflection off the southeastern FL coast. Current radar indicates
some modest frictional convergence in proximity to the Cape
Canaveral area which has been well-forecast over the last series of
HRRR/RRFS runs. 12z HREF neighborhood probabilities for >3" are
running between 60-80% between the area from Daytona Beach down to
just north of Melbourne, but only limited probs for >2" on the EAS
fields which signals more localized maxima compared to a larger
heavy rain footprint and broader flash flood potential. That said,
this area is still recovering from being impacted yesterday, so the
threat for flash flooding is a little higher than normal within any
stronger cells. The SLGT risk remains in place over this area down
through the east-central portion of the coast to account for this
threat.=20

Further south across southeastern FL, a frontal boundary is
analyzed from Fort Myers through West Palm Beach with a weak=20
shortwave progression over the western Gulf making headway into the
Peninsula. The combination of the surface reflection and added=20
ascent and shear pattern from the mid-level disturbance will likely
induce an area of convective development over the Everglades later
this afternoon, migrating eastward into the southeastern metro=20
corridor providing instances of scattered heavy rain areas that=20
could enhance flash flood prospects within the urban zones. Rates=20
from cells just off the coast this morning were able to reach=20
between 3-5"/hr already with the environment in place which lends=20
credence to those pockets of potentially heavy rainfall that could=20
spur up flash flooding in a short period of time. HREF neighborhood
probs for >3" are between 60-90% over the corridor from West Palm=20
down to Miami with the maximum likely over eastern Broward to=20
northern Miami-Dade. This makes sense given the positioning of the=20
boundary bisecting these areas which could be a focal point for=20
convection to develop and align before pivoting off the FL coast.=20
The SLGT risk from previous forecast was unchanged given the above.

Kleebauer
=20

Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Apr 08 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 09 2026

...THERE IS A Marginal RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY...

The 07/00Z suite of numerical guidance lingered additional rainfall
into the Day 2 as a quasi stationary front remains present. Even
so...the guidance maintained focus mainly along the eastern
coastline as having an elevated threat for urban flash flooding
concerns. There were a few nudges based on the latest guidance but
the overall changes did not reflect a fundamental change in
forecast reasoning. The QPF did not normally suggest a Slight
risk...but the need for one will be revisited based on how much
rain falls and where it falls today and tonight.

Bann

Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 09 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

There is a growing consensus among the models for heavy to
excessive rainfall threat shaping up on Thursday given
strengthening return flow from the Gulf region encounters the
leading edge of colder air coming out of Canada and the northern
US. Precipitable water values between 0.8 and 1.0 inches and CAPE
values in excess of 1500 J per kg will encounter the
front...resulting in storms that could result in heavy to
potentially excessive rainfall Thursday into Thursday night/early
Friday.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5ruf8ww4Jll_vxVtfxOuqhPTpxAuNzLjciyNCt8dBMgN= 1MkIO5FZxsIi4yMmb5XEt9Bq7-EIpguHXgTRHATYqO4ERvU$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5ruf8ww4Jll_vxVtfxOuqhPTpxAuNzLjciyNCt8dBMgN= 1MkIO5FZxsIi4yMmb5XEt9Bq7-EIpguHXgTRHATYlb_mI2g$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5ruf8ww4Jll_vxVtfxOuqhPTpxAuNzLjciyNCt8dBMgN= 1MkIO5FZxsIi4yMmb5XEt9Bq7-EIpguHXgTRHATYbBe5B5U$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 071952
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue Apr 07 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 08 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

16Z Update: Weak shortwave trough across the eastern Gulf will
migrate through the Peninsula over the course of the afternoon and
early evening with a surface low progged just off the eastern FL
coast. Combination of deep layer moisture established across the
southern half of the Peninsula on the order of +1 to +2 deviations
above climo along with the aided ascent provided by the shortwave
and surface low alignment will create an environment favorable for
locally heavy rainfall along the eastern FL coast. There will
likely be a dual QPF maxima positioned near the Space Coast
(Daytona Beach to Cape Canaveral), as well as a second positioned
from West Palm Beach down to the Miami metro as noted via the
latest CAMs output and associated hi-res ensemble.

The area across the Space Coast will see the benefit of some RER
jet dynamics and prevailing east-northeast flow coupled between the
sprawling high across the northeastern CONUS and the surface
reflection off the southeastern FL coast. Current radar indicates
some modest frictional convergence in proximity to the Cape
Canaveral area which has been well-forecast over the last series of
HRRR/RRFS runs. 12z HREF neighborhood probabilities for >3" are
running between 60-80% between the area from Daytona Beach down to
just north of Melbourne, but only limited probs for >2" on the EAS
fields which signals more localized maxima compared to a larger
heavy rain footprint and broader flash flood potential. That said,
this area is still recovering from being impacted yesterday, so the
threat for flash flooding is a little higher than normal within any
stronger cells. The SLGT risk remains in place over this area down
through the east-central portion of the coast to account for this
threat.

Further south across southeastern FL, a frontal boundary is
analyzed from Fort Myers through West Palm Beach with a weak
shortwave progression over the western Gulf making headway into the
Peninsula. The combination of the surface reflection and added
ascent and shear pattern from the mid-level disturbance will likely
induce an area of convective development over the Everglades later
this afternoon, migrating eastward into the southeastern metro
corridor providing instances of scattered heavy rain areas that
could enhance flash flood prospects within the urban zones. Rates
from cells just off the coast this morning were able to reach
between 3-5"/hr already with the environment in place which lends
credence to those pockets of potentially heavy rainfall that could
spur up flash flooding in a short period of time. HREF neighborhood
probs for >3" are between 60-90% over the corridor from West Palm
down to Miami with the maximum likely over eastern Broward to
northern Miami-Dade. This makes sense given the positioning of the
boundary bisecting these areas which could be a focal point for
convection to develop and align before pivoting off the FL coast.
The SLGT risk from previous forecast was unchanged given the above.

Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Apr 08 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 09 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF=20
THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

20Z Update: A persistent pattern of northeasterly flow into the=20
eastern FL Peninsula along with a quasi-stationary front bisecting=20
portions of the state will lead to another round of scattered=20
convective activity capable of localized flash flooding. The best=20
chance for this to occur will be across the urban settings along=20
the I-95 corridor stretching from Daytona Beach down to the Miami=20
metro with the latest HREF blended mean QPF generally heaviest near
the Treasure Coast. This is coincident with the alignment of the=20
stationary front where convergence would be maximized in the=20
vicinity of the front allowing storms to anchor and provide a more
prolonged heavy rain scenario when storms develop. Other prospects
for heavy rain will likely be along the immediate coast due to=20
frictional convergence spurred by the prevailing northeasterly=20
surface flow coupled with a moderate effective shear layer between=20
30-40kts out of the southwest. This setup is relatively favorable=20
for anchored storms along the immediately coastal plain, especially
when accompanied by at least modest instability, which is forecast
via a 500-1500 J/kg MUCAPE during Wednesday afternoon.=20

Areal neighborhood probabilities for >3" remains very similar to
today's output (50-80%) up and down a majority of the eastern FL
Peninsula with a targeted area situated across the Treasure Coast
and immediate Miami metro corridor. Some of the deterministic CAMs
outputs are fairly robust with 5-8" of rainfall in some areas that
see the prolonged convective anchoring that occurs within proximity
to the aforementioned front which at least signals a ceiling
outcome (10th percentile maxima) for the setup. PWATs will remain=20
above normal around 1-2 standard deviations above normal over the=20
southern half of FL which would be sufficient for those heavier=20
cores to materialize when convection occurs. Considering some=20
overlap over the past few days, especially the current D1 of a SLGT
risk, and in coordination with the Miami and Melbourne WFO's,=20
another SLGT risk was introduced for the new D2 update to account=20
for the threat.

Kleebauer
=20

Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 09 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...

20Z Update: The general synoptic pattern across the Central CONUS
remains consistent on a run-to-run basis as locally heavy rainfall
from Kansas to points east-northeast through Northern IL will allow
for a threat of isolated flash flooding on Thursday night into=20
Friday morning. A weak shortwave ejecting out of the Central=20
Rockies will intersect a slow-moving cold front propagating out of=20
the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains creating a focused axis of=20
ascent along and just ahead of the front as it migrates through the
Plains and Central Midwest. Areal QPF average of 1-3" is forecast
within vicinity of the front with much of the rain occurring in a
window between 00-12z Friday, a lot of the setup stemming from the
introduction of a modest nocturnal LLJ enticing convergence along
the front. The magnitude of rainfall and antecedent soil moisture
anomalies pin this into the traditional MRGL risk threshold, in
agreement with the latest CSU First Guess Fields.=20

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

There is a growing consensus among the models for heavy to
excessive rainfall threat shaping up on Thursday given
strengthening return flow from the Gulf region encounters the
leading edge of colder air coming out of Canada and the northern
US. Precipitable water values between 0.8 and 1.0 inches and CAPE
values in excess of 1500 J per kg will encounter the
front...resulting in storms that could result in heavy to
potentially excessive rainfall Thursday into Thursday night/early
Friday.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_QsLbH2nFRDu0jS7b3FfkX8WnhZgc-Asq_LhmlVWlVK7= ABaGxxN61Wg6LbABE2sI_KZpYexdDO3gBdiLS-eXbEbdOJ0$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_QsLbH2nFRDu0jS7b3FfkX8WnhZgc-Asq_LhmlVWlVK7= ABaGxxN61Wg6LbABE2sI_KZpYexdDO3gBdiLS-eXvqJvypQ$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_QsLbH2nFRDu0jS7b3FfkX8WnhZgc-Asq_LhmlVWlVK7= ABaGxxN61Wg6LbABE2sI_KZpYexdDO3gBdiLS-eXm1m3OnI$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 080022
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
822 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Wed Apr 08 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 08 2026

The excessive rainfall risks were removed from Florida given the
nocturnal downward trends in activity and instability. The upper
trough axis has also shifted east of the Peninsula, removing some
forcing. Localized heavy precip is likely overnight as abundant
moisture and some low level boundaries persist up near Daytona and
near Palm Beach. CAM guidance continues to indicate a diurnal ramp
up in heavy rain coverage over the eastern side of the FL=20
peninsula tomorrow where a Slight Risk remains in effect.

Jackson


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Apr 08 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 09 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

20Z Update: A persistent pattern of northeasterly flow into the
eastern FL Peninsula along with a quasi-stationary front bisecting
portions of the state will lead to another round of scattered
convective activity capable of localized flash flooding. The best
chance for this to occur will be across the urban settings along
the I-95 corridor stretching from Daytona Beach down to the Miami
metro with the latest HREF blended mean QPF generally heaviest near
the Treasure Coast. This is coincident with the alignment of the
stationary front where convergence would be maximized in the
vicinity of the front allowing storms to anchor and provide a more
prolonged heavy rain scenario when storms develop. Other prospects
for heavy rain will likely be along the immediate coast due to
frictional convergence spurred by the prevailing northeasterly
surface flow coupled with a moderate effective shear layer between
30-40kts out of the southwest. This setup is relatively favorable
for anchored storms along the immediately coastal plain, especially
when accompanied by at least modest instability, which is forecast
via a 500-1500 J/kg MUCAPE during Wednesday afternoon.

Areal neighborhood probabilities for >3" remains very similar to
today's output (50-80%) up and down a majority of the eastern FL
Peninsula with a targeted area situated across the Treasure Coast
and immediate Miami metro corridor. Some of the deterministic CAMs
outputs are fairly robust with 5-8" of rainfall in some areas that
see the prolonged convective anchoring that occurs within proximity
to the aforementioned front which at least signals a ceiling
outcome (10th percentile maxima) for the setup. PWATs will remain
above normal around 1-2 standard deviations above normal over the
southern half of FL which would be sufficient for those heavier
cores to materialize when convection occurs. Considering some
overlap over the past few days, especially the current D1 of a SLGT
risk, and in coordination with the Miami and Melbourne WFO's,
another SLGT risk was introduced for the new D2 update to account
for the threat.

Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 09 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...

20Z Update: The general synoptic pattern across the Central CONUS
remains consistent on a run-to-run basis as locally heavy rainfall
from Kansas to points east-northeast through Northern IL will allow
for a threat of isolated flash flooding on Thursday night into
Friday morning. A weak shortwave ejecting out of the Central
Rockies will intersect a slow-moving cold front propagating out of
the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains creating a focused axis of
ascent along and just ahead of the front as it migrates through the
Plains and Central Midwest. Areal QPF average of 1-3" is forecast
within vicinity of the front with much of the rain occurring in a
window between 00-12z Friday, a lot of the setup stemming from the
introduction of a modest nocturnal LLJ enticing convergence along
the front. The magnitude of rainfall and antecedent soil moisture
anomalies pin this into the traditional MRGL risk threshold, in
agreement with the latest CSU First Guess Fields.

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

There is a growing consensus among the models for heavy to
excessive rainfall threat shaping up on Thursday given
strengthening return flow from the Gulf region encounters the
leading edge of colder air coming out of Canada and the northern
US. Precipitable water values between 0.8 and 1.0 inches and CAPE
values in excess of 1500 J per kg will encounter the
front...resulting in storms that could result in heavy to
potentially excessive rainfall Thursday into Thursday night/early
Friday.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9ImNiZpGxaTQmD9dzPoSpHzsf4dluczApXALNGs5tiOd= SV6kcaPCpA2zW2fyIspImzr-1w3fN8GsvBzTxDr3toA3iV8$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9ImNiZpGxaTQmD9dzPoSpHzsf4dluczApXALNGs5tiOd= SV6kcaPCpA2zW2fyIspImzr-1w3fN8GsvBzTxDr3U_vNeJM$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9ImNiZpGxaTQmD9dzPoSpHzsf4dluczApXALNGs5tiOd= SV6kcaPCpA2zW2fyIspImzr-1w3fN8GsvBzTxDr3rJkFF00$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 080825
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
425 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Apr 08 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 09 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

A persistent pattern of northeasterly flow into the eastern FL=20
Peninsula along with a quasi-stationary front bisecting portions of
the state will lead to another round of scattered convective=20
activity starting later today which may produce localized flash=20
flooding. The best chance for this to occur will be across the=20
urban settings along the I-95 corridor stretching from Daytona=20
Beach down to the Miami metro with the latest HREF blended mean QPF
generally heaviest near the Treasure Coast where convergence along
the stationary front. This should serve as an anchor point for=20
storms. Other prospects for heavy rain will likely be along the=20
immediate coast due to frictional convergence spurred by the=20
prevailing northeasterly surface flow coupled with a moderate=20
effective shear layer between 30-40kts in an environment=20
characterized by CAPE values in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range.

Areal neighborhood probabilities from the HREF and RRFS for >3"=20
remains very similar to values on Monday along a majority of the=20
eastern peninsula coast line. Suspect the RRFS was a bit too
excitable with its areal extent and neighborhood probabilities
although not entirely not of the realm of possibilities.
Precipitable water values will remain 1 to 2 standard deviations=20
above normal over the southern half of FL which would be sufficient
for those heavier cores to materialize when convection occurs.=20

Considering some overlap over the past few days, maintained the
Slight risk area introduced on Monday.=20

Bann


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 09 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...Plains...
The general synoptic pattern across the Central CONUS=20
remains consistent on a run-to-run basis. That means there is the=20
potential for locally heavy rainfall that produces isolate flash=20
flooding from Kansas to points northeastward into northern Illinois
from late Thursday into Thursday night and early Friday morning.=20

A weak shortwave ejecting out of the Central Rockies will
intersect a slow-moving cold front propagating out of the Upper=20
Midwest and Northern Plains creating a focused axis of ascent along
and just ahead of the front as it migrates through the Plains and=20
Central Midwest. Areal QPF average of 1-3 inches remains in the=20=20
forecast within vicinity of the front with much of the rain=20
occurring in a window between 10/00Z and 10/12z Friday as return
flow from the Gulf approaches the front. The magnitude of rainfall
and antecedent soil moisture anomalies pin this into the=20
traditional MRGL risk threshold.

...Florida...
A threat for showers and a few thunderstorms will linger across
portions of the southern Florida peninsula on Thursday before the
system moves away from the area completely. The 08/00Z NCEP=20
guidance still generated isolated maximum areal-average QPF in
excess of an inch over the highly urbanized corridor. Felt it was
too early to remove the excessive rainfall area at this point.

Bann


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

The southward moving cold front which is expected to serve as a
focus for some heavy rainfall on Thursday will continue to move
southward and once again be the focus for convection that may
produce excessive rainfall on Friday over portions of the Central
or Southern Plains. The airmass will be moderately unstable with
MUCAPE values peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range in area where
precipitable water values peak close to 1.5 inches on Friday
afternoon...which should foster decent rainfall rates and the
potential for excessive rainfall amounts.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8zyJRLJ3HIfojxzgQ3hEdk0-cWUOIb608thFPHDj3fyd= HFR9LAFNwwxqojcVxt0AL7e9YrrY8B987KBMc2Yrr84ZnZg$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8zyJRLJ3HIfojxzgQ3hEdk0-cWUOIb608thFPHDj3fyd= HFR9LAFNwwxqojcVxt0AL7e9YrrY8B987KBMc2YrUnJ-AiA$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8zyJRLJ3HIfojxzgQ3hEdk0-cWUOIb608thFPHDj3fyd= HFR9LAFNwwxqojcVxt0AL7e9YrrY8B987KBMc2YrkarHCIE$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 081559
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1159 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Wed Apr 08 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 09 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

A persistent pattern of northeasterly flow into the eastern FL
Peninsula north of a stationary front near the Florida Keys=20=20
will lead to another round of scattered convective activity from
this afternoon into the evening, which may produce localized flash
flooding. The best chance for this to occur will be across the=20
urban settings along the I-95 corridor stretching from southern Brevard
County, along the Treasure Coast, and southward to the Fort
Lauderdale and Miami metros.

The ensemble bias corrected mean is showing QPF magnitudes of 2-4
inches from Melbourne to Miami. Meanwhile, the high resolution
ensemble neighborhood probabilities are showing high chances
(60-90%) of rainfall exceeding 3 inches between the cities=20
mentioned above. A medium chance (40-70%) for exceeding 5 inches=20
is modeled farther south from the Treasure Coast to Fort=20
Lauderdale/Miami. Lastly, on the higher end of rainfall outcomes,=20
there is around a 20-40 chance of nearing 8 inches of rainfall by=20
Friday morning centered around Broward County to northern Miami.=20
Bottom line, moisture convergence along the central and=20
southeastern Florida coastline, combined with the potential for=20
training storm motions, may lead to chances for flash flooding.=20
This is especially true if the isolated higher end rainfall=20
amounts are realized over sensitive urban areas. As a result, a
Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall is in effect from southern
Brevard County to the Miami metro.=20


Wilder


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 09 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...Plains...
The general synoptic pattern across the Central CONUS
remains consistent on a run-to-run basis. That means there is the
potential for locally heavy rainfall that produces isolate flash
flooding from Kansas to points northeastward into northern Illinois
from late Thursday into Thursday night and early Friday morning.

A weak shortwave ejecting out of the Central Rockies will
intersect a slow-moving cold front propagating out of the Upper
Midwest and Northern Plains creating a focused axis of ascent along
and just ahead of the front as it migrates through the Plains and
Central Midwest. Areal QPF average of 1-3 inches remains in the
forecast within vicinity of the front with much of the rain
occurring in a window between 10/00Z and 10/12z Friday as return
flow from the Gulf approaches the front. The magnitude of rainfall
and antecedent soil moisture anomalies pin this into the
traditional MRGL risk threshold.

...Florida...
A threat for showers and a few thunderstorms will linger across
portions of the southern Florida peninsula on Thursday before the
system moves away from the area completely. The 08/00Z NCEP
guidance still generated isolated maximum areal-average QPF in
excess of an inch over the highly urbanized corridor. Felt it was
too early to remove the excessive rainfall area at this point.

Bann


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

The southward moving cold front which is expected to serve as a
focus for some heavy rainfall on Thursday will continue to move
southward and once again be the focus for convection that may
produce excessive rainfall on Friday over portions of the Central
or Southern Plains. The airmass will be moderately unstable with
MUCAPE values peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range in area where
precipitable water values peak close to 1.5 inches on Friday
afternoon...which should foster decent rainfall rates and the
potential for excessive rainfall amounts.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-pAo0O2vqRwSkR1OSsFukLxgvlZdUW1LFj-Ie5f7leT4= _zvGKBWWGt6UxQ7Uo4WTU1S_XWD38SYFakp_SKXd7OfmhkQ$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-pAo0O2vqRwSkR1OSsFukLxgvlZdUW1LFj-Ie5f7leT4= _zvGKBWWGt6UxQ7Uo4WTU1S_XWD38SYFakp_SKXdspdF79Q$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-pAo0O2vqRwSkR1OSsFukLxgvlZdUW1LFj-Ie5f7leT4= _zvGKBWWGt6UxQ7Uo4WTU1S_XWD38SYFakp_SKXdwhxYn94$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 082008
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Wed Apr 08 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 09 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

A persistent pattern of northeasterly flow into the eastern FL
Peninsula north of a stationary front near the Florida Keys
will lead to another round of scattered convective activity from
this afternoon into the evening, which may produce localized flash
flooding. The best chance for this to occur will be across the
urban settings along the I-95 corridor stretching from southern Brevard
County, along the Treasure Coast, and southward to the Fort
Lauderdale and Miami metros.

The ensemble bias corrected mean is showing QPF magnitudes of 2-4
inches from Melbourne to Miami. Meanwhile, the high resolution
ensemble neighborhood probabilities are showing high chances
(60-90%) of rainfall exceeding 3 inches between the cities
mentioned above. A medium chance (40-70%) for exceeding 5 inches
is modeled farther south from the Treasure Coast to Fort
Lauderdale/Miami. Lastly, on the higher end of rainfall outcomes,
there is around a 20-40 chance of nearing 8 inches of rainfall by
Friday morning centered around Broward County to northern Miami.
Bottom line, moisture convergence along the central and
southeastern Florida coastline, combined with the potential for
training storm motions, may lead to chances for flash flooding.
This is especially true if the isolated higher end rainfall
amounts are realized over sensitive urban areas. As a result, a
Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall is in effect from southern
Brevard County to the Miami metro.


Wilder


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 09 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THE EAST COAST OF=20
FLORIDA...

...Central Plains to Mid-Mississippi Valley...=20

20Z Update: The general synoptic pattern remains consistent on a=20
run-to-run basis. That means there is the potential for locally=20
heavy rainfall that produces isolated flash flooding from Kansas to
points northeastward into northern Illinois from late Thursday=20
into Thursday night and early Friday morning.

A weak shortwave ejecting out of the Central Rockies will
intersect a stalling frontal boundary across the Upper Midwest and
Northern Plains. This will focus an axis of ascent along and just=20
ahead of the front. Areal QPF average of 1-3 inches remains in the
forecast within vicinity of the front with much of the rain=20
occurring in a window between 10/00Z and 10/12z Friday as return=20
flow from the Gulf approaches the front. The magnitude of rainfall=20
and antecedent soil moisture anomalies pin this into the=20
traditional MRGL risk threshold. One adjustment in the afternoon
package was a minor expansion of the MRGL risk north and eastward=20
to include the city of Des Moines. This is mostly a result of=20
uncertainty in QPF location as a result of differences in where the
stationary front aligns.=20


...Florida...

20Z Update: A threat for showers and thunderstorms will linger=20
from the Space Coast southwards to the Miami metro. The risk for=20
flash flooding should lessen on Thursday, but the overall pattern=20
of relatively high PWATS, moisture advection and convergence along=20
the coastal corridor should support an additional 1-3 inches of=20
rainfall. Moreover, saturated soils along the Space Coast to South=20
Florida may increase susceptibility to flash flooding. Therefore, a
Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall is in effect from the=20
northern Space Coast to Miami.=20

Wilder/Bann


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

20z Update: The general forecast remains on track as moisture
convergence along a slow moving cold front will help initiate
another round of heavy rainfall for portions of the Central Plains
to the Mid-Mississippi Valley.=20

The southward moving cold front which is expected to serve as a=20
focus for some heavy rainfall on Thursday will continue to move=20
southward and once again be the focus for convection that may=20
produce excessive rainfall on Friday over portions of the Central=20
or Southern Plains. The airmass will be moderately unstable with=20
MUCAPE values peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range in area where=20 precipitable water values peak close to 1.5 inches on Friday=20 afternoon...which should foster decent rainfall rates and the=20
potential for excessive rainfall amounts.

Bann/Wilder


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4beBo05Ak0yXfzMG8-XDnNiDZolxxu_SOBe5lBYCfTrX= 1tdV-EIdGitk9L3XG_sLiFN72m44lFndu_Uy8GhGsiTuJfU$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4beBo05Ak0yXfzMG8-XDnNiDZolxxu_SOBe5lBYCfTrX= 1tdV-EIdGitk9L3XG_sLiFN72m44lFndu_Uy8GhGJFzhoXE$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4beBo05Ak0yXfzMG8-XDnNiDZolxxu_SOBe5lBYCfTrX= 1tdV-EIdGitk9L3XG_sLiFN72m44lFndu_Uy8GhGa08fxzk$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 090021
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
821 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Thu Apr 09 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 09 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE FLORIDA
SPACE COAST THROUGH MIAMI...

Maintained a Marginal Risk from Daytona through Miami for continued
onshore flow maintaining 1.5" PW with some coastal instability=20
through the overnight. An MCV continues to work its way south off=20
Miami this evening which may lead to some organized heavy rain. An=20
isolated flash flood risk persists overnight.

Jackson


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 09 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA...

...Central Plains to Mid-Mississippi Valley...

20Z Update: The general synoptic pattern remains consistent on a
run-to-run basis. That means there is the potential for locally
heavy rainfall that produces isolated flash flooding from Kansas to
points northeastward into northern Illinois from late Thursday
into Thursday night and early Friday morning.

A weak shortwave ejecting out of the Central Rockies will
intersect a stalling frontal boundary across the Upper Midwest and
Northern Plains. This will focus an axis of ascent along and just
ahead of the front. Areal QPF average of 1-3 inches remains in the
forecast within vicinity of the front with much of the rain
occurring in a window between 10/00Z and 10/12z Friday as return
flow from the Gulf approaches the front. The magnitude of rainfall
and antecedent soil moisture anomalies pin this into the
traditional MRGL risk threshold. One adjustment in the afternoon
package was a minor expansion of the MRGL risk north and eastward
to include the city of Des Moines. This is mostly a result of
uncertainty in QPF location as a result of differences in where the
stationary front aligns.


...Florida...

20Z Update: A threat for showers and thunderstorms will linger
from the Space Coast southwards to the Miami metro. The risk for
flash flooding should lessen on Thursday, but the overall pattern
of relatively high PWATS, moisture advection and convergence along
the coastal corridor should support an additional 1-3 inches of
rainfall. Moreover, saturated soils along the Space Coast to South
Florida may increase susceptibility to flash flooding. Therefore, a
Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall is in effect from the
northern Space Coast to Miami.

Wilder/Bann


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

20z Update: The general forecast remains on track as moisture
convergence along a slow moving cold front will help initiate
another round of heavy rainfall for portions of the Central Plains
to the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

The southward moving cold front which is expected to serve as a
focus for some heavy rainfall on Thursday will continue to move
southward and once again be the focus for convection that may
produce excessive rainfall on Friday over portions of the Central
or Southern Plains. The airmass will be moderately unstable with
MUCAPE values peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range in area where
precipitable water values peak close to 1.5 inches on Friday
afternoon...which should foster decent rainfall rates and the
potential for excessive rainfall amounts.

Bann/Wilder


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5GpoIb88ubcCwMUVwFOkhQHyNFgyXIStfem_QJapDcSy= ehfNCvZug3EiaOHv52EXSCI5znR0XhxFCtnCy_UY402SQB4$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5GpoIb88ubcCwMUVwFOkhQHyNFgyXIStfem_QJapDcSy= ehfNCvZug3EiaOHv52EXSCI5znR0XhxFCtnCy_UY0SaTVHM$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5GpoIb88ubcCwMUVwFOkhQHyNFgyXIStfem_QJapDcSy= ehfNCvZug3EiaOHv52EXSCI5znR0XhxFCtnCy_UYg59sirY$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 090823
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
423 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 09 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, LOWER MISSOURI AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...


...Central Plains to Mid-Mississippi Valley...
The surface frontal boundary stretching from the Central Plains
into the Mid Mississippi Valley is expected to be nearly stationary
day 1, remaining oriented in a general west to east direction.
In the wake of the strong height falls moving northeast from the=20
Upper Lakes into southeast Canada, additional shortwave energy=20
expected to dive southeast from the Northern Plains into the Upper=20
MS Valley. These height falls will help strengthen the low level=20
south southwesterly flow into this boundary, push PW values to 1=20
to 2+ standard deviations above the mean and enhance uvvs in the=20
above average PW axis in the vicinity of the stationary front. This
will support increasing convection late Thursday afternoon into=20
the early hours of Friday in the vicinity of this boundary with
locally heavy rainfall totals and isolated runoff issues. Only=20
some minor changes made to the previous marginal risk area,=20
trimming it to the northwest across northern IL, and extending it=20
slightly farther south into northeast KS to match the latest model=20
qpf consensus. The marginal risk fits well with where the latest=20
HREF neighborhood probabilities are highest for 1 and 2"+ totals=20
during the upcoming day 1 period.


...East coast of Florida...
The strong low level east northeasterly flow will continue for at
least the beginning of the day 1 period along the east coast of
Florida. PW values will remain above average during the day on
Thursday, before beginning to decrease as the low level onshore
flow weakens after 0000 UTC Friday. There will continue to be the=20
threat of locally heavy rains from slow moving to nearly stationary
rain bands in this strong moist onshore flow region. Confidence is
not great with placement, leading to little in the way of changes=20
with to the previous broad marginal risk area along the east=20
central to southeast Florida coastal region, with the greatest risk
of runoff issues in more urbanized regions.


Oravec


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS...


The west to east front stretching from the Central Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley day 1 will begin to push southward late day
1 into early day 2. This front will then again becoming stationary
during the day on Friday, oriented west to east from the Central
Plains, east into the Lower MO Valley and Mid-Mississippi Valley.=20
Similar to the day 1 period, PW values should increase in the=20
vicinity of this front in response to strengthening southerly low=20
level inflow. Shortwave energy pushing northeastward into this high
PW axis in the vicinity of this front will support areas of slow=20
moving convection along this front, locally heavy rains and
isolated runoff issues. The previous marginal risk area was pushed
southward by approximately 50-75 miles to fit the latest model qpf
consensus. There still is some latitudinal spread with the max qpf
axis, with the more southern solution favored in the latest WPC=20
qpf.

Oravec

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

An axis of much above average PW values expected to increase in
size day 3 across the Southern to Central Plains, into the Upper=20
MS Valley in a region of strengthening south southwesterly to=20
southwesterly low to mid level flow. There is the likelihood of=20
numerous shortwaves moving northeastward in this mid level=20
southwesterly flow across the mid section of the nation, supporting
increasing precip chances/coverage across this region. There still
is a large spread in the models with respect to placement of max=20
qpf, leading to low confidence at the moment for the day 3 time=20
period. Given the model spread and dry antecedent soil moisture and
high FFG values, the risk area was maintained at marginal, with=20
the potential for upgrade to slight in subsequent model cycles if=20
better agreement with max qpf axes occurs.=20


Oravec

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9a1L5Qj-QzA-B6vaUoSqQcUIqfubvB8nHXLuwWYN-hJC= iqBJqYMQReKw5eJ5qcLQ9YYV1ah84-5bhFuk3qdfCkbjTLw$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9a1L5Qj-QzA-B6vaUoSqQcUIqfubvB8nHXLuwWYN-hJC= iqBJqYMQReKw5eJ5qcLQ9YYV1ah84-5bhFuk3qdfA9aa4xc$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9a1L5Qj-QzA-B6vaUoSqQcUIqfubvB8nHXLuwWYN-hJC= iqBJqYMQReKw5eJ5qcLQ9YYV1ah84-5bhFuk3qdfz2lcQt0$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 091559
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1159 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Thu Apr 09 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, LOWER MISSOURI AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...

...Central Plains to Mid-Mississippi Valley...

16z Update: The forecast remains on track for a Marginal Risk for=20
Excessive Rainfall as modest moisture return from the south and an=20
increase in instability through the day will interact with a=20
stationary front aligned from northern Kansas eastward to Illinois.
A dual QPF maxima of 1-2 inches is forecast along and to the north
of a front across the I80 corridor from Iowa to northern Illinois.
Northeast Kansas into Missouri will be another focal point for=20
possible heavier rainfall rates near and south of the front and QPF
totals nearing 1-3 inches.=20

..Previous Discussion..

The surface frontal boundary stretching from the Central Plains=20
into the Mid Mississippi Valley is expected to be nearly stationary
day 1, remaining oriented in a general west to east direction. In=20
the wake of the strong height falls moving northeast from the Upper
Lakes into southeast Canada, additional shortwave energy expected=20
to dive southeast from the Northern Plains into the Upper MS=20
Valley. These height falls will help strengthen the low level south southwesterly flow into this boundary, push PW values to 1 to 2+=20
standard deviations above the mean and enhance uvvs in the above=20
average PW axis in the vicinity of the stationary front. This will=20
support increasing convection late Thursday afternoon into the=20
early hours of Friday in the vicinity of this boundary with locally
heavy rainfall totals and isolated runoff issues. Only some minor=20
changes made to the previous marginal risk area, trimming it to the
northwest across northern IL, and extending it slightly farther=20
south into northeast KS to match the latest model qpf consensus.=20
The marginal risk fits well with where the latest HREF neighborhood probabilities are highest for 1 and 2"+ totals during the upcoming
day 1 period.

...East coast of Florida...

16z Update: Thunderstorms this morning were moving across the=20
Space Coast, the Treasure Coast, and the Miami metro. Radar=20
analysis showed rainfall rates of an inch to two inches per hour=20
over saturated soils from previous days. Showers and storms will=20
continue amid the strong northeasterly flow along the east coast of
Florid and the Marginal Risk continues this afternoon.=20

..Previous Discussion..

The strong low level east northeasterly flow will continue for at=20
least the beginning of the day 1 period along the east coast of=20
Florida. PW values will remain above average during the day on=20
Thursday, before beginning to decrease as the low level onshore=20
flow weakens after 0000 UTC Friday. There will continue to be the=20
threat of locally heavy rains from slow moving to nearly stationary
rain bands in this strong moist onshore flow region. Confidence is
not great with placement, leading to little in the way of changes=20
with to the previous broad marginal risk area along the east=20
central to southeast Florida coastal region, with the greatest risk
of runoff issues in more urbanized regions.

...South-Central Texas...

A sub-Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall is possible from the=20
Hill Country westward to the Rio Grande. The QPF forecast calls for
a general 1.0-2.0 inches across the region today as enough=20
moisture and instability will be present for scattered=20
thunderstorms. A disturbance moving across the Mexican Plateau=20
could enhance locally heavier rainfall totals across the Rio=20
Grande, with some uncertainty if the storms can maintain across the
U.S./Mexico border late this afternoon into the evening. Dry=20
antecedent conditions and low signals from the HREF neighborhood=20 probabilities exceeding 2 inches precludes a Marginal Risk for=20
Excessive Rainfall as of this forecast package.=20

Oravec/Wilder


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS...


The west to east front stretching from the Central Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley day 1 will begin to push southward late day
1 into early day 2. This front will then again becoming stationary
during the day on Friday, oriented west to east from the Central
Plains, east into the Lower MO Valley and Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Similar to the day 1 period, PW values should increase in the
vicinity of this front in response to strengthening southerly low
level inflow. Shortwave energy pushing northeastward into this high
PW axis in the vicinity of this front will support areas of slow
moving convection along this front, locally heavy rains and
isolated runoff issues. The previous marginal risk area was pushed
southward by approximately 50-75 miles to fit the latest model qpf
consensus. There still is some latitudinal spread with the max qpf
axis, with the more southern solution favored in the latest WPC
qpf.

Oravec

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

An axis of much above average PW values expected to increase in
size day 3 across the Southern to Central Plains, into the Upper
MS Valley in a region of strengthening south southwesterly to
southwesterly low to mid level flow. There is the likelihood of
numerous shortwaves moving northeastward in this mid level
southwesterly flow across the mid section of the nation, supporting
increasing precip chances/coverage across this region. There still
is a large spread in the models with respect to placement of max
qpf, leading to low confidence at the moment for the day 3 time
period. Given the model spread and dry antecedent soil moisture and
high FFG values, the risk area was maintained at marginal, with
the potential for upgrade to slight in subsequent model cycles if
better agreement with max qpf axes occurs.


Oravec

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Q0w7pL-tERFU-lXTI_SRSn1XFIHyQ9FW6le9W8V9aiN= WqprvO6PmZOycsESQS45nc5I_8nM7XUQuuemPlvAIVC7-pw$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Q0w7pL-tERFU-lXTI_SRSn1XFIHyQ9FW6le9W8V9aiN= WqprvO6PmZOycsESQS45nc5I_8nM7XUQuuemPlvAPdNaaog$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Q0w7pL-tERFU-lXTI_SRSn1XFIHyQ9FW6le9W8V9aiN= WqprvO6PmZOycsESQS45nc5I_8nM7XUQuuemPlvAA5iKcgU$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 092025
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
425 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Thu Apr 09 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, LOWER MISSOURI AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...

...Central Plains to Mid-Mississippi Valley...

16z Update: The forecast remains on track for a Marginal Risk for
Excessive Rainfall as modest moisture return from the south and an
increase in instability through the day will interact with a
stationary front aligned from northern Kansas eastward to Illinois.
A dual QPF maxima of 1-2 inches is forecast along and to the north
of a front across the I80 corridor from Iowa to northern Illinois.
Northeast Kansas into Missouri will be another focal point for
possible heavier rainfall rates near and south of the front and QPF
totals nearing 1-3 inches.

..Previous Discussion..

The surface frontal boundary stretching from the Central Plains
into the Mid Mississippi Valley is expected to be nearly stationary
day 1, remaining oriented in a general west to east direction. In
the wake of the strong height falls moving northeast from the Upper
Lakes into southeast Canada, additional shortwave energy expected
to dive southeast from the Northern Plains into the Upper MS
Valley. These height falls will help strengthen the low level south southwesterly flow into this boundary, push PW values to 1 to 2+
standard deviations above the mean and enhance uvvs in the above
average PW axis in the vicinity of the stationary front. This will
support increasing convection late Thursday afternoon into the
early hours of Friday in the vicinity of this boundary with locally
heavy rainfall totals and isolated runoff issues. Only some minor
changes made to the previous marginal risk area, trimming it to the
northwest across northern IL, and extending it slightly farther
south into northeast KS to match the latest model qpf consensus.
The marginal risk fits well with where the latest HREF neighborhood probabilities are highest for 1 and 2"+ totals during the upcoming
day 1 period.

...East coast of Florida...

16z Update: Thunderstorms this morning were moving across the
Space Coast, the Treasure Coast, and the Miami metro. Radar
analysis showed rainfall rates of an inch to two inches per hour
over saturated soils from previous days. Showers and storms will
continue amid the strong northeasterly flow along the east coast of
Florid and the Marginal Risk continues this afternoon.

..Previous Discussion..

The strong low level east northeasterly flow will continue for at
least the beginning of the day 1 period along the east coast of
Florida. PW values will remain above average during the day on
Thursday, before beginning to decrease as the low level onshore
flow weakens after 0000 UTC Friday. There will continue to be the
threat of locally heavy rains from slow moving to nearly stationary
rain bands in this strong moist onshore flow region. Confidence is
not great with placement, leading to little in the way of changes
with to the previous broad marginal risk area along the east
central to southeast Florida coastal region, with the greatest risk
of runoff issues in more urbanized regions.

...South-Central Texas...

A sub-Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall is possible from the
Hill Country westward to the Rio Grande. The QPF forecast calls for
a general 1.0-2.0 inches across the region today as enough
moisture and instability will be present for scattered
thunderstorms. A disturbance moving across the Mexican Plateau
could enhance locally heavier rainfall totals across the Rio
Grande, with some uncertainty if the storms can maintain across the
U.S./Mexico border late this afternoon into the evening. Dry
antecedent conditions and low signals from the HREF neighborhood
probabilities exceeding 2 inches precludes a Marginal Risk for
Excessive Rainfall as of this forecast package.

Oravec/Wilder


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS...

20z Update: The Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall had a minor=20
shift south into northern Oklahoma based on latest CAM consensus.

The Marginal Risk was extended farther south into northern=20
Oklahoma, including the Tulsa metro, as models show a southward=20
trend of the maximum QPF where the front aligns. The west to east=20
front stretching from the Central Plains into the Mid-Mississippi=20
Valley today will begin to push southward early tomorrow. This=20
front will then meander across the Central Plains, east into the=20
Lower MO Valley and Mid- Mississippi Valley. PWAT values should=20
increase in the vicinity of this front in response to strengthening
southerly low level inflow. Shortwave energy pushing northeastward
into this high PW axis in the vicinity of this front will support=20
areas of slow moving convection along this front,locally heavy=20
rains and isolated runoff issues. HREF neighborhood probabilities=20
show 40-70% for 2 inches and 20-40 % for 3 inches of rainfall=20
across these areas.=20

Wilder/Oravec

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

20z Update: Upgraded to a Slight Risk across West Texas into the=20
Red River Valley.

An axis of above average PWATS is expected to move across the=20
Southern and Central Plains on Saturday. Upper dynamics will=20
support ascent ahead of a longwave trough entering the West Coast,=20
as well as a shortwave trough traversing the High Plains. As=20
ridging builds in across the east, this will also promote strong=20
southerly flow and a low level jet over the Southern Plains and=20
Texas to advect moisture and instability in the area. At the=20
surface, a dry line across West Texas will help serve as an=20
initiating mechanism for convection. The QPF footprint in the=20
afternoon cycle has a signal for 2-4 inches possible from the=20
Concho Valley in West Texas to the Red River Valley in southern=20
Oklahoma. Rainfall rates could also be as high as an inch or two=20
per hour with organized convection likely as noted with SPC's=20
Slight Risk across the region. A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall
was introduced from West Texas to the Red River Valley on Saturday=20
for the potential of scattered flash flooding.

Wilder/Oravec


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!71CSCof9OfvlzNLKjuNMwJfSgA_9BgKiRLe5ZdXeqDFM= lpUkwPaxxl22zMb9B7m3ZDbR5dR7BcheScJIH-RWtZuvf6w$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!71CSCof9OfvlzNLKjuNMwJfSgA_9BgKiRLe5ZdXeqDFM= lpUkwPaxxl22zMb9B7m3ZDbR5dR7BcheScJIH-RW_BLpfhA$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!71CSCof9OfvlzNLKjuNMwJfSgA_9BgKiRLe5ZdXeqDFM= lpUkwPaxxl22zMb9B7m3ZDbR5dR7BcheScJIH-RWSDL1ev8$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 100038
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
838 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Fri Apr 10 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST...

01Z Update: A well-defined stationary front remains near the=20
Neb/KS border east across northern MO and north-central IL which=20
will sag south overnight. Strong southerly flow from TX/west Gulf
will continue to provide moisture (PW up around 1.2") and=20
convergence along the front. This, along with sufficient
instability(MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) will promote further=20
development as activity shifts east overnight. The previous=20
forecast is on track with the ongoing hail-dominant northern KS=20
expected to maintain itself as it shifts east in 40kt bulk shear.=20
The Marginal Risk was expanded east a bit in north-central MO given
the trajectory of the ongoing activity. The 3hr FFG around 2"=20
could be locally exceeded. Maintained the Marginal farther north in
the cold sector over IA to along the WI/IL border given=20
overrunning/elevated instability around 500 J/kg. The 3hr FFG here=20
around 1.5" may be exceeded.


Jackson


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS...

20z Update: The Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall had a minor
shift south into northern Oklahoma based on latest CAM consensus.

The Marginal Risk was extended farther south into northern
Oklahoma, including the Tulsa metro, as models show a southward
trend of the maximum QPF where the front aligns. The west to east
front stretching from the Central Plains into the Mid-Mississippi
Valley today will begin to push southward early tomorrow. This
front will then meander across the Central Plains, east into the
Lower MO Valley and Mid- Mississippi Valley. PWAT values should
increase in the vicinity of this front in response to strengthening
southerly low level inflow. Shortwave energy pushing northeastward
into this high PW axis in the vicinity of this front will support
areas of slow moving convection along this front,locally heavy
rains and isolated runoff issues. HREF neighborhood probabilities
show 40-70% for 2 inches and 20-40 % for 3 inches of rainfall
across these areas.

Wilder/Oravec

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

20z Update: Upgraded to a Slight Risk across West Texas into the
Red River Valley.

An axis of above average PWATS is expected to move across the
Southern and Central Plains on Saturday. Upper dynamics will
support ascent ahead of a longwave trough entering the West Coast,
as well as a shortwave trough traversing the High Plains. As
ridging builds in across the east, this will also promote strong
southerly flow and a low level jet over the Southern Plains and
Texas to advect moisture and instability in the area. At the
surface, a dry line across West Texas will help serve as an
initiating mechanism for convection. The QPF footprint in the
afternoon cycle has a signal for 2-4 inches possible from the
Concho Valley in West Texas to the Red River Valley in southern
Oklahoma. Rainfall rates could also be as high as an inch or two
per hour with organized convection likely as noted with SPC's
Slight Risk across the region. A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall
was introduced from West Texas to the Red River Valley on Saturday
for the potential of scattered flash flooding.

Wilder/Oravec


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5dZRsCm4yO40Tvz_BrwlwEdZuKHxbK8_WVEB-zZ2GFj5= tl8cqrEUY8B-_upJQl3n6TEN0HdkPeNPc0NRWxdnsfDm5FU$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5dZRsCm4yO40Tvz_BrwlwEdZuKHxbK8_WVEB-zZ2GFj5= tl8cqrEUY8B-_upJQl3n6TEN0HdkPeNPc0NRWxdnHc8koP0$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5dZRsCm4yO40Tvz_BrwlwEdZuKHxbK8_WVEB-zZ2GFj5= tl8cqrEUY8B-_upJQl3n6TEN0HdkPeNPc0NRWxdnXakBgGI$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 100808
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS=20
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

A west-east orientated frontal boundary will be dropping southward
through the period while PW values of +2-2.5 standard deviations
advect northward across the region as the low level flow
strengthens. Meanwhile, shortwave energy pushing northeastward=20
into this high PW axis in the vicinity of this front will support=20
areas of slow moving convection along this front, locally heavy=20
rains and isolated runoff issues. HREF neighborhood probabilities=20
show 40-70% for 2 inches and 20-40 % for 3 inches of rainfall=20
across these areas. While areal averages are generally expected to
be less than 1.5 inches, there are signals for isolated maximums of
3-4+ inches per the latest CAM guidance. The Marginal Risk area for
excessive rainfall was maintained from the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles to southwest Missouri.

Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

Gulf moisture will continue to advect northward with PW anomalies
surging to +3 deviations above seasonal normal across the Plains.=20
Upper dynamics will support ascent ahead of a longwave trough=20
entering the West Coast, as well as a shortwave trough traversing=20
the High Plains. As ridging builds in across the east, this will=20
also promote strong southerly flow and a low level jet over the=20
Southern Plains and Texas to advect moisture and instability in the
area. At the surface, a dry line across West Texas will help serve
as an initiating mechanism for convection. The latest guidance
continues to depict a signal for 2-4 inches possible from the=20
Concho Valley in West Texas to the Red River Valley in southern=20
Oklahoma. Rainfall rates could also be as high as an inch or two=20
per hour with organized convection likely as noted with SPC's=20
Slight Risk across the region. WPC maintained the Slight Risk for
excessive rainfall from the West Texas/Hill Country northeast to
the Red River Valley. A Marginal extends from the Rio Grande to
southeast Kansas.

Campbell/Wilder

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms will persist across the Southern/Centrals Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley given
favorable wind shear and instability in place. Moisture transported northwa=
rd
from the western Gulf to the Midwest between the eastern U.S.=20
upper ridge and the trough over the Rockies will maintain enhanced
rainfall. And with limited eastward progression of the QPF=20
footprint expected during this period, it will keep an elevated=20
threat for local flash flooding concerns. A Marginal Risk remains
in effect from central-eastern Texas to southeast Kansas/southwest
Missouri.

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-dQiKTwJ_bRLr100hIHYVBTM8ix_qCSimuM6UKUQr6ii= 4vX052UOZNz0XKiP2TkVRguaxuDC33Hl1YP7q1DNN1blA6E$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-dQiKTwJ_bRLr100hIHYVBTM8ix_qCSimuM6UKUQr6ii= 4vX052UOZNz0XKiP2TkVRguaxuDC33Hl1YP7q1DNyqgUQHw$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-dQiKTwJ_bRLr100hIHYVBTM8ix_qCSimuM6UKUQr6ii= 4vX052UOZNz0XKiP2TkVRguaxuDC33Hl1YP7q1DNdTLp0MQ$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 101524
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1124 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL, SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

16Z Update:The Marginal Risk ERO was extended northward to cover=20
the Kansas City metro and northeastern Kansas in coordination with
KEAX and KTOP. Rainfall reports and radar estimates show 2-4=20
inches fell last night and flash flood guidance has lowered to half
an inch to an inch, including the KC metro. A warm front lifting
into the region in the over-night period will likely foster a
shield of rain with embedded convection that may drop an inch or
two of rain in a few hours. Background hydrological conditions=20
warrant a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall for the possibility=20
of exceeding flash flood guidance.=20

Over Missouri, the Marginal risk was extended farther eastward=20
into the Springfield CWA based on current radar trends and two inch
HREF neighborhood probabilities (40-70%).=20

Previous Discussion:

A west-east orientated frontal boundary will be=20
dropping southward through the period while PW values of +2-2.5=20
standard deviations advect northward across the region as the low=20
level flow strengthens. Meanwhile, shortwave energy pushing=20
northeastward into this high PW axis in the vicinity of this front=20
will support areas of slow moving convection along this front,=20
locally heavy rains and isolated runoff issues. HREF neighborhood=20 probabilities show 40-70% for 2 inches and 20-40 % for 3 inches of=20
rainfall across these areas. While areal averages are generally=20
expected to be less than 1.5 inches, there are signals for isolated
maximums of 3-4+ inches per the latest CAM guidance. The Marginal=20
Risk area for excessive rainfall was maintained from the=20
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles to southwest Missouri.

Wilder/Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

Gulf moisture will continue to advect northward with PW anomalies
surging to +3 deviations above seasonal normal across the Plains.
Upper dynamics will support ascent ahead of a longwave trough
entering the West Coast, as well as a shortwave trough traversing
the High Plains. As ridging builds in across the east, this will
also promote strong southerly flow and a low level jet over the
Southern Plains and Texas to advect moisture and instability in the
area. At the surface, a dry line across West Texas will help serve
as an initiating mechanism for convection. The latest guidance
continues to depict a signal for 2-4 inches possible from the
Concho Valley in West Texas to the Red River Valley in southern
Oklahoma. Rainfall rates could also be as high as an inch or two
per hour with organized convection likely as noted with SPC's
Slight Risk across the region. WPC maintained the Slight Risk for
excessive rainfall from the West Texas/Hill Country northeast to
the Red River Valley. A Marginal extends from the Rio Grande to
southeast Kansas.

Campbell/Wilder

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms will persist across the Southern/Centrals Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley given
favorable wind shear and instability in place. Moisture transported northwa=
rd
from the western Gulf to the Midwest between the eastern U.S.
upper ridge and the trough over the Rockies will maintain enhanced
rainfall. And with limited eastward progression of the QPF
footprint expected during this period, it will keep an elevated
threat for local flash flooding concerns. A Marginal Risk remains
in effect from central-eastern Texas to southeast Kansas/southwest
Missouri.

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-mcAdVJIW8RQPpszNo_cFWRTACki_D_Qoi5L6bafaUJg= bcgTbbHFFVXp4g6vwgwh0nWOzkrLqp0ncw-xvGm1JE2QUhs$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-mcAdVJIW8RQPpszNo_cFWRTACki_D_Qoi5L6bafaUJg= bcgTbbHFFVXp4g6vwgwh0nWOzkrLqp0ncw-xvGm1ee80wlE$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-mcAdVJIW8RQPpszNo_cFWRTACki_D_Qoi5L6bafaUJg= bcgTbbHFFVXp4g6vwgwh0nWOzkrLqp0ncw-xvGm1MeP1F94$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 102027
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Apr 10 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL, SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

16Z Update:The Marginal Risk ERO was extended northward to cover
the Kansas City metro and northeastern Kansas in coordination with
KEAX and KTOP. Rainfall reports and radar estimates show 2-4
inches fell last night and flash flood guidance has lowered to half
an inch to an inch, including the KC metro. A warm front lifting
into the region in the over-night period will likely foster a
shield of rain with embedded convection that may drop an inch or
two of rain in a few hours. Background hydrological conditions
warrant a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall for the possibility
of exceeding flash flood guidance.

Over Missouri, the Marginal risk was extended farther eastward
into the Springfield CWA based on current radar trends and two inch
HREF neighborhood probabilities (40-70%).

Previous Discussion:

A west-east orientated frontal boundary will be
dropping southward through the period while PW values of +2-2.5
standard deviations advect northward across the region as the low
level flow strengthens. Meanwhile, shortwave energy pushing
northeastward into this high PW axis in the vicinity of this front
will support areas of slow moving convection along this front,
locally heavy rains and isolated runoff issues. HREF neighborhood
probabilities show 40-70% for 2 inches and 20-40 % for 3 inches of
rainfall across these areas. While areal averages are generally
expected to be less than 1.5 inches, there are signals for isolated
maximums of 3-4+ inches per the latest CAM guidance. The Marginal
Risk area for excessive rainfall was maintained from the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles to southwest Missouri.

Wilder/Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...Southern Plains...

Gulf moisture will continue to advect northward with PW anomalies=20
above seasonal normals across the Southern Plains. Upper dynamics=20
will support ascent ahead of a longwave trough entering the West=20
Coast, as well as embedded short waves. As ridging builds in=20
across the east, this will also promote strong southerly flow and a
low level jet over the Southern Plains to continue to advect=20
moisture and instability into the area. At the surface, a dry line=20
across West Texas will help serve as an initiating mechanism for=20
convection in the afternoon. Thunderstorm activity will migrate=20
eastward through the Permian Basin and Western Rolling Plains,=20
eventually making headway into the adjacent Concho Valley and lower
Trans Pecos. As cells merge due to cold pool mergers and low-level
jet initiation, a large cluster of heavy rainfall will ensue=20
through the rest of Saturday night into Sunday morning.

The latest model guidance remains unchanged in depicting a signal=20
for 2-4 inches possible from the Concho Valley in West Texas to the
Red River Valley in southern Oklahoma. Neighborhood 24 hr QPF HREF probabilities show a strong signal for 50-80% for 2 inches for=20
this region and 40-70% for 3 inches. A Slight Risk for Excessive
Rainfall remains in effect across portions of the Southern Plains,
especially the areas referenced above.=20

...Upper Midwest and Great Lakes...

A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall was introduced across=20
Wisconsin and northern Michigan. Moisture will increase along a=20
warm front lifting northward through the region and will likely=20
see storms fire along the boundary during the afternoon. The=20
overall QPF footprint looks fairly modest in the 1" range, but=20
hydrological concerns from melting snow and high river levels may=20
allow for runoff concerns. Flash flooding prospects will be more=20
isolated in general, however, we will be monitoring the combination
of snow melt and heavy rainfall very carefully as high SWE levels=20
over the northern Great Lakes are likely to pose problems in the=20
next several days. A Flood Watch is already in effect across the=20
Michigan U.P. as a result of the impending pattern.=20

Wilder/Campbell

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL TEXAS...

...Central Texas...

Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms will persist across the=20 Southern/Central Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley given high
moisture presence, favorable wind shear and instability in place.=20
A meandering dry line across the region will provide a focus for=20 backbuilding cells. With limited eastward progression of the QPF=20
footprint expected during this period, there is a growing threat
for flash flood concerns across portions of Hill Country to the I-35
corridor south of Dallas. A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall is=20
now in effect for central Texas for the threat with a Marginal Risk
extending northeastward through Oklahoma and adjacent areas of Kansas/Missouri/Arkansas.=20

...Northern Michigan...

A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall remains across northern=20
Michigan on Sunday as moisture transport from the south will=20
interact with a frontal boundary across northern Michigan. This will=20
provide a lifting mechanism for additional showers and=20
thunderstorms. Model guidance averaged around 1-2 inches of rain in=20
the 24 hour period. Snow melt concerns and high river levels will=20
increase the possibility for run-off, similarly to Saturday. The
area of interest will shift a bit east to encompass more of the
eastern Michigan U.P., as well as the northern portion of the mitt
in Michigan.=20

Wilder/Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_jlbYDtKONWCDc1AW6aAsOuPecLyJANGZZCg0eN4tRBx= 87nQ1isrKcZiQZEOkeljgjOZyO6nAFkaQ0nT-mlCBrKJmZ8$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_jlbYDtKONWCDc1AW6aAsOuPecLyJANGZZCg0eN4tRBx= 87nQ1isrKcZiQZEOkeljgjOZyO6nAFkaQ0nT-mlCoiJihLY$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_jlbYDtKONWCDc1AW6aAsOuPecLyJANGZZCg0eN4tRBx= 87nQ1isrKcZiQZEOkeljgjOZyO6nAFkaQ0nT-mlCoRzlDnU$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 102234
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
634 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Day 1
Valid 2200Z Sat Apr 11 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

2200Z Update:

Have hoisted a Marginal Risk area across parts of SE TX, to include
portions of the Mid-Upper TX coast, encompassing the Houston-
Galveston metros. Deep-layer CAPEs of 1500-2000 J/Kg along with=20
PWAT values ~1.75" is providing a favorable thermodynamic
environment in the vicinity of a weak/unorganized mid-level vort
lobe. Meanwhile, southeasterly low-level inflow (~15kts) is double
the magnitude of the mean deep-layer west-southwesterly flow,=20
which will allow for some training of convection. Localized
rainfall rates of 2+ in/hr will be possible within the strongest
convective clusters, which could produce isolated urban flash
flooding. For further details, please refer to the the Mesoscale
Precipitation Discussion or MPD #88.

Elsewhere, we have also expanded the Plains Marginal Risk area a=20
bit farther west and south to include more of central OK, the OK-TX
Panhandles, and a portion of northeast NM. This was based partially
on current observational and mesoanalysis trends, with deep-layer=20
CAPEs late this afternoon now 2000-2500 J/Kg across much of this=20
area, including ~2,000 J/Kg across parts of the TX Panhandle into=20
northeast NM. Meanwhile, the 18Z HREF QPF exceedance probabilities (probabilities of 1-2 in/hr rates and at least 3"/3hr) also=20
somewhat dictated the areal-extent of the Marginal Risk area, along
with the latest CSU ERO UFVS-verified first guess field.=20

Hurley

Previous Discussion:

A west-east orientated frontal boundary will be dropping southward
through the period while PW values of +2-2.5 standard deviations=20
advect northward across the region as the low level flow=20
strengthens. Meanwhile, shortwave energy pushing northeastward into
this high PW axis in the vicinity of this front will support areas
of slow moving convection along this front, locally heavy rains=20
and isolated runoff issues. HREF neighborhood probabilities show=20
40-70% for 2 inches and 20-40 % for 3 inches of rainfall across=20
these areas. While areal averages are generally expected to be less
than 1.5 inches, there are signals for isolated maximums of 3-4+=20
inches per the latest CAM guidance. The Marginal Risk area for=20
excessive rainfall was maintained from the Oklahoma/Texas=20
Panhandles to southwest Missouri.

Wilder/Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...Southern Plains...

Gulf moisture will continue to advect northward with PW anomalies
above seasonal normals across the Southern Plains. Upper dynamics
will support ascent ahead of a longwave trough entering the West
Coast, as well as embedded short waves. As ridging builds in
across the east, this will also promote strong southerly flow and a
low level jet over the Southern Plains to continue to advect
moisture and instability into the area. At the surface, a dry line
across West Texas will help serve as an initiating mechanism for
convection in the afternoon. Thunderstorm activity will migrate
eastward through the Permian Basin and Western Rolling Plains,
eventually making headway into the adjacent Concho Valley and lower
Trans Pecos. As cells merge due to cold pool mergers and low-level
jet initiation, a large cluster of heavy rainfall will ensue
through the rest of Saturday night into Sunday morning.

The latest model guidance remains unchanged in depicting a signal
for 2-4 inches possible from the Concho Valley in West Texas to the
Red River Valley in southern Oklahoma. Neighborhood 24 hr QPF HREF probabilities show a strong signal for 50-80% for 2 inches for
this region and 40-70% for 3 inches. A Slight Risk for Excessive
Rainfall remains in effect across portions of the Southern Plains,
especially the areas referenced above.

...Upper Midwest and Great Lakes...

A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall was introduced across
Wisconsin and northern Michigan. Moisture will increase along a
warm front lifting northward through the region and will likely
see storms fire along the boundary during the afternoon. The
overall QPF footprint looks fairly modest in the 1" range, but
hydrological concerns from melting snow and high river levels may
allow for runoff concerns. Flash flooding prospects will be more
isolated in general, however, we will be monitoring the combination
of snow melt and heavy rainfall very carefully as high SWE levels
over the northern Great Lakes are likely to pose problems in the
next several days. A Flood Watch is already in effect across the
Michigan U.P. as a result of the impending pattern.

Wilder/Campbell

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL TEXAS...

...Central Texas...

Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms will persist across the Southern/Central Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley given high
moisture presence, favorable wind shear and instability in place.
A meandering dry line across the region will provide a focus for
backbuilding cells. With limited eastward progression of the QPF
footprint expected during this period, there is a growing threat
for flash flood concerns across portions of Hill Country to the I-35
corridor south of Dallas. A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall is
now in effect for central Texas for the threat with a Marginal Risk
extending northeastward through Oklahoma and adjacent areas of Kansas/Missouri/Arkansas.

...Northern Michigan...

A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall remains across northern
Michigan on Sunday as moisture transport from the south will
interact with a frontal boundary across northern Michigan. This will
provide a lifting mechanism for additional showers and
thunderstorms. Model guidance averaged around 1-2 inches of rain in
the 24 hour period. Snow melt concerns and high river levels will
increase the possibility for run-off, similarly to Saturday. The
area of interest will shift a bit east to encompass more of the
eastern Michigan U.P., as well as the northern portion of the mitt
in Michigan.

Wilder/Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5hvW1YoaCKAEpVwyutS3-BouOTylcVeRIZ28PMkceMPh= 3DMd654HtcZICECKqXWQqvrZNEXqeM93mA-bNbbVUBWJe6w$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5hvW1YoaCKAEpVwyutS3-BouOTylcVeRIZ28PMkceMPh= 3DMd654HtcZICECKqXWQqvrZNEXqeM93mA-bNbbVd5NPDOc$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5hvW1YoaCKAEpVwyutS3-BouOTylcVeRIZ28PMkceMPh= 3DMd654HtcZICECKqXWQqvrZNEXqeM93mA-bNbbVgHXDViA$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 110040
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
840 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Sat Apr 11 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

2200Z Update:

We expanded the Plains Marginal Risk area a bit farther west and=20
south to include more of central OK, the OK-TX Panhandles, and a=20
portion of northeast NM. This was based partially on current=20
observational and mesoanalysis trends, with deep-layer CAPEs late=20
this afternoon now 2000-2500 J/Kg across much of this area,=20
including ~2,000 J/Kg across parts of the TX Panhandle into=20
northeast NM. Meanwhile, the 18Z HREF QPF exceedance probabilities=20 (probabilities of 1-2 in/hr rates and at least 3"/3hr) also=20
somewhat dictated the areal-extent of the Marginal Risk area, along
with the latest CSU ERO UFVS-verified first guess field.

Hurley

Previous Discussion:

A west-east orientated frontal boundary will be dropping southward
through the period while PW values of +2-2.5 standard deviations
advect northward across the region as the low level flow
strengthens. Meanwhile, shortwave energy pushing northeastward into
this high PW axis in the vicinity of this front will support areas
of slow moving convection along this front, locally heavy rains
and isolated runoff issues. HREF neighborhood probabilities show
40-70% for 2 inches and 20-40 % for 3 inches of rainfall across
these areas. While areal averages are generally expected to be less
than 1.5 inches, there are signals for isolated maximums of 3-4+
inches per the latest CAM guidance. The Marginal Risk area for
excessive rainfall was maintained from the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles to southwest Missouri.

Wilder/Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...Southern Plains...

Gulf moisture will continue to advect northward with PW anomalies
above seasonal normals across the Southern Plains. Upper dynamics
will support ascent ahead of a longwave trough entering the West
Coast, as well as embedded short waves. As ridging builds in
across the east, this will also promote strong southerly flow and a
low level jet over the Southern Plains to continue to advect
moisture and instability into the area. At the surface, a dry line
across West Texas will help serve as an initiating mechanism for
convection in the afternoon. Thunderstorm activity will migrate
eastward through the Permian Basin and Western Rolling Plains,
eventually making headway into the adjacent Concho Valley and lower
Trans Pecos. As cells merge due to cold pool mergers and low-level
jet initiation, a large cluster of heavy rainfall will ensue
through the rest of Saturday night into Sunday morning.

The latest model guidance remains unchanged in depicting a signal
for 2-4 inches possible from the Concho Valley in West Texas to the
Red River Valley in southern Oklahoma. Neighborhood 24 hr QPF HREF probabilities show a strong signal for 50-80% for 2 inches for
this region and 40-70% for 3 inches. A Slight Risk for Excessive
Rainfall remains in effect across portions of the Southern Plains,
especially the areas referenced above.

...Upper Midwest and Great Lakes...

A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall was introduced across
Wisconsin and northern Michigan. Moisture will increase along a
warm front lifting northward through the region and will likely
see storms fire along the boundary during the afternoon. The
overall QPF footprint looks fairly modest in the 1" range, but
hydrological concerns from melting snow and high river levels may
allow for runoff concerns. Flash flooding prospects will be more
isolated in general, however, we will be monitoring the combination
of snow melt and heavy rainfall very carefully as high SWE levels
over the northern Great Lakes are likely to pose problems in the
next several days. A Flood Watch is already in effect across the
Michigan U.P. as a result of the impending pattern.

Wilder/Campbell

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL TEXAS...

...Central Texas...

Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms will persist across the Southern/Central Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley given high
moisture presence, favorable wind shear and instability in place.
A meandering dry line across the region will provide a focus for
backbuilding cells. With limited eastward progression of the QPF
footprint expected during this period, there is a growing threat
for flash flood concerns across portions of Hill Country to the I-35
corridor south of Dallas. A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall is
now in effect for central Texas for the threat with a Marginal Risk
extending northeastward through Oklahoma and adjacent areas of Kansas/Missouri/Arkansas.

...Northern Michigan...

A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall remains across northern
Michigan on Sunday as moisture transport from the south will
interact with a frontal boundary across northern Michigan. This will
provide a lifting mechanism for additional showers and
thunderstorms. Model guidance averaged around 1-2 inches of rain in
the 24 hour period. Snow melt concerns and high river levels will
increase the possibility for run-off, similarly to Saturday. The
area of interest will shift a bit east to encompass more of the
eastern Michigan U.P., as well as the northern portion of the mitt
in Michigan.

Wilder/Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6HftM4tZnJyvET-Dv2ZNlFpj1d0SzmLhZ7Hm-zB91TE9= hdlTbmbRRmKD2LHtJytvEIWzU3JakmC8lFIZTzKc_DBnOco$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6HftM4tZnJyvET-Dv2ZNlFpj1d0SzmLhZ7Hm-zB91TE9= hdlTbmbRRmKD2LHtJytvEIWzU3JakmC8lFIZTzKcUwk6-8k$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6HftM4tZnJyvET-Dv2ZNlFpj1d0SzmLhZ7Hm-zB91TE9= hdlTbmbRRmKD2LHtJytvEIWzU3JakmC8lFIZTzKctOozA5k$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 110812
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
412 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...Southern Plains...

The presence of an increasing southerly low level will transport=20
Gulf moisture northward and pool over the Plains and Mississippi=20
Valley as an upper level trough enters the West and ridging builds=20
over the East. Meanwhile the upper dynamics and embedded shortwave
energy will support ascent ahead of a longwave trough. At the=20
surface, a dry line across West Texas will help serve as an=20
initiating mechanism for convection in the afternoon. Strong to
severe thunderstorms are expected to fire up over the Southern and
Central High Plains, migrating eastward eventually making headway=20
into the adjacent Concho Valley and lower Trans Pecos. As cells=20
merge due to cold pool mergers and low-level jet initiation, a=20
large cluster of heavy rainfall will ensue through the rest of=20
Saturday night into Sunday morning.

General consensus maintains 2-4 inches possible from the Concho=20
Valley in West Texas to the Red River Valley in southern Oklahoma.=20 Neighborhood 24 hr QPF HREF probabilities show a strong signal for=20
50-80% for 2 inches for this region and 40-70% for 3 inches. A=20
Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall remains in effect across=20
portions of the Southern Plains, especially the areas referenced=20
above.

...Upper Midwest and Great Lakes...

Scattered to widespread convection is expected across parts of
Wisconsin and Michigan as moisture increase along a warm front=20
lifting northward through the region. Areal averages of around 1
inch are still on track. Much of the region will be sensitive to
additional precipitation as there has been ongoing snow melt and
high river flows. Although it may be isolated, flash flooding=20
may be possible during this period. A Flood Watch remains in effect
across the Michigan U.P. and far northern Lower Michigan and
Wisconsin.

...Northeast Kansas to the Missouri/Iowa border...

Ongoing convection from overnight is producing some decent rainfall
rates from northeast Kansas to northern Missouri. Most of the
guidance show convection dying down during the morning hours and
diminished by 18Z. There is a non zero chance that there may be
very isolated heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flash
flooding.

Campbell

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL TEXAS...

...Central Texas...

Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms will persist across the Southern/Central Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley given high
moisture presence, favorable wind shear and instability in place.
A meandering dry line across the region will provide a focus for
backbuilding cells. With limited eastward progression of the QPF
footprint expected during this period, there is a growing threat
for flash flood concerns across portions of Hill Country to the I-35
corridor south of Dallas. A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall is
now in effect for central Texas for the threat with a Marginal Risk
extending northeastward through Oklahoma and adjacent areas of Kansas/Missouri/Arkansas.

...Northern Michigan...

Gulf moisture will continue to transport northward and interact
with the frontal boundary draped across the region. An additional 1
to 2 inches of rain is expected across the upper portion of the
Mitten which may expedite local snow melt and runoff. A Marginal=20
Risk for Excessive Rainfall remains in effect across northern=20
Michigan.

Campbell/Wilder

Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 14 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...

Showers and thunderstorms will persist through this period as the
warm front lifts into southern Canadian and the cold front advances
through the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Additional rainfall will maintained an elevated threat for isolated
flash flooding and speed up snow melt around the region. A Marginal
Risk remains in effect from eastern Minnesota to northern Michigan.


Campbell

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4A5szqa1Xa7Oag03--tu35ZKwksQM8FBgeVHABn44K_7= wHgaHFwnLfZA8I9BUw-S1qMgnyJ-lYUwmgxmMkxrgfXSEjM$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4A5szqa1Xa7Oag03--tu35ZKwksQM8FBgeVHABn44K_7= wHgaHFwnLfZA8I9BUw-S1qMgnyJ-lYUwmgxmMkxrBiPnHQ0$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4A5szqa1Xa7Oag03--tu35ZKwksQM8FBgeVHABn44K_7= wHgaHFwnLfZA8I9BUw-S1qMgnyJ-lYUwmgxmMkxrEJuRr28$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 111243
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
843 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Day 1
Valid 1227Z Sat Apr 11 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...Central Plains...

A persistent MCS responsible for periods of excessive rainfall and
resulting flash flooding will continue through the remainder of=20
this morning. The 12Z TOP sounding shows as much as 1,000 J/kg of=20
MUCAPE, along with a saturated and nearly 8,000ft warm cloud layer=20
aloft, plus a highly sheared environment featuring excellent low-=20
level SRH in the sfc-1km layer that exceeds 250 m2/s2. The ARW has=20
handled this complex the best and it suggests organized=20
thunderstorms for at least a few more hours over northeast KS that=20
could expand into far northwest MO. WPC MPD #0090 has been=20
highlighting the threat, but with several more hours of excessive=20
rainfall expected to continue deeper into the day, WPC has upgraded
portions of the Central Plains to a Marginal Risk for additional=20
flash flooding today.

Mullinax


---Previous Discussion---

...Southern Plains...

The presence of an increasing southerly low level will transport
Gulf moisture northward and pool over the Plains and Mississippi
Valley as an upper level trough enters the West and ridging builds
over the East. Meanwhile the upper dynamics and embedded shortwave
energy will support ascent ahead of a longwave trough. At the
surface, a dry line across West Texas will help serve as an
initiating mechanism for convection in the afternoon. Strong to
severe thunderstorms are expected to fire up over the Southern and
Central High Plains, migrating eastward eventually making headway
into the adjacent Concho Valley and lower Trans Pecos. As cells
merge due to cold pool mergers and low-level jet initiation, a
large cluster of heavy rainfall will ensue through the rest of
Saturday night into Sunday morning.

General consensus maintains 2-4 inches possible from the Concho
Valley in West Texas to the Red River Valley in southern Oklahoma.
Neighborhood 24 hr QPF HREF probabilities show a strong signal for
50-80% for 2 inches for this region and 40-70% for 3 inches. A
Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall remains in effect across
portions of the Southern Plains, especially the areas referenced
above.

...Upper Midwest and Great Lakes...

Scattered to widespread convection is expected across parts of
Wisconsin and Michigan as moisture increase along a warm front
lifting northward through the region. Areal averages of around 1
inch are still on track. Much of the region will be sensitive to
additional precipitation as there has been ongoing snow melt and
high river flows. Although it may be isolated, flash flooding
may be possible during this period. A Flood Watch remains in effect
across the Michigan U.P. and far northern Lower Michigan and
Wisconsin.

...Northeast Kansas to the Missouri/Iowa border...

Ongoing convection from overnight is producing some decent rainfall
rates from northeast Kansas to northern Missouri. Most of the
guidance show convection dying down during the morning hours and
diminished by 18Z. There is a non zero chance that there may be
very isolated heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flash
flooding.

Campbell

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL TEXAS...

...Central Texas...

Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms will persist across the Southern/Central Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley given high
moisture presence, favorable wind shear and instability in place.
A meandering dry line across the region will provide a focus for
backbuilding cells. With limited eastward progression of the QPF
footprint expected during this period, there is a growing threat
for flash flood concerns across portions of Hill Country to the I-35
corridor south of Dallas. A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall is
now in effect for central Texas for the threat with a Marginal Risk
extending northeastward through Oklahoma and adjacent areas of Kansas/Missouri/Arkansas.

...Northern Michigan...

Gulf moisture will continue to transport northward and interact
with the frontal boundary draped across the region. An additional 1
to 2 inches of rain is expected across the upper portion of the
Mitten which may expedite local snow melt and runoff. A Marginal
Risk for Excessive Rainfall remains in effect across northern
Michigan.

Campbell/Wilder

Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 14 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...

Showers and thunderstorms will persist through this period as the
warm front lifts into southern Canadian and the cold front advances
through the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Additional rainfall will maintained an elevated threat for isolated
flash flooding and speed up snow melt around the region. A Marginal
Risk remains in effect from eastern Minnesota to northern Michigan.


Campbell

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!461lCN3RtRNa79IdBtr0alUC-oHAR3j7rtXhFTGhgEXf= sxQjaUwVDhjjQqee1Gtq5kMiTde1wSqRxVZYgPbzDHAAszg$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!461lCN3RtRNa79IdBtr0alUC-oHAR3j7rtXhFTGhgEXf= sxQjaUwVDhjjQqee1Gtq5kMiTde1wSqRxVZYgPbzy0Rq04I$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!461lCN3RtRNa79IdBtr0alUC-oHAR3j7rtXhFTGhgEXf= sxQjaUwVDhjjQqee1Gtq5kMiTde1wSqRxVZYgPbzN8r5pDw$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 111553
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1153 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sat Apr 11 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...Central Plains...

The MCS responsible for periods of excessive rainfall and=20
resulting flash flooding will continue through the remainder of=20
this morning. The 12Z TOP sounding shows as much as 1,000 J/kg of=20
MUCAPE, along with a saturated and nearly 8,000ft warm cloud layer=20
aloft, plus a highly sheared environment featuring excellent low-=20
level SRH in the sfc-1km layer that exceeds 250 m2/s2. The ARW has=20
handled this complex the best, and its new 12Z run suggests=20
organized thunderstorms will linger for at least a couple more=20
hours over northeast KS and far northwest MO. WPC has issued a new
MPD, #0091, to highlight the ongoing flash flood threat. But with=20
several more hours of excessive rainfall expected, opted to=20
maintain the Marginal Risk until at least the 01Z update.

Mullinax

...Southern Plains...

Flash flooding is very much a concern from the Big Bend on north
and east through the heart of TX this evening and into tonight.
NAEFS shows anomalous IVT values over 500 kg/m/s (above the 97.5
climatological percentile) ahead of an approaching 200-500mb mean
trough axis. Current visible satellite paints a generally broken
cloud field over much of the state, although some surface based
heating should allow for up to 1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE late afternoon
and this evening. Storms initiating along the dryline will have a
favorable vertical wind profile that sports sufficient shear
(30-40kts of sfc-6km shear) and sfc-3km storm-realtive helicity
(SRH) >100 m2/s2. Any discrete cells initially should manifest=20
into a congealed cluster with some cells potentially training and=20 back-building north of the Rio Grande. The new 12Z HREF shows
pockets of moderate-to-high chances (50-80%) for rainfall totals

3" from the Rio Grande to as far north as the Red River. More

concerningly, there are moderate chances (40-50%) for localized
totals >5" close to Del Rio, TX. While a moderate was considered,
ultimately held a Slight given the regions lower FFGs. However,
this is more of a "high-end" Slight, given the potential for
rainfall rates up to 2"/hr and the typical flash flood risks that
the TX Hill Country has a long history of enduring.=20

Mullinax

---Previous Discussion---

The presence of an increasing southerly low level will transport
Gulf moisture northward and pool over the Plains and Mississippi
Valley as an upper level trough enters the West and ridging builds
over the East. Meanwhile the upper dynamics and embedded shortwave
energy will support ascent ahead of a longwave trough. At the
surface, a dry line across West Texas will help serve as an
initiating mechanism for convection in the afternoon. Strong to
severe thunderstorms are expected to fire up over the Southern and
Central High Plains, migrating eastward eventually making headway
into the adjacent Concho Valley and lower Trans Pecos. As cells
merge due to cold pool mergers and low-level jet initiation, a
large cluster of heavy rainfall will ensue through the rest of
Saturday night into Sunday morning.

General consensus maintains 2-4 inches possible from the Concho
Valley in West Texas to the Red River Valley in southern Oklahoma.
Neighborhood 24 hr QPF HREF probabilities show a strong signal for
50-80% for 2 inches for this region and 40-70% for 3 inches. A
Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall remains in effect across
portions of the Southern Plains, especially the areas referenced
above.

Campbell

...Upper Midwest and Great Lakes...

The Marginal Risk was expanded southward into southern WI,
northeast IA, and northern IL for the 16Z update. Latest ARW and=20
HRRR have trended south with their QPF axis with storms forming=20
closer to the lifting warming front. This setup has eerily similar=20 characteristics that led to the flash flooding in northeast KS=20
this morning; sheared lobes of 500mb vorticity to the west of the=20 upper-level ridge axis with area-averaged soundings showing=20
notable low-level SRH values and over 500 J/kg of MUCAPE aloft.=20
Warm cloud layers at least 8,000ft deep and NAEFS highlighting a=20
robust 750 kg/m/s IVT over central IA being aimed at southern WI
tonight also supported both warm rain processes and healthy=20
moisture advection. 1-hr FFGs remain as low as 1" in some locations
given the saturated soils in place. With these factors accounted=20
for, the Marginal Risk will focus on the potential for flash=20
flooding in these aforementioned areas tonight and into the early=20
morning hours on Sunday.=20

Mullinax

---Previous Discussion---

Scattered to widespread convection is expected across parts of
Wisconsin and Michigan as moisture increase along a warm front
lifting northward through the region. Areal averages of around 1
inch are still on track. Much of the region will be sensitive to
additional precipitation as there has been ongoing snow melt and
high river flows. Although it may be isolated, flash flooding
may be possible during this period. A Flood Watch remains in effect
across the Michigan U.P. and far northern Lower Michigan and
Wisconsin.

Campbell

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL TEXAS...

...Central Texas...

Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms will persist across the Southern/Central Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley given high
moisture presence, favorable wind shear and instability in place.
A meandering dry line across the region will provide a focus for
backbuilding cells. With limited eastward progression of the QPF
footprint expected during this period, there is a growing threat
for flash flood concerns across portions of Hill Country to the I-35
corridor south of Dallas. A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall is
now in effect for central Texas for the threat with a Marginal Risk
extending northeastward through Oklahoma and adjacent areas of Kansas/Missouri/Arkansas.

...Northern Michigan...

Gulf moisture will continue to transport northward and interact
with the frontal boundary draped across the region. An additional 1
to 2 inches of rain is expected across the upper portion of the
Mitten which may expedite local snow melt and runoff. A Marginal
Risk for Excessive Rainfall remains in effect across northern
Michigan.

Campbell/Wilder

Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 14 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...

Showers and thunderstorms will persist through this period as the
warm front lifts into southern Canadian and the cold front advances
through the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Additional rainfall will maintained an elevated threat for isolated
flash flooding and speed up snow melt around the region. A Marginal
Risk remains in effect from eastern Minnesota to northern Michigan.


Campbell

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4B4I9pUp1VyuoOBNGD00CJXVkbS1ulCJJnIaVVjud_6x= OzcXuP-Dvwf9fimVqX2qLcDC4A5-I-l1mem2KoKlpTjGanQ$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4B4I9pUp1VyuoOBNGD00CJXVkbS1ulCJJnIaVVjud_6x= OzcXuP-Dvwf9fimVqX2qLcDC4A5-I-l1mem2KoKlSeLQ060$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4B4I9pUp1VyuoOBNGD00CJXVkbS1ulCJJnIaVVjud_6x= OzcXuP-Dvwf9fimVqX2qLcDC4A5-I-l1mem2KoKlXG723AI$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 111915
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sat Apr 11 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...Central Plains...

The MCS responsible for periods of excessive rainfall and
resulting flash flooding will continue through the remainder of
this morning. The 12Z TOP sounding shows as much as 1,000 J/kg of
MUCAPE, along with a saturated and nearly 8,000ft warm cloud layer
aloft, plus a highly sheared environment featuring excellent low-
level SRH in the sfc-1km layer that exceeds 250 m2/s2. The ARW has
handled this complex the best, and its new 12Z run suggests
organized thunderstorms will linger for at least a couple more
hours over northeast KS and far northwest MO. WPC has issued a new
MPD, #0091, to highlight the ongoing flash flood threat. But with
several more hours of excessive rainfall expected, opted to
maintain the Marginal Risk until at least the 01Z update.

Mullinax

...Southern Plains...

Flash flooding is very much a concern from the Big Bend on north
and east through the heart of TX this evening and into tonight.
NAEFS shows anomalous IVT values over 500 kg/m/s (above the 97.5
climatological percentile) ahead of an approaching 200-500mb mean
trough axis. Current visible satellite paints a generally broken
cloud field over much of the state, although some surface based
heating should allow for up to 1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE late afternoon
and this evening. Storms initiating along the dryline will have a
favorable vertical wind profile that sports sufficient shear
(30-40kts of sfc-6km shear) and sfc-3km storm-realtive helicity
(SRH) >100 m2/s2. Any discrete cells initially should manifest
into a congealed cluster with some cells potentially training and
back-building north of the Rio Grande. The new 12Z HREF shows
pockets of moderate-to-high chances (50-80%) for rainfall totals

3" from the Rio Grande to as far north as the Red River. More

concerningly, there are moderate chances (40-50%) for localized
totals >5" close to Del Rio, TX. While a moderate was considered,
ultimately held a Slight given the regions lower FFGs. However,
this is more of a "high-end" Slight, given the potential for
rainfall rates up to 2"/hr and the typical flash flood risks that
the TX Hill Country has a long history of enduring.

Mullinax

---Previous Discussion---

The presence of an increasing southerly low level will transport
Gulf moisture northward and pool over the Plains and Mississippi
Valley as an upper level trough enters the West and ridging builds
over the East. Meanwhile the upper dynamics and embedded shortwave
energy will support ascent ahead of a longwave trough. At the
surface, a dry line across West Texas will help serve as an
initiating mechanism for convection in the afternoon. Strong to
severe thunderstorms are expected to fire up over the Southern and
Central High Plains, migrating eastward eventually making headway
into the adjacent Concho Valley and lower Trans Pecos. As cells
merge due to cold pool mergers and low-level jet initiation, a
large cluster of heavy rainfall will ensue through the rest of
Saturday night into Sunday morning.

General consensus maintains 2-4 inches possible from the Concho
Valley in West Texas to the Red River Valley in southern Oklahoma.
Neighborhood 24 hr QPF HREF probabilities show a strong signal for
50-80% for 2 inches for this region and 40-70% for 3 inches. A
Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall remains in effect across
portions of the Southern Plains, especially the areas referenced
above.

Campbell

...Upper Midwest and Great Lakes...

The Marginal Risk was expanded southward into southern WI,
northeast IA, and northern IL for the 16Z update. Latest ARW and
HRRR have trended south with their QPF axis with storms forming
closer to the lifting warming front. This setup has eerily similar characteristics that led to the flash flooding in northeast KS
this morning; sheared lobes of 500mb vorticity to the west of the
upper-level ridge axis with area-averaged soundings showing
notable low-level SRH values and over 500 J/kg of MUCAPE aloft.
Warm cloud layers at least 8,000ft deep and NAEFS highlighting a
robust 750 kg/m/s IVT over central IA being aimed at southern WI
tonight also supported both warm rain processes and healthy
moisture advection. 1-hr FFGs remain as low as 1" in some locations
given the saturated soils in place. With these factors accounted
for, the Marginal Risk will focus on the potential for flash
flooding in these aforementioned areas tonight and into the early
morning hours on Sunday.

Mullinax

---Previous Discussion---

Scattered to widespread convection is expected across parts of
Wisconsin and Michigan as moisture increase along a warm front
lifting northward through the region. Areal averages of around 1
inch are still on track. Much of the region will be sensitive to
additional precipitation as there has been ongoing snow melt and
high river flows. Although it may be isolated, flash flooding
may be possible during this period. A Flood Watch remains in effect
across the Michigan U.P. and far northern Lower Michigan and
Wisconsin.

Campbell

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL=20
TEXAS...

...Central Texas...

Broad troughing in the west will continue to direct sheared 500mb
vorticity maxima at the Southern Plains as a narrow 250mb jet
streak over the Central Plains places its divergent right-entrance
region over central and southern TX. Between the trough in the West
and high pressure over the Southeast, a strong IVT exceeding 500
kg/m/s will engulf much of the Southern Plains with 1,000-2,000
J/kg of MLCAPE. Storms will form Sunday afternoon and continue into
Sunday night along and ahead of the dryline. Vertical wind shear
and low-level helicity will be sufficient to support strong-to-
severe storms, but the uncertainty lies in the orientation of
surface troughs and outflow boundaries that reinvigorate storms
Sunday night, and where they are located. Some CAMs show some more
progressive segments of storms, while others show potential for
back-building and training.

12Z HREF guidance, specifically 24-hr QPF probabilities, show
moderate chances (40-60%) for rainfall totals >2", with the bulk of
the rainfall coming after 18Z and before 12Z Sunday. There are some
low chance probabilities (20-30%) along I-35 from San Antonio to
Austin. Southern and eastern TX badly need rainfall (UNL drought
monitor shows severe drought in many places), but excessive
rainfall rates approaching 2"/hr over very dry/hard ground can
become hydrophobic. Add in the metro areas at risk (I-35 corridor)
and the inherited Slight Risk still looks to be on track.=20

The expansive area of anomalous moisture (>90th climatological
percentile per NAEFS) extends as far north as eastern OK, southeast
KS, and southwest MO. Excessive Rainfall in these areas will be
largely driven by the aforementioned 250mb jet streak as southerly
850mb winds inject the moisture into this divergent setup aloft.
Soundings are not as saturated and storm motions are faster, thus
supporting the Marginal Risk currently in place.

...Northern Michigan...

Gulf moisture will continue to transport northward and interact
with the frontal boundary draped across the region. NAEFS shows PWs
and IVT values that are above the 99th climatological percentile
over a region that features a combination of saturated soils and=20
lingering snowpack. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain is forecast
across the upper portion of the Mitten,causing any lingering=20
snowpack to melt and possibly exacerbate the flooding potential on=20
Sunday. With little change in the forecast, a Marginal Risk for=20
Excessive Rainfall remains in effect across northern Michigan.

Mullinax

Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 14 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...

Following a brief lull in the action Monday morning, showers and=20 thunderstorms will return across the Upper MS Valley and into the=20
Great Lakes Monday afternoon and into Monday night. 500mb PVA and=20
jet streak dynamics will foster excellent vertical ascent within=20
the column at the same time another anomalous moisture plume
arrives ahead of a developing low pressure system. Additional=20
rainfall will prolong an elevated threat for flash flooding and=20
speed up snow melt around the region, most notably the U.P. of
Michigan. A Marginal Risk remains in effect from eastern Minnesota
to northern Michigan.

Mullinax

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!91kz_cXFxSMcDwZJWEEJuxqaOMTTq_mSexG7rWFF3-Ql= _UGdh6MsxuUrYR8yW3rzPNzsrrZGfIwDe3aZrAYpdwvo93w$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!91kz_cXFxSMcDwZJWEEJuxqaOMTTq_mSexG7rWFF3-Ql= _UGdh6MsxuUrYR8yW3rzPNzsrrZGfIwDe3aZrAYpdbfw928$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!91kz_cXFxSMcDwZJWEEJuxqaOMTTq_mSexG7rWFF3-Ql= _UGdh6MsxuUrYR8yW3rzPNzsrrZGfIwDe3aZrAYp8OeZCts$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 120048
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
848 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Sun Apr 12 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...Southern Plains...

Flash flooding is very much a concern from the Big Bend on north
and east through the heart of TX this evening and into tonight.
NAEFS shows anomalous IVT values over 500 kg/m/s (above the 97.5
climatological percentile) ahead of an approaching 200-500mb mean
trough axis. Current visible satellite paints a generally broken
cloud field over much of the state, although some surface based
heating should allow for up to 1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE late afternoon
and this evening. Storms initiating along the dryline will have a
favorable vertical wind profile that sports sufficient shear
(30-40kts of sfc-6km shear) and sfc-3km storm-realtive helicity
(SRH) >100 m2/s2. Any discrete cells initially should manifest
into a congealed cluster with some cells potentially training and
back-building north of the Rio Grande. The new 12Z HREF shows
pockets of moderate-to-high chances (50-80%) for rainfall totals

3" from the Rio Grande to as far north as the Red River. More

concerningly, there are moderate chances (40-50%) for localized
totals >5" close to Del Rio, TX. While a moderate was considered,
ultimately held a Slight given the regions lower FFGs. However,
this is more of a "high-end" Slight, given the potential for
rainfall rates up to 2"/hr and the typical flash flood risks that
the TX Hill Country has a long history of enduring.

Mullinax

...Central Plains...

Guidance has struggled with the renewed convection along and s-sw
of the warm front across southern-central portions of KS, and
although there is some convective inhibition (MUCAPES trending down
over the past few hours), per the latest IR loops (streaks of
cooling cloud tops), additional organized clusters will maintain
the Marginal Risk area overnight into central portions of KS.

Hurley

...Upper Midwest and Great Lakes...

While still a non-zero threat, believe the 40km/25mi neighborhood=20 probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than
5 percent. Deep-layer instability is sorely lacking, as such are
rainfall rates, and even though there will be some uptick
overnight (elevated CAPEs climbing between 250-500 J/Kg), the=20
latest guidance trends, including 18Z HREF QPF exceedance=20
probabilities, suggest that the 1-3 hourly rainfall rates will=20
remain below FFG for the most part (i.e. likely >95% of the=20
activity).

Hurley


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL
TEXAS...

...Central Texas...

Broad troughing in the west will continue to direct sheared 500mb
vorticity maxima at the Southern Plains as a narrow 250mb jet
streak over the Central Plains places its divergent right-entrance
region over central and southern TX. Between the trough in the West
and high pressure over the Southeast, a strong IVT exceeding 500
kg/m/s will engulf much of the Southern Plains with 1,000-2,000
J/kg of MLCAPE. Storms will form Sunday afternoon and continue into
Sunday night along and ahead of the dryline. Vertical wind shear
and low-level helicity will be sufficient to support strong-to-
severe storms, but the uncertainty lies in the orientation of
surface troughs and outflow boundaries that reinvigorate storms
Sunday night, and where they are located. Some CAMs show some more
progressive segments of storms, while others show potential for
back-building and training.

12Z HREF guidance, specifically 24-hr QPF probabilities, show
moderate chances (40-60%) for rainfall totals >2", with the bulk of
the rainfall coming after 18Z and before 12Z Sunday. There are some
low chance probabilities (20-30%) along I-35 from San Antonio to
Austin. Southern and eastern TX badly need rainfall (UNL drought
monitor shows severe drought in many places), but excessive
rainfall rates approaching 2"/hr over very dry/hard ground can
become hydrophobic. Add in the metro areas at risk (I-35 corridor)
and the inherited Slight Risk still looks to be on track.

The expansive area of anomalous moisture (>90th climatological
percentile per NAEFS) extends as far north as eastern OK, southeast
KS, and southwest MO. Excessive Rainfall in these areas will be
largely driven by the aforementioned 250mb jet streak as southerly
850mb winds inject the moisture into this divergent setup aloft.
Soundings are not as saturated and storm motions are faster, thus
supporting the Marginal Risk currently in place.

...Northern Michigan...

Gulf moisture will continue to transport northward and interact
with the frontal boundary draped across the region. NAEFS shows PWs
and IVT values that are above the 99th climatological percentile
over a region that features a combination of saturated soils and
lingering snowpack. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain is forecast
across the upper portion of the Mitten,causing any lingering
snowpack to melt and possibly exacerbate the flooding potential on
Sunday. With little change in the forecast, a Marginal Risk for
Excessive Rainfall remains in effect across northern Michigan.

Mullinax

Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 14 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...

Following a brief lull in the action Monday morning, showers and
thunderstorms will return across the Upper MS Valley and into the
Great Lakes Monday afternoon and into Monday night. 500mb PVA and
jet streak dynamics will foster excellent vertical ascent within
the column at the same time another anomalous moisture plume
arrives ahead of a developing low pressure system. Additional
rainfall will prolong an elevated threat for flash flooding and
speed up snow melt around the region, most notably the U.P. of
Michigan. A Marginal Risk remains in effect from eastern Minnesota
to northern Michigan.

Mullinax

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7IH91RxoB5kk9J_MCL3MEx8Tmf63EhjGdGs0cSedNiUX= 24g4i_wxHaXQXcoylRqfMfPohAOXTNot34tEgMj8m9iIQ5I$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7IH91RxoB5kk9J_MCL3MEx8Tmf63EhjGdGs0cSedNiUX= 24g4i_wxHaXQXcoylRqfMfPohAOXTNot34tEgMj8M_eL9fU$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7IH91RxoB5kk9J_MCL3MEx8Tmf63EhjGdGs0cSedNiUX= 24g4i_wxHaXQXcoylRqfMfPohAOXTNot34tEgMj8A4zJsjs$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 120810
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
410 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL=20
TEXAS...

...Central Texas...

Broad troughing in the west will continue to direct sheared 500mb
vorticity maxima at the Southern Plains as a narrow 250mb jet
streak over the Central Plains places its divergent right-entrance
region over central and southern TX. Between the trough in the West
and high pressure over the Southeast, a strong IVT exceeding 500
kg/m/s will engulf much of the Southern Plains with 1,000-2,000
J/kg of MLCAPE. Convection will fire up along and ahead of the
dryline during the afternoon and evening hours. Vertical wind=20
shear and low-level helicity will be sufficient to support strong-
to- severe storms, but the uncertainty lies in the orientation of=20
surface troughs and outflow boundaries that reinvigorate storms=20
Sunday night, and where they are located. Some CAMs show some more=20 progressive segments of storms, while others show potential for=20 back-building and training.

12Z HREF guidance, specifically 24-hr QPF probabilities, show
moderate chances (40-60%) for rainfall totals >2", with the bulk of
the rainfall coming after 18Z and before 12Z Sunday. There are some
low chance probabilities (20-30%) along I-35 from San Antonio to
Austin. Southern and eastern TX badly need rainfall (UNL drought
monitor shows severe drought in many places), but excessive
rainfall rates approaching 2"/hr over very dry/hard ground can
become hydrophobic. Add in the metro areas at risk (I-35 corridor)
and the inherited Slight Risk still looks to be on track.

The expansive area of anomalous moisture (>90th climatological
percentile per NAEFS) extends as far north as eastern OK, southeast
KS, and southwest MO. Excessive Rainfall in these areas will be
largely driven by the aforementioned 250mb jet streak as southerly
850mb winds inject the moisture into this divergent setup aloft.
Soundings are not as saturated and storm motions are faster, thus
supporting the Marginal Risk currently in place.

...Northern Michigan...

A Marginal Risk remains in effect for this period. Anomalous Gulf=20
moisture pumping northward will interact with the draped frontal=20
boundary to bring enhanced rainfall to the region. NAEFS continue=20
to show PWs and IVT values that are above the 99th climatological=20
percentile that features a combination of saturated soils and=20
lingering snowpack. Accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are anticipated=20
for the northern half of Mitten which may cause any lingering=20
snowpack to melt and possibly exacerbate the flooding potential on=20
Sunday.

Campbell/Mullinax


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 14 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will move through the
Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes during the afternoon and
evening hours, prolonging the threat for excessive rainfall,
increased snow melt and flash flooding. A Marginal Risk
remains in effect from eastern Minnesota to northern Michigan.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 14 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 15 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE TEXAS
HILL COUNTRY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...

Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms expected from=20
Texas to the Midwest states, given favorable wind shear and=20
instability in place as multiple impulses eject across the Plains.
Gulf moisture will be funneling northward between the trough over
the Rockies and the ridge over the eastern states. The environment
will be favorable for a few mesoscale convective systems to=20
develop and the limited eastward progression will likely result in
areas that have excessive rainfall leading to some instances of=20
flash flooding. A Marginal Risk area span from the Texas Hill
Country northeastward to the Midwest and western Great Lakes.

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8MD1yKpUhy1_ob1SCV8k7-fXDu08peEa0R74xuX1isJs= tAF9cl93qaEcaZ5bENXfutBcc37XhEAKGkiC7CQuFBFMSdg$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8MD1yKpUhy1_ob1SCV8k7-fXDu08peEa0R74xuX1isJs= tAF9cl93qaEcaZ5bENXfutBcc37XhEAKGkiC7CQu551b5P8$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8MD1yKpUhy1_ob1SCV8k7-fXDu08peEa0R74xuX1isJs= tAF9cl93qaEcaZ5bENXfutBcc37XhEAKGkiC7CQu4DLNirY$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 121531
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1131 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sun Apr 12 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

...Texas...

16Z Update: Conditions for a localized area of significant rainfall
are increasing as of the latest 12z CAMs and associated hi-res
ensemble with a QPF maxima positioned across the I-35 and points
just east to the I-45 corridor in eastern TX. Current radar
analysis shows a progressive line of thunderstorms migrating
eastward with a weakening disposition as of the last 30 minutes.
This set of storms will fade over the next few hours with a
secondary batch of cells likely to materialize to the southwest
across the I-35 corridor between Killeen to Austin on the edge of a
remnant cold pool from the aforementioned storms. Areal MUCAPE will
increase given favored diurnal instability leading to a widespread
area of 1000-2000 J/kg situated across the I-35 corridor and points
east with 2000-2500 a bit further back into Hill Country which will
lie within the western flank of any expected convective
development. Environmental parameters of shear and instability
along with a remnant cold pool will act as a favored initiation
point this afternoon with multi-cell modes and cold pool mergers=20
likely to enhance a more organized convective cluster across east-
central TX.=20

This first batch will have the ability to drop appreciable amounts
of rainfall with some of the CAMs insistent on QPF maxima between=20
3-5" on the first round of convective development with hourly rates
between 1-3"/hr in the stronger cell cores. Despite the drier=20
antecedent conditions in place, the overall hourly rates confined=20
within a narrow corridor would be sufficient to induce some=20
isolated to widely scattered flash flood signals within a region=20
that is prone to flash flooding due to the complexity of terrain=20
and unfavorable limestone bases that promote high run off=20
capabilities.=20

The real concern is what is being depicted in the evening as
another batch of thunderstorms is forecast to materialize within
the southern edge of a remnant cold pool from prior convection,
coupling with a weak LLJ developing across east TX after 00z. The
convergence pattern is well-documented across the area between I-35
to I-45 with a general overlapping in that zone from the latest
CAMs. Neighborhood probabilities for >5" total in the D1 period
have escalated to 30-45% across the above zone with a bullseye
centered between Austin/Brenham/San Marcos. Where this overlap
occurs with the previous round of convection, locally significant
flash flooding will be plausible considering the priming and totals
being represented in the means. HREF blended mean QPF is solidly
above 4" for multiple areas between the two major TX interstates
with some 5" pixels showing up over those areas east of I-35. The
SLGT risk in place has been expanded a bit further south to account
for these trends with the risk likely leaning towards the higher
end of the threshold. If the setup gains near term traction, a
targeted upgrade to a higher risk is not out of the question, so
this one will bear watching.=20

Kleebauer

...Great Lakes...

16Z Update: The MRGL risk remains in effect across northern MI, but
was expanded further west-northwest into the MI U.P. and northern
WI to adjust for the latest trends and observations of ongoing
rainfall and minor flooding taking shape in these areas. Secondary
batch of elevated convection migrating northeast out of
MN/southwestern WI will entice more localized hydrologic concerns
over the area where the coupling of snow melt and moderate to heavy
rainfall will enhance flooding of rivers and streams littered
across the northern Great Lakes. Some flood reports are trickling
in across the area already, so want to cover bases with a low-end
flash flood threat to mingle with the river flood prospects as
multiple rounds of convection are anticipated through the period.
The next batch will drive up from the south as a weak shortwave
enters from the central Midwest and provides another period of
convectively driven rainfall from south to north beginning in IA/IL
and moving northeast impacting parts of the Door Peninsula into the
northern mitt of MI.=20

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

A Marginal Risk remains in effect for this period. Anomalous Gulf
moisture pumping northward will interact with the draped frontal
boundary to bring enhanced rainfall to the region. NAEFS continue
to show PWs and IVT values that are above the 99th climatological
percentile that features a combination of saturated soils and
lingering snowpack. Accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are anticipated
for the northern half of Mitten which may cause any lingering
snowpack to melt and possibly exacerbate the flooding potential on
Sunday.

Campbell/Mullinax


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 14 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will move through the
Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes during the afternoon and
evening hours, prolonging the threat for excessive rainfall,
increased snow melt and flash flooding. A Marginal Risk
remains in effect from eastern Minnesota to northern Michigan.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 14 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 15 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE TEXAS
HILL COUNTRY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...

Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms expected from
Texas to the Midwest states, given favorable wind shear and
instability in place as multiple impulses eject across the Plains.
Gulf moisture will be funneling northward between the trough over
the Rockies and the ridge over the eastern states. The environment
will be favorable for a few mesoscale convective systems to
develop and the limited eastward progression will likely result in
areas that have excessive rainfall leading to some instances of
flash flooding. A Marginal Risk area span from the Texas Hill
Country northeastward to the Midwest and western Great Lakes.

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5zIjXJTQYljXwyXuR4odE4MXdH78ksN33NrYWWWQ3Ab0= XjJ9oW6aIkzQnUwKKqX0r8YTzwJjKQH4WiJNguqIj9V6Y_U$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5zIjXJTQYljXwyXuR4odE4MXdH78ksN33NrYWWWQ3Ab0= XjJ9oW6aIkzQnUwKKqX0r8YTzwJjKQH4WiJNguqIzW9tJbI$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5zIjXJTQYljXwyXuR4odE4MXdH78ksN33NrYWWWQ3Ab0= XjJ9oW6aIkzQnUwKKqX0r8YTzwJjKQH4WiJNguqIWpK3zvQ$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

FOUS30 KWBC 121938
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sun Apr 12 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

...Texas...

16Z Update: Conditions for a localized area of significant rainfall
are increasing as of the latest 12z CAMs and associated hi-res
ensemble with a QPF maxima positioned across the I-35 and points
just east to the I-45 corridor in eastern TX. Current radar
analysis shows a progressive line of thunderstorms migrating
eastward with a weakening disposition as of the last 30 minutes.
This set of storms will fade over the next few hours with a
secondary batch of cells likely to materialize to the southwest
across the I-35 corridor between Killeen to Austin on the edge of a
remnant cold pool from the aforementioned storms. Areal MUCAPE will
increase given favored diurnal instability leading to a widespread
area of 1000-2000 J/kg situated across the I-35 corridor and points
east with 2000-2500 a bit further back into Hill Country which will
lie within the western flank of any expected convective
development. Environmental parameters of shear and instability
along with a remnant cold pool will act as a favored initiation
point this afternoon with multi-cell modes and cold pool mergers
likely to enhance a more organized convective cluster across east-
central TX.

This first batch will have the ability to drop appreciable amounts
of rainfall with some of the CAMs insistent on QPF maxima between
3-5" on the first round of convective development with hourly rates
between 1-3"/hr in the stronger cell cores. Despite the drier
antecedent conditions in place, the overall hourly rates confined
within a narrow corridor would be sufficient to induce some
isolated to widely scattered flash flood signals within a region
that is prone to flash flooding due to the complexity of terrain
and unfavorable limestone bases that promote high run off
capabilities.

The real concern is what is being depicted in the evening as
another batch of thunderstorms is forecast to materialize within
the southern edge of a remnant cold pool from prior convection,
coupling with a weak LLJ developing across east TX after 00z. The
convergence pattern is well-documented across the area between I-35
to I-45 with a general overlapping in that zone from the latest
CAMs. Neighborhood probabilities for >5" total in the D1 period
have escalated to 30-45% across the above zone with a bullseye
centered between Austin/Brenham/San Marcos. Where this overlap
occurs with the previous round of convection, locally significant
flash flooding will be plausible considering the priming and totals
being represented in the means. HREF blended mean QPF is solidly
above 4" for multiple areas between the two major TX interstates
with some 5" pixels showing up over those areas east of I-35. The
SLGT risk in place has been expanded a bit further south to account
for these trends with the risk likely leaning towards the higher
end of the threshold. If the setup gains near term traction, a
targeted upgrade to a higher risk is not out of the question, so
this one will bear watching.

Kleebauer

...Great Lakes...

16Z Update: The MRGL risk remains in effect across northern MI, but
was expanded further west-northwest into the MI U.P. and northern
WI to adjust for the latest trends and observations of ongoing
rainfall and minor flooding taking shape in these areas. Secondary
batch of elevated convection migrating northeast out of
MN/southwestern WI will entice more localized hydrologic concerns
over the area where the coupling of snow melt and moderate to heavy
rainfall will enhance flooding of rivers and streams littered
across the northern Great Lakes. Some flood reports are trickling
in across the area already, so want to cover bases with a low-end
flash flood threat to mingle with the river flood prospects as
multiple rounds of convection are anticipated through the period.
The next batch will drive up from the south as a weak shortwave
enters from the central Midwest and provides another period of
convectively driven rainfall from south to north beginning in IA/IL
and moving northeast impacting parts of the Door Peninsula into the
northern mitt of MI.

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

A Marginal Risk remains in effect for this period. Anomalous Gulf
moisture pumping northward will interact with the draped frontal
boundary to bring enhanced rainfall to the region. NAEFS continue
to show PWs and IVT values that are above the 99th climatological
percentile that features a combination of saturated soils and
lingering snowpack. Accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are anticipated
for the northern half of Mitten which may cause any lingering
snowpack to melt and possibly exacerbate the flooding potential on
Sunday.

Campbell/Mullinax


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 14 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...

20Z Update: Little change was necessary to the inherited MRGL risk
across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. High neighborhood probs=20
(60-90%) for >1" totals across the region coupled with rapid snow
melt over the U.P. and northern WI should enhance hydrologic
concerns for the period. Minor flooding occurring in D1 will
generally continue through D2 as another round of convection will
impact the area from eastern MN through the northern half of MI.
There's some elevated probabilities for rates exceeding 1"/hr
across portions of WI tomorrow evening as a formidable LLJ and=20
increasing convergence within a progressing warm front could very=20
well maximize the potential for heavier precip. This would be the=20
most notable location for the setup, but the setup is relatively=20
short- lived, so did not feel an upgrade was necessary.=20

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will move through the
Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes during the afternoon and
evening hours, prolonging the threat for excessive rainfall,
increased snow melt and flash flooding. A Marginal Risk
remains in effect from eastern Minnesota to northern Michigan.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 14 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 15 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE TEXAS
HILL COUNTRY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...

20Z Update: The broad MRGL risk for D3 was generally maintained
with multiple areas likely to see convective activity during the
period. The main area of focus will likely occur over the Midwest
as increasing diffluent axis downstream of a deep western trough
will enter the area with convective development likely to occur
over IA and motion to the east-northeast. A developing upper jet
coupling will likely aid in regional ascent with fairly generous
instability axis situated from the Corn Belt to the southern Great
Lakes and points south. Models are in agreement on there being a
solid precip footprint, but they are all over the place in regards
to the placement. In any case, there was still some time to review
with the CAMs guidance coming into the picture by tomorrow, so will
wait to see if there will be another upgrade potential with this
setup, which is leaning more towards a necessity considering the
above synoptic and thermodynamic variables.=20

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms expected from
Texas to the Midwest states, given favorable wind shear and
instability in place as multiple impulses eject across the Plains.
Gulf moisture will be funneling northward between the trough over
the Rockies and the ridge over the eastern states. The environment
will be favorable for a few mesoscale convective systems to
develop and the limited eastward progression will likely result in
areas that have excessive rainfall leading to some instances of
flash flooding. A Marginal Risk area span from the Texas Hill
Country northeastward to the Midwest and western Great Lakes.

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6VKq4I9L-Sh6yJ0W57y8aJaRd5MaM-22nNqlBQh0tbrf= HM-_22g3SmCclAw9qbt2Av1k1e7igqTjiLb_CCE0hNxVdZs$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6VKq4I9L-Sh6yJ0W57y8aJaRd5MaM-22nNqlBQh0tbrf= HM-_22g3SmCclAw9qbt2Av1k1e7igqTjiLb_CCE0L_XzbA4$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6VKq4I9L-Sh6yJ0W57y8aJaRd5MaM-22nNqlBQh0tbrf= HM-_22g3SmCclAw9qbt2Av1k1e7igqTjiLb_CCE0Z7k-rj4$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)