ACUS01 KWNS 312002
SWODY1
SPC AC 312000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 312000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large
hail are expected today from the Mid Mississippi Valley across the
Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Isolated severe storms capable
of large hail and damaging gusts are possible across western
Oklahoma and far northwest Texas as well.

...20Z Update...
The primary changes to the forecast were to adjust severe/thunder
probabilities in the Upper Midwest given the progression of the cold
front and impacts of earlier convection. The remainder of the
forecast remains on track. See MD 308/309 for additional short-term
mesoscale details.

..Wendt.. 03/31/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026/

...IL/IN/MI/OH...
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning
over northeast IL and northwest IN. These storms have a history of
hail, and are moving into an air mass that is warming/destabilizing.
Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and strong westerly flow
aloft will promote and increasing risk of organized storms capable
of hail and damaging wind gusts through the afternoon. See WW #78
and MCD #305 for further details. This activity is expected to
persist into the evening, spreading across much of northern OH with
a continued severe risk.

...Southern NY/Northern PA into New England...
Latest surface analysis shows an outflow boundary extending across
northern PA. The air mass north of the boundary is rather cool and
stable, but is expected to recover quickly this afternoon with
strong southwesterly low-level winds and daytime heating. Most CAM
solutions suggest thunderstorm activity over southeast Ontario will
intensify and affect parts of southern NY/northern PA with a risk of
locally damaging wind gusts and hail. A tornado or two is also
possible. Storms may spread into southern New England by evening
with a continued marginal severe threat.

...TX Panhandle/Western OK...
Full sunshine will result in strong heating and steep low-level
lapse rates along the dryline over the eastern TX Panhandle and
western OK this afternoon. A surface cold front will surge
southward into this region, with at least isolated thunderstorm
development expected near the triple-point by late afternoon. These
storms will track eastward into western OK through the evening.
Forecast soundings suggest a favorable environment for damaging
winds and hail with these storms.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 010040
SWODY1
SPC AC 010039

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large
hail are expected this evening from the Midwest into the central
Appalachians. Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and
damaging gusts are also possible across western Oklahoma and far
northwest Texas.

...Midwest/Central Appalachians/Mid Mississippi Valley...
Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level zonal flow pattern over the
north-central and northeastern U.S., with a low-amplitude trough
located in the western Great Lakes. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms are ongoing near the axis of a 40 to 55 knot low-level
jet from northern Indiana northeastward into the central
Appalachians. Within this corridor, RAP forecast soundings have
SBCAPE mostly in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear of 35
to 45 knots, and 0-3 km lapse rates near 7 C/km. This will be
favorable for multicell line segments capable of producing severe
wind gusts this evening. A few supercells with isolated large hail
and a marginal tornado threat will also be possible. As cells
continue to increase in coverage this evening, the development of a larger-scale multicell line segment may occur. If this happens, then
the wind-damage threat could increase into the mid to late
evening...see MCD 314.

Further southwest into parts of the mid Mississippi Valley,
scattered thunderstorms are developing near an axis of instability
where SBCAPE is around 1000 J/kg, according to the RAP. This area is
further away from the mid-level jet in the Great Lakes. For this
reason, lift and deep-layer shear are somewhat weaker in the mid
Mississippi Valley suggesting that any severe threat will remain
marginal this evening.

...Southern and Central Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over
western Kansas and western Oklahoma. At the surface, a cold front is
located from southeast Kansas extending southwestward into west
Texas. A broken line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing near the
front from southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas. The nearest
forecast sounding is at Childress, which has MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg,
0-6 km shear around 40 knots and a 850-500 mb lapse rate near 8
C/km. This should be favorable for an isolated large hail and
wind-damage threat. The threat is expected to persist for a couple
more hours.

..Broyles.. 04/01/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 010550
SWODY1
SPC AC 010548

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few
tornadoes are likely across the southern and central Plains this
afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms are also
possible from parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic.

...Southern and Central Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward across the
Desert Southwest today and into the southern Rockies. At the
surface, a moist airmass will be in place across the southern
Plains. A quasi-stationary front will be located from near Childress northeastward into southeast Kansas, with a dryline extending
southward into west-central Texas. To the southeast of the front,
surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to
moderate instability by afternoon, with MLCAPE increasing into the
2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Convective initiation will take place in
the late afternoon along the front and dryline, with a broken line
of strong to severe storms moving eastward across the southern and
central Plains.

In addition to a favorable thermodynamic environment, deep-layer
shear will gradually improve over the southern Plains as the
mid-level trough approaches. RAP forecast soundings in western
Oklahoma increase 0-6 km shear from about 25 knots at 21Z to near 40
knots at 00Z, suggesting that environment will support supercell
development in the late afternoon. Lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km
range will be favorable for large hail with supercells, and
hailstones greater than 2 inches will be possible. In addition, a
tornado threat is expected to develop as low-level shear ramps up
during the late afternoon and early evening. Any supercell that can
form far enough away from other storms to maintain a relative long
life cycle will be favored to produce tornadoes. If any supercell
can become intense, then a strong tornado will be possible.
Otherwise, cells are forecast to congeal into a line and move
eastward across northwest Texas, west-central Oklahoma, eastern
Kansas and western Missouri during the evening. The stronger storms
within this line should be associated with severe wind gusts and
isolated large hail. A QLCS tornado threat will also be likely,
especially within the more intense bowing line segments.

Further south into southwest Texas, isolated supercells with large
hail are expected to develop to the east of a dryline. This threat
should persist into the early to mid evening. A few strong wind
gusts will also be possible.

...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over much of the
eastern U.S. today. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will be
located in the Ohio Valley from southern Indiana east-northeastward
into far southern Pennsylvania. Surface dewpoints in the upper 50s
and lower 60s F to the south of the front will contribute to weak
instability by early afternoon. Increasing low-level convergence
near the front and warming surface temperatures will result in
scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon. Several short line
segments are expected to form and move eastward across the Ohio
Valley into the central Appalachians. 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35
knot range and steep low-level lapse rates will support isolated
severe storms with potential for damaging wind gusts. A low-end
tornado threat will also be possible.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 04/01/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011253
SWODY1
SPC AC 011251

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST TEXAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few
tornadoes are likely across the southern and central Plains this
afternoon and evening. Strong to severe storms are also possible
from parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
Early morning radar and satellite imagery shows a cluster of
thunderstorms moving through central MO, just to the north and east
of a surface low over far southwest MO. Surface analysis shows a
cold front extending from this low northeastward across the OH
Valley and Northeast to another low over NH. A stationary boundary
also extends southwestward from the southwest MO low across central
and southwest OK, and northwest TX to another low over the Permian
Basin. Thunderstorms are expected to focus on each of these
boundaries today, particularly from the middle OH Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic and over large portion of the central/southern Plains
and Mid MS Valley. Severe thunderstorms are possible across these
regions as well, with the highest severe thunderstorm coverage
expected from northwest TX through western OK into south-central KS.

...Central/Southern Plains...
Low-level moisture advection is anticipated across the southern
Plains today as the shortwave trough currently moving through the
southern Great Basin continues quickly eastward, reaching the
central Plains by early tomorrow. General expectation is for the
stationary boundary mentioned in the synopsis to push north as warm
front and for mid 60s dewpoints to cover much of OK by the late
afternoon. This increasing low-level moisture beneath steep lapse
rates (over 7 to 7.5 deg C per 12Z soundings and recent
mesoanalysis) will support moderate to strong buoyancy from
southwest TX into much of central and western OK. Height falls
attendant to the approaching shortwave will begin spreading over
this destabilizing airmass by the early afternoon, combining with
low-level convergence along the front and dryline to support
convective initiation between 21Z and 00Z.

Given the expectation that convective inhibition will be limited, if
present at all, widespread development is anticipated from western
OK into southwest TX. Kinematic profiles support supercells, but the
persistent ascent and extensive nature of the convective initiation
suggest that a discrete convective mode will be difficult to
maintain and a quick transition to a convective line appears
probable. As such, strong gusts appear to be the primary severe
risk. Even so, steep lapse rates should still support large hail,
even within the convective line. Very large hail (i.e. 2"+ in
diameter) is possible if a discrete mode can be maintained. A
discrete mode could also increase the tornado potential, but higher probabilities (i.e. 10%) were not introduced given the likely storm interactions and expected quick convective evolution into a line.
Some tornado risk will still be present within the line,
particularly during the 00-04Z period as low-level hodographs
lengthen amid a strengthening low-level jet.

This strengthening low-level jet is also expected to support a
secondary area of thunderstorm development from northeast
OK/southeast KS into central/southern MO during the late afternoon.
Large hail (with some isolated instances of hail around 2") is the
primary risk with these storms, most likely early in their
convective cycles.

...Ohio Valley into Mid-Atlantic...
Ongoing cluster over MO will gradually move eastward with time, with
the airmass south of the front mentioned in the synopsis
destabilizing throughout the day. This destabilization coupled with
moderate westerly flow aloft could lead to a reintensification of
this cluster and/or new development ahead of it. Vertical shear will
be modest but still sufficient for bowing line segments capable of
damaging gusts. Greatest storm coverage (and attendant greatest
severe potential) is expected over the middle Ohio Valley and the
Mid-Atlantic States.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 04/01/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011615
SWODY1
SPC AC 011613

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST TEXAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few
tornadoes are likely across the southern and central Plains this
afternoon and evening. Strong to severe storms are also possible
from parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic.

...OK/TX...
Water vapor imagery shows a potent shortwave trough moving across
northern AZ. This feature will approach the surface dryline over
west TX late this afternoon and evening, resulting in rapid and
widespread thunderstorm development from the eastern TX Panhandle
into western OK. Activity will build eastward through the evening
with a risk of very large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes.

...Northern OK/KS/Southwest MO...
Latest surface analysis shows a weak boundary extending from
southwest OK into southeast KS. This boundary will lift/mix
northward today, resulting in rapid moistening/destabilization of
the air mass. Most CAM solutions suggest the potential for the
development of a few evening supercells in vicinity of this
retreating boundary over north-central OK into southeast KS. Very
large hail and a few tornadoes are possible.

...OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic...
A well-defined surface boundary currently extends from southern OH
into southern PA, with widespread clouds to the north and strong
heating to the south. This strengthening baroclinic zone will
provide the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon and
early evening. A cluster of thunderstorms is forecast by several
CAM solutions to form over northeast KY/southern OH and track
eastward through the afternoon, posing a risk of damaging wind
gusts. Other more isolated strong storms are possible from
southeast PA into the warm/moist air mass over parts of MD/VA, with
a similar risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells.

..Hart/Wendt.. 04/01/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011959
SWODY1
SPC AC 011957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few
tornadoes are likely across the southern and central Plains this
afternoon and evening. Strong to severe storms are also possible
from parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic.

...20z Update OK/KS/MO...
Observational trends and model guidance continue to show rapid
destabilization taking place this afternoon as a warm front
gradually lifts northward across OK into southeastern KS and
southwestern MO. Large-scale ascent is forecast to increase rapidly
tonight as the primary upper trough over the Four Corners ejects
eastward, aiding in storm development along a broad area of the
front. Semi-discrete supercells and clusters are possible tonight
before upscale growth takes place after 00z. The strong synoptic
ascent should favor a rapid strengthening of low-level flow and
shear. This would support a risk for damaging gusts and some
tornadoes with remaining supercells or linear segments. Expand the
5% tornado and 15% wind areas farther east into MO where CAM
guidance shows storm persisting overnight.

Farther southwest, no significant changes were made to the prior
outlook. Scattered semi-discrete thunderstorm development remains
likely along the dryline/front intersection across west/southwestern
OK into western north TX this afternoon amid filtered heating of a
moistening air mass. Initial supercells will pose risk for large
hail and a couple tornadoes. The damaging wind threat (and possible
some QLCS tornado risk) will likely increase after dark as storms
congeal and spread northeastward beneath an intensifying 40-50 kt
low-level jet.

...OH Valley and Mid Atlantic...
Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and expected to
gradually increase in coverage through this evening along a frontal
zone across the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic. South of the front,
moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear will support some storm
organization with supercells or organized clusters from northeast KY
into southern OH and parts of WV/VA. Damaging gusts, and perhaps
some hail are possible with the stronger storms.

..Lyons.. 04/01/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026/

...OK/TX...
Water vapor imagery shows a potent shortwave trough moving across
northern AZ. This feature will approach the surface dryline over
west TX late this afternoon and evening, resulting in rapid and
widespread thunderstorm development from the eastern TX Panhandle
into western OK. Activity will build eastward through the evening
with a risk of very large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes.

...Northern OK/KS/Southwest MO...
Latest surface analysis shows a weak boundary extending from
southwest OK into southeast KS. This boundary will lift/mix
northward today, resulting in rapid moistening/destabilization of
the air mass. Most CAM solutions suggest the potential for the
development of a few evening supercells in vicinity of this
retreating boundary over north-central OK into southeast KS. Very
large hail and a few tornadoes are possible.

...OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic...
A well-defined surface boundary currently extends from southern OH
into southern PA, with widespread clouds to the north and strong
heating to the south. This strengthening baroclinic zone will
provide the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon and
early evening. A cluster of thunderstorms is forecast by several
CAM solutions to form over northeast KY/southern OH and track
eastward through the afternoon, posing a risk of damaging wind
gusts. Other more isolated strong storms are possible from
southeast PA into the warm/moist air mass over parts of MD/VA, with
a similar risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 020102
SWODY1
SPC AC 020100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail and
tornado potential will continue across the southern and central
Plains this evening and overnight. Strong storms are also possible
from parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic.

... 01Z Update ...

Severe thunderstorms with a history of damaging winds are currently
located across southwest Oklahoma. This complex will continue to
move northeast this evening, aided by mesoscale circulations
associated with a mesolow/MCV across western Oklahoma. As the
low-level jet increases this evening, an increase in tornado
potential will be possible across portions of Tornado Watch #86. See
Mesoscale Discussion #325 for more information.

Elsewhere, clusters of strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be
possible across southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri along a
surface boundary. Although deep-layer shear is somewhat less than
areas to the south and west, the presence of a low-level boundary,
an increasing low-level jet, and sufficient low-level instability
will continue to support some severe potential -- including
tornadoes -- for several more hours.

A hail and wind threat will also persist for several more hours
across southwest Texas where MUCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg
and deep-layer shear around 40 knots will support at least some
supercell threat.

..Marsh.. 04/02/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 020604
SWODY1
SPC AC 020602

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes appear
probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and
southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Additionally, damaging
thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa northeast into
Michigan.

... Overview ...

A negatively tilted trough will quickly lift northward through the
Plains and across the Great Lakes today and tonight. As this occurs,
a modest surface low will race northeast from north-central Kansas
this morning into Ontario by Friday morning. Attendant to this
surface low, a west-east oriented warm front will lift northward
across the Great Lakes during the day and a north-south cold front
will push east across the region during the late afternoon and
overnight.

... Eastern Iowa east-north into Michigan ...

A strong low-level jet at the start of the forecast period will
support widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area. The
low-level jet will strengthen through the morning as the midlevel
trough approaches and the H850 low intensifies. This will maintain
showers and thunderstorms through at least midday across Iowa and
Illinois before the H850 low moves far enough north and east for the
core of the low-level jet to focus farther east, taking the
precipitation with it.

In the wake of the morning/early afternoon convection, a narrow
corridor of destabilization should occur across central/eastern Iowa
and northwest Illinois to the south of the warm front and east of
the cold front. Scattered supercells are expected to develop along
the cold front during the afternoon where MUCAPE in excess of 1000
J/kg and deep-layer shear on the order of 45 knots exists. Strong
low-level kinematic fields will support a tornado and wind threat
with these initial storms, and, despite modest lapse-rates, the
presence of supercells within a modestly unstable environment will
support some hail potential.

By late afternoon/early evening these supercells should move into a
less stable environment characterized by decreasing CAPE but
increasing low-level shear. Current expectation is that the initial
discrete storms will eventually grow upscale into one or more linear
segments, along the advancing cold front. Despite the decreasing
instability, the strength of the low-level wind field will support a
continued wind threat eastward into Lower Michigan during the
evening and overnight hours.

... Northeast Arkansas, Southeast Missouri, western Tennessee, and
western Kentucky ...

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon along
and ahead of the surface cold front, where modest warm-air advection
is forecast to persist through the day. Despite weakening kinematic
fields, deep-layer shear on the order of 30 knots and MUCAPE between
1000-2000 J/kg will support at least some severe potential --
including a tornado or two -- during the late afternoon and early
evening.

..Marsh/Chalmers.. 04/02/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021257
SWODY1
SPC AC 021256

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN
IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes appear
probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and
southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Additionally, damaging
thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa northeast into
Michigan.

...Synopsis...
Early morning satellite and radar imagery show an extensive warm
conveyor, with embedded showers and thunderstorms, extending from
the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest, with some westward
branching noted over the Mid MO Valley. This warm conveyor is
associated with shortwave trough currently progressing through the
central Plains. Recent surface analysis places a surface low just
ahead of this wave over central KS, with a warm front extending
eastward from the low into the middle OH Valley and a dryline
extending south-southwestward from this low through the TX Trans
Pecos.

Expectation is for this shortwave to eject quickly northeastward
throughout the day, maintaining a negative tilt as it progresses
through the Mid MO Valley and Upper Midwest before ending the period
over northeastern Ontario. The associated surface low will move
quickly northeastward as well, progressing across southern and
eastern IA and southern WI before occluding over upper MI tonight.
Warm front attendant to this low will move northward as well,
bringing low 60s dewpoints into eastern IA, northern IL, and
southern WI before a cold front moves through. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the cold front over
much of the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys, with the highest potential
for severe thunderstorms from eastern Iowa, northern IL, and far
southern WI.

...Northern MO/Southern IA across southern WI/northern IL into Lower
MI...
Extensive area of showers and thunderstorms is currently ongoing
from central TX into the Upper Midwest, within the warm conveyor
mentioned in the synopsis. Moderate to strong southerly low-level
flow exists within this warm sector. Progression of the negatively
tilted shortwave and associated surface low mentioned in the
synopsis will lead to a strengthening of this low-level flow, with
attendant moisture advection into more of the Mid MS Valley. Some
eastward displacement of the warm conveyor is anticipated, leaving
the potential for airmass destabilization ahead of the surface low
and cold front. This is supported by most of the guidance, which
depicts a corridor of surface-based buoyancy and little to no
convective inhibition from eastern IA/northern IL into central/east
TX by the early afternoon.

Best forcing for ascent within this corridor will be over the Upper
Midwest and Mid MS Valley, particularly from southern/eastern IA
into northern IL/southern WI, as both the shortwave and surface low
move through the region. The strongest vertical shear will be over
this region as well, supporting the potential for supercells with
the initial, more cellular development. Very strong low-level shear
supports a heightened tornado potential with any supercells,
including the possibility of strong (EF2+) tornadoes. Given the
linear forcing along the approaching cold front, a transition to a
more linear storm mode is anticipated, although there is some
uncertainty to how fast this transition occurs. The strength of the
low-level flow supports a continued risk for tornadoes within any
convective lines, but the primary hazard once any lines develop will
become strong gusts. Kinematic fields are strong enough to support
60 to 80 mph gusts. Additionally, despite weakening buoyancy, strong
ascent and robust kinematic fields support the potential for
damaging gusts across much of Lower MI later tonight.

...Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys into the Mid-South...
As previously mentioned, showers and thunderstorms are currently
ongoing from central TX into the Upper Midwest, within the extensive
warm conveyor mentioned in the synopsis. There is some potential for reintensification of these showers and thunderstorms late this
afternoon/early evening from central/eastern IL into the northeast
AR/MO Bootheel, supported my modest destabilization and increasing
ascent. Storm structures will likely be somewhat shallow, but strong
flow will still support the potential for damaging gusts within any
bowing line segments. A brief tornado is possible as well.

Airmass destabilization is also anticipated west of this warm
conveyor, but ahead of the cold front, from central IL into
central/southern MO and northern AR. Much of this area will be
displaced south and west of the departing shortwave trough and
surface low, limiting large-scale ascent. However, some modest
ascent is possible along a weak lagging upper trough, which could be
enough to promote additional development. If updrafts can be
maintained, parameters support the potential for strong to severe
storms capable. Large hail is the primary risk, but a
low-probability tornado risk exists as well.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 04/02/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021615
SWODY1
SPC AC 021613

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes appear
probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and
southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Additionally, damaging
thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa northeast into
Michigan.

...IA/IL/MO/WI...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a strong shortwave trough over
northeast KS, with an associated mid-level jet and dry-slot rotating
around the base of the trough into western MO. A deep surface low
currently south of OMA will track northeastward across IA this
afternoon, with a tight gradient of low-level moisture and
instability along the track of the low. Very strong low-level shear
and sufficient CAPE in the warm sector will pose a risk of
fast-moving supercells capable of damaging winds, tornadoes
(possibly strong), and hail. The area of greatest concern is over
eastern IA into northern IL and far southern WI. Perhaps the
biggest forecast uncertainty is the widespread cloud cover and
limited diurnal destabilization, but the approaching dry slot may
compensate by mid-afternoon and allow a period of afternoon heating.

The coverage of storms with southward extent is uncertain across
eastern MO and central/southern IL. Recent CAM solutions continue
to show only widely scattered discrete development across this
corridor. However, given the forecast of strong low-level shear and
favorable synoptic forcing, those storms that do form would pose a
risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

...Eastern IL/IN/Lower MI...
Strong southerly low-level winds will maintain 60s dewpoints across
eastern IL/western IN, and result in the warm front lifting
northward into southern Lower MI by this evening. This will provide
a favorable environment for a few severe storms capable of damaging
winds and perhaps a few tornadoes.

..Hart/Kerr.. 04/02/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021957
SWODY1
SPC AC 021956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes remain
probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and
southern Wisconsin this afternoon and evening. Additionally,
damaging thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa
northeast into Michigan.

...20z Update IA, IL, MO and southern WI...
Rapid air mass modification is underway to the south of a warm front
lifting northward across the western Great Lakes and upper Midwest.
Clearing beneath the advancing mid-level dry slot may allow
temperatures to warm into the low 70s, with surface dewpoints near
60 F. This will support weak buoyancy amid very strong shear
profiles (0-1 km SRH >300 m2/s2) from observed VADs and regional
RAOBs.

Scattered thunderstorms and supercells ongoing over northern MO and
southern IA should mature and present a severe hazard over much of
the ENH area as they spread northeastward through this evening. A
few tornadoes (some strong and fast moving), hail and damaging gusts
are expected. Additional storms may develop within the warm conveyor
belt farther east across IL this afternoon/evening. Upscale growth
into one or more clusters with damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes
is the primary concern.

The main change with the 20z update was to trim thunderstorm and
severe probabilities to the west of the advancing cold front. See
the prior discussion for more information.

..Lyons.. 04/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026/

...IA/IL/MO/WI...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a strong shortwave trough over
northeast KS, with an associated mid-level jet and dry-slot rotating
around the base of the trough into western MO. A deep surface low
currently south of OMA will track northeastward across IA this
afternoon, with a tight gradient of low-level moisture and
instability along the track of the low. Very strong low-level shear
and sufficient CAPE in the warm sector will pose a risk of
fast-moving supercells capable of damaging winds, tornadoes
(possibly strong), and hail. The area of greatest concern is over
eastern IA into northern IL and far southern WI. Perhaps the
biggest forecast uncertainty is the widespread cloud cover and
limited diurnal destabilization, but the approaching dry slot may
compensate by mid-afternoon and allow a period of afternoon heating.

The coverage of storms with southward extent is uncertain across
eastern MO and central/southern IL. Recent CAM solutions continue
to show only widely scattered discrete development across this
corridor. However, given the forecast of strong low-level shear and
favorable synoptic forcing, those storms that do form would pose a
risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

...Eastern IL/IN/Lower MI...
Strong southerly low-level winds will maintain 60s dewpoints across
eastern IL/western IN, and result in the warm front lifting
northward into southern Lower MI by this evening. This will provide
a favorable environment for a few severe storms capable of damaging
winds and perhaps a few tornadoes.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 030102
SWODY1
SPC AC 030101

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Ongoing severe thunderstorms across the Great Lakes this evening
will remain capable of producing damaging thunderstorm winds, a
couple of tornadoes, and some hail into the overnight hours.

... 01Z Update ...

A vigorous, negatively tilted trough continues to lift northeast
across the Upper Great Lakes this evening. Ahead of this wave,
strong ascent is supporting multiple clusters/bands of severe
convection across the Great Lakes -- one currently across Indiana
and Michigan within the cyclone's warm-conveyor belt and another
across Illinois and Wisconsin along the combined Pacific front and
dryline.

Despite the loss of diurnal heating, strong large-scale ascent and
low-level convergence along the front/dryline will support
thunderstorms into the overnight. Although the overall intensity of
the thunderstorms will gradually decrease with time, the strength of
the low-level wind fields will support a continued wind threat into
Lower Michigan overnight, with a modest QLCS-type tornado threat.

..Marsh.. 04/03/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 030558
SWODY1
SPC AC 030557

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI AN SOUTHERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Storms are expected to evolve into an extensive line by Friday
evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary
threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes and
isolated very large hail will be possible from northern Missouri
into southern Iowa with any sustained supercells.

A midlevel trough, emanating from a previous TPV, will move across
the northern US today and tonight. This feature will maintain a
modest surface cyclone that will progress northeastward from central
Kansas to southern Wisconsin by Saturday morning. As the surface low
lifts northeast, a west-east orientate warm front will push
northward toward Lower Michigan.

... Northern Missouri and Southern Iowa ...

As the surface cyclone lifts northeast in response to increasing
pressure falls in advance of the midlevel trough, southerly winds
will draw low-level moisture northward, with low-to-mid 60Fs
dewpoints possible along and south of the aforementioned warm front.
Residual steep mid-level lapse rates and modest insolation will
contribute to MLCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg (and MUCAPE values
approach 3000 J/kg). Despite the low-level jet weakening through the
day, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for supercells along and
south of the warm front and east of the Pacific cold front/dryline.
However, given persistent warm-air advection/isentropic ascent
associated with the advancing warm front, concerns abound regarding
the number of storms, storm interactions, and an overall messy storm
mode evolution.

If a more discrete mode emerges, the overall kinematic wind field
would support sustained supercells and an increased tornado threat
along both the Pacific Front/dryline and the northward moving warm
front. Very large hail would also be possible. If a more linear mode
emerges, the primary severe hazard would focus more on strong winds
and a QLCS tornado threat. Of note, even with a more linear mode,
uncertainty in the coverage of potential strong convective winds is
low owing to a weakening low-level jet and storm interactions. The
Level 3/Enhanced was kept at this time, but the need for a
wind-driven Level 3/Enhanced will be revisited in subsequent
forecasts.

... Central Illinois east into Ohio and north into Lower Michigan
...

Thunderstorms will be possible along the northward moving warm front
during the afternoon on Friday. Although there is uncertainty
regarding the number/coverage of storms, the overall thermodynamic
and kinematic fields would support the potential for hail and wind
along and north of the warm front. Across the western portions of
this area, a brief tornado threat would exist as any discrete
supercells traverse through the warm frontal zone.

... Southeast Kansas/Southwest Missouri southwest toward Northwest
Texas...

Thunderstorms will develop southward from northern Missouri into
Oklahoma during the afternoon as the Pacific cold front/dryline
pushes east into an increasingly unstable airmass. At the same time,
additional thunderstorms are likely to develop across Northwest
Texas and southwest Oklahoma in association with a subtle
perturbation within the subtropical jet. Forecast wind fields
indicate low-level flow will be weaker here than areas farther north
and east, and have pronounced weakness in the 3-6 km AGL range. The
combination of this wind field and the widespread nature of the
convection would lend itself to large hail and damaging winds as the
main severe hazards, although a tornado cannot be ruled out with any
discrete storm or along the leading edge of any organized linear
segments.

... Southwest Texas ...

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon/evening
along the higher terrain and a surface dryline. Wind fields will
support supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds. However uncertainty regarding overall storm coverage
precludes a categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk.

..Marsh/Chalmers.. 04/03/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031242
SWODY1
SPC AC 031240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA INTO WEST/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes and isolated very large hail are possible late this
afternoon and evening across northern Missouri into southern Iowa
and north-central Illinois with any sustained supercells that
develop. Storms are otherwise expected to evolve into an extensive
line by Friday evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas,
with the primary threats of large hail and damaging winds.

...Northern Missouri/southern Iowa/north-central Illinois...
The shortwave trough emerging from the north-central High Plains
this morning will spread east-northeastward toward the Upper Midwest
through early Saturday. This will be accompanied by a strengthening
(70+ kt) belt of cyclonically curved mid/high-level westerlies. A
surface low across the south-central Plains will transition
northeastward toward the Iowa/Illinois border vicinity tonight,
while a warm front shifts northward from northern Missouri into Iowa
and across northern portions of Illinois/Indiana, where low/middle
60s F dewpoints will become common across the Midwest near and south
of the warm front.

Within the warm sector, residually steep mid-level lapse rates and
modest insolation will contribute to MLCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg
(and MUCAPE values approach 3000 J/kg). Deep-layer shear will be
sufficient for supercells along and south of the warm front and east
of the Pacific cold front/dryline. While the likelihood/extent of
semi-discrete supercellular development remains a bit uncertain, the
main potential for such will increase during the afternoon near the
triple point around the Kansas/Missouri/Iowa border vicinity and
eastward, potentially as far east into western/north-central
Illinois in vicinity of the northward-shifting warm front.
Semi-discrete development would offer tornado/very large hail
potential, as well as a possible multi-round scenario of severe
storms in some of this corridor via a more prevalent line of storms
during the evening, with a damaging wind risk and some continued
tornado potential as the low-level restrengthens.

...Northern Indiana to western portions of Pennsylvania/New York...
Relatively strong westerlies atop the frontal zone, which will be
more southeast-progressive as a cold front with eastward extent,
will support at least isolated severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon into evening, including a few supercells regionally.

...Southeast Kansas/Southwest Missouri to Northwest Texas...
Thunderstorms will develop southward from northern Missouri into
Oklahoma during the afternoon as the Pacific cold front/dryline
advances southeastward into an increasingly unstable airmass. At the
same time, additional thunderstorms are likely to develop across
Northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma in association with a subtle perturbation within the subtropical jet. Forecast wind fields
indicate low-level flow will be weaker here than areas farther north
and east. The combination of this wind field and the widespread
nature of the convection would lend itself to large hail and
damaging winds as the main severe hazards, although a tornado could
occur with any discrete storm or along the leading edge of any
organized linear segments.

...Southwest Texas...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected by late afternoon and early
evening in vicinity of the dry line and near some of the
mountains/higher terrain. Wind fields will support supercells
capable of producing large hail and localized severe-caliber winds.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/03/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031608
SWODY1
SPC AC 031606

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS....

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected to evolve into an extensive line this
evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary
threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes are also
possible in any supercells that can form ahead of the line over
parts of Iowa, Missouri, and central Illinois.

...MO/IA/IL...
Latest surface analysis shows a low over northeast KS. This low
will track northeastward across southern IA today, with the
associated warm front lifting northward into northern IL. The air
mass in the warm sector of the low will be relatively moist and
unstable with dewpoints in the lower 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values
of 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
surface low in IA, and more widely scattered storms eastward along
the warm front. A few supercells are possible across this region,
with a concern for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds in the
most intense cells.

...MO/KS/OK/TX...
An extensive line of thunderstorms is expected to form along the
cold front this afternoon from western MO into southeast KS and much
of OK. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE will be present ahead of
the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for
rotating/bowing storm structures. Large hail and damaging winds
appear to be the main concern, but a tornado or two are also
possible.

..Hart/Wendt.. 04/03/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031955
SWODY1
SPC AC 031954

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS....

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected to evolve into an extensive line this
evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary
threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes are also
possible in any supercells that can form ahead of the line over
parts of Iowa, Missouri, and central Illinois.

...20z update KS, MO IA and IL...
Scattered thunderstorm development was ongoing this afternoon ahead
of a weak surface low an associated cold front over the MO Valley.
To the east, a broad and unstable warm sector exists south of a quasi-stationary front extending into eastern MO and IL. Moderate
buoyancy and deep-layer shear will support a mix of supercells.
Damaging winds and hail remain the most likely near the cold front
as it moves eastward with a linear storm modes. A few tornadoes are
also possible with more discrete cells and backed surface winds
along the warm front farther east. The primary update to the
forecast was to remove thunder and severe probabilities behind the
cold front, otherwise the severe risk remains as is.

...Southern KS, OK and into TX...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain likely this afternoon and
evening along the advancing cold front from southern KS, across much
of OK and ahead of a dryline into west-central TX. South of the
primary upper trough and stronger flow aloft, overall forcing will
be weaker. Still, forecast soundings and observation trends show
moderate destabilization and sufficient deep-layer shear for
supercells and organized clusters/line segments. Hail (some 2+ in)
is possible with initial supercells before upscale growth is
expected to take place with the surging cold front.

A locally more favorable zone for large hail, damaging gusts and a
tornado or two may develop across parts of central and southern OK
if semi discrete supercells or stronger bowing structures can become organized/maintained this afternoon/evening.

...OH Valley...
A moist and unstable air mass will support scattered thunderstorms
across the OH valley this afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts are
possible with multi-cell storms/clusters amid modest vertical shear.
Storms should weaken this evening with the loss of diurnal heating.

..Lyons.. 04/03/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026/

...MO/IA/IL...
Latest surface analysis shows a low over northeast KS. This low
will track northeastward across southern IA today, with the
associated warm front lifting northward into northern IL. The air
mass in the warm sector of the low will be relatively moist and
unstable with dewpoints in the lower 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values
of 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
surface low in IA, and more widely scattered storms eastward along
the warm front. A few supercells are possible across this region,
with a concern for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds in the
most intense cells.

...MO/KS/OK/TX...
An extensive line of thunderstorms is expected to form along the
cold front this afternoon from western MO into southeast KS and much
of OK. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE will be present ahead of
the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for
rotating/bowing storm structures. Large hail and damaging winds
appear to be the main concern, but a tornado or two are also
possible.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 040058
SWODY1
SPC AC 040056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST
TEXAS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA AND EAST INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms continue to evolve into an extensive line this evening
from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Damaging winds, hail, and
a couple of tornadoes remain possible through the overnight.

... 01Z Update ...

Thunderstorms continue to develop along and ahead of an advancing
cold front this evening. These storms should continue to increase in
number, growing upscale into an extensive linear MCS from Northwest
Texas northeastward into southern Iowa. Despite nocturnal
stabilization of the boundary layer, forcing along the cold front,
MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg, and sufficient vertical shear should
support a continued hail and wind threat into the overnight hours,
especially across the southern portion of this area where updrafts
appear to be more robust than areas farther north. Given the moist
low-levels and a modest uptick in the low-level jet, a couple of
tornadoes may still occur as well.

Additional thunderstorms have developed eastward along the warm
front draped across southern Iowa east across Illinois, Indiana,
Ohio, and Pennsylvania. MUCAPE and vertical shear decrease with
eastward extent along the warm front, organized thunderstorms within
the frontal zone should support an localized hail and wind threat
for a few more hours. A tornado or two could also be realized with
any discrete/semi-discrete cell that can increase its resonance time
in the frontal zone, especially across central Illinois where better instability and vertical shear exist.

..Marsh.. 04/04/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 040601
SWODY1
SPC AC 040559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...MUCH OF OHIO...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NEW YORK....

...SUMMARY...
Strong-to-severe storms will be possible from eastern Texas
northeastward toward the Lower Great Lakes. Sporadic damaging winds
will be the most likely severe hazard throughout this corridor, with
the greatest likelihood across the Lower Great Lakes.

... Synopsis ...

A midlevel trough is forecast to move from the northern Plains into
Ontario on Saturday As this happens, a surface low should lift
northward from northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin into Ontario as
well and a surface cold front will accelerate eastward across the
Great Lakes and be approaching the East Coast by Sunday morning. To
the southwest, the cold front will not progress as quickly, but
should advance south and east through the day.

... Southeast Lower Michigan, Ohio, Western Pennsylvania, and
western New York ...

As the surface low lifts northward into Canada on Saturday, showers
and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along and ahead of the
trailing composite cold front/convective outflow. At the same time,
a surface warm front will lift slowly northward across Lower
Michigan. To the south of this front, and ahead of the cold
front/outflow, a moist airmass, characterized by low-to-mid 60Fs
dewpoints should be in place. Despite the strongest large-scale
ascent being displaced to the north and west of the warm sector and
weak midlevel lapse rates atop the warm sector, pockets of
insolation should be sufficient to destabilize the environment
enough to support some convective redevelopment along and ahead of
the composite outflow/cold front. Modest instability will combine
with seasonably strong low-level wind fields to support a convective
wind threat and an isolated tornado threat along the leading edge of
any sustained linear segments.

... Tennessee Valley southwest to eastern Texas ...

Widespread thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across the
western portions of this area at the start of the forecast period.
These thunderstorms will likely be driven by convergence along the east/southeast moving composite cold front/convective outflow
boundary, with the exact western edge of any severe threat
demarcated by where this boundary is located at the start of the
forecast period. Seasonably high precipitable water values should
support some threat for strong wind gusts in the most intense
thunderstorm cores. These thunderstorms are expected to continue
through the day, despite weakening large-scale ascent and vertical
wind shear as the midlevel low pulls farther away. Given the
seasonably high precipitable water values, modest insolation should
support MUCAPE values between 500 and 1000 J/kg (perhaps as high as
1500 J/kg) across portions of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.
This may support a re-intensification of ongoing convection which
would be capable of sporadic damaging downbursts

..Marsh/Chalmers.. 04/04/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041242
SWODY1
SPC AC 041240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of damaging winds and a tornado risk are
expected across parts of the Lower Great Lakes and middle/upper Ohio
River Valley, mainly this afternoon through early evening. Other
more isolated severe storms may occur across the Tennessee Valley,
Lower Mississippi Valley, and eastern part of Texas.

...Ohio/Eastern Indiana/Lower Michigan to Pennsylvania/New York...
A shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest early today will continue northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes through tonight.
Cyclonically influenced strengthening deep-layer southwesterlies
(50+ kt 700 mb) will overspread Indiana/Michigan toward the Lower
Great Lakes, atop a steadily moistening/heating warm-sector boundary
layer along and north of the Ohio River.

This will be ahead of a surface low and cold front, that is
considerably augmented by generally weakening thunderstorms and
prevalent lingering clouds/outflows through the pre-dawn hours.
These residual factors cast uncertainty regarding the magnitude of
today's overall potential, but a formidable flow field and
guidance-advertised heating/steady diurnal destabilization will
still be supportive of at least some severe potential regionally as
storms redevelop and intensify this afternoon. This includes
damaging wind potential, particularly given the magnitude of low/mid-tropospheric winds and boundary layer mixing, with some
tornado threat as well, mainly in vicinity of the triple
point/nearby warm front. Overall storm intensities should decrease
by mid/late evening, owing to nocturnal boundary-layer influences
and the primary upper-level system spreading away from the region.

...Tennessee Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley/Texas ...
While diminishing in intensity overnight, showers/thunderstorms
remain extensive and prevalent from the Mid-South/Ozarks
southwestward into North Texas, as a synoptic cold front otherwise
continues to progress southeastward across these regions. While
details are complexified by considerable cloud cover and lingering
storms, multiple corridors of reinvigorating storms should
materialize this afternoon where more appreciable cloud
breaks/heating occur. Downbursts/locally damaging winds will be the
primary severe hazard, but this is currently expected to be on a
relatively isolated/episodic basis.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/04/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041627
SWODY1
SPC AC 041625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging winds
and perhaps a tornado or two appear possible across parts of the
Lower Great Lakes and middle/upper Ohio River Valley region this
afternoon through early evening. Other more isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the the Tennessee
Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley, and central/east/south Texas.

...Midwest/Lower Michigan to Pennsylvania and Western New York...
An upper trough over the Upper Midwest late this morning will
continue moving northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes through
tonight. Strengthening deep-layer southwesterlies (with 50+ kt
present at 700 mb) will overspread IN/MI toward the Lower Great
Lakes atop a gradually moistening/heating boundary layer along and
north of the Ohio River.

This will occur ahead of a surface low over WI/MI and convectively reinforced/southeastward-developing cold front that will impact
parts of the Midwest/OH Valley this afternoon. Recent visible
satellite trends showing clearing across much of OH into northwest
PA suggest sufficient heating and modest diurnal destabilization
will support at least some severe potential regionally as
thunderstorms redevelop and intensify this afternoon along/ahead of
the cold front. Given steepening low-lapse rates and enhanced
low/mid-level southwesterly flow, scattered severe/damaging winds
should be the main threat. But, there may also be some potential for
a tornado or two as well, mainly in vicinity of the triple
point/nearby warm front that will extend eastward into central PA.
Overall updraft intensities should decrease by mid to late evening,
owing to stabilizing/nocturnal boundary-layer influences, and the
primary upper trough/low moving northeastward away from the region.

...Tennessee Valley into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Texas...
Showers and occasional thunderstorms remain extensive this morning
from the Mid-South southwestward into northeast TX, as a surface
cold front continues to progress southeastward across these areas.
Even with considerable cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft ahead
of this ongoing activity, multiple corridors of reinvigorated
convective clusters should develop this afternoon where some cloud breaks/filtered heating can occur. Downbursts with locally damaging
winds should be the primary severe hazard, but this threat is
expected to remain relatively isolated given lessening deep-layer
shear with southward extent into the lower MS Valley/TX.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/04/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 042002
SWODY1
SPC AC 042000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW
YORK STATE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging winds
and perhaps a tornado or two remain possible across parts of the
Lower Great Lakes and middle/upper Ohio River Valley region this
afternoon through early evening. Other more isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the the Tennessee
Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley, and central/east/south Texas.

...20z Update Great Lakes Region...
A band of thunderstorms ahead of the eastward progressing cold front
will continue across northern OH this afternoon before moving into
western PA and southwest NY this evening. Diurnal steepening of
low-level lapse rates amid fairly strong, but unidirectional flow
aloft will continue to support a risk for damaging gusts. A brief
tornado also remains possible with any rotating elements, especially
near the southern shores of Lake Erie near the stalled warm
front/lake boundary. Have trimmed severe and thunder probabilities
behind the front over IN where the risk has decreased.

...TN Valley to the Southeast and South TX...
Ahead of the southern portions of the cold front, a warm, moist, and
unstable air mass will support widespread thunderstorm activity from
parts of the TN Valley, Southeast and into South TX. In the absence
of steep mid-level lapse rates and stronger vertical shear
(especially with southward extent), storm organization should be
transient and limited. Still, the moist environment and some veering
winds the lowest few km could support an occasional stronger or
briefly rotating storm. Any clustering could support occasional
damaging gusts or small hail with stronger updrafts near the front.
The outlook remains valid with only minor adjustments to the western
extent of thunder and severe probabilities.

..Lyons.. 04/04/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026/

...Midwest/Lower Michigan to Pennsylvania and Western New York...
An upper trough over the Upper Midwest late this morning will
continue moving northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes through
tonight. Strengthening deep-layer southwesterlies (with 50+ kt
present at 700 mb) will overspread IN/MI toward the Lower Great
Lakes atop a gradually moistening/heating boundary layer along and
north of the Ohio River.

This will occur ahead of a surface low over WI/MI and convectively reinforced/southeastward-developing cold front that will impact
parts of the Midwest/OH Valley this afternoon. Recent visible
satellite trends showing clearing across much of OH into northwest
PA suggest sufficient heating and modest diurnal destabilization
will support at least some severe potential regionally as
thunderstorms redevelop and intensify this afternoon along/ahead of
the cold front. Given steepening low-lapse rates and enhanced
low/mid-level southwesterly flow, scattered severe/damaging winds
should be the main threat. But, there may also be some potential for
a tornado or two as well, mainly in vicinity of the triple
point/nearby warm front that will extend eastward into central PA.
Overall updraft intensities should decrease by mid to late evening,
owing to stabilizing/nocturnal boundary-layer influences, and the
primary upper trough/low moving northeastward away from the region.

...Tennessee Valley into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Texas...
Showers and occasional thunderstorms remain extensive this morning
from the Mid-South southwestward into northeast TX, as a surface
cold front continues to progress southeastward across these areas.
Even with considerable cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft ahead
of this ongoing activity, multiple corridors of reinvigorated
convective clusters should develop this afternoon where some cloud breaks/filtered heating can occur. Downbursts with locally damaging
winds should be the primary severe hazard, but this threat is
expected to remain relatively isolated given lessening deep-layer
shear with southward extent into the lower MS Valley/TX.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 050101
SWODY1
SPC AC 050059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AND FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of damaging gusts remain possible across the northern
Appalachians this evening, and an instance or two of hail/wind may
accompany one of the stronger storms in Deep South Texas.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough continues to progress eastward over
the Great Lakes, with surface lee troughing prevalent over the
Appalachians and points east. A cold front continues to sweep
eastward across the OH/TN Valleys into southern TX, preceded by
enough buoyancy to support mainly general thunderstorms. A couple of
stronger thunderstorms may still occur over the northern
Appalachians and far southern TX.

...PA into the southern Great Lakes...
Ahead of the surface cold front, scant buoyancy (e.g. a few hundred
J/kg MLCAPE) remains in place per regional 00Z observed soundings.
Most of the CAPE is constrained in the 850-600 mb layer, which may
support a few strong low topped cells within bands of convection,
aided by strong low-level shear, as shown by the soundings. 0-3 km
SRH remains in the 200-300 m2/s2 range. As such, while the severe
threat is expected to remain sparse at best given poor buoyancy, the
strong low-level shear suggests that an additional damaging gust
cannot be completely ruled out.

...Deep-South Texas...
Multicells continue to propagate southward ahead of a cold front,
where ample buoyancy remains in place. While vertical wind shear is
poor, 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE, driven by 70 F dewpoints beneath 7+ C/km
mid-level lapse rates (per the 00Z BRO observed sounding), indicates
the potential for a sparse severe hail/gust instance before storms
dissipate in the next few hours.

..Squitieri.. 04/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 050550
SWODY1
SPC AC 050548

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible
this afternoon afternoon from the eastern Carolinas to the
Mid-Atlantic region.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will impinge on the East Coast as upper ridging
builds over the Interior West today. This upper air pattern will
support a surface trough and accompanying cold front moving offshore
over the East Coast as surface high pressure becomes established to
the west of the Appalachians, over much of the CONUS. Low-level
moisture along the East Coast will promote thunderstorm potential
ahead of the cold front given associated deep-layer lifting. A few
strong thunderstorms are possible across the Carolinas into the
Mid-Atlantic, where deep-layer ascent and vertical wind shear will
be strongest.

...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic...
By late morning into early afternoon, breaks in the clouds from
central NC to the NJ shoreline will contribute to boundary layer
mixing, along with destabilization (given the presence of 60+ F
surface dewpoints). 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this
boundary layer will result in tall, thin CAPE profiles. A few
hundred J/kg MLCAPE may develop along the Mid-Atlantic shoreline,
with up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern Carolinas. As
the surface cold front approaches by early afternoon, a line of
storms should develop along the cold front. Modestly curved
low-level hodographs should support some organization of the squall
line, with a few damaging gusts possible during the afternoon.

..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051244
SWODY1
SPC AC 051242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this
afternoon across the eastern Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic region.

...Carolinas/Delmarva/Mid-Atlantic States...
Multiple subtle mid-level perturbations over the Midwest, within the
base of the broad upper trough centered over Canada/Great Lakes,
will progress east-northeastward with steady height falls and
strengthening flow aloft particularly for the Mid-Atlantic region
and Delmarva. Prevalent showers/some thunderstorms early today will
accompany an east/southeastward-moving cold front, but cloud breaks
should allow for pre-frontal heating particularly across the coastal
plain over the Carolinas and far southeast Virginia.

A few hundred J/kg MLCAPE may develop along the Mid-Atlantic
shoreline, with up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern
Carolinas. As the surface cold front approaches by early afternoon,
a line of storms should develop and intensify along the cold front.
Modestly curved low-level hodographs should support linearly
organizing clusters/bands of storms, with a few damaging wind gusts
possible during the afternoon.

...Upper Midwest...
While low-level moisture will be rather limited, thermodynamic
profiles may be sufficiently supportive of a few lightning flashes
late this afternoon and early evening across parts of southern Minnesota/northern Iowa into western Wisconsin in vicinity of a southeastward-spreading front. Gusty winds may also occur with this
convection in the presence of a well-mixed boundary layer and
strengthening northwesterly winds aloft.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051612
SWODY1
SPC AC 051610

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon
across the eastern Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region.

...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
Within the base of a broad upper trough centered over eastern Canada
and the Great Lakes, multiple subtle mid-level perturbations over
the Midwest will develop east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic
and Carolinas today. Ongoing showers will accompany an east/southeastward-moving surface cold front, but some cloud breaks
will allow for filtered pre-frontal heating, particularly across the
coastal plain over the eastern Carolinas and far southeast VA.

Up to 100-300 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across the coastal
Mid-Atlantic, with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern
Carolinas where greater heating should occur. A broken line of
low-topped thunderstorms will develop along/ahead of the cold front
this afternoon as it moves east-southeastward. Modestly curved
low-level hodographs and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support clusters/bands of convection, with isolated damaging wind gusts
possible where low-level lapse rates can become steepened. However,
poor mid-level lapse rates and generally weak instability are
expected to limit updraft strength and the overall severe threat.

...Upper Midwest...
While low-level moisture will remain quite meager, cold temperatures
aloft and very weak MUCAPE may support a few lightning flashes late
this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast MN into
northeast IA and southwest WI near a southeastward-moving front.
Gusty winds may occur with this convection in the presence of a
well-mixed boundary layer and strengthening northwesterly winds
aloft. But with minimal instability forecast, the overall severe
threat is expected to remain low.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051954
SWODY1
SPC AC 051953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon
across the eastern Carolinas.

...20z Update...
Latest radar and lightning data shows a band of pre-frontal
convection moving across the Carolinas and far southeast VA. This
activity will continue to pose an isolated wind damage threat for
the next few hours before moving offshore by early evening. 5% wind probabilities have been adjusted accordingly, and the 10% general
thunder probability highlights regions with remaining MUCAPE ahead
of the approaching cold front. See the previous discussion below for
additional details.

..Moore.. 04/05/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026/

...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
Within the base of a broad upper trough centered over eastern Canada
and the Great Lakes, multiple subtle mid-level perturbations over
the Midwest will develop east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic
and Carolinas today. Ongoing showers will accompany an east/southeastward-moving surface cold front, but some cloud breaks
will allow for filtered pre-frontal heating, particularly across the
coastal plain over the eastern Carolinas and far southeast VA.

Up to 100-300 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across the coastal
Mid-Atlantic, with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern
Carolinas where greater heating should occur. A broken line of
low-topped thunderstorms will develop along/ahead of the cold front
this afternoon as it moves east-southeastward. Modestly curved
low-level hodographs and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support clusters/bands of convection, with isolated damaging wind gusts
possible where low-level lapse rates can become steepened. However,
poor mid-level lapse rates and generally weak instability are
expected to limit updraft strength and the overall severe threat.

...Upper Midwest...
While low-level moisture will remain quite meager, cold temperatures
aloft and very weak MUCAPE may support a few lightning flashes late
this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast MN into
northeast IA and southwest WI near a southeastward-moving front.
Gusty winds may occur with this convection in the presence of a
well-mixed boundary layer and strengthening northwesterly winds
aloft. But with minimal instability forecast, the overall severe
threat is expected to remain low.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060543
SWODY1
SPC AC 060541

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the
Florida Peninsula, and portions of the Four Corners, northern
Rockies, and eastern Great Lakes. No severe threat is forecast.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will begin exiting the Northeast and
overspreading the Atlantic as another mid-level trough impinges on
the Pacific Northwest and a lower amplitude impulse traverses the
Southwest today. Much of the northern, central, and eastern CONUS
will be dominated by surface high pressure while surface lee
troughing, with dry low-level trajectories, takes place over the
southern High Plains. As such, convective potential will be limited
over the much of the U.S. with few exceptions. A few embedded
mid-level impulses, accompanied by cooler temperatures aloft, will
foster enough lift amid scant buoyancy to encourage a few lightning
flashes across the northern Rockies, Four Corners region, and the
eastern Great Lakes today.

The best chance for organized thunderstorm potential will be over
the FL Peninsula, where ample low-level moisture will exist in
proximity to a stalled frontal boundary. Afternoon peak heating will
support scattered thunderstorm development amid tall, thin CAPE
profiles, but relatively poor vertical wind shear. While strong
gusts may accompany some of the deeper storm cores, the threat for
severe storms appears too low for the inclusion of severe
wind-driven probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/06/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061250
SWODY1
SPC AC 061248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the
Florida Peninsula, and portions of the Four Corners, northern
Rockies, and eastern Great Lakes. While a few strong storms may
occur across the central/southern Florida Peninsula, organized
severe potential is expected to remain low.

...Synopsis...
The East will remain influenced by longwave troughing, while
westerly quasi-zonal upper flow prevails elsewhere. Much of the
northern, central, and eastern CONUS will be dominated by surface
high pressure while surface lee troughing, with dry low-level
trajectories, takes place over the southern High Plains.
Thunderstorms are expected mainly this afternoon across the Florida
Peninsula. A few embedded mid-level impulses, accompanied by cooler temperatures aloft, will foster enough lift amid scant buoyancy to
encourage a few lightning flashes across the northern Rockies, Four
Corners region, and the eastern Great Lakes today.

...Central/southern Florida Peninsula...
Ample insolation/heating should occur today along and south of the slow-southward progressing front. This heating combined with
easterly low-level winds should focus convergence and scattered
thunderstorm development this afternoon across the interior
peninsula. With the upstream shortwave trough not influencing the
region until later tonight, mid-level lapse rates will remain
relatively poor with weak deep-layer shear. Regardless, steepening
low-level lapse rates should lead to increasing storm coverage and
intensity this afternoon, particularly across the interior, and a
few of these pulse-type storms could produce strong
downburst-related gusty winds. However, it currently appears that severe-caliber wind gust potential will remain limited given the
marginality of the overall scenario.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/06/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061618
SWODY1
SPC AC 061616

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the
Florida Peninsula and portions of the Southwest, Pacific Northwest,
and eastern Great Lakes. While a few strong storms may occur across
the central/southern Florida Peninsula, organized severe potential
should remain low.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Mean longwave troughing will remain over the eastern COUNS today,
while a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances eastward across the
Gulf towards the FL Peninsula by late tonight. At the surface, high
pressure centered over the southern Plains to TN/OH Valleys will
maintain offshore low-level trajectories and limited low-level
moisture over a large majority of the CONUS. Still, isolated
lightning flashes may occur today across parts of the eastern Great
Lakes, Southwest, and Pacific Northwest in association with weak
mid-level perturbations amid the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and
modest lift.

Greater low-level moisture (mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints)
will remain confined along/south of a cold front draped across the
central FL Peninsula. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon across central/south FL as
daytime heating erodes lingering MLCIN, especially across interior
areas. With the low-amplitude shortwave trough remaining well to the
west over the Gulf through the day, weak low/mid-level winds and
meager deep-layer shear over land will likely limit updraft
organization and severe potential. Still, occasional strong/gusty
downburst winds may occur with the more robust cores as low-level
lapse rates become steepened with continued diurnal heating.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/06/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061922
SWODY1
SPC AC 061920

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the
Florida Peninsula and portions of the Southwest, Pacific Northwest,
and eastern Great Lakes. While a few strong storms may occur across
the central/southern Florida Peninsula, organized severe potential
should remain low.

...20z Update...
No changes are need to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 04/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Mean longwave troughing will remain over the eastern COUNS today,
while a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances eastward across the
Gulf towards the FL Peninsula by late tonight. At the surface, high
pressure centered over the southern Plains to TN/OH Valleys will
maintain offshore low-level trajectories and limited low-level
moisture over a large majority of the CONUS. Still, isolated
lightning flashes may occur today across parts of the eastern Great
Lakes, Southwest, and Pacific Northwest in association with weak
mid-level perturbations amid the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and
modest lift.

Greater low-level moisture (mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints)
will remain confined along/south of a cold front draped across the
central FL Peninsula. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon across central/south FL as
daytime heating erodes lingering MLCIN, especially across interior
areas. With the low-amplitude shortwave trough remaining well to the
west over the Gulf through the day, weak low/mid-level winds and
meager deep-layer shear over land will likely limit updraft
organization and severe potential. Still, occasional strong/gusty
downburst winds may occur with the more robust cores as low-level
lapse rates become steepened with continued diurnal heating.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 070047
SWODY1
SPC AC 070046

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms remain possible this evening across portions of
the Pacific Northwest, Desert Southwest, and Florida Peninsula.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough continues to progress across the Northeast,
with upper ridging persisting over the Northwest, and a
low-amplitude impulse impinging on the Southwest this evening.
Across the Northwest and Southwest, colder air aloft is supporting
scant buoyancy, which will continue to promote the potential for a
couple of lightning flashes through early tonight. Thunderstorms
continue to benefit from a moist, unstable environment across the
central and southern FL Peninsula. Storms should gradually weaken
this evening with the onset of nocturnal cooling.

..Squitieri.. 04/07/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 070455
SWODY1
SPC AC 070454

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across parts
of the Florida Peninsula, the southern Rockies, and northern High
Plains. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject over the Atlantic while another
pronounced mid-level trough rapidly traverses the northern Rockies
today. Meanwhile, multiple low-amplitude impulses traversing
relatively zonal upper flow will overspread the Southwest and the FL
Peninsula. Across the Southern Rockies, enough lift amid cool air
aloft (and thus scant buoyancy) should accompany the aforementioned low-amplitude mid-level impulse to support isolated to potentially
scattered thunderstorm development. Scattered thunderstorms may also
develop across the FL Peninsula along sea-breeze boundaries given a
moist, heated low-level airmass. Scattered high-based/low-topped
storms are likely across the northern High Plains with the approach
of the upper trough. Storms will develop atop a deep and dry
boundary layer, but with scant buoyancy. Given the dry boundary
layer, gusty conditions may accompany the stronger storms. However,
the severe wind threat currently appears too low for the
introduction of a Category 1/Marginal risk at this time.

..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/07/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071235
SWODY1
SPC AC 071234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across parts
of the Florida Peninsula, the southern Rockies, and northern High
Plains. Severe thunderstorm potential is currently expected to
remain low.

...Synopsis...
Split/nearly zonal upper-level flow will prevail across most of the
CONUS to the south of an amplifying trough from the Canadian Rockies southeastward toward the northern High Plains, and in the wake of
low-amplitude troughs crossing both New England and Florida today.

...Florida Peninsula...
Scattered thunderstorms should increase across the Florida Peninsula
into the afternoon, influenced by the passing mid-level trough and
sea-breeze convergence in the presence of a very moist airmass. A
few of the storms across the southern Florida Peninsula could
produce locally strong thunderstorm winds, but severe potential
should remain relatively low.

...Northern High Plains...
Isolated high-based storms are expected across the northern High
Plains, including eastern Montana into western North Dakota, aided
by the approach of the aforementioned upper trough. Storms will
develop atop a relatively dry/well-mixed boundary layer, but with
very limited buoyancy overall. Given the dry boundary layer and
strengthening mid-tropospheric winds, strong and gusty winds may
accompany this convection during the late afternoon until around
sunset.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/07/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071622
SWODY1
SPC AC 071620

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms should occur today
across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula,
southern/central Rockies/High Plains, and northern High Plains.
Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-southeastward today from
British Columbia/Alberta to the northern Rockies/High Plains. Strong
mid-level winds will accompany this shortwave trough, and a
deep/well-mixed boundary layer is expected to develop across parts
of eastern MT and vicinity by this afternoon with diurnal heating.
However, low-level moisture will remain quite limited, with surface
dewpoints currently in the 20s to mid 30s across the northern High
Plains. This will hinder the development of any more than weak
MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon, although high-based convection
capable of producing occasional lightning flashes and strong/gusty
winds may occur. Given expectations for moisture and related
instability to remain quite meager, have not included low severe
wind probabilities across the northern High Plains with this update.

A weak mid-level shortwave trough will continue to advance eastward
across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. Isolated to perhaps
scattered thunderstorms remain possible, mainly across parts of
south FL along and south of a convectively reinforced front. Prior
convection and ongoing cloud cover across the central/southern FL
Peninsula will probably hinder more robust diurnal heating this
afternoon. Still, locally gusty downdraft winds and small hail may
occur with the stronger cores that can develop, before convection
eventually focuses offshore by this evening.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms also appear possible
across parts of the southern/central Rockies and adjacent High
Plains through this evening, but weak instability across these
regions are expected to preclude severe thunderstorms.

..Gleason.. 04/07/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071947
SWODY1
SPC AC 071946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms remain possible across
parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula, southern/central
Rockies/High Plains, and northern High Plains today and tonight.
Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low.

...20z Update...
The only change was to trim thunder probabilities over parts of the
southern FL Peninsula. Isolated storms remain possible south of the
front over the Keys tonight. While a brief stronger thunderstorm
remains possible across south FL, weak mid-level lapse rates and
modest vertical shear will continue to limit severe potential before
convection moves offshore this afternoon. Otherwise, the outlook
remains unchanged, see the previous discussion.

..Lyons.. 04/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-southeastward today from
British Columbia/Alberta to the northern Rockies/High Plains. Strong
mid-level winds will accompany this shortwave trough, and a
deep/well-mixed boundary layer is expected to develop across parts
of eastern MT and vicinity by this afternoon with diurnal heating.
However, low-level moisture will remain quite limited, with surface
dewpoints currently in the 20s to mid 30s across the northern High
Plains. This will hinder the development of any more than weak
MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon, although high-based convection
capable of producing occasional lightning flashes and strong/gusty
winds may occur. Given expectations for moisture and related
instability to remain quite meager, have not included low severe
wind probabilities across the northern High Plains with this update.

A weak mid-level shortwave trough will continue to advance eastward
across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. Isolated to perhaps
scattered thunderstorms remain possible, mainly across parts of
south FL along and south of a convectively reinforced front. Prior
convection and ongoing cloud cover across the central/southern FL
Peninsula will probably hinder more robust diurnal heating this
afternoon. Still, locally gusty downdraft winds and small hail may
occur with the stronger cores that can develop, before convection
eventually focuses offshore by this evening.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms also appear possible
across parts of the southern/central Rockies and adjacent High
Plains through this evening, but weak instability across these
regions are expected to preclude severe thunderstorms.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 080102
SWODY1
SPC AC 080100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible tonight over the northern and
southern High Plains. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough continues to progress across the northern
Rockies, providing enough mechanical lift amid cool temperatures
aloft to support isolated high-based thunderstorms atop a dry
boundary layer. A low-amplitude mid-level impulse will also continue
to traverse the northern Rockies, supporting scattered lightning
flashes given the presence of scant buoyancy. These storms should
gradually diminish through the evening as boundary-layer
stabilization from nocturnal cooling takes place.

..Squitieri.. 04/08/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 080558
SWODY1
SPC AC 080556

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms may develop across western into central
Kansas this afternoon and evening, with an instance or two of severe
wind and hail possible.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse the north-central CONUS today,
supporting modest surface troughing across the Plains states.
Despite initially meager low-level moisture return, storms may
develop along a frontal boundary over the central Plains by late
afternoon. A few of which may be strong. Otherwise, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms may develop along sea-breeze boundaries over
the FL Peninsula, as was with the upper trough over the Upper MS
Valley. A couple of lightning flashes may also occur over northern
CA surrounding areas as an upper trough impinges on the coastline.

...Central into western Kansas...
By afternoon peak heating, clear skies and robust heating of the
boundary layer will result in convective temperatures being reached
along/just ahead of a frontal boundary, which is poised to drift
southward through late afternoon. Convective initiation is likely
around or after 20Z, when 30+ F T/Td spreads should be in place.
High-based multicells will be the likely storm mode, as strong
northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to elongated, straight
hodographs. The strongest storms may produce a couple of severe
gusts and perhaps an instance or two of hail.

..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/08/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081247
SWODY1
SPC AC 081245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop across western and central
Kansas late this afternoon and early evening, with hail and locally
severe wind gusts possible.

...Western/central Kansas...
The region will be glancingly influenced by an eastward-progressing
upper trough over the northern Plains. Ample insolation and robust
heating of a boundary layer, characterized by limited moisture (40s
F dewpoints), will result in convective temperatures being reached
by peak heating near a southeastward-moving front. Isolated to
widely scattered convective initiation is expected around or after
20Z, when 30+ F T/Td spreads will be in place. High-based multicells
will be the likely storm mode, as strong northwesterly flow aloft
will contribute to elongated, straight hodographs. The strongest
storms may produce hail and severe wind gusts on an isolated basis.

...Southern Florida...
A couple of stronger storms with gusty winds could again occur
today, mainly across the southeast part of the Florida Peninsula
this afternoon. Any severe threat should remain relatively marginal
and localized given the overall setup and thermodynamic environment.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/08/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081612
SWODY1
SPC AC 081610

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of Kansas
late this afternoon and early evening, with hail and locally severe
wind gusts possible.

...Kansas...
A strong upper trough/low over the northern Plains and south-central
Canada will move eastward today towards the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes, and eventually spread into Ontario by late tonight. At the
surface, an occluded low will develop eastward in tandem with the
upper trough/low, while a cold front extending southwestward into
the central Plains continues moving slowly southward through this
evening. Limited low-level moisture is expected to exist ahead of
the front by late this afternoon across KS, with late morning
surface observations and short-term guidance both suggesting surface
dewpoints will likely remain in the mid 30s to no more than mid 40s.
A well-mixed boundary layer will likely develop with ample daytime
heating across the narrow warm sector, with MLCAPE perhaps peaking
in the 250-500 J/kg range around 21-23Z in parts of western/central
KS. MLCIN is forecast to become minimal in this time frame, and weak
low-level convergence along the front may be enough to aid isolated thunderstorm development across this area.

While stronger flow aloft associated with the upper-level trough/low
will remain displaced to the north of KS, modest enhancement to the
mid-level westerlies may still support around 25-35 kt of deep-layer
shear. This should be sufficient for some updraft organization with
any thunderstorms that can develop and be sustained. The primary
uncertainty remains how many thunderstorms will form given overall
modest large-scale ascent amid weak instability. Still, some risk
for isolated hail and locally severe gusts remains apparent with the
strongest multicell cores. The Marginal Risk has been maintained
across KS with no changes.

...Central/South Florida...
20-30 kt mid-level westerlies will overlie weak low-level easterlies
today across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula.
Resultant modest effective bulk shear would conditionally support
updraft organization, but poor mid-level lapse rates noted on the
12Z TBW and KEY observed soundings should generally limit updraft
strength. Still, isolated to locally scattered thunderstorms should
develop this afternoon, and preferentially focus along/near the
Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Small hail and gusty winds may occur with
the strongest cores, but the overall severe threat appears too
limited/isolated to include any probabilities at this time.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/08/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081948
SWODY1
SPC AC 081946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of Kansas
late this afternoon and early evening, with hail and locally severe
wind gusts possible.

...20z Update KS...
The prior outlook remains valid with no changes. High-based
thunderstorms remain possible late this afternoon and this evening
ahead of the cold front in western and central KS. Steep low and
mid-level lapse rates should be sufficient for modest
destabilization amid limited boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in
the 40s F). Despite the limited buoyancy, a few stronger multi-cell
clusters capable of isolated severe gusts and some small hail are
possible.

Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms remain possible across parts of
FL, the West Coast and northern Plains through tonight. Weak
buoyancy and poor overlap with vertical shear should limit severe
potential. See the previous discussion for more information.

..Lyons.. 04/08/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026/

...Kansas...
A strong upper trough/low over the northern Plains and south-central
Canada will move eastward today towards the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes, and eventually spread into Ontario by late tonight. At the
surface, an occluded low will develop eastward in tandem with the
upper trough/low, while a cold front extending southwestward into
the central Plains continues moving slowly southward through this
evening. Limited low-level moisture is expected to exist ahead of
the front by late this afternoon across KS, with late morning
surface observations and short-term guidance both suggesting surface
dewpoints will likely remain in the mid 30s to no more than mid 40s.
A well-mixed boundary layer will likely develop with ample daytime
heating across the narrow warm sector, with MLCAPE perhaps peaking
in the 250-500 J/kg range around 21-23Z in parts of western/central
KS. MLCIN is forecast to become minimal in this time frame, and weak
low-level convergence along the front may be enough to aid isolated thunderstorm development across this area.

While stronger flow aloft associated with the upper-level trough/low
will remain displaced to the north of KS, modest enhancement to the
mid-level westerlies may still support around 25-35 kt of deep-layer
shear. This should be sufficient for some updraft organization with
any thunderstorms that can develop and be sustained. The primary
uncertainty remains how many thunderstorms will form given overall
modest large-scale ascent amid weak instability. Still, some risk
for isolated hail and locally severe gusts remains apparent with the
strongest multicell cores. The Marginal Risk has been maintained
across KS with no changes.

...Central/South Florida...
20-30 kt mid-level westerlies will overlie weak low-level easterlies
today across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula.
Resultant modest effective bulk shear would conditionally support
updraft organization, but poor mid-level lapse rates noted on the
12Z TBW and KEY observed soundings should generally limit updraft
strength. Still, isolated to locally scattered thunderstorms should
develop this afternoon, and preferentially focus along/near the
Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Small hail and gusty winds may occur with
the strongest cores, but the overall severe threat appears too
limited/isolated to include any probabilities at this time.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 090058
SWODY1
SPC AC 090056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Discussion...
The Marginal Risk across western/central Kansas was removed with
this outlook update. A cluster of thunderstorm activity continues to
shift south and east, but has largely remained below severe limits.
This activity is expected to further weaken over the next couple of
hours with the loss of daytime heating and gradually waning MLCAPE.

..Thornton.. 04/09/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 090559
SWODY1
SPC AC 090557

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Areas of hail and strong wind gusts are expected this afternoon and
evening in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into
Kansas. Locally very large hail is possible.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level pattern across the US today will consist of a
deepening trough across the Western US with enhanced westerly flow
extending across the central/northern US within the base of a
broader upper-low across portions of Canada. Within the broad area
of westerly flow, several disturbances will rotate across the
northern Plains into the Great Lakes Region.

At the surface, a warm front will lift northward through the day
across the central Plains, extending as far north as southern NE/IA.
As a surface high builds to the north across the Dakotas, this
boundary will sag southward as a cold front through the late
afternoon/evening. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected
along this east/west oriented boundary and as well across the
dryline further west into the OK/TX Panhandles. The primary threat
will be for large to very large hail and damaging wind. A more
isolated risk for large hail will extend southward across the
dryline into western Kansas/OK/TX Panhandles.

...Central Plains...
South of the aforementioned boundary across central KS into
southeastern NE, low to mid-50s dew points in combination with
strong daytime heating will yield moderate MLCAPE values around
1000-1500 J/kg. Thunderstorm activity should develop along the warm
front around 18z and increase with the incoming upper-level wave and
cooling aloft. Forecast soundings along and south of the boundary in
Kansas depict steep low to mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km) and deep
layer shear around 40 kts, supportive of supercells capable of large
to very large hail(some 2+ inches in diameter)and severe wind. The
Slight was extended southward into central Kansas to account for
potential for development into this region and continuation of the
large to very large hail threat.

With west to northwest winds aloft, all these storms may eventually
merge into the evening, propagating southeastward across much of
eastern KS into northwest MO. The warm boundary layer, combined with
cold downdraft material, will likely support scattered damaging
gusts.

...Northern California/Oregon Coasts...
As the upper-level low approaches the West Coast, forcing for ascent
will overspread portions of northern California into southern Oregon
with scattered thunderstorm development expected by the late
morning/afternoon. Sufficient moisture and MLCAPE will extend inland overlapping deep layer shear 20-25 kts and steep low to mid-level
lapse rates to support potential for strong to severe wind gusts. As
such, a 5% wind area was introduced with this outlook to cover this
potential. Some instances of small hail will also be possible, owing
to steep lapse rates and cooling temperatures aloft.

..Thornton/Chalmers.. 04/09/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091252
SWODY1
SPC AC 091250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND LOWER/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected late this afternoon and evening across Kansas, southeast
Nebraska into northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa. Isolated severe
storms may also occur across the south-central High Plains and
northern California/western Oregon.

...Central Plains and Lower/Middle Missouri Valley...
A frontal zone will focus and shift northward toward across Kansas
toward the Kansas/Nebraska and Iowa/Missouri border vicinities
today, before gradually accelerating southeastward tonight. The
region will be influenced later today by a secondary shortwave
trough digging southeastward over the northern Plains, with the
persistence of cyclonic and somewhat strengthening mid/upper-level
flow. On the nose of south-southwesterly lower tropospheric winds,
low-level moisture will diurnally increase along/south of the front,
offset by ample mixing across Kansas, resulting in surface dewpoints
mainly in the lower/middle 50s F into peak heating. Beneath very
steep mid-level lapse rates, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE values are
expected near/south of the front.

After some early day thunderstorms, more intense surface-based
thunderstorm development should occur as early as 22-23z/5-6pm CDT
near the boundary including portions of northern Kansas/southeast
Nebraska to the Iowa/Missouri border region, with other more
isolated and higher-based storms possible across western Kansas and
the nearby High Plains in vicinity of the lee trough/surface low.

Moderately strong westerlies will reside along/north of the
boundary, with 40+ kt effective shear supporting supercells capable
of large hail, potentially some in excess of 2 inches in diameter.
Some tornado potential may exist mainly across northeast Kansas/far
southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri near the boundary, but
this overall potential will tend to be mitigated by modest-caliber
moisture and the influence of diurnal mixing. Severe winds are also
possible into evening as storms tend to cluster and spread/increase east-southeastward during the evening, although the modest early
season moisture and nocturnal influences will lead to a diminished
intensity trend into late evening.

...Northern California/western Oregon...
As the upper-level low approaches the West Coast, forcing for ascent
will overspread portions of northern California into southern Oregon
with scattered thunderstorm development expected into afternoon.
Sufficient moisture and CAPE will exist inland beneath strengthening
deep-layer southwesterly winds ahead of the trough. As lapse rates
steepen and flow aloft increases, storms may be capable of strong to
severe wind gusts and possibly some hail.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/09/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091630
SWODY1
SPC AC 091628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind
gusts are expected late this afternoon and evening across parts of
Kansas, southeast Nebraska, and northwest Missouri. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also occur across portions of the south-central
High Plains and northern California/southwest Oregon.

...Southern High Plains into the Central Plains and Lower/Mid
Missouri Valley...
Ongoing precipitation/thunderstorms and related cloud cover across north-central/northeast KS into southeast NE/southwest IA is being
aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection in the vicinity of a
surface front. Current expectations are for this activity to
gradually diminish in coverage as it shifts eastward into the
northwest MO/southern IA. In its wake, daytime heating may be
hampered a bit by residual cloudiness across much of
north-central/northeast KS. Even so, continued northward low-level
moisture advection is anticipated across the southern/central Plains
through the afternoon, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper
40s to low/mid 50s. This, coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates
and cold temperatures aloft, will aid in the development of moderate instability (MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg) along/south of a front
draped generally west to east across northern KS/MO.

Stronger ascent aloft and enhanced westerly flow at mid/upper levels
will remain mostly displaced to the north of the central Plains
today, as multiple mid-level perturbations rotate through mean
mid/upper-level troughing over central/eastern Canada. Still, most
guidance continues to suggest that minimal MLCIN will exist in the
vicinity of the front in north-central/northeast KS and southeast NE
by 22-23Z as surface temperatures warm into the 70s/low 80s.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across
this area by late afternoon/early evening, with modest
south-southwesterly low-level winds veering to west-northwesterly at
mid/upper levels supporting 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear.

Initial convective development will likely be supercellular and pose
a threat for mainly large hail (isolated 2+ inches in diameter
possible). Fairly large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads with a
well-mixed boundary layer and related high cloud bases render
considerable uncertainty regarding tornado potential. But, some risk
for a tornado or two may focus along/near the front through early
evening as effective SRH gradually increases in tandem with a
strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet. Otherwise, the risk
for severe/damaging winds may gradually increase through mid evening
as thunderstorms tend to cluster/grow modestly upscale. But, the
severe wind risk will likely become more limited by late evening
with the loss of daytime heating and increasing MLCIN with
southward/eastward extent.

Isolated thunderstorms may also develop this afternoon farther
southwest across the central/southern High Plains along and east of
a sharpening surface dryline/lee trough. Overall convective coverage
remains highly uncertain given nebulous/weak large-scale ascent this
far south. Still, some risk for occasional hail and severe gusts
should exist with any sustained cells or clusters that can develop
and spread east-southeastward through the late afternoon/early
evening.

...Northern California/Southwest Oregon...
As an upper-level low over the eastern Pacific approaches the West
Coast today, large-scale ascent will overspread portions of northern
CA into southern OR with scattered thunderstorm development expected
into afternoon. Sufficient moisture and instability should exist
inland beneath strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds ahead of
the trough to support semi-organized convection. As low-level lapse
rates gradually steepen and flow aloft increases, this activity may
be capable of producing isolated strong to severe gusts and possibly
some hail.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/09/2026

$$

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